Hurricane Boris

[kold weather]

Overnight Invest 94E has been upgraded to TD2-E. Convection increased somewhat overnight and some slight banding features have formed though most of the deep convection is on the southern side with a good inflow channel on the western side possibly drawing energy from Invest 95E to its west. The close distance between the two means we could have a comlicated situation in terms of shearing patterns between the two systems but we shall get a better indication of what will happen soon. NHC forecasting it to reach tropical storm force but then to stay steady at 35kts. I'm not sure about what to expect I want to see how the next 12hrs develops before making any call.

[kold weather]

Well Tropical depression 2E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Boris. System has further developed in the last 6hrs with deep convection now present within the southern semicircle of the circulation mainly indicating some shear but its not overpowering as of now and ther eis clear banding occuring with the tropical storm also displaying good outflow on the southern side, thanks to the weak shear present with the system which may actually help to fan out the outflow somewhat.

NHC expecting 50kts out of this system but personally I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it go just a little higher then that towards hurricane status, maybe just stopping short depending on how quickly 95E to its west forms but we shall to have to wait and see with that regard.

[tinybill]

Overnight Invest 94E has been upgraded to TD2-E. Convection increased somewhat overnight and some slight banding features have formed though most of the deep convection is on the southern side with a good inflow channel on the western side possibly drawing energy from Invest 95E to its west. The close distance between the two means we could have a comlicated situation in terms of shearing patterns between the two systems but we shall get a better indication of what will happen soon. NHC forecasting it to reach tropical storm force but then to stay steady at 35kts. I'm not sure about what to expect I want to see how the next 12hrs develops before making any call.

im glad you started it i look her early this afternoon it was un named

http://www.sailwx.info/wxobs/waveheight.phtml

[tinybill]

im glad you started it i look her early this afternoon it was un named

http://www.sailwx.info/wxobs/waveheight.phtml

000

WTPZ32 KNHC 271431

TCPEP2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008

800 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BORIS...NO

THREAT TO LAND...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST OR ABOUT 715

MILES...1145 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND

ABOUT 555 MILES...890 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

BORIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A

GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...12.6 N...109.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

200 PM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Somerset Squall]

Boris is looking pretty healthy now, with some really deep and organised convection over the centre, which should help it strengthen. NHC now expect a peak of 60kts, we may see the first hurricane of 2008 out of this one.

TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008

200 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008

BORIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP

TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -80C...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE

NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES

FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR

THIS ADVISORY. DATA FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 13Z SHOWS THAT

BORIS HAS A BROAD INNER CIRCULATION...WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS

LOCATED ABOUT 60-75 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW

REMAINS GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

BORIS HAS JOGGED TO THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE

INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/8. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE FORECAST

TRACK BEING SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT

OTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

BORIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48

HR WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST

TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN BEST

OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK

OF BORIS COULD BE INFLUENCED BY INTERACTION WITH OTHER TROPICAL

CYCLONE...THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E TO THE

WEST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ANOTHER CYCLONE FORECAST BY

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS EAST OF BORIS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE

FORECAST TRACK CURRENTLY DOES NOT TAKE THESE POSSIBLE INTERACTIONS

INTO ACCOUNT.

BORIS IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN INVERTED UPPER-LEVEL

TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE

SHEAR...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS NOW SHOWING AN EARLIER ONSET

AND LONGER DURATION OF THE SHEAR THAN IN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS

IS LIKELY TO HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON BORIS THAN PREVIOUSLY

FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND...THE NEW

INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR BORIS TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF

60 KT BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES. AFTER 24-36 HR...BORIS SHOULD

GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SHEAR AND SLOWLY

DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 13.3N 109.8W 45 KT

12HR VT 28/0600Z 13.7N 110.8W 55 KT

24HR VT 28/1800Z 14.0N 112.4W 60 KT

36HR VT 29/0600Z 14.2N 114.0W 60 KT

48HR VT 29/1800Z 14.2N 115.5W 55 KT

72HR VT 30/1800Z 14.0N 118.5W 45 KT

96HR VT 01/1800Z 14.0N 121.5W 40 KT

120HR VT 02/1800Z 14.0N 124.5W 35 KT

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

Latest image of Boris:

Also, very interesting to note is possible interaction with TD03E and another possible tropical cyclone to the east of Boris. Things are hotting up in the East Pacific!!

[kold weather]

Interaction would come from something to the east, currently nothing to see but the ECM is adament that something will get going out there between 72-96hrs.

Looking very good got a CDO present with deep convection over the center, mainly on the southern side of the center with some slight ENE shear still evident with hints of a exposed center but its also still got a cracking outflow on that southern side, I think thats really helping to ramp up this system. If i was to guess current strength I'd go a little high then the NHC estimates and say between 50-55kts.

In terms of future strength, its all going to depend on when and if the higher shear comes in. If it stay away from it then I think given the CDO present it could well make it to borderline hurricane strength, possibly peaking somewhere between 65-75kts, a little higher then the NHC indicates IF shear stays light. IF shear comes in sooner....which is looking possible....then max strenght maybe only upto 50-55kts. We shall just have to see as per normal.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates guys

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200802.html

[summer blizzard]

000

WTPZ42 KNHC 280826

TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008

200 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA

THAT THE CENTER OF BORIS IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP

CONVECTION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR

ALREADY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT

CHANGED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. THE SHIPS

MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER. IN

FACT...IT ASSUMES THAT BORIS HAS ALREADY PEAKED. IN ADDITION...MOST

OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DECOUPLING THE CYCLONE BY KEEPING THE

LOW-LEVEL PORTION MEANDERING WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CONTINUES

WESTWARD. FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED

BUT A LITTLE LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BORIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES

AT 6 KNOTS. ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE DOES NOT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY

AND CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE MID LEVELS...A GENERAL WESTWARD

TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 14.0N 112.1W 45 KT

12HR VT 28/1800Z 14.2N 113.2W 50 KT

24HR VT 29/0600Z 14.5N 115.0W 50 KT

36HR VT 29/1800Z 14.5N 116.5W 45 KT

48HR VT 30/0600Z 14.5N 118.0W 40 KT

72HR VT 01/0600Z 14.5N 120.5W 35 KT

96HR VT 02/0600Z 14.5N 123.5W 30 KT

120HR VT 03/0600Z 14.5N 126.5W 30 KT

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

Looks like they expect Boris to peak as a moderate Tropical Storm.

[Somerset Squall]

Strong northerly shear continues to affect Boris. The circulation centre is partially exposed with the deepest convection to the south. Intensity remains at 45kts, and Boris is unlikely to get any stronger. Shear is expected to persist and eventually Boris will move over cooler waters which should reduce Boris to a remnant low by 120hrs according to the NHC. A possible complication is interaction with TS Cristina and/or the disturbance to the east of Boris, but neither are looking likely at the moment. If it were to happen, Boris' westwards track would be interupted.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates mate.

[kold weather]

Boris looks aobut steady right now, indeed with a large convective burst presne tit may even be a touch stronger then is currently estimated, I'd guess 50kts but the basic structure with Boris remains unchanged, with shear now from the north displacing convection well onto the southern side of the circulation. Microwave imagery shows a slight wrap round on the northern side which maybe a partial eyewall trying to form but I suspect nothing will come of it thanks to the shear levels present.

[Somerset Squall]

I think Boris may be making an effort to become a hurricane going by this latest image, definitely becoming stronger I think:

[kold weather]

Quite possibly SS the eyewall I noted at 6pm indeed has become a little better defined and a noticeable eye has formed. Sat estimates now upto 60kts as well, though NHC will probably only increase to 55kts probably unless huge improvements continue to occur. Looking a totally different storm from 12hrs ago, amazing how a relaxation in shear can allow a system to reorganise to quickly.

[Cookie]

Its never over till its over!

[Somerset Squall]

Boris very near hurricane strength:

TROPICAL STORM BORIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008

500 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO INCREASE THE INITIAL AND

FORECAST INTENSITIES OF BORIS. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A

RAGGED EYE HAS BEEN APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN

ADDITION...A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL

CENTER OF BORIS IS REASONABLY CO-LOCATED WITH THE VISIBLE EYE

FEATURE. THE CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES THE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE TO

BE JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...THE ADVISORY

INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.

WHILE BORIS COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH TONIGHT...THE GENERAL

SLOW WEAKENING SCENARIO FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IS RETAINED. THE

TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0000Z 14.8N 117.8W 60 KT

12HR VT 30/0600Z 14.7N 118.5W 60 KT

24HR VT 30/1800Z 14.6N 120.0W 50 KT

36HR VT 01/0600Z 14.5N 121.5W 40 KT

48HR VT 01/1800Z 14.5N 122.5W 35 KT

72HR VT 02/1800Z 14.5N 124.5W 30 KT

96HR VT 03/1800Z 14.5N 126.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 04/1800Z 14.5N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[kold weather]

Interesting the same Sat.estimates that caused the NHC to up winds to 60kts now are at 65kts which would be hurricane strength, will be interesting if next adivsory they go along with that or hiold at 60kts. Ragged eye feature has gone since a couple of hours ago but deep convection has taken its place which is always a good sign for a strengthening system to have strong convective burst. Underneath the deep convective pattern there will still probably a ragged eye feature though I've not seen the microwave imagery to know for sure.

[Somerset Squall]

Well, it appears Boris just fell short of hurricane strength, and has now weakened to 55kts. Gone is the banding eye and Boris has lost it's healthy shape due to unfavourable conditions of cooler waters and stable air setting in (much the same as Cristina). Boris is expected to slowly wind down over the next couple days as it pushes generally westwards along the southern periphery of the subtropical steering ridge to the north. There is a slim chance of interaction with invest 96E, particularly if it develops, but the eastwards turn that is being hinted at is unlikely IMO.

[Cookie]

It feel likes england failing to get to the euros with Boris failing to make it to hurricane strength :o

[James M]

Seems like it reintensified and did make Hurricane strength after all.

[kold weather]

Yep it sure has become a hurricane, large eye has formed and it does appear to be close if not actually an Annular system, very interesting to see, in some ways reminds me of Epsilon in 2006.

[Cookie]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...at.html#a_topad

[Somerset Squall]

Yeah, as Cookie's image shows, Boris is in pretty good shape. So, we have the first hurricane of 2008. And the fact that it may have some annular characterisitics is interesting. Will Boris begin to weaken now over slowly decreasing sea temps or will the annular properties sustain Boris as a hurricane a while longer? A case of wait and see as always

[Cookie]

Im confused so first hurricane in pacifc season thought they where just hurricanes in the atlantic?

[James M]

Im confused so first hurricane in pacifc season thought they where just hurricanes in the atlantic?

I always thought it was:

Hurricane - Atlantic, NE Pacific

Cyclone - Indian Ocean, SW Pacific

Typhoon - NW Pacific

Someone will correct me if I'm wrong though

[dallas]

"hurricane" (the North Atlantic Ocean, the Northeast Pacific Ocean east of the dateline, or the South Pacific Ocean east of 160E)

"typhoon" (the Northwest Pacific Ocean west of the dateline)

"severe tropical cyclone" (the Southwest Pacific Ocean west of 160E or Southeast Indian Ocean east of 90E)

"severe cyclonic storm" (the North Indian Ocean)

"tropical cyclone" (the Southwest Indian Ocean)

Hope it helps, just a cut and paste from NOAA