Hurricane Dolly

[Somerset Squall]

We finally have Dolly, from the very slow developing 94L:

WTNT24 KNHC 201539

TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008

1545 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

AT 1145 AM EDT...1545 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE

BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE

WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 84.2W AT 20/1545Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.

34 KT.......100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

12 FT SEAS..100NE 175SE 100SW 60NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 84.2W AT 20/1545Z

AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.7N 86.3W

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.1N 89.5W...INLAND OVER YUCATAN

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.2N 92.2W...OVER GULF OF MEXICO

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W

MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 96.0W

MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 97.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.0N 100.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 84.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

Edited July 20, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Paranoid]

We've got a full advisory now

000

WTNT34 KNHC 201542

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008

1145 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE WESTERN

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT 1145 AM EDT...1545 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE

BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE

WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1145 AM EDT...1545Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270

MILES...435 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 MILES...365

KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A

NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS

TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON

MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE DOLLY REACHES

THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY

ONCE DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM

FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM

FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TODAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE

NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH

ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4

INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP

TO 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1145 AM EDT POSITION...18.4 N...84.2 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500

PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[Cookie]

afternoon dolly

[summer blizzard]

Its unfortunate that its not going to thread the needle otherwise it could have been something special, however as long as it survives its land trip, i expect a Texan landfall as a category 2 hurricane.

[dallas]

If Dolly can stay away from any mountainous land, maybe it will retain enough circulation to build into a hurricane in the GOF

[Muffelchen]

The question is are they running the models from the right location. Dolly's circulation formed further North than yesterday's deep convection and, looking at the latest statellite, I think it is still further North than the position shown on the tracking map. If so, it might just thread the needle.....

[Paranoid]

Well, the models earlier today (whilst Dolly was 94L) had it going across the Yucutan, soo.. it's possible they're still using those models and haven't taken account of the new circulation.

[dallas]

The question is are they running the models from the right location. Dolly's circulation formed further North than yesterday's deep convection and, looking at the latest statellite, I think it is still further North than the position shown on the tracking map. If so, it might just thread the needle.....

Good point, see what the next recon brings

[Muffelchen]

Just looked at the latest IR loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

It looks like it is going through the gap.

[dallas]

Just looked at the latest IR loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

It looks like it is going through the gap.

I wonder if they were expecting a curve caused by a ridge somewhere

[Paranoid]

Well... if it goes through the gap, then that means it's more likely to become a hurricane, especially if it crosses the loop current. That's what gave Katrina and Rita such a boost in 2005.

From that sat-loop, it looks like it might go over the western side of Cuba and head towards the central southern states.

Are there any synoptic charts for the area?

Edited July 20, 2008 by Paranoid

[dallas]

The latest discussion from NOAA that if it does reach the GOF the SST are favourable for development for Dolly

[Paranoid]

What's the GOF? Gulf of Florida? I should probably know this but i dont recognise the name...

[dallas]

What's the GOF? Gulf of Florida? I should probably know this but i dont recognise the name...

Ha Ha sorry meant GOM Gulf of Mexico, was watching the British open at time of typing!

[Paranoid]

Ahhhh righty got you now

The mystery is solved

[kold weather]

Sadly I've not got time to post but this may encounter pretty good conditions in the Gulf, upper high aloft may well lalow for some pretty quick development. Needs to be watched closely!

If I had to make a punt, 55kts into Yucatan, Yucatan hit near Cancun then into GoM at 40kts followed by rapid strengthening upto cat-2/3...

ps, yes models are too far SW, looking likely Texas will get some effects from Dolly.

Edited July 20, 2008 by kold weather

[Muffelchen]

Yep, I think the NHC are underestimating this one due to incorrect initialisation position. I remember Wilma, Felix and Humberto and how fast they strengthened. I think this could well happen with this system. Everything is set up right and it has 'the look'.

Let's hope the NHC are right and I am wrong!

[Paranoid]

On the subject of which centre the NHC used... i think it's definately too far south judging from their track forecast

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:2008_04L_5-day_track.gif

[Iceberg]

The NHC centre is plotted on the below, this could well be right. It's still likely to go on a more northerly course than suggested, with a little trip of you Yucatan.

I am going for a Galveston CAT 4 hit, it's might well slow right down just prior to landfall which would not be good.

[Paranoid]

Hmm, i was wondering about that burst of convection there. It seemed to flare up rapidly in the last few frames of the sat loop.

Ah, new advisory

000

WTNT34 KNHC 201758

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008

200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...DOLLY ORGANIZING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY

NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS

THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF

MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250

MILES...400 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 MILES...320

KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A

NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON

THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF

MEXICO ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE DOLLY REACHES

THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY

ONCE DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM

FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM

FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TODAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE

NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH

ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4

INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP

TO 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...84.5 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

500 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

Edited July 20, 2008 by Paranoid

[Mondy]

Interesting system, watch and see, I guess

[turna]

most models have dolly hitting the yukatan, the defining factor will be how long a path she has across it, as to whether she will have chance to re-organise into a major storm once out in the gulf.

[kold weather]

The NHC centre is plotted on the below, this could well be right. It's still likely to go on a more northerly course than suggested, with a little trip of you Yucatan.

I am going for a Galveston CAT 4 hit, it's might well slow right down just prior to landfall which would not be good.

Who knows Iceberg, that is quite a scary forecast, I want to see how this handles the Yucatan first before making a more detailed forecast of what I thinkwill happen, right now Texas and Mexico both need to keep a close eye on this system. Current motion looks to be between 295-305, so WNW though more on the northerly side of that.

[Cookie]

First alert for this storm

Storm Alert issued at 20 Jul, 2008 15:45 GMT

Tropical Storm DOLLY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for TS is 100% within 8 hours

Cuba

probability for TS is 75% within 8 hours

Belize

probability for TS is 65% in about 20 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Cancun (21.0 N, 87.0 W)

probability for TS is 100% in about 20 hours

Cozumel (20.4 N, 87.0 W)

probability for TS is 95% within 8 hours

Merida (21.0 N, 89.6 W)

probability for TS is 90% in about 20 hours

Campeche (19.9 N, 90.5 W)

probability for TS is 65% in about 32 hours

Chetumal (18.5 N, 88.3 W)

probability for TS is 65% in about 20 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Honduras

probability for TS is 50% currently

the United States

probability for TS is 45% in about 68 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Brownsville (25.9 N, 97.5 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 68 hours

San Fernando (24.8 N, 98.2 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 68 hours

Belize City (17.5 N, 88.2 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 20 hours

Corpus Christi (27.7 N, 97.3 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 92 hours

Armstrong (26.9 N, 97.8 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 68 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Mondy]

http://www.vorklift.com/temp/04LWND.GIF