The disappearing Winters

[Snowly does it]

All toys removed due to misuse against the manufacturers recommendation.

Yes, Winters since I finished at University have been generally disappointing - 95/96 aside, but I think as well as the obvious effects of the generally warmer climate that has been the story of the last 20 years there is a degree of fatalism to be accounted for - we expect winter to disappear because we expect the planet to warm at the prescribed rate, hence there is far more hysteria over a double figure winter's day, which is far far from unusual, than there is over frost of -4 which represents an equal lurch the other side of normal.

The true story is not one of mild becoming milder - patently that is not the case or maxima records would be going nine to the dozen, its that cold is contracting or not occuring. The question is how much of that is down to climate change shifting the synoptic pattern to 'impossible', how much is down to the usual factors of luck or otherwise required in a marginal snow climate and how much is down to 'natural' forcing - El Nino, La Nina etc (bearing in mind those themselves could be unnaturally prolonged or occuring due to human influence)

Is a sustained arctic blast possible for the UK? Tricky to call, butit looks increasingly likely that the synoptic patterns required are moving (for the UK) into the 'impossible' column - alongside 1070mb HPs, Hurricanes and the like

[Jonnie G]

All toys removed due to misuse against the manufacturers recommendation.

Yes, Winters since I finished at University have been generally disappointing - 95/96 aside, but I think as well as the obvious effects of the generally warmer climate that has been the story of the last 20 years there is a degree of fatalism to be accounted for - we expect winter to disappear because we expect the planet to warm at the prescribed rate, hence there is far more hysteria over a double figure winter's day, which is far far from unusual, than there is over frost of -4 which represents an equal lurch the other side of normal.

The true story is not one of mild becoming milder - patently that is not the case or maxima records would be going nine to the dozen, its that cold is contracting or not occuring. The question is how much of that is down to climate change shifting the synoptic pattern to 'impossible', how much is down to the usual factors of luck or otherwise required in a marginal snow climate and how much is down to 'natural' forcing - El Nino, La Nina etc (bearing in mind those themselves could be unnaturally prolonged or occuring due to human influence)

Is a sustained arctic blast possible for the UK? Tricky to call, butit looks increasingly likely that the synoptic patterns required are moving (for the UK) into the 'impossible' column - alongside 1070mb HPs, Hurricanes and the like

Is a sustained arctic blast possible still? Or to put it another way is sustained northern blocking especially over Greenland possible still? I think it is, as I subscribe to the point of view that we have experienced a synoptic flip similar to those of the past which have abruptly flipped back, and this synoptic flip has coincided with global warming which has amplified the effect. I was astonished to discover that the 5 year average rolling January CET has only just this January surpassed it's all time high......... recorded in January 1737! Three years later and the synoptics had flipped, with a January CET of -3C, and one of the harshest winters ever recorded. So you never know, but I think there may be something in the suggestion that cfc destruction of the Ozone layer has resulted in excess stratospheric cooling and associated strong formation of a polar vortex over Greenland.

[jemtom]

Interesting stuff. Data can be manipulated in an infinate amount of ways to 'prove' one thing or another but IMO taking a ten year rolling mean as John has done above is the way to go. Undeniable that we are/have warmed up since the 40's. Is it a blip?? I believe it is but I doubt any of us here will be around to see it go into reverse proper.

However I am also convinced we are in a blip within a blip. The past 12 years are not in keeping with the downward trend, it's just too abrupt. The next 12 years years will be a marked improvement but probably only in terms of a couple of 1995's and maybe an 80's winter thrown in for good measure within the time period.

Talking of 'data manipulation', taking the Manc Indicies posted aboove, the last time we had a severe winter indicie of sub-100 over a three year period was between 1987-88 and 1989-90. Therefore, in the past 18 years we haven't had 3 consecutively as poor winters as back then!

I know w

hat I mean I'm not just very good at describing things :lol:

Tommy Tortoise resents the implication that he might have been manipulating data. He has however been manipulating a bananna today - rather successfully in fact...

Edited February 7, 2008 by jemtom

[Snowly does it]

Is a sustained arctic blast possible still? Or to put it another way is sustained northern blocking especially over Greenland possible still? I think it is, as I subscribe to the point of view that we have experienced a synoptic flip similar to those of the past which have abruptly flipped back, and this synoptic flip has coincided with global warming which has amplified the effect. I was astonished to discover that the 5 year average rolling January CET has only just this January surpassed it's all time high......... recorded in January 1737! Three years later and the synoptics had flipped, with a January CET of -3C, and one of the harshest winters ever recorded. So you never know, but I think there may be something in the suggestion that cfc destruction of the Ozone layer has resulted in excess stratospheric cooling and associated strong formation of a polar vortex over Greenland.

Well, Northern blocking can still be seen, just not at the right time of year for us. OK, we can just about blame 06/07 on El Nino and 07/08 on La Nina, however if we are getting similar results in a neutral ENSO or weak EN/LN then we are in some not inconsiderable difficulty for winter fun and games.

05/06 in hindsight was pretty impressive, lol

[ribster]

Interesting in that only the other day I wrote this out from some stats when having a spare hour or two. Its just January but I suspect the other 'winter' months might well be pretty similar.

Is January getting less cold?

Data for this area seems to suggest its pretty undeniable that it is getting less cold

I have data from 1942 for RAF Finningley until it closed in 1995, and then my own data, (direct comparison when Finningley was open allow me to believe my data is pretty close to what Finningley would be showing), from January 1997 to the present time.

Although I kept no records I did run comparison checks over about 18 months of my thermometers with those at Finningley and, they were within 0.2C on average through that time.

I’ve done a ten year mean for Finningley(in some cases less than 10 years but with a note to that effect) and the same for my site.

1942-1950(8years)=3.2C(one years data that of 1943 is missing)

1951-1960=3.2C

1961-1970=3.5C

1971-1980=3.7C

1981-1990=3.9C

1991-closure 1995=4.0C

1997-2000(my data)=5.3C

combined1991-2000=4.6C

2001-2008(8 years)=5.4C

The whole long term average from 1942-2008=3.9C

Taking the 10 year rolling mean shows this

3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 3.7, 3.9 with similar for the other rolling means at 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 years.

To me this shows that the mean 10 year rolling average has increased by 0.7C in the period 1942-2008.

I’ve not looked at any other months, winter, spring, summer or autumn but suspect a rather similar view will appear.

So in the same area over a 60 year+ period the mean temperature for January has risen by 0.7C, not that different from oft quoted world increases over a similar time span? not sure !!! about that comment.

Looking at snow in January then the long term average for Finningley, just prior to its closure, over a 48 year period, was snow falling on 7 days and lying on 5 days(09z observation and >half cover).

The data for my site shows <2 and <1 respectively over the 12 years I have got January data.

Interesting statistics and I make no additional comment.

While the statistics/records undeniably show the current picture and trend, in terms of a history of the planets weather, they show but the merest blink in weather history terms. I would be far more interested to know the climate story for 1000 years ago, 5000 years ago etc. Once we get to having that level of records/statistics we will know much more and possibly be able to suggest what's around the corner - of course there will always be exceptions to the rule.

[Upgrade]

I am also convinced we are in a blip within a blip.

i know what you mean. our winters have warmed to the extent that these are the kinds of winters we should be expecting in 60 years, not now. they are much warmer than they should be even accounting for global warming.

[wysiwyg]

One interesting thing to note is that China has had its worst winter for many years and it would be interesting if it was possible to compare some sort of 'China CCT' with our CET records. My guess is that there is a balancing act going on here and we have just been on the wrong end of some rather unfortunate synoptics in the past few years. I'm not denying GW - the stats speak for themselves, but I don't think that a 0.6C rise in global temps is the culprit. Winter will return, be it because of a random event such as a large volcanic eruption, a meteor/comet strike or far more likely a shift to much more favourable synoptics due to normal statistical variance in our climate overriding any of the net increase in global temperatures (bear in mind that a) it is a mean value for the whole globe and, b ) the further back in the records you go the more holes there are in the reliability and availability of data.

It's tempting to link JH's very good analysis showing a 0.6C 'rise' with the reported 0.6C rise in global temperatures but I think it's really more of a coincidence and there will be other places on the globe that have seen larger temperature rises (Arctic/GL area) and others which have seen smaller/negative rises (Antarctic maybe).

This is not meant to be a GW post - just my thoughts on why I don't think winter is doomed based on my own interpretation of the myriad of data and considered opinions out there.

Wysi :lol:

Edited February 7, 2008 by wysiwyg

[PersianPaladin]

It's tempting to link JH's very good analysis showing a 0.6C 'rise' with the reported 0.6C rise in global temperatures but I think it's really more of a coincidence and there will be other places on the globe that have seen larger temperature rises (Arctic/GL area) and others which have seen smaller/negative rises (Antarctic maybe).

Thats a fair enough point; but I think given our location and nature of an island close to the gulf stream and an anamlously warming mass of ocean...I'd say we in Britain are pretty much at the 'front line' of the warming. Continental climates are always going to suffer more extremes and be affected less as they are further away from the energy power-houses of the oceans. Still...what I feel we are seeing are complex feedback mechanisms and extremes as weather systems attempt to adjust to the extra energy in the system.

[reef]

As another disappointing Winter draws to a close is it really worth calling December Jan and Feb winter months anymore???

Looking at the average temperatures for Sheffield http://www.sheffieldweather.co.uk/MONTHLYAIRAVERAGE.htm Jan Feb and Dec are now looking like temps you'd get in late Autumn or early Spring. Frost and Snow events are very similar to what us oldies would associate with late Autumn or early Spring. Last Winter I went through without scraping my car once.

You could effectively extend Summer and push Autumn back and Spring forward and remove or and then shorten offical Winter. What do you think??

My readings only go back to 1984, but the trend is almost identical to your own. As mentioned by snowmaiden, the mild hasnt really got much milder, its just that the cold is less cold and also less common.

The period 1984-1987 was unquestionably snowy. After 1988 we then saw a decline in cold, though topplers and the odd more potent event (Feb 1991, Feb 1994, Dec 1995 etc) still remained. 1997 onwards then saw a change again. From then on it seems it has become incredibly difficult just to get a cold winter month. Potent events dont really occur at all now and even the topplers which always proved reliable for here have gradually become none-events. Just to cap it off though, recent winters have seen a reduction in the number of frosts. At this rate, what we consider winter will be all but extinct here.

[keithtod43]

My readings only go back to 1984, but the trend is almost identical to your own. As mentioned by snowmaiden, the mild hasnt really got much milder, its just that the cold is less cold and also less common.

The period 1984-1987 was unquestionably snowy. After 1988 we then saw a decline in cold, though topplers and the odd more potent event (Feb 1991, Feb 1994, Dec 1995 etc) still remained. 1997 onwards then saw a change again. From then on it seems it has become incredibly difficult just to get a cold winter month. Potent events dont really occur at all now and even the topplers which always proved reliable for here have gradually become none-events. Just to cap it off though, recent winters have seen a reduction in the number of frosts. At this rate, what we consider winter will be all but extinct here.

Look lets get out of this hysteria if we had more high pressure systems in january we have a lot more frosts, its just that we had a large azores high which has dominated our weather feeding constant swesterlies simple as that.

[sundog]

Look lets get out of this hysteria if we had more high pressure systems in january we have a lot more frosts, its just that we had a large azores high which has dominated our weather feeding constant swesterlies simple as that.

High pressure in winter doesnt always mean frost. One thing ive noticed about these winters is that any high pressures we get are often cloudy restricting frost. when i was a kid many of the high pressures in winter were clear ones giving us hard frosts.

[keithtod43]

High pressure in winter doesnt always mean frost. One thing ive noticed about these winters is that any high pressures we get are often cloudy restricting frost. when i was a kid many of the high pressures in winter were clear ones giving us hard frosts.Exactly because we had swesterly feed cloudly no frosts.

[wysiwyg]

Thats a fair enough point; but I think given our location and nature of an island close to the gulf stream and an anamlously warming mass of ocean...I'd say we in Britain are pretty much at the 'front line' of the warming. Continental climates are always going to suffer more extremes and be affected less as they are further away from the energy power-houses of the oceans. Still...what I feel we are seeing are complex feedback mechanisms and extremes as weather systems attempt to adjust to the extra energy in the system.

Yes I think you have put there exactly what I was trying to say but just couldn't get the words to fall correctly. It's the last point regarding extremes and fluctuations that I missed completely. The mind was willing - the fingers weren't - cheers PP :lol: .

[johnholmes]

It's tempting to link JH's very good analysis showing a 0.6C 'rise' with the reported 0.6C rise in global temperatures but I think it's really more of a coincidence and there will be other places on the globe that have seen larger temperature rises (Arctic/GL area) and others which have seen smaller/negative rises (Antarctic maybe).

could not agree more. Common sense or rather hind sight would have said leave that out.

My data is for more or less central England and spans over 60 years. I think the data undeniably shows FOR THIS AREA that January is less cold and snowy than it was 40-60 years ago.

As my original post quoted I make no other statement or comment so best to delete my reference to any comparison to global temperature changes.

[J10]

For here I have records over the past 10 years which is a reasonable time span. During this time span the average number of days of snow falling is around 8-9 per year. with big variations, with 18 in 2004-05 compared to 0 in 1999-2000 and 2007-08 (so Far).

How does this compare with previous times, well 1982 gave very heavy snow here, and there were other notable events in the 80s, 1991 saw 17 successive days of snow lying on the ground, nearly all of which would be a "Met Office Snow Day", while there was heavy snow in 1996.

So overall the downwards trend elsewhere is mirrored here but not to such great an extent in my opinion, until last week, NNW winds were quite productive for here, but if this source starts to fail us, then things are looking gloomy.

As for Monthly Comparisons

The Number of Snow Falling Days Per month in that time is

November 2

December 15

January 9

February 33

March 14

April 4

While of course this is only a snapshot in my location, this does confirm the well held belief than January is the most under performing month in the winter, with February doing much better, with December and even March doing better than January.

[damianslaw]

Yes its true that the majority of the last 20 winters have not delivered sustained winter cold, but we can still get the cold spells i think back to only late feb 05 and early mar 06.

Its all about synoptics.

The majority of the last 20 years winters have been dominated by the influence of the azores high which seems to have migrated more north in winter and with the polar jet further north and consequently we have often remained in the warm sector so to speak.

When we do get on the right side for cold we can still get the potent cold weather.

I am an optimist and whilst the trend for future winters will most probably be of a continued mild variety I also expect we will still see some potent winter weather and quite possibly a winter to rival the likes of 1995/96 - whilst nothing exceptional it will sure wake us up.

I think back to last year and the shock we got in late June and July and also the exceptional dry warm april, the synoptical pattern during such periods was not the norm, so why not the chance of getting not the norm synoptics in winters to come

[len]

Yes its true that the majority of the last 20 winters have not delivered sustained winter cold, but we can still get the cold spells i think back to only late feb 05 and early mar 06.

Its all about synoptics.................................

When we do get on the right side for cold we can still get the potent cold weather..............................

I think back to last year and the shock we got in late June and July and also the exceptional dry warm april, the synoptical pattern during such periods was not the norm, so why not the chance of getting not the norm synoptics in winters to come

Concerning potent cold; on the contrary, one of the most noticeable winter changes is that, even when the "the right" synoptics occur, they do not deliver cold as heretofor.

e.g Ice-days under cold advection (not inversions) have virtually ceased to be. They were widespread and usual with cold synoptics in the decades before the nineties.

I think the answer to your second point Damian, is that the winters have become as they are due to the overwhelming power of the Polar vortex (coupled with the Azores High) in the North Atlantic winter months. It is more consistently powerful these days. So it smashes down alternative random synoptic occurances which are still free to occur in the months when it relaxes.

The power of this Atlantic couplet virtually eliminates winter variability.

Len

[Nick F]

One interesting thing to note is that China has had its worst winter for many years and it would be interesting if it was possible to compare some sort of 'China CCT' with our CET records. My guess is that there is a balancing act going on here and we have just been on the wrong end of some rather unfortunate synoptics in the past few years. I'm not denying GW - the stats speak for themselves, but I don't think that a 0.6C rise in global temps is the culprit. Winter will return, be it because of a random event such as a large volcanic eruption, a meteor/comet strike or far more likely a shift to much more favourable synoptics due to normal statistical variance in our climate overriding any of the net increase in global temperatures (bear in mind that a) it is a mean value for the whole globe and, b ) the further back in the records you go the more holes there are in the reliability and availability of data.

As PP mentioned aswell, China has a different climatic regime to the UK, the northern half of China has a continental climate heavily influenced by the deep cold which affects Eastern Siberia in winter - so it's no wonder they are susceptible to harsh wintry weather sometimes, just as Canada and the far north of the US is a times. The UK with its maritime climate downwind of a large warm current of the Atlantic Gulf stream will, as ocean temps rise due to global warming, be at the forefront of any impacts caused by GW, as oceans tend to be the first to respond to global temp rises due to their large thermal capacity.

Large continental landmasses such as China/Eastern Asia will continue for a long while yet, to have harsh cold winters at times - but temperate maritime climates will be the first to notice the effects of global rises in temps if they continue.

[J07]

You could effectively extend Summer and push Autumn back and Spring forward and remove or and then shorten offical Winter. What do you think??

Extend summer? Nah. Summer is often going to be limited by aspects such as sunshine hours, strength of the sun (it's far, far too weak in September for that to be a summer month, IMO) as opposed to just temperature. Last autumn was odd, quite dry and mild for a long period, but I don't believe it really "extended" summer at all. There are natural limits that we can't overcome by increasing temperatures. I know in an exceptional year we may get 21C in October, that also I think doesn't extend summer- it's just an autumn bonus.

I've personally always considered mid/late May to be summer simply because of very mild/warm temperatures, extremely long days and decent sunshine hours with sun that actually has some kick to it (unlike September).

as ocean temps rise due to global warming, be at the forefront of any impacts caused by GW, as oceans tend to be the first to respond to global temp rises due to their large thermal capacity.

This makes not much sense to me. The cause of global warming is increased energy being trapped in the atmosphere, this leads to increased air temperatures. But I would expect that oceans would be the *last* to respond due to their high specific heat- in other words they can absorb a lot of this extra heat without increasing much in temperature.

I would have expected land masses to be more susceptible to change.

[snowblizzard]

Severe cold spells with significant snowfall during winter have been extremely rare in the Southern half of England during the past 100 years. Although when you talk to older people (in their seventies or eighties) they always say "when I was a youngster we had snow every winter and it was always bitterly cold" Absolute rubbish! During the past 100 years, winters in the South have been predominantly mild. Yes, there have been cold and sometimes extreme winter events with heavy snow, but even those rarely lasted more than a few days (1947 & 1963 obvious exceptions) We have to remember that we live on an island and we are surrounded by relatively warm water and the pravailing weather patterns that effect the UK run from West to East which invariably means mild damp air masses. Global warming will have an effect on the UK's climate and can only mean increased atlantic dominance and even milder winters. However, that doesn't mean to say that we will never experience another cold winter spell, if the set-up is right, ie Siberian or Scandinavian Highs with extreme cold pooling across the continent, we are likely to see daytime permafrost and wintry precipitation.

Edited February 8, 2008 by snowblizzard

[Nick F]

This makes not much sense to me. The cause of global warming is increased energy being trapped in the atmosphere, this leads to increased air temperatures. But I would expect that oceans would be the *last* to respond due to their high specific heat- in other words they can absorb a lot of this extra heat without increasing much in temperature.

I would have expected land masses to be more susceptible to change.

Yes, but the irony of what you say about oceans trapping heat, is that during winter the oceans are last to cool while landmasses cool rapidly in the long nights/short days of the higher latitudes, so the warmer the oceans due to the warmer atmosphere from GW - the warmer the maritime climates will be in winter, that is what I was implying?

[J07]

Yes, but the irony of what you say about oceans trapping heat, is that during winter the oceans are last to cool while landmasses cool rapidly in the long nights/short days of the higher latitudes, so the warmer the oceans due to the warmer atmosphere from GW - the warmer the maritime climates will be in winter, that is what I was implying?

Ha, yes that is what you were implying. I see your point now, sorry!

[Weather-history]

Here's an editorial from the Times of 30th January 1937, it mentions about the south of England not the greatest place to learn the beauty of snow.

Edited February 8, 2008 by Mr_Data

[jemtom]

It's worth taking a look at the daily cam pix from Uppsala Sweden thread that I've just started - Winters seem to be disappearing elsewhere to, perhaps even more dramatically than here.

[snowblizzard]

It's worth taking a look at the daily cam pix from Uppsala Sweden thread that I've just started - Winters seem to be disappearing elsewhere to, perhaps even more dramatically than here.

Absolutely right. Just look at the temperatures across Europe today at 4pm.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmett.gif

Even Sweden, Southern Norway & parts of Finland are actually above freezing!