Typhoon Neoguri

[Somerset Squall]

The second tropical depression of the year in the West Pacific has formed near the southern Phillipines. 02W is currently in very good conditions of low shear and warm sea temps, with an upper level anticyclone also aiding development. It's possible this system may become a typhoon in it's lifetime. 02W is expected to continue tracking briskly westward before making a northwestward then northward turn, The JTWC are currently forecasting landfall to occur by 120hrs in Hainan Island. Just before landfall, 02W may weaken a little due to a reduction in sea temps.

Satellite image of 02W (bottom-left):

Edited April 14, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

TD02W has become better organised this afternoon and has now been upgraded to a 35kt tropical storm. As you can see in satellite imagery it looks pretty good at the moment with convection wrapping well into the centre. The forecast remains unchanged from the previous one; JTWC still expect the system to briefly become a typhoon in the south china sea before pushing northwards and making landfall in Hainan island later this week. Certainly a lot of rain attached to this storm so if winds aren't a problem (they will still be pretty strong) then rain is likely to be the major issue.

Edited April 14, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

at long last a new system

Storm Alert issued at 14 Apr, 2008 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm 02W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for TS is 60% currently

Vietnam

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Puerto Princesa (9.8 N, 118.7 E)

probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Bonobono (8.7 N, 117.6 E)

probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Nha Trang (12.2 N, 109.2 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Mesosphere]

Latest Infrared , Infrared NHC Colour Enhancment and Water Vapour Satelite Images :-

[Cookie]

we have a name

SR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm NEOGURI

show details 10:38 AM (23 minutes ago)

Reply

Storm Alert issued at 15 Apr, 2008 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NEOGURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Vietnam

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 48 hours

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours

Laos

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 48 hours

Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours

Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Yep, we certainly have, 02W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Neoguri, the first named storm of the season. Neoguri is continuing to look better on satellite imagery and consolidation has improved during today. Strengthening was slow to begin with due to interaction with Palawan. Intensity is currently at 40kts according to the JTWC and I think strengthening will be more steady now as Neoguri is over warm waters and has excellent outflow due to the presence of an anticyclone. Neoguri is heading west-northwestward but will turn more northward eventually as it rounds the subtropical ridge currently steering it. The timing of this turn is quite important because if it is delayed for any reason then Neoguri will become uncomfortably close to the east coast of Vietnam and this is when the storm is expected to peak as a minimal typhoon. The northward turn will bring Neoguri over land at Hainan Island and eventually southern China, but Neoguri is expected to be weaker at this stage (beyond 72hrs) as seas cool and shear increases due to the baroclinic zone nearby.

Another image of Neoguri:

Taken from NAVY/NRL

[NL]

Been awhile since the last TS, as the season comes to an end soon do the storms tend to weaken

or has there been instances of higher end catagory storm?

[Somerset Squall]

Been awhile since the last TS, as the season comes to an end soon do the storms tend to weaken

or has there been instances of higher end catagory storm?

Well this is the West Pacific so this basin season is just starting. The south Indian ocean and South Pacific season are just coming to a close now. Generally I would say storms at the end of seasons tend to be a little weaker as conditions become less favourable though I am sure there have been plenty of examples of a season going out with a biggie (1999, Hurricane Lenny in the Atlantic, a November Cat 4 springs to mind).

Edited April 15, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[NL]

Thanks SS, doh.!! Didnt realize that it was in West Pacific, with a name like Neoguri should have noticed that its Japanese orientated..

[kold weather]

Yep first offical tropical storm of the northern hemispheric tropical season, pretty much bang on time compared to the average!

There is a lot of convection with this system but not so much near the center of the circulation which is an interesting trait, would think its going to take a while to get stronger with a convective set-up like that. Also means the TS winds will be fairly well removed from the center in those strong convective bands. If convection forms over the LLCC then it may strengthen a little faster as it actually appears to have a decent shape indicating a decent circulation. Whilst I'm not entirly sure it will become a typhoon because of its slightly removed convection I also would be foolish to rule it out, it could go either way to be fair, the agencies forecasting it believe it has a chance to become a typhoon. I think the problem right now is it has a very broad circulation from the looks of the still images I've seen, though I've not seen loops of it so can't confirm that!

Still looks like the start of the tropical season is here...won't be long before we see some interest in the E.Pacific as well...then its time for our basin the Atlantic!

EDIT 7.30---set-up of this system is starting to change...looks like its starting to develop the deep convection that will help to speed up the development of the system.

Edited April 15, 2008 by kold weather

[Cookie]

come on kold, you're the all powerful one of this area of the forum would have hoped you would have changed the name of this thread?

Tropical Storm NEOGURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Vietnam

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[kold weather]

Hehe well I'm no god cookie I just try my hardest!

Anyway Neoguri has got a nice CDO forming right now, total change around from my last post. The deep convection that I wondered about in my last post has indeed occured and I suspect its now strengthening fairly quickly in fairly decent atmospheric conditions. Heat content isn't amazing but its still more then good enough for fairly quick strengthening at the tropical storm stage.

Also should be noted that the microwave imagery shows a weak eye structure starting to emerge as well in the middle of the CDO which is interesting and a good sign that we have a strengthening system on our hands. If it carries on the way its going it will be a typhoon in the next 12hrs...sat.estimates put it at 55kts right now!

[Somerset Squall]

Neoguri has rapidly intensified overnight to 60kts. As KW says, it now has a good central dense overcast feature and an eye is becoming better defined. I wouldn't be surprised if it was just becoming a typhoon now actually. Good outflow and sufficient sea temps will allow for further strengthening (JTWC call a peak of 85kt, cat 2) until Neoguri makes landfall in Hainan Island. Neoguri will then push inland and dissipate over Southern China by 120hrs. Because Neoguri is stronger than expected, it could still be a typhoon when it makes landfall in Hainan Island, where there could be damaging winds and torrential rains. Certainly one to keep an eye on.

Latest image of Neoguri:

[Cookie]

I was only joking mr Kold

taken from

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp200802.html

[kold weather]

Yep now expected to max out at 85kts. still looks good though the eye seems to have weakened a little in the last 6hrs or so. I'd guess its probably around 65kts right now. Heat content starts to decrease to the NW of this system in the next 12-24hrs which may mean a less rapid development from now on in after the very quick strengthening but it has got a fairly decent structure despite the slight weakening of the eye recently, not a bad inflow either for that matter which all suggests it should strengthen a little more. Still as long as it doesn't fall apart still going to be quite a powerful system when it makes landfall, lots of rainfall and also obviously high winds!

Edited April 16, 2008 by kold weather

[Cookie]

new alert

Storm Alert issued at 16 Apr, 2008 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NEOGURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Vietnam

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, Neoguri became a typhoon this morning and has intensified further since with sustained winds now at 75kts according to the JTWC. As KW says, ocean heat content is ok for now but will begin to lower as Neoguri pushes northwards. Good outflow will help Neoguri strengthen a little more but time is probably running out for any big increase in intensity. JTWC still calling for a peak of 85kts. The east coast of Vietnam will proably see the weather worsen over the next day or so but the main impact is on Hainan Island, there is a good chance Neoguri will still be a typhoon at landfall. Thereafter, Neoguri will push inalnd across southern China and dissipate.

Another image of Neoguri (the ring of convection around the eye seems quite small, Neoguri certainly isn't as big as it used to be but obviously it's a lot better organised):

Taken from NAVY/NRL

[Cookie]

It strengthened fast

Storm Alert issued at 16 Apr, 2008 12:00 GMT

Typhoon NEOGURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Vietnam

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 16 Apr, 2008 18:00 GMT

Typhoon NEOGURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

[Mesosphere]

Latest Satellite Image of the Typhoon:

Here's a Bulliten sent out yesterday (Bulletin 263)

Reason for issue

* latest warning for tropical cyclone Neoguri

Next bulletin

* after 0900 GMT on 17 April 2008

although earlier bulletins may be issued should significant developments occur

NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN

TYPHOON Neoguri / 02W

Warning 12 at 2100 GMT

Position 14.7N 112.3E

Location 350 miles SSE of Hainan Island, China

Movement NNW at 8 knots

Maximum sustained winds 75 knots

Maximum gusts 90 knots

Next update from JTWC at 0300 GMT

Neoguri has strengthened further over the South China Sea, and will reach an intensity of 85 knots prior to landfall, which will occur early on Friday on Hainan Island. As a result of interaction with land and deteriorating atmospheric conditions, Neoguri will dissipate over land within a day afterwards.

HAZARD SUMMARY

Maximum significant wave height 22 feet

Tropical storm force winds occur within 95 to 105 miles of the centre

Hurricane (typhoon) strength winds occur within 30 miles of the centre

[Cookie]

update

Storm Alert issued at 17 Apr, 2008 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NEOGURI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

[kold weather]

Well Neoguir has reached 90kts offically this morning (though IMO it doesn't look any stronger then 80kts for reasons I'm about to say...) and I think thats about the peak of this system. Northern eyewall is starting to open up this morning and is very patchy in nature, though the southern eyewall is still pretty strong looking however I strongly suspect that the open eyewall is a sure sign that Neoguri is starting to suffer the lower heat content...esp considering its northern eyewal is weakening and thats closer to the lower heat content then the southern eyewall. Forecasts still has it making landfall as a tyhpoon and I think I still agree as it has a good shape to it but I think it will weaken from now on in steadily.

Edited April 17, 2008 by kold weather

[Cookie]

do you think it will cause much damage?

[kold weather]

Well depends on how strongly it comes in and where it makes landfall. Any landfalling typhoon can always cause damage however...

I still suspect we will see fairly quick weakening sooner rather then later with Neoguri, in fact i'm not convinced by the intensity the offical agencies have put this at...however dvorak is consitantly progging estimates upto 100kts so its not surprising to see them raise the estimated wind speeds to 90kts. Despite the northern eyewall now being totally void of any deep convection the eye still looks reasonable enough and the southern eyewall is still looking decent.

Heat content drops away in the next 12hrs in a big way so the way the northern eyewall has weakened should eventually occur to the southern eyewall as well.

[Cookie]

thanks kold