East Pacific Invest Thread

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 93C and 95E have dissipated so development no longer expected here.

Invest 94E has become slightly better organised this evening, there is signs of rotation within the convection signifying the development of a low level centre. Convectio remains fairly widespread, and conditions remain favourable for further slow development.

Invest 96E hasn't really become any better organised since yesterday. NHC still place it at high risk of development into a tropical depression in the next 48hrs and the JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert. Convection is persisting near the LLC but this centre is not defined enough yet for the upgrade.

(Doesn't Hernan look impressive on the image above!)

[Cookie]

yup it sure dose

This image will give you a better idea of where everything is:

what an image their all lined up in a row

[Somerset Squall]

yup it sure dose

what an image their all lined up in a row

I know, certainly quite busy in the East Pacific at the moment. 96E looking better organised at the moment, that convection is definitely wrapping well into the centre now. May have a new tropical depression tomorrow.

[Somerset Squall]

The invests are being a bit fickle at the moment!

Invest 95E has made a bit of a comeback this morning, with deep convection near an ill defined centre. NHC put 95E at a medium risk of development over the next 48hrs.

Invest 96E has become more disorganised this morning and convection has decreased. The NHC have downgraded it's chances to medium for development over the next 48hrs.

Invest 94E still remains largely disorganised, but there is a lot of convection associated with the system. It still has a lot of organising to do though.

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 94E has now been renamed invest 94C as it has moved into the Central Pacific. Still looking disorganised at the moment.

Invest 95E however, after looking like a goner yesterday, is looking much better this afternoon. The NHC have latched onto the idea that it may develop into a tropical depression in the next couple of dys and convection has incereased with the system and the LLC is becoming better defined.

Invest 96E is still struggling. Land interaction with the coast of Mexico may hamper development but it still may develop into a tropical depression over the next couple days.

Image of 95E:

[tinybill]

dont know if there a thread yet

al-92

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS

LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF

THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM

ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR

FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE

POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

2. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED

OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE

CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE

DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15

MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 94C remains very disorganised. Conditions are favourable for development but this system has not really developed at all over the last 48hrs so it remains to be seen if it can make good use out of the good environment.

Invest 95E is looking poor again. The system has lost organisation and convection seems to be sheared to the west of the LLC. It appears the environment is only marginal for further development.

Invest 96E remains disorganised too. The mass of convection is bringing heavy rains to the coast of Mexico but there are no signs of a well defined LLC or convectional banding. Any development therefore will be slow.

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 94C has lost all convection, and the circulation is clear to see. However, with no convection present, the chances for development do not look good.

Invest 95E is still looking poor too. Very little convection remains and what is left is well displaced to the west of the exposed centre. Immediate development appears unlikely.

Invest 96E has become a little better organised again, but it has done this before just to fall apart again. 96E is pushing northwestwards towards cooler waters but if organisation trends continue then a tropical depression may form before conditions become unfavourable.

The remnant low of Kika continues westwards. Some small cells of convection have been popping up near the centre, but with high shear perisisting, redevelopment is unlikely.

Edited August 12, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

very congested in the east pacific

[Somerset Squall]

very congested in the east pacific

Indeed, very active times.

Well, invest 96E strengthened into Iselle, which is currently battling shear.

Invest 94C has dissipated.

Invest 95E still has the potential for development. The invest is being attacked by shear at the moment but convection is developing near the very well defined centre despite this shear. As shear is expected to decrease over the next day or so, and the LLC is well defined, the chances are looking good for tropical cyclone development for 95E. But then how many times have I (and indeed trhe NHC) said that before? A case of wait and see to find out if 95E manages to make the hop to tropical depression status like 96E has, conditions are certainly on it's side.

The remant low of Kika has moved into the west pacific. I will continue discussing it here if there are any signs of re-development, which there aren't at the moment.

[Somerset Squall]

We currently have invest 99E in the East Pacific, south of Baja Calafornia. High wind shear has prevented this one from organising over the last couple days, however, organisation has increased today as shear is easing. The NHC give 99E a high chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours as it moves westwards.

[Somerset Squall]

We now have invest 90E in the east Pacific. Currently there is broad rotation within disorganised convection, so development, if any, will be slow. However, conditions are favourable, and the NHC put invest 90E at a medium risk of development in the next 48 hours.

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 90E is still looking very messy at the moment. Showers are currently very disorganised and there is little evidence of a defined circulation. However, the invest is currently over the hottest waters of the East Pacific so there may be further development of the system.

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 90E is looking much better organised this evening, with deep convection becoming more concentrated around the centre. A tropical depression may form in the next day or two if current organisational trends continue. Latest satellite imagery shows the improved organisation:

Edited September 20, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[tinybill]

looking at NOAA site to-night looks like we got another hurrican heading for the gulf of Mexico to-night

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Somerset Squall]

Not strictly East Pacific but there is something brewing in the Central Pacific. Invest 96C has looked fiarly disorganised over the last couple days but convection has become far deeper and more organised around a developing LLC today. There are clear signs of rotation and we may well have TD2C in the next couple days if organisation continues to improve.

Looking at satellite imagery it almost looks like a Tropical Depression now. No doubt the system will be more closely investigated very soon.

[Somerset Squall]

Along with TS Marie, we have invest 91E. This invest has been around a while, meandering in the east of the basin. Shear has so far prevented any significant organisation. However, shear has eased today and convectional organisation is improving around an increasingly well defined low level centre. May become a tropical depression by tomorrow if current trends continue.

[Somerset Squall]

Some interesting facts from the NHC regarding the exceptionally quiet September in the East Pacific:

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

OVERALL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY DURING SEPTEMBER WAS THE LOWEST

EVER RECORDED SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1971. IN TERMS OF THE

ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY INDEX (ACE)...SEPTEMBER 2008 HAD A VALUE

OF ONLY 9% OF THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE. ONLY TWO TROPICAL STORMS WERE

NOTED DURING THE MONTH AND THERE WERE NO HURRICANES. THE 1971-2007

AVERAGES ARE THREE TROPICAL STORMS...TWO HURRICANES...AND ONE MAJOR

HURRICANE.

KARINA WAS A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION

FORMED 260 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY

ON 2 SEPTEMBER FROM A PERSISTENT AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER. KARINA

WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH IT WAS

ABLE TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 40 MPH LATE ON 2 SEPTEMBER.

THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR INCREASED FURTHER AND KARINA DEGENERATED TO

A REMNANT LOW LATE ON THE THE THIRD OF SEPTEMBER.

LOWELL FORMED FROM A STRONG TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EARLY ON 7

SEPTEMBER WHILE IT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF

MANZANILLO MEXICO. DESPITE BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE STORM GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED OVER THE

NEXT DAY AND REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 MPH WHEN IT WAS LOCATED

ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

LOWELL CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO

BUT STARTED TO WEAKEN ON 9 SEPTEMBER AS IT BEGAN TO INGEST STABLE

AIR AND REMAINED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE

CYCLONE ULTIMATELY WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 10

SEPTEMBER AND TURNED SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A

MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. LOWELL MADE LANDFALL OVER THE FAR

SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA EARLY ON 11 SEPTEMBER...MOVED ACROSS THE

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THEN DISSIPATED ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND

MEXICO NEAR LOS MOCHIS EARLY ON 12 SEPTEMBER. ALTHOUGH NO DEATHS

HAVE BEEN REPORTED...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING FROM THE REMNANTS

OF LOWELL LEFT MORE THAN 26500 PEOPLE HOMELESS IN THE MEXICAN

STATES OF MICHOACAN...SONORA...AND SINALOA.

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH) DEATHS

-----------------------------------------------------------------

TS KARINA 2-3 SEP 40 0

TS LOWELL 7-12 SEP 60 0

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Looks like the second very quiet year in a row for the East Pacific.

[Somerset Squall]

An active start to October it seems, with invest 91E looking like it finally getting it's act together:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA

OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO

HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES

ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

There are clear signs of rotation and convection has increased in coverage.

[londonsnow]

interesting. not sure whether the track of this potential hurricane is of any threat. from the advisory it seems not really

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

000

WTPZ35 KNHC 040300

TCPEP5

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008

800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008

...FIFTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE

PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST OR ABOUT

230 MILES...370 KM...SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. A GRADUAL

TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE

DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO AND MOVE PARALLEL TO

THE COASTLINE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND

THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS MAY SKIRT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST

OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF

SQUALLY WEATHER.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...13.6 N...99.4 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

200 AM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[Somerset Squall]

We now have invest 92E, to the east of TD15E. Thunderstorms have moved into the East Pacific from central America and they seem to be organising around a developing low. GFS is very keen to develop this invest, and as the latest forecast disscussion for TD15E states, it may well absorb TD15E if it forms into a tropical depression quick enough. The other models aren't picking up on this invest as yet, and leave TD15E to develop on it's own as it pushes westwards. However, 92E is already looking fairly impressive, especially as there was nothing there this morning.

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 92E is currently battling strong easterly shear which is displacing convection west of the centre. However, the invest will soon move into a region of lower shear with may allow development into a tropical depression in a day or so.

[Somerset Squall]

Shear is relaxing over invest 92E and it is becoming better organised. NHC have upgraded it's chances of development to high for the next 12-48 hours. The system remains in the far eastern Pacific, and has actually moved eastwards over the last 24 hours, which is highly unusual. Looks like we may have a tropical cyclone perhaps as far east as Alma earlier this year, which was the farthest east forming storm on record in the East Pacific. Because it didn't push west and develop quickly, it allowed Norbert to grow. Will invest 92E move out in the same path as he did and become a hurricane? We'll have to wait and see as always. However, we may have TD16E tomorrow if organisation continues.

[Somerset Squall]

We currently have a late season invest in the East Pacific, south of Manzanillo, Mexico- 95E. This disturbance developed yesterday and has slowly become better organised. Some convection is persisting over the LLC and there are signs of formative banding features. Waters are still warm enough to support development, and shear is currently low, so the invest my develop further over the next couple days. I give 95E a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 48hrs.

[Cookie]

good things where starting to get a little quite!