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speedholt

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)

    Hello there and welcome to posting on Netweather :lol:

    My guess is that it won't have too much effect - it shows that our climate is warming and that our winters are likely to be warmer too!

    Two possible effects:

    1. Lower SSTs (sea surface temperatures) meaning that air would be slightly less warmed as it passes towards us.

    2. The hypothesis that the desalinasation of the Atlantic caused by fresh meltwater causes the Gulf Stream to shut down. It is known that salt levels, at least in part, determine the strength of the GS but the levels needed to "shut it down" are not known, nor if it would indeed shut down or just become weaker.

    At the moment though it looks like all the melting ice will... melt even more without affecting our climate too much.

    Remember also that less ice means that less sunlight is reflected by the ice caps back into space, warming the Earth.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
    This year there was extreme cold in the Arctic and a huge amount of new ice produced.

    Somehow caused by AGW.

    Caused by winter I rekon.

    But, there is a lot of new ice, and that new ice is relatively thin. Best time to begin to judge if we've seen a change in the Arctic to more permanent ice will be to see how much of that new ice survives through the summer until the return of winter. But, for a really clear picture then, as ever, more time is needed to judge trends - be they warming or cooling ones.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
    Caused by winter I reckon.

    But, there is a lot of new ice, and that new ice is relatively thin. Best time to begin to judge if we've seen a change in the Arctic to more permanent ice will be to see how much of that new ice survives through the summer until the return of winter. But, for a really clear picture then, as ever, more time is needed to judge trends - be they warming or cooling ones.

    I fully agree Dev. The measure is ice reduction is not to be measured in it's production.....the relevant threads are full of jokers claiming some kind of recovery and ,yes, it was a cold winter (still not allowing ice extents to recover to past levels) but still much of the single year ice produced is less than 1m thick (which is nowt) and is already fragmented.

    I cannot see the same folk noting just how rapid ice decline will be this year but sadly (and I'd wager quite quite a bit on this) it will do so extremely rapidly.

    The eyes of the folk who have concerns will be on the remaining multiyear pack to see how it fares as we are getting to (or below?) the critical mass that will lead to it's rapid break up and ablation.

    Just a thought, will the same folk, claiming recovery this winter, get all excited each winter (after the remaining multiyear has gone) when the sea freezes???

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    I cannot see the same folk noting just how rapid ice decline will be this year but sadly (and I'd wager quite quite a bit on this) it will do so extremely rapidly.

    The eyes of the folk who have concerns will be on the remaining multiyear pack to see how it fares as we are getting to (or below?) the critical mass that will lead to it's rapid break up and ablation.

    Just a thought, will the same folk, claiming recovery this winter, get all excited each winter (after the remaining multiyear has gone) when the sea freezes???

    GW

    Provocative post from you yet again. It will be interesting to see how the ice fares. Colder oceans this year may assist in less breakup. Also, it is clear that you or other warmists did not expect or indeed anticipate such a cold arctic winter....now be honest.

    Even with such low ice it made no difference to the winter cold up there...but it did seem to produce an awful lot more snow.

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow, lots of hot sun
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL

    One colder Arctic winter does not a trend make...............

    (And I've no idea just how 'cold' this winter has been in comparison to long term averages either..................)

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    We are in our 'cold 20' and have had a moderate La-Nina BFTP. Even I could see that we have a few cold winters in store. Winter is not the issue here. Summer temps ,dark water and extended currents into the arctic basin are the issue.

    Though only my feeling I guess we are well beyond the 'tipping point' for multiyear decay and nothing can stop it's demise over the next few summers.

    Change is always hard to accept but the sooner we do the sooner we can attempt to turn adversity into advantage don'tcha think?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
    I reckon that is a foolish statement. Nothing is caused by Winter. Winter is a result of less heat.

    And just how do you know it is all new thin ice?

    I don't 'know' but here's the kind of evidence I go by.

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    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    I suspect we are in the early stages of a more volatile interaction between the arctic circulation and the rest of the hemispheric circulation. In such a volatile situation, anything could happen, although I suspect the odds favour stress on the ice pack. We might see a few winters now with massive rebounds from ice melt to snow cover and unusual winter cold heading out in various directions. The UK largely missed the jackpot this winter until that very late surge of cold at Easter.

    I say this without any intention to wind anyone up in any direction -- climate science is not very far advanced in reality, if it was, we would have accurate long range forecasts. The Metoffice have done remarkably well at seasonal outlooks in the past three years while I've been watching in detail, but I don't know how they might do at yearly or biennial outlooks, perhaps still pretty well, but I suspect that a lot has depended on the recent run of above normal seasonal temps making continued forecasts of same more or less auto-correlative until this breaks down.

    I think it will break down fairly soon in terms of a much colder winter coming along, but it could be just one followed by another long mild spell (of winters). The reality is, we simply don't know, and as soon as the trend changes, all persistence forecasts will go out the window.

    Living in N America, I have little faith in persistence forecasts anyway, the weather here can change big-time from month to month on a fairly regular basis. But I suspect that some more harsh winters lie ahead here, if the Arctic Ocean is going to display lots of open water on a regular basis late in the year, then we have a whole new source for snowfall in our arctic and even if the atmosphere is trying to warm up, it is normally -30 or colder up there all winter, so it can accommodate a lot of warming before snow and ice become threatened through the winter season.

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    Posted
  • Location: Harrogate, N Yorks
  • Location: Harrogate, N Yorks

    With Antarctica breaking its ice limit record last year and looking to smash that record again this year, and every possibility of the Arctic pack breaking up in a spectacular way like it did last year, what does anybody think about the likelihood of a paradox forming where Antactica produces a much deeper cold and continues to extend its ice pack whereas the Arctic becomes ice free away the from major supply of land ice like Greenland?

    Because of susceptibility of Artic ice to ocean currents, which would melt it way faster than an increase in air temperature because of the vast difference in heat input, it looks like something like this could become a real possibility. Where would you see this pushing the climate change debate? Have I asked too many questions? :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
    With Antarctica breaking its ice limit record last year and looking to smash that record again this year, and every possibility of the Arctic pack breaking up in a spectacular way like it did last year, what does anybody think about the likelihood of a paradox forming where Antarctica produces a much deeper cold and continues to extend its ice pack whereas the Arctic becomes ice free away the from major supply of land ice like Greenland?

    Because of susceptibility of Arctic ice to ocean currents, which would melt it way faster than an increase in air temperature because of the vast difference in heat input, it looks like something like this could become a real possibility. Where would you see this pushing the climate change debate? Have I asked too many questions? :)

    It would appear that the overturning of the cold bottom waters around Antarctica is responsible for the levels of single year ice we see over the past 10 years in the Antarctic.

    Past 'warming events' have mirrored what we see today with the Antarctic being slower to respond as the Arctic looses ice and vice versa. This time around it is man ,and not natural responses ,that is causing the increase in the circumpolar winds leading to the cold bottom waters being brought to the surface. There is some evidence linking the failure of the Southern Ocean 'CO2 sink' with this strange ocean behaviour.

    Of course there comes a point (in the past up to 100yrs) when the bottom waters are so modified by the subducted surface waters that effectively 'warm' waters are brought to the surface by the wind and Coriolis effect leading to rapid ice shelf collapse around the continent and the ice sheets on both EAIS and WAIS slumping into the oceans.

    The impact of this amount of cold,fresh water on the workings of the ocean down there is anybodies guess when the heating is being constantly increased by mans impacts.

    The record breaking global March temps do not bode well for the Arctic ice this season and I expect a rapid decline from May onwards to last years dire levels and from there further erosion of the remaining multiyear pack.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    . This time around it is man ,and not natural responses ,that is causing the increase in the circumpolar winds leading to the cold bottom waters being brought to the surface. There is some evidence linking the failure of the Southern Ocean 'CO2 sink' with this strange ocean behaviour.

    The record breaking global March temps do not bode well for the Arctic ice this season and I expect a rapid decline from May onwards to last years dire levels and from there further erosion of the remaining multiyear pack.

    GW

    Where is the evidence/proof that it is 'man' causing the increase in circumpolar winds. That is POV not a proven fact.

    Where did you get record breaking March temps from. The graph posted on another thread by Magpie shows it being below 2005 and well below the record????

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    GW

    Where is the evidence/proof that it is 'man' causing the increase in circumpolar winds. That is POV not a proven fact.

    Where did you get record breaking March temps from. The graph posted on another thread by Magpie shows it being below 2005 and well below the record????

    Edit...seen your post of science daily.

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: A small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford, Surrey
  • Location: A small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford, Surrey
    The record breaking global March temps do not bode well for the Arctic ice this season and I expect a rapid decline from May onwards to last years dire levels and from there further erosion of the remaining multiyear pack.

    But the "record breaking" March temperatures were land temperatures - the ocean temperatures were down in 13th place, and surely it is these that affect the Arctic ice more than the land temperatures?

    CB

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
    But the "record breaking" March temperatures were land temperatures - the ocean temperatures were down in 13th place, and surely it is these that affect the Arctic ice more than the land temperatures?

    CB

    Debatable (see the discussion of 'figure 4').

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    Posted
  • Location: A small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford, Surrey
  • Location: A small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford, Surrey
    Debatable (see the discussion of 'figure 4').

    I'll read through the whole thing later on, when I have some time, but which "figure 4" are you referring to (there seem to be several of them!)?

    And even if it is actually debatable, it is a bit misleading to talk of "record breaking temperatures" when those temperatures were only on the land - either the ocean temperatures have more of an effect (which were ranked 13th warmest) or the combined land and sea temps affect the arctic ice (which were ranked 2nd), but either way neither of these were actually "record breaking" (though they were high, I will grant you).

    ;)

    CB

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    current.365.jpg

    My, My C.T. a million sq km in less than a week! Just imagine if the graph's gradient stays as steep for 6 weeks!!!

    Lots of peripheral ice melting at present I guess. We will see by the rapidity of the early melt just how thick the majority of the fringing ice was able to grow last winter by the speed of it's demise.

    I suspect we will start to see a different pattern of yearly melt as the ice dynamics change with a very fast initial melt slowing to a more 'reasonable pace' as the melt season progresses.

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    Posted
  • Location: Harrogate, N Yorks
  • Location: Harrogate, N Yorks
    My, My C.T. a million sq km in less than a week! Just imagine if the graph's gradient stays as steep for 6 weeks!!!

    Lots of peripheral ice melting at present I guess. We will see by the rapidity of the early melt just how thick the majority of the fringing ice was able to grow last winter by the speed of it's demise.

    I suspect we will start to see a different pattern of yearly melt as the ice dynamics change with a very fast initial melt slowing to a more 'reasonable pace' as the melt season progresses.

    My, My GW - look at the gradient of the graph in the Antarctic:

    post-7195-1209373413_thumb.jpg

    This is going to be an interesting year. All the GWers are going to be pointing at graphs of the Arctic and going see! see!, and then this summer all the sceptics will be pointing at graphs of the Antarctic breaking new records for ice extent with similar glee.

    Perhaps all the ice will melt at the North Pole and shift to the South Pole and then the Earth will go into an uncontrolable wobble on it's axis and we'll spin off into the Sun :lol:

    Sorry, the doom predictions in other threads are starting to rub off :o

    post-7195-1209373239_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
    My, My GW - look at the gradient of the graph in the Antarctic:

    post-7195-1209373413_thumb.jpg

    This is going to be an interesting year. All the GWers are going to be pointing at graphs of the Arctic and going see! see!, and then this summer all the sceptics will be pointing at graphs of the Antarctic breaking new records for ice extent with similar glee.

    Perhaps all the ice will melt at the North Pole and shift to the South Pole and then the Earth will go into an uncontrollable wobble on it's axis and we'll spin off into the Sun :lol:

    Sorry, the doom predictions in other threads are starting to rub off :o

    We must be mindful of the AGW influenced circumpolar winds (and their increase in speed over the past 30 yrs) leading to the upwelling of cold ,bottom waters, around Antarctica. We should not discount the impact of ready chilled waters on the formation of single year ice in the Antarctic over winter. As with the north pole winters are dark and chilly so ice build will always occur what is more useful is the rate of 'multiyear ice ablation over the summer months. In Antarctica this is the shelf ice, glacier ice and ice sheets and we see ,year on year, an increase in surface water pooling, upper slope ablation and sub ice water pooling/flowing and of course the acceleration of all of the major glaciers emptying the ice sheet into the sea.

    To me at least this is a very serious matter and not really fit for 'tit for tat' exchanges. We must all seek to understand what is occurring at both poles to help better understand the pace of global change. To merely use peripheral data as an indicator of these changes could appear shallow and opportunistic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Harrogate, N Yorks
  • Location: Harrogate, N Yorks
    We must be mindful of the AGW influenced circumpolar winds (and their increase in speed over the past 30 yrs) leading to the upwelling of cold ,bottom waters, around Antarctica. We should not discount the impact of ready chilled waters on the formation of single year ice in the Antarctic over winter. As with the north pole winters are dark and chilly so ice build will always occur what is more useful is the rate of 'multiyear ice ablation over the summer months. In Antarctica this is the shelf ice, glacier ice and ice sheets and we see ,year on year, an increase in surface water pooling, upper slope ablation and sub ice water pooling/flowing and of course the acceleration of all of the major glaciers emptying the ice sheet into the sea.

    To me at least this is a very serious matter and not really fit for 'tit for tat' exchanges. We must all seek to understand what is occurring at both poles to help better understand the pace of global change. To merely use peripheral data as an indicator of these changes could appear shallow and opportunistic.

    Apologies for the facetiousness (and my spelling) at the end of the post but the point is valid. The ice held a +ve anomoly through the summer and the anomaly position this April comapared to last is phenomenal. I've read your other posts about glacier acceleration but couldn't that be due to the vast amounts of snow being deposited on the Antarctic island? Also what effects on surface albedo / cooling of the atmosphere will all this extra ice have.

    Yep, it's very serious and my point about two camps pointing at different poles this year still holds.

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