LRF or attempting them

[Gavin P]

Thanks John.

Looking at the way FI is developing, I wouldn't be that surprisd to see quite a distinct negative NAO pattern taking over around month end and into December, with as you say a block forming somewhere to north or north-west.

I know the general consensus is for a mild December (at least until Xmas) and indeed that could well be how the month as a whole turns out, but at least for the first few days or week, I have a sneaky suspicion it'll be pretty cold...

Edited November 14, 2009 by Gavin P

[mcweather]

Thank you for all your work again John it is always an interesting read and always nice to read something rooted in the science of the subject by a professional. I have been of the feeling ever since the latest mild and unsettle period started that it has not had the feel of something that was going to set the trend for more than a fortnight or so.

[La Bise]

Thanks John, a virtual pint of Black Sheep is on the way

[johnholmes]

well it 'aint 'appened yet but thanks-I'm sure the brewery do REAL vouchers!

[johnholmes]

below is think to lrf No 39; apologies for not being in the usual format but I really have not got the time to post in the normal way, so I'm afraid to find out what it says you will have to open and read the full doc.!

No 39 issued 20Nov for 30 nov-10 dec.doc

[Bottesford]

For those struggling with the Word doc - here's a pdf version which should be more accessible to everyone:

No39_issued 20Nov_for_30_nov-10_dec.pdf

[johnholmes]

For those struggling with the Word doc - here's a pdf version which should be more accessible to everyone:

No39_issued 20Nov_for_30_nov-10_dec.pdf

tks agin Botty-how does one produce that-in SIMPLE terms please for me? !

[Bottesford]

Download this program: http://www.primopdf.com (go for the free version).

Install it.

Now, from the Word document, goto Print then select PrimoPDF as your printer.

Press Print then Create PDF on the window that pops up.

Save the file.

All done!

[johnholmes]

thank you young man

Ill give it a try and see how much of a c---- up I can make of it!]

[snowking]

Hi John,

A fascinating read as ever! I couldn't agree more with the output, and to be honest i'm very inclined to go with a stormier mid-december period too. CFS has trended towards this too.

Just two questions I have. The first, regarding the ENSO forecast at the start, is it not rather worrying in terms of winter that we are now borderline strong El Nino? Especially given that they hint at it heading into the strong category given the "substantial deep anomalies" they talk of?

The second, would you be able to point me in the direction of the 30mB north pole stratosphere temperature graph please ?

Kind Regards

SK

[johnholmes]

heavens above-it worked-I'm amazed I managed it-might use it rather often in place of the very time consuming adding charts into the text

once again ta muchly Mr B-may the warmth soon return for sitting outside your pub!

Hi John,

Just two questions I have. The first, regarding the ENSO forecast at the start, is it not rather worrying in terms of winter that we are now borderline strong El Nino? Especially given that they hint at it heading into the strong category given the "substantial deep anomalies" they talk of?

The second, would you be able to point me in the direction of the 30mB north pole stratosphere temperature graph please ?

Re the ENSO It says much the same as it has over the past 2-3 months-so that factor has always been part of the equation, not good but not the end of winter prospects, that is if its cold one is after.

Re the second-I use the very basic one, others like GP etc use more complex information

The link I use is

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

John

[snowking]

Re the ENSO It says much the same as it has over the past 2-3 months-so that factor has always been part of the equation, not good but not the end of winter prospects, that is if its cold one is after.

Re the second-I use the very basic one, others like GP etc use more complex information

The link I use is

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

John

Thanks John,

We seem to say this every winter but it really is very finely poised in terms of odds on a below or above average winter - i guess something has to give either way some time soon

Thanks Again

[Rich_Clements]

Thanks for that John, I was able to open the Word document, It was very interesting even I, a total novice could see the trough having moved east on those charts, giving some well deserved respite for Cumbria and South-West Scotland, Looks like Norway will be getting it instead.

[johnholmes]

issued below as a pdf file, text and charts, as yet again I'm strapped for time

if anyone is unable to open it please pm me

No 40 issued 30 nov for 7-17 dec.pdf

[johnholmes]

below is the link to the pdf file with the latest lrf in it

oh dear what a prat

coming up lower down and glad someone has noted it

Edited December 3, 2009 by johnholmes

[Snowmad79]

Hi, should there be a link to issue number 41 or is 40 the latest ?

[Snowstorm1]

His forgotten to put the link woops :lol: lmao everyone makes mistakes just give him time and he will realise and put the link on

[johnholmes]

try this one-hopefully the real one issued this evening 3 December

No 41 issued 4 Dec for 14-24 Dec.pdf

apologies about that

[Snowmad79]

Thanks John and a great read that was. I have a sneaky feeling that the weather around christmas time or just after will be that similar of last year with HP dominance. Global Atmospheric Angular momentum charts have shown a similar but slower emergance to what was seen pre christmas last year allowing HP to build northwards over the UK. Unfortunately for us the Hp's progression north was hindered by the stubborn PV and if im not mistaken, that aspect may not be a problem this year. Overall I dont expect to see anything remembling this in the charts until atleast mid December onwards. Uhm appoligies for raiding your thread like this lol.

Cheers

Snowmad79

[Rob]

thans for that John, a very arkward period to forecast at the moment.

[johnholmes]

if anyone is having trouble opening the pfd document-either pm me, or if a visitor to the site without that availability please post a request in the thread.

My reason for posting is that the figures suggest 342 have looked at the link but only 79 have actually opened it?

Even with my mistake in posting initially with no link the disparity seems very large to me?

[Snowmad79]

if anyone is having trouble opening the pfd document-either pm me, or if a visitor to the site without that availability please post a request in the thread.

My reason for posting is that the figures suggest 342 have looked at the link but only 79 have actually opened it?

Even with my mistake in posting initially with no link the disparity seems very large to me?

I didnt have a problem opening the file at all, but some pdf's from other sites do have a strange problem and in some cases they wont open.

For those who couldnt, this is easily solved by right clicking the link and selecting "Save target As" and point it to your desktop or folder of choice, then click the file you just saved and it will then open as normal with the Pdf viewer.

[cooling climate]

I posted this in the model thread this morning and it has been buried, I hope its alright to

put it in this thread as it is of course related to lrf.

• 
• Stratus
• 

• Group: Members
• Posts: 124
• Joined: 11-November 09
• Gender:Male
• Location:hertfordshire

Posted Today, 09:13

In case this has not been posted before I think this is a excellent link that goes some

way to explaining the the relationships between the GWO, AAM and MJO.

It helped me to get a better understanding on these complex teleconnects.

http://www.esrl.noaa...maproom_new.htm

Plus this one from Ed Berry.

http://www.deepconve...11HPC_Berry.ppt

[johnholmes]

I didnt have a problem opening the file at all, but some pdf's from other sites do have a strange problem and in some cases they wont open.

For those who couldnt, this is easily solved by right clicking the link and selecting "Save target As" and point it to your desktop or folder of choice, then click the file you just saved and it will then open as normal with the Pdf viewer.

thanks for that info

[johnholmes]

latest lrf out to 31 December link to pdf below

No 42 issued 11 Dec for21-31 Dec.pdf