Gavin's Thoughts (June 14th)

[Gavin P]

Hello folks,

Anybody hoping for a taste of summer is going to disappointed with this weeks Thoughts, I'm afraid. The outlook for the coming week looks below average throughout and eventually becoming very unsettled with a deep low pressure sitting right over the top of the UK by mid-week. A very poor outlook indeed!

This weekend the country finds itself in a run of cool northerly winds with low pressure to the east and high pressure up to the north-west. Overall its not too bad, because theres not a huge amount of rain around, although today in particular showers are possible. Temperatures will be cool this weekend, but if you can get out of wind, it shouldn't feel too bad.

So Saturday sees a mix if sunny spell and patchy cloud, with chance of a shower almost anywhere, but a risk of heavy showers in a band from East Anglia, Northern England and Northern Ireland. Having said that, most places should stay dry with sunny spells. Chilly northerly winds everywhere, so with below average temps of 14-18c it will feel cool.

Overnight most places should become dry with clear spells and a very chilly night indeed, with temps of 3-6c.

Sunday looks very similar to Saturday but with fewer showers. Generally its a case of sunny spells and cloud with temps of 15-19c. The extreme south could see thicker cloud with rain brushing the South Coast and Channel Islands.

Monday sees a little ridge of high pressure coming across the UK, so overall not a bad day. Plenty of sunny spells, patchy cloud and times, and generally most places should be dry. A cold start again, with temperatures probably no better than average, 17-20c, north to south.

Tuesday sees an area of low pressure heading in from the Atlantic, with the little ridge quickly being swamped. Again, most places get off to a very cold start, and then for England and Wales we settle into a dry day with sunny spells and patchy cloud. Scotland and Northern Ireland starts cold and sunny, but it'll quickly cloud up with wet and windy weather pushing into Western Scotland and Northern Ireland by the end of the day. Temps 15-16c in the north, 18-20c in the south.

Wednesday sees low pressure sitting right over the top of the country, so a very poor day indeed. A band of wet and windy weather sweeps across the country through the morning. Following from the west will be a mix of sunshine and heavy, squally showers, driven in by unusually strong winds for June. Obviously temperature will be below average, 13-17c.

Thursday sees low pressure moving slightly to the east of the UK, but still dominating the weather, and its back to those cool northerly winds. Basically a day of sunshine and showers, with showers merging into longer spells of rain at times in the north and east, driest and brightest weather in the south-west. Temps very cool, 12-16c, maybe 18c in the extreme south-west.

Friday sees the depresion pulling away to the east, with a ridge coming in from the south-west. We're still under very cool airstream, so it'll be back to cold nights on Thursday night/Friday morning and Friday night/Saturday morning. Friday itself looks to be a drier day with more in the way of sunshine but still a risk of heavy showers in the north and east. Temps, 12-14c in the north, 15-18c in the south.

Next weekend probably sees a little ridge for a time, giving a sunny and warmer day on Saturday, and perhaps a very warm day on Sunday, with temps maybe reaching 23c on Sunday afternoon, though by then the ridge will probably be weakening by the next low pressure system, so perhaps rain and wind pushing into the west by the end of Sunday?

Summary: Cool and dry to start, becoming very cool and wet by midweek. A poor outlook!

[damianslaw]

Thanks for another succinct forecast for the week. I'll take a cool and unsettled working week if it means we get a nice weekend as you suggest. Fingers crossed

[grab my graupel]

Thanks for that Gav

A very nicely constructed forecast, as always.

I'm certainly not looking forward to next Wednesday, is doesn't sound

very summery at all.

Brian

[Zenarcher]

Thanks Gavin a great forecast thanks for your time and effort to make it

[Gavin P]

Thanks very much guys.