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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants
Posted

Thanks John. :)

Looking at the way FI is developing, I wouldn't be that surprisd to see quite a distinct negative NAO pattern taking over around month end and into December, with as you say a block forming somewhere to north or north-west.

I know the general consensus is for a mild December (at least until Xmas) and indeed that could well be how the month as a whole turns out, but at least for the first few days or week, I have a sneaky suspicion it'll be pretty cold...

  • Replies 233
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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
Posted

Thank you for all your work again John it is always an interesting read and always nice to read something rooted in the science of the subject by a professional. I have been of the feeling ever since the latest mild and unsettle period started that it has not had the feel of something that was going to set the trend for more than a fortnight or so.

Posted
  • Location: Sale (Cheshire)
  • Weather Preferences: Dry and cold...
  • Location: Sale (Cheshire)
Posted

Thanks John, a virtual pint of Black Sheep is on the way drinks.gif

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

well it 'aint 'appened yet but thanks-I'm sure the brewery do REAL vouchers!

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

below is think to lrf No 39; apologies for not being in the usual format but I really have not got the time to post in the normal way, so I'm afraid to find out what it says you will have to open and read the full doc.!

No 39 issued 20Nov for 30 nov-10 dec.doc

Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
Posted

For those struggling with the Word doc - here's a pdf version which should be more accessible to everyone:

No39_issued 20Nov_for_30_nov-10_dec.pdf

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

For those struggling with the Word doc - here's a pdf version which should be more accessible to everyone:

No39_issued 20Nov_for_30_nov-10_dec.pdf

tks agin Botty-how does one produce that-in SIMPLE terms please for me? !

Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
Posted

Download this program: http://www.primopdf.com (go for the free version).

Install it.

Now, from the Word document, goto Print then select PrimoPDF as your printer.

Press Print then Create PDF on the window that pops up.

Save the file.

All done!

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

thank you young man

Ill give it a try and see how much of a c---- up I can make of it!]

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
Posted

Hi John,

A fascinating read as ever! I couldn't agree more with the output, and to be honest i'm very inclined to go with a stormier mid-december period too. CFS has trended towards this too.

Just two questions I have. The first, regarding the ENSO forecast at the start, is it not rather worrying in terms of winter that we are now borderline strong El Nino? Especially given that they hint at it heading into the strong category given the "substantial deep anomalies" they talk of?

The second, would you be able to point me in the direction of the 30mB north pole stratosphere temperature graph please ? :whistling:

Kind Regards

SK

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

heavens above-it worked-I'm amazed I managed it-might use it rather often in place of the very time consuming adding charts into the text

once again ta muchly Mr B-may the warmth soon return for sitting outside your pub!

Hi John,

Just two questions I have. The first, regarding the ENSO forecast at the start, is it not rather worrying in terms of winter that we are now borderline strong El Nino? Especially given that they hint at it heading into the strong category given the "substantial deep anomalies" they talk of?

The second, would you be able to point me in the direction of the 30mB north pole stratosphere temperature graph please ?

Re the ENSO It says much the same as it has over the past 2-3 months-so that factor has always been part of the equation, not good but not the end of winter prospects, that is if its cold one is after.

Re the second-I use the very basic one, others like GP etc use more complex information

The link I use is

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

John

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
Posted

Re the ENSO It says much the same as it has over the past 2-3 months-so that factor has always been part of the equation, not good but not the end of winter prospects, that is if its cold one is after.

Re the second-I use the very basic one, others like GP etc use more complex information

The link I use is

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

John

Thanks John,

We seem to say this every winter but it really is very finely poised in terms of odds on a below or above average winter - i guess something has to give either way some time soon

Thanks Again

Posted
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot in Summer Cold in Winter
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
Posted

Thanks for that John, I was able to open the Word document, It was very interesting even I, a total novice could see the trough having moved east on those charts, giving some well deserved respite for Cumbria and South-West Scotland, Looks like Norway will be getting it instead.

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

issued below as a pdf file, text and charts, as yet again I'm strapped for time

if anyone is unable to open it please pm me

No 40 issued 30 nov for 7-17 dec.pdf

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

below is the link to the pdf file with the latest lrf in it

oh dear what a prat

coming up lower down and glad someone has noted it

Posted
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowageddon and a new ice age. Then a summer long bbq heatwave!
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
Posted

Hi, should there be a link to issue number 41 or is 40 the latest ?

Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
Posted

His forgotten to put the link woops :lol: lmao everyone makes mistakes just give him time and he will realise and put the link on :)

Posted
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowageddon and a new ice age. Then a summer long bbq heatwave!
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
Posted

Thanks John and a great read that was. I have a sneaky feeling that the weather around christmas time or just after will be that similar of last year with HP dominance. Global Atmospheric Angular momentum charts have shown a similar but slower emergance to what was seen pre christmas last year allowing HP to build northwards over the UK. Unfortunately for us the Hp's progression north was hindered by the stubborn PV and if im not mistaken, that aspect may not be a problem this year. Overall I dont expect to see anything remembling this in the charts until atleast mid December onwards. Uhm appoligies for raiding your thread like this lol.

Cheers

Snowmad79

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
Posted

thans for that John, a very arkward period to forecast at the moment.

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

if anyone is having trouble opening the pfd document-either pm me, or if a visitor to the site without that availability please post a request in the thread.

My reason for posting is that the figures suggest 342 have looked at the link but only 79 have actually opened it?

Even with my mistake in posting initially with no link the disparity seems very large to me?

Posted
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowageddon and a new ice age. Then a summer long bbq heatwave!
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
Posted

if anyone is having trouble opening the pfd document-either pm me, or if a visitor to the site without that availability please post a request in the thread.

My reason for posting is that the figures suggest 342 have looked at the link but only 79 have actually opened it?

Even with my mistake in posting initially with no link the disparity seems very large to me?

I didnt have a problem opening the file at all, but some pdf's from other sites do have a strange problem and in some cases they wont open.

For those who couldnt, this is easily solved by right clicking the link and selecting "Save target As" and point it to your desktop or folder of choice, then click the file you just saved and it will then open as normal with the Pdf viewer.

Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
Posted

I posted this in the model thread this morning and it has been buried, I hope its alright to

put it in this thread as it is of course related to lrf.

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  • Group: Members
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  • Location:hertfordshire

Posted Today, 09:13

In case this has not been posted before I think this is a excellent link that goes some

way to explaining the the relationships between the GWO, AAM and MJO.

It helped me to get a better understanding on these complex teleconnects.

http://www.esrl.noaa...maproom_new.htm

Plus this one from Ed Berry.

http://www.deepconve...11HPC_Berry.ppt

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

I didnt have a problem opening the file at all, but some pdf's from other sites do have a strange problem and in some cases they wont open.

For those who couldnt, this is easily solved by right clicking the link and selecting "Save target As" and point it to your desktop or folder of choice, then click the file you just saved and it will then open as normal with the Pdf viewer.

thanks for that info

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