Hurricane Bertha (Was category-3)

[Somerset Squall]

Out of interest what's number one?

Hurricane/Typhoon John which existed in the east/central/west Pacific in 1994. Lasted 31 days.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_John_(1994)

For the Atlantic, it's Hurricane Ginger in 1971, which incidentally is also the second longest lasting worldwide on record.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ginger_(1971)

[Cookie]

intreasting alert

Storm Alert issued at 19 Jul, 2008 3:00 GMT

Hurricane BERTHA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Iceland

probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Reykjavik (64.1 N, 21.9 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[The PIT]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/brack2.gif

Goodbye Bertha!!

Say again

Regards Bertha.

Hurricane/Typhoon John which existed in the east/central/west Pacific in 1994. Lasted 31 days.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_John_(1994)

For the Atlantic, it's Hurricane Ginger in 1971, which incidentally is also the second longest lasting worldwide on record.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ginger_(1971)

Strange neither of the articles are there.

[Cookie]

torm Alert issued at 19 Jul, 2008 15:00 GMT

Hurricane BERTHA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Iceland

probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Reykjavik (64.1 N, 21.9 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[MAF]

seems to be dying down though

From NOAA

AND BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY.

[Cookie]

the image above puts it straight at Iceland

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 19 Jul, 2008 21:00 GMT

Hurricane BERTHA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Iceland

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Reykjavik (64.1 N, 21.9 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

[MAF]

Do Iceland get many Hurricanes/TS's then Cookie? B)

[The PIT]

Do Iceland get many Hurricanes/TS's then Cookie? B)

I would say it gets a few ex Hurricanes. I'd be surprised it old Bertha stays a hurricane that long though. Well very surprised. Perhaps it'll come this way instead and become annular.

[James M]

I would of thought they meant the equivalent of TS force winds for Iceland, it couldn't remain tropical that far north could it?

Edited July 19, 2008 by James M

[Paranoid]

Hurricane Faith in 1966 was still tropical when it hit the Faroes. I think it was still at Cat 2 strength as well, so it has happened, but it's very rare.

I think Bertha is meant to be absorbed by another further south of Iceland, so i doubt it'll still be tropical when it hits Iceland. TS strength winds are likely regardless however.

Edited July 19, 2008 by Paranoid

[James M]

Hurricane Faith in 1966 was still tropical when it hit the Faroes. I think it was still at Cat 2 strength as well, so it has happened, but it's very rare.

I think Bertha is meant to be absorbed by another further south of Iceland, so i doubt it'll still be tropical when it hits Iceland. TS strength winds are likely regardless however.

Well you learn something new everyday, thanks.

[Paranoid]

You'd be amazed at what you learn when you're bored and also on wikipedia B)

[Cookie]

Hurricane Faith in 1966 was still tropical when it hit the Faroes. I think it was still at Cat 2 strength as well, so it has happened, but it's very rare.

I think Bertha is meant to be absorbed by another further south of Iceland, so i doubt it'll still be tropical when it hits Iceland. TS strength winds are likely regardless however.

thanks for answering that mate

[The PIT]

thanks for answering that mate

Cop out B)

[Cookie]

Cop out B)

why?

I didn't know so was good someone else answered it

[MAF]

well thats something new I've learnt. thanks guys.

Pit, if it changed direction and came our way, do you think someone will phone into the Beeb and ask if there is a hurricane on the way? B)

[peterf]

well thats something new I've learnt. thanks guys.

Pit, if it changed direction and came our way, do you think someone will phone into the Beeb and ask if there is a hurricane on the way? B)

nah they all in bed now :o

[Cookie]

well thats something new I've learnt. thanks guys.

Pit, if it changed direction and came our way, do you think someone will phone into the Beeb and ask if there is a hurricane on the way? :lol:

:lol: :lol: :lol:

[Roger J Smith]

Looking at the latest (00z) GEM regional guidance, the extratropical remnants will be rapidly absorbed around 12z Monday south of Iceland by a low southwest of Reykjavik at that time, so the wind field is likely to be deformed to just strong southerlies in eastern Iceland, and a complex area of light winds between the former extratropical storm and the absorbing low. There may be some brief storm force winds from an easterly direction in this transitional phase along the south coast of Iceland, but from about 18z Monday onward, the storm will only be generating strong winds in its warm sector, which will be heading for Svalbard in 72 hours. Cookie, you might see the remnants of the trailing cold front late Monday or on Tuesday perhaps, but winds there are not likely to pick up much if any.

[Cookie]

thanks roger.

Storm Alert issued at 20 Jul, 2008 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm BERTHA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Iceland

probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Reykjavik (64.1 N, 21.9 W)

probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Bertha is now completing extratropical transition, and convection is now very shallow. Bertha has lasted 17 days as a tropical cyclone.

[Muffelchen]

Hurricane/Typhoon John which existed in the east/central/west Pacific in 1994. Lasted 31 days.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_John_(1994)

For the Atlantic, it's Hurricane Ginger in 1971, which incidentally is also the second longest lasting worldwide on record.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ginger_(1971)

What about the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1899_Hurricane_San_Ciriaco

[Somerset Squall]

What about the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1899_Hurricane_San_Ciriaco

Yep, my mistake. Ginger is third then.

[Muffelchen]

Yep, my mistake. Ginger is third then.

They don't seem to make them like this any more. The retrograde motion with Ginger was pretty cool. I think I read about that hurricane somewhere before.

Wonder if we will get a Cat 5 this year? If so, let's hope it's a fish.....