Hurricane Dolly

[tornadomanuk]

Just a quick one to say I have a link here for the Brownsville area of South Texas News/Weather - this area is looking likely to be almost a direct hit from Dolly, so I'm tending to view this site from time to time to keep up-to-date on the latest developments.

http://www.krgv.com/

Better stick a link up for Corpus Christi too, just incase.

http://www.kristv.com/

Edited July 22, 2008 by tornadomanuk

[Iceberg]

988.8mb recently recorded and flight winds of 63Kt.

This isn't far from hurricane strength now. Should be there by tea-time.

A rought guide of 2mb an hr seems to be happening atm.

[Paranoid]

I can't find the tropical floater (hehe) sat loop for this, has anyone got the link?

[James M]

I can't find the tropical floater (hehe) sat loop for this, has anyone got the link?

Is this what your looking for?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Edited July 22, 2008 by James M

[Paranoid]

Ahh that's the one :lol:

Danke

[Iceberg]

Now 60Kt so 5 shy of a hurricane.

There is an open eye wall 20 miles across, open to the west according to the latest Vortex.

A USAF plane is now on the way to provide the next lot of recon.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS

GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE REPORTED AN

ISOLATED PEAK OF 65 KNOTS...A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND AN

OPEN EYEWALL OF 20 NMI IN DIAMETER. SSMI DATA SHOWS THE EARLY

STAGES OF A CONVECTING RING AROUND THE CENTER. CONVECTIONAL

SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH A LITTLE

BETTER DEFINED OUTFLOW. BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60

KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER DOLLY.

THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH WARM WATERS SHOULD

RESULT IN STRENGTHENING. BOTH GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS

HAVE GONE UP AND DOWN WITH EACH RUN...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS

UPWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS DOLLY TO 80 KNOTS AT

LANDFALL...5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN INDICATED BY ALL GUIDANCE.

[Iceberg]

Intensification seems to be on hold for now, Dolly is still winding up but is clearly open to the west.

[Mondy]

[dallas]

Almost there, just a bit more tightening of the bands, hopefully for the costal residents it won't have too much time to intensify...............but you never know with the high sea temps

[tinybill]

my eye of the storm 3000 porgram is now saying she is a hurrican and as some one said it is browsville is the place

[Mondy]

Well worth to watch these webcams soon:

http://www.spadre.com/

[Mondy]

Perfect. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?ri...11&loop=yes

[Mondy]

Down to 988mb.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008

A. 22/18:45:40Z

B. 24 deg 21 min N

095 deg 00 min W

C. 700 mb 2989 m

D. 57 kt

E. 132 deg 043 nm

F. 222 deg 049 kt

G. 129 deg 014 nm

H. 988 mb

I. 13 C/ 3050 m

J. 13 C/ 3047 m

K. 6 C/ NA

L. OPEN SW

M. NA

N. 1234 / 7

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF307 1604A DOLLY OB 08 CCA

MAX FL WIND 68 KT NW QUAD 18:52:30 Z

SFC CNTR 130 / 10NM FROM FL CNTR

MAX FL TEMP 14 C 128 / 11NM FROM FL CNTR

No definite eyewall on the recon obs, but since then I think an eye is forming

[Iceberg]

Recon have just found 986mb and 72Kt flight winds using the 10% rule this would just make her a hurricane, maybe in time for the latest advisory but maybe not.

The eye is now visable on WV imagery as well, might be a CAT 2 by morning.

[Mondy]

No eye yet, but almost formed: LINK

[Paranoid]

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN

HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008

400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...DOLLY BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE 2008 HURRICANE

SEASON...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM

BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF

MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO

AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY

SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS

CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA

PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...

265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.

THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO

OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE

LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160

MILES...260 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH

THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS

986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10

INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH

TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE

TEXAS COASTS.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.6 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000

PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Iceberg]

We now have Hurricane Dooly.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.

[kold weather]

Recon found surface estimate in the SW side of 65kts within the explosive convection now forming in the eyewall, also Dvorak numbers now also support a hurricane upto 4.0, flight level winds in the Ne quadrant of 71kts also adds further evidence so its not al lthat surprising its now a hurricane.

I suspect with the eyewall wrapping around, the eye slowly getting more evident and some really explosive convection in the western side of the hurricane, I think we may well see some pretty rapid strengthening and I agree with Iceberg this may well make it upto category-2 pretty quickly, no reason IMO why it can't be a cat-2 at landfall.

[smich]

Hi all,

Looking at the radar, track seems to be NNW, so a lot of warm water before landfall....we often forget the energy provided by the sun to these storms, so I expect strengthening to stall somewhat overnight, before picking up again tomorrow - almost certain to be a cat 2 storm within 24hrs given the environment.

smich

Wow! Just loaded up the visible loop from the NHC site ------- that's a wrap!

smich

[James M]

DOLLY IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY THE NWS RADAR FROM

BROWNSVILLE...NOAA BUOYS..SATELLITE AND VERY IMPORTANTLY...BY AN

AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT. THE RADAR IS MEASURING 75

KNOTS AT ABOUT 20 THOUSAND FEET AND SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ALREADY

APPROACHING THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DOLLY IS A HURRICANE AND WIND DATA

JUST RECEIVED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAVE CONFIRMED IT.

INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS. WITH THE PREVAILING LOW

SHEAR...DOLLY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST A LITTLE BIT STRONGER.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.

THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A

SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF DOLLY

SHOULD BE NEAR THE US/MEXICO BORDER WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON

WEDNESDAY. DOLLY IS LARGE CYCLONE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS

WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER LANDFALL...DOLLY

SHOULD TURN MORE TO WEST AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH

OF THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT

BRINGING THE CORE OF DOLLY INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE

RE-EMPHASIZED THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST

NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AT LANDFALL...DOLLY COULD DUMP VERY HEAVY

RAINS IN THE AREA.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Cookie]

last then 24 hrs till landfall.

so a night time landfall?

Storm Alert issued at 22 Jul, 2008 21:00 GMT

Hurricane DOLLY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Brownsville (25.9 N, 97.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Fernando (24.8 N, 98.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours

Armstrong (26.9 N, 97.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours

Corpus Christi (27.7 N, 97.3 W)

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Port Lavaca (28.6 N, 96.7 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Paranoid]

000

WTNT34 KNHC 222359

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008

700 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...DOLLY CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM

BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF

MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO

AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY

SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS

CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA

PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...

205 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR...AND

THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL OF THE CENTER OF

DOLLY ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN

TEXAS NEAR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160

MILES...260 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH

THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10

INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH

TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE

TEXAS COASTS.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...24.9 N...95.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Iceberg]

Dolly is clearly visable from doppler now at brownsville.

Below is the latst Vortex and radar picture which shows the eye very very clearly. I still think that this will be a Texas landfall between BV and CC, the amazing thing is how slow she's moving. NHC's latest forecast talks about 15inchs possbiltiy being on the low range. Dolly although not incredibly powerful will still contain a wide berth of very strong winds and the potential for over half a meter of rain in places in 24hrs.

It looks like a slow progress of the eye onshore will be the think to watch.

000

URNT12 KNHC 230517

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008

A. 23/04:56:50Z

B. 25 deg 14 min N

096 deg 10 min W

C. 700 mb 2922 m

D. 58 kt

E. 227 deg 12 nm

F. 323 deg 058 kt

G. 227 deg 011 nm

H. 982 mb

I. 10 C/ 3047 m

J. 13 C/ 3051 m

K. 12 C/ NA

L. OPEN S

M. C23

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF304 1804A DOLLY OB 13

MAX FL WIND 75 KT NE QUAD 05:04:20 Z

MAX SFC WIND 69 KT NE QUAD 05:02:30 Z

Edited July 23, 2008 by Iceberg

[opplevelse]

Nice little storm, but still a baby. Looking good on the radars

Well worth to watch these webcams soon:

http://www.spadre.com/

Good find! Right on the border with mexico, smack bang in the firing line.

[Mondy]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0732.html