Tropical Storm Josephine

[Iceberg]

Set to become a Hurricane as well and a TS in the next advistory.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 23.9W AT 02/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 23.9W AT 02/0900Z

AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 23.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.9N 25.9W

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.6N 28.7W

MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.5N 31.1W

MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.4N 33.3W

MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.5N 38.0W

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.

34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 41.5W

MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 20.0N 46.0W

MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 23.9W AT 02/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 23.9W AT 02/0900Z

AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 23.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.9N 25.9W

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.6N 28.7W

MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.5N 31.1W

MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.4N 33.3W

MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.5N 38.0W

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.

34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 41.5W

MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 20.0N 46.0W

MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

Path keeps him out to sea atm but who knows.

[Jack Wales]

We now have TS Josephine!

000

WTNT45 KNHC 021450

TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008

1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN THE CYCLONE'S

ORGANIZATION...WITH VERY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND EVEN A

DECEPTIVE CENTRAL FEATURE DISGUISED AS AN EYE. THE CONVECTIVE TOPS

ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD IN THE INFRARED...BUT DVORAK INTENSITY

ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO

A TROPICAL STORM...THE TENTH OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON.

JOSEPHINE IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 28

CELSIUS...AND THE WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN AT

LEAST THAT WARM FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SHEAR IS

ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT OVER THE CYCLONE...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING

SEEMS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM...AND COULD BE RAPID GIVEN THE

INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND THAT THE SHIPS-BASED RI INDEX GIVES A

50% CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE IN THE NEXT 24

HOURS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...JOSEPHINE WILL TRAVERSE SLIGHTLY COOLER

WATERS...AND DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO

MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY

INCREASE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN THOUGH ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE

GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A WEAKENING TREND TO START BY 72 HOURS...TO

MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SIMPLY

SHOWS AN INTENSITY PLATEAU AT 60 KT IN THE LONGER TERM.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS BRISK ALONG A HEADING JUST NORTH OF DUE

WEST...OR 280/13...BUT THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED

SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND

AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS. A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE

EAST-CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY STEERING

MECHANISM...BUT THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO PROCEED

WESTWARD AND SHIFT TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS.

MEANWHILE...THE DEEP-LAYER LOW JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED

STATES WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF

JOSEPHINE...WHICH WILL PROBABLY JUST CAUSE A SLIGHT BEND TO THE

RIGHT AND A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION AT DAYS 3-5. MODELS ARE IN VERY

GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGE MARKEDLY...WITH

THE GFS TURNING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AND THE GFDL AND HWRF TAKING

IT NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SPLITS THE

DIFFERENCE AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS...WHICH IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH

OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 13.2N 25.3W 35 KT

12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.6N 27.4W 45 KT

24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.3N 29.9W 55 KT

36HR VT 04/0000Z 15.2N 32.4W 60 KT

48HR VT 04/1200Z 16.1N 34.9W 60 KT

72HR VT 05/1200Z 18.5N 39.5W 60 KT

96HR VT 06/1200Z 20.0N 43.5W 60 KT

120HR VT 07/1200Z 21.0N 47.0W 60 KT

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[johnholmes]

this was NOAA's take prior to the season starting

For 2008, the outlook indicates a 60 to 70 percent chance of 12 to 16 named storms, including 6 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).

[Coast]

So where's she off to then?

[Somerset Squall]

It appears Josephine has an eye!! Is Josephine rapidly intensifying perhaps?

[londonsnow]

i have a feeling about josephine. she may become a major storm

[tinybill]

Josephine could easily follow ike into the gulf at the moment

[knightstorm]

This system has plenty of time do develop as it crosses the Atlantic, things could get intense as we head towards the weekend!

[smich]

Evening,

Without sounding pessimistic for Josephine's prospects, it's fair to say that she has a lot of ground to cover, and areas of cooler water, and certainly some windshear to overcome. When a storm forms this far east, it's rare to survive the whole journey across the Atlantic.

I'm much more concerned about Ike, who is looking very organised at the mo'.

Steve M

[knightstorm]

Without sounding pessimistic for Josephine's prospects, it's fair to say that she has a lot of ground to cover, and areas of cooler water, and certainly some windshear to overcome. When a storm forms this far east, it's rare to survive the whole journey across the Atlantic.

I'm much more concerned about Ike, who is looking very organised at the mo'.

Yeah I think your right there Steve, especially with the temperature of the sea it has to pass over. There isn't much tropical moisture between it's current location and where it needs to get to!

[Somerset Squall]

Josephine is in very favourable conditions for the next 24 hours, after which waters are expected to cool and shear increase. The NHC mention Josephine has a 50% chance of rapid intensification (30kt increase over a 24 hour period) in the next 24 hours before conditions deteriorate afterwards.

[Mondy]

Evening,

Without sounding pessimistic for Josephine's prospects, it's fair to say that she has a lot of ground to cover, and areas of cooler water, and certainly some windshear to overcome. When a storm forms this far east, it's rare to survive the whole journey across the Atlantic.

I'm much more concerned about Ike, who is looking very organised at the mo'.

Steve M

Even at this early stage, I reckon Josephine will be a fish-spinner.

Btw, what's the chances of Ike and Hanna eventually interacting? Hanna is a slow complicated system, Ike is gathering pace.

[Cookie]

should make cat 1 by thursday

[Mondy]

...and back down to TS by Friday!

Worth watching all the same

[Cookie]

yup should have said that

[Jack Wales]

I'm intrigued by this one, as SS says an eye already apears to be forming, so with good convection, 29C sst's and no shear, Jospehine could get up to Cat 2 in the short term. If so she will be better poised to resist the progged shear and lower SST's later in the timeframe.

[Iceberg]

Jo will be a fish certainly and with the ridge pushing south she will really struggle and might just get sheared away.

[knightstorm]

Btw, what's the chances of Ike and Hanna eventually interacting? Hanna is a slow complicated system, Ike is gathering pace.

I think it's quite possible, and if they do merge together we'll have 'The Perfect Storm'

[Somerset Squall]

Josephine is really struggling now, as very hostile conditions take hold of the storm. Josephine is being battered by strong shear and convection is also waning due to dry air. Additionally, waters are getting cooler beneath Josephine. Shear is expected to persist or even become stronger and water temps are expected to taper off further so weakening is forecast. Conditions are expected to reman very hostile for the next few days and because of this, Josephine's survival really is in the balance, if things continue like they are now, Josephine could dissipate soon. Conditions are expected to become more favourable in 4 days time but this cannot be certain, plus Josephine has to battle for a long time to even get that far. A bleak outlook for Josephine.

[Coast]

All dressed up and nowhere to go?

[Jack Wales]

Josephine seems to have come back from the dead overnight with new convection bursting all over her, she is still being heavily sheared from the SW but with the additional convection she has a better chance of making it past 72 hours when conditions become more favourable.

[Coast]

'Not tonight, Josephine'

NHC have the windspeed up and down, but with her sister and brothers having developed continually along the way, Josephine could be one to watch.

[Cookie]

any new updates?

[Somerset Squall]

Josephine is nothing but a swirl of clouds now. Convection has dissipated after being sheared to the northeast. If convection doesn't come back Josephine will soon weaken to a remnant low. If Josephine survives for another 48-72hrs then warmer waters and lower shear will greet her and allow strengthening, but at the moment it looks like Josephine will really struggle to last that long.

[Cookie]

thanks somerset