The strongest el nino event for 10 years

[snowmadchrisuk]

Interesting news reports coming out regarding el nino forming. I really hope a certain uk newspaper does not get hold of this story.

The link below is the strongest el nino for 10 years story.. ill add to this as it progresses.

http://www.pacificmagazine.net/news/2008/0...-by-end-of-2008

[Nick L]

Being a relative novice, what does a strong el nino mean for the UK?

And is this the same David Dilley who goes by the name of GlobalWeatherOscillations on here?

Edited August 8, 2008 by nick2702

[stewfox]

Being a relative novice, what does a strong el nino mean for the UK?

And is this the same David Dilley who goes by the name of GlobalWeatherOscillations on here?

Yes in need , the report doesnt say anything about its 'impact'

[kold weather]

Not going to happen to that extreme I'm probably 100% certain of that.

Reason I can be bold is we've never had anything above a marginal El Nino (weak) after having a strong La nina the previous winter...indeed I believe only one year even made it to El Nino yet alone becoming strong and that was 1976-77.

also no hints of anything more then a maybe a 50-50 chance of a weak El Nino come latter half of the winter, that may be possible but strongest in 10 years...no chance.

Edited August 8, 2008 by kold weather

[jethro]

Not going to happen to that extreme I'm probably 100% certain of that.

Reason I can be bold is we've never had anything above a marginal El Nino (weak) after having a strong La nina the previous winter...indeed I believe only one year even made it to El Nino yet alone becoming strong and that was 1976-77.

also no hints of anything more then a maybe a 50-50 chance of a weak El Nino come latter half of the winter, that may be possible but strongest in 10 years...no chance.

1976-77 was the last time the PDO switched phase from negative to positive, this year it switched from positive to negative - perhaps these phase shifts throw up peculiarities? Anyone have any idea what happened in the previous phase shift?

[kold weather]

Possibly its hard to say, it certainly was an impressive turnaround though back then...

Latest forecast from the CFS suggests if anything we've got a better chance of La Nina then El Nino interestingly:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/anal...ino34SSTSea.gif

[Glacier Point]

... and the CFS was, up until last revision, going gun-ho for a Nino. The overall base state of the circulation is not predisposed to Nino conditions developing. We still have a -PDO regime which will fight any surface warming whilst warm sub-surface anomalies are diminishing.

This looks like a neutral first part of the winter, possibly tilted back towards Nina as time progresses.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Being a relative novice, what does a strong el nino mean for the UK?

And is this the same David Dilley who goes by the name of GlobalWeatherOscillations on here?

Strong El Nino would be disastrous for cold winter lovers in the UK.

BFTP

[karyo]

This looks like a neutral first part of the winter, possibly tilted back towards Nina as time progresses.

That's good! A strong el nino or la nina diminishes the chance for cold winter spells like we've seen so many times. Let's hope it stays neutral.

Karyo

[Gavin P]

Now we've moved to a negative PDO phase, I think we're going to see El Nino's increasingly struggling to get going. Thats not to say we will have no El Nino's, but I think they will be shorter and weaker than we came to expect until recently.

As far as this winter is conceed, I agree with GP. Neutral trending to weak or moderate Nina by spring 2009 looks the way forward to me.

Edited August 8, 2008 by Gavin P

[Roger J Smith]

My research points to a strong el Nino in about two years, late 2010 to early 2012 being the time window most favoured.

I wouldn't rule out a weak el Nino by the spring of 2009 but that might not sustain itself all the way into this stronger event that I am expecting.

This is all assuming we are not in the middle of nuclear winter.

[Terminal Moraine]

My research points to a strong el Nino in about two years, late 2010 to early 2012 being the time window most favoured.

I wouldn't rule out a weak el Nino by the spring of 2009 but that might not sustain itself all the way into this stronger event that I am expecting.

This is all assuming we are not in the middle of nuclear winter. B)

According to the ancient writings of the Maya there is to be some sort of cataclysmic event at the very end of 2012 which will bring about the end of civilisation as we know it, this is a damn shame as it's 6 months before I'm due to retire.

C'est la vie.

[BARRY]

According to the ancient writings of the Maya there is to be some sort of cataclysmic event at the very end of 2012 which will bring about the end of civilisation as we know it, this is a damn shame as it's 6 months before I'm due to retire.

C'est la vie.

British Olympics B)

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

British Olympics

Yes we get most gold medals of the games, our athletes are shown to be drugged to the eyeballs, China get none as their drugs weren't as good as ours...and they launch bringing Roger's nuclear winter,...and we get snow B)

To re-cap back on topic, David thinks a moderate El Nino which could reach strong [but not very strong], rapid warming in region from October to Dec probably peaking around new year and a brief El Nino potentially leading us into a La Nina by winter 09/10.

BFTP

[Cookie]

would a warmer winter mean a winder winter?

[SP1986]

would a warmer winter mean a winder winter?

Almost certainly, unless the Azores ridged up giving us a mid-winter heatwave (relatively speaking), but a prolonged mid-winter warm spell from the Azores high is very very very unlikely. More likely our old friend the jet and the gale.

[Cookie]

I wouldn't mind that,

thanks

Edited August 12, 2008 by cookie

[J07]

Even if the Azores high did ridge up, not sure it would get up as far as Scotland....I'd imagine the north would still end up fairly windy, probably aided by the fact that winds are stronger around a high anyway (for a given isobar spacing).