Global Cooling

[jethro]

Solar, just because he hasn't been around, and repeating himself, for as long as you or me (though I've now given up) doesn't mean he isn't (i) welcome, and (ii) talking clearly and sensibly in the view of plenty of people here.

This isn't your private party - please don't be so rude.

I'm sure Solar didn't mean to be rude. It's just ground he and a lot of people on here have already covered, no one's fault, just another example of ebbs and flows when new members join and others leave; it's part of what keeps this place interesting.

Here's the latest from the World Climate Conference in Geneva, it's not particularly in-depth but does give a good over-view of the future, natural variation and the short falls of modelling.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17742-worlds-climate-could-cool-first-warm-later.html

[edveasey]

Thats okay actually found it amusing.

Look, I'm not a climate expert, I've kept weather records for 30 years, I have a deep interest in weather and climate and from what I've read, see and observe I seriously believe if the warming was not driven by man made influence then the last two decades would not have been so warm, as I can see no other explanation for this. To go through the past few years without a below (long term) average year despite the prolonged solar minima, la nina is odd, 2007 was in the top ten warmest years globally recorded that is plain wierd unless we accept that un-natural causes (not cosmic rays) are infact driving the climate.

okay I do accept it is possible that the long term feedback of the man made effects may not be predicted, but the evidence appears to be firming towards the consensus every year that goes by.

[jethro]

Thats okay actually found it amusing.

Look, I'm not a climate expert, I've kept weather records for 30 years, I have a deep interest in weather and climate and from what I've read, see and observe I seriously believe if the warming was not driven by man made influence then the last two decades would not have been so warm, as I can see no other explanation for this. To go through the past few years without a below (long term) average year despite the prolonged solar minima, la nina is odd, 2007 was in the top ten warmest years globally recorded that is plain wierd unless we accept that un-natural causes (not cosmic rays) are infact driving the climate.

okay I do accept it is possible that the long term feedback of the man made effects may not be predicted, but the evidence appears to be firming towards the consensus every year that goes by.

NONE of us are experts on here, apart from award winning wafflers maybe.

I accept and agree CO2 has contributed towards warming, just not as much as has been claimed previously. Over the last year or so, more attention has been paid to the natural drivers of climate with increasing acceptance that these have played a large role in the warming of recent years.

The problem with apportioning small periods of time as being as a consequence of any one single thing, are immense. Yes, the Sun's having a rest and has done for the last couple of years but that won't have an immediate effect - trouble is, no one can agree upon the time period for the length of the lag. All they can decide upon is there is a lag, could be two years, could be nine, depending upon who you listen to.

2007 being in the top ten warmest years isn't weird, it takes a long time for extra warmth to accumulate, it takes just as long for it dissipate.

[MR EXTREMES]

I'm sure Solar didn't mean to be rude. It's just ground he and a lot of people on here have already covered, no one's fault, just another example of ebbs and flows when new members join and others leave; it's part of what keeps this place interesting.

Here's the latest from the World Climate Conference in Geneva, it's not particularly in-depth but does give a good over-view of the future, natural variation and the short falls of modelling.

http://www.newscient...warm-later.html

very intresting post,

and talk of cooling thats without solar forcings,

very intresting but im in the strong opion that el ninos and the NAO,s have had a massive effect on our climate in regards to warming.

i would have thought that during ice ages NAO,S would have been none exsistent and as solar activity increased it warmed our planet enough to kick start the cycles again.

maybe we have contributed a little but the sure scale of our earth climate and solar output i would id of thought far outway man made contributions.

but i just gotta hunch that things are about to become far more complicated in the land of man made global warming,

and science with things set to get somewhat cooler than where used to.

but of coarse i dont know the trues answers but i dont think anyone does.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.terradail..._Trend_999.html

As you know I've had my questions about the PDO-ve phase (as to when it was a/expected, b/started) for a while now but it would appear that we have long cycle 'off world' cool drivers at play for the last few thousands of years....up until 1900 when the observed 'trend' went into reverse.

The heat/energy needed to 'offset' this cooling ,and throw it into reverse leading to the observed 'warming', must now be taken into consideration when looking for Jethro's 'lost heat'.

Maybe some of our number crunchers could give us some ball park figures as to how much energy it would take to stop the '0.2c per thousand years' drop in Arctic temps and produce the temp rises we have noted there (whilst taking into account the energy it took to melt over 1/2 the ice in the arctic basin.)

Edited September 7, 2009 by Gray-Wolf

[Solar Cycles]

Solar, just because he hasn't been around, and repeating himself, for as long as you or me (though I've now given up) doesn't mean he isn't (i) welcome, and (ii) talking clearly and sensibly in the view of plenty of people here.

This isn't your private party - please don't be so rude.

Sorry Ossie, my humour is a bit warped at times! What I actually meant was, we have been round in circles debating all of this!

[Methuselah]

Although I keep an open-mind re: the Solar Minimum (i.e. will it or won't it?) one thing is quite certain, IMO: as yet, there has been no global cooling!

[Solar Cycles]

Although I keep an open-mind re: the Solar Minimum (i.e. will it or won't it?) one thing is quite certain, IMO: as yet, there has been no global cooling!

I think most of us would agree on that, no cooling and no warming!

I think most of us would agree on that, no cooling and no warming!

Just correct that, no warming in the last 11 years! Phew I would have taken some flak for that!!!

[Gray-Wolf]

and why are we still warming when we ought to be cooling (see previous link)? Are we yet to discover a hidden warming driver that over-rides the long cycle planetary orbital lean that brings about the past 8 thousand years of arctic cooling?

[Methuselah]

Just correct that, no warming in the last 11 years! Phew I would have taken some flak for that!!!

That would make for an exciting thread, Solar...What's causing the neither warming nor cooling?

[Solar Cycles]

and why are we still warming when we ought to be cooling (see previous link)? Are we yet to discover a hidden warming driver that over-rides the long cycle planetary orbital lean that brings about the past 8 thousand years of arctic cooling?

GW, this warming that you only see, why do the rest of us not see the same?

[MR EXTREMES]

ive seen the warming in july and ive seen the warming in 2007 but not seen much other than that,

oh yeah ive also seen warming in pre 1998.

it depends how you look at it,

global temps have flatlined but there have been increases in temps and decreases in many places all over the globe but this is due to natural forcings due to normal climate variations.

and round and round we go i feel sick lol.

8 thousand years of arctic cooling so how old is the earth?

how many times in earth history has the earth cooled and warmed ?

and what caused this?

one thing i do know is the climate has warmed and cooled and it happen again and so on.

warming is most likely due to all the positive anoms all happening at once as you would expect thease things most likely cause a chain reaction of events with main culprit being the sun.

Edited September 7, 2009 by badboy657

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

You will have to show some very strong evidence to back that statement up.

The past 11 years is very good evidence thus far. All the previous ice core records show that CO2 follows warming, not precedes it...ALL THE RECORDS . If the 20th century was part of or in the cooling grand cycle then make no bones that the extra carbon pumped into the atmosphere by us would have been sunk. How much evidence do you need? AGW driver theory is sinking no doubt about that, having some warming feedback? another matter.

It is my belief and as I am not trying to cripple ordinary people or businesses with rip off taxes I simply don't have to provide any evidence...mind you the global temps are doing it for me. [sorry RR not a dig at you just an outburst] :lol:

BFTP

[jethro]

http://www.terradail..._Trend_999.html

As you know I've had my questions about the PDO-ve phase (as to when it was a/expected, b/started) for a while now but it would appear that we have long cycle 'off world' cool drivers at play for the last few thousands of years....up until 1900 when the observed 'trend' went into reverse.

The heat/energy needed to 'offset' this cooling ,and throw it into reverse leading to the observed 'warming', must now be taken into consideration when looking for Jethro's 'lost heat'.

Maybe some of our number crunchers could give us some ball park figures as to how much energy it would take to stop the '0.2c per thousand years' drop in Arctic temps and produce the temp rises we have noted there (whilst taking into account the energy it took to melt over 1/2 the ice in the arctic basin.)

That's a very confusing article GW, as such I think I'll defer any serious comment until I've investigated further. First thoughts are...

My understanding of the Arctic ice is that it is ocean based, thus displacing it's own volume - how can warming and melting of the ice sheets affect sea level (beyond thermal expansion) as claimed in this article? Are there any trees growing on the ice sheets, have there ever been? Where do these tree ring proxies come from? "Newly exposed dark soil" on the ice sheets? Confusing...

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, CO2 and Methane are GHG's capable of warming the atmosphere but, certainly in the case of CO2, it is wholly dependant upon positive feedback in the form of water vapour, to achieve the predicted level of future warming.

Can I just ask- can you show me some evidence for this assertion? I've read and re-read the IPCC's assessment reports and various related papers on AGW over the years, partly out of interest and partly due to research work commitments, and haven't seen any references to the reliance of CO2-induced warming on positive feedbacks re. the recent rate of warming. I have, however, seen a fair amount of evidence to suggest that the IPCC's projection of accelerated rate of warming in the 21st century relies largely on positive feedbacks, which is why if pushed into making a climate change prediction I would err on the low side of the IPCC's estimate range.

I have an open mind on this so am quite prepared to change stance on it if there's evidence I've missed that does show, or at least suggest, it to be true.

[PeteG]

..

My understanding of the Arctic ice is that it is ocean based, thus displacing it's own volume - how can warming and melting of the ice sheets affect sea level (beyond thermal expansion) as claimed in this article? Are there any trees growing on the ice sheets, have there ever been? Where do these tree ring proxies come from? "Newly exposed dark soil" on the ice sheets? Confusing...

I have always understood that an ice sheet is a land based feature and I can't remember ever hearing the Arctic Ice Cap called an ice sheet. I assume that the article is referring to the Greenland ice and that on some of the islands north of the N American mainland in which case sea level affects and "newly exposed dark soil" would be reasonable statements.

[jethro]

Can I just ask- can you show me some evidence for this assertion? I've read and re-read the IPCC's assessment reports and various related papers on AGW over the years, partly out of interest and partly due to research work commitments, and haven't seen any references to the reliance of CO2-induced warming on positive feedbacks re. the recent rate of warming. I have, however, seen a fair amount of evidence to suggest that the IPCC's projection of accelerated rate of warming in the 21st century relies largely on positive feedbacks, which is why if pushed into making a climate change prediction I would err on the low side of the IPCC's estimate range.

I have an open mind on this so am quite prepared to change stance on it if there's evidence I've missed that does show, or at least suggest, it to be true.

We're obviously at crossed purposes here, I said "the predicted level of future warming" - your statement above says the same thing.

PeteG - yes, confusing. It says the Arctic but makes no mention of Greenland which I'd presume has to be involved in order for the article to make sense.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I have to come clean and admit I didn't digest that bit in bold- in truth I was influenced by earlier conversations about CO2 having a small effect whereupon I usually raised that kind of question. In that other context much depends on what we define as "small", but I've got no arguments with the notion that it's probably considerably smaller on its own than is suggested by the IPCC's projections.

Warming in the Arctic may affect sea level rise, primarily from the melting of the great ice sheets, Overpeck said.

Looks like a case of a poorly worded statement to me. If "great ice sheets" was substituted with "Greenland ice sheet" then it would make much more sense.

[noggin]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1212676/Autumn-puts-early-leaves-turn-brown-drop-weeks-early.html

I hope this is OK in here!

May I quote Mr Ian Davies, head gardener at Minterne Gardens, Dorchester......re the coming of Autumn..

....."Of course there is variation, but it seems to be coming on earlier much more regularly over the last 10 years." He goes on to comment more specifically about leaf fall and fruiting as well.

Mr Davies' observations seem to tie in with those of us whose own observations have lead us to be of the opinion that the warming stopped about 10 years ago, that we have had our plateau and that the cooling is now underway.

Just a little anecdote that I thought I would throw in.

[weather eater]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1212676/Autumn-puts-early-leaves-turn-brown-drop-weeks-early.html

I hope this is OK in here!

May I quote Mr Ian Davies, head gardener at Minterne Gardens, Dorchester......re the coming of Autumn..

....."Of course there is variation, but it seems to be coming on earlier much more regularly over the last 10 years." He goes on to comment more specifically about leaf fall and fruiting as well.

Mr Davies' observations seem to tie in with those of us whose own observations have lead us to be of the opinion that the warming stopped about 10 years ago, that we have had our plateau and that the cooling is now underway.

Just a little anecdote that I thought I would throw in.

Certainly hope so but I cant say I've noticed autumn kicking in earlier in recent years, it was very noticeable, during the 90 and early 2000s that it was coming later, at least it seemed that way to me. I would be very interested to know if the number of recorded frosts in October/November has fallen since the late 80s.

[PeteG]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1212676/Autumn-puts-early-leaves-turn-brown-drop-weeks-early.html

....."Of course there is variation, but it seems to be coming on earlier much more regularly over the last 10 years." He goes on to comment more specifically about leaf fall and fruiting as well.

The only leaves I've seen falling have been ripped off by the wind or attacked by insects/disease and there's little sign of autumn colouring.

As far as earlier fruiting is concerned I would have thought that's more a sign of earlier springs than earlier autumns. If a plant takes,say,16 weeks from flower to ripe fruit and it flowers 2 or 3 weeks earlier then the fruit will be ripe 2 or 3 weeks earlier.

[Iceberg]

Maybe the Daily mail wasn't being entirely honest. Living in Dorset and currently being only 5 miles away from Bournmouth where that picture was taken I can honestly say I don't know what on earth that article is going on about.

I've travel the length of Dorset almost every day to go to work, frequently looking for signs of leaves falling etc and as yet nothing.

I wonder what Ian from Dorchester actually said.

[MR EXTREMES]

well i live in portsmouth and i have 100% noticed more so in the last few years autumn has been producing fruit alot earlier august was when i noticed it and this year has been a week or two even earlier.

i think theres more truth in this than people want.

just like last autumns early snowfall could it happen again this year well i for one think it could.

cooling is afoot but then thats my opion.

[Nights King]

Maybe the Daily mail wasn't being entirely honest. Living in Dorset and currently being only 5 miles away from Bournmouth where that picture was taken I can honestly say I don't know what on earth that article is going on about.

I've travel the length of Dorset almost every day to go to work, frequently looking for signs of leaves falling etc and as yet nothing.

I wonder what Ian from Dorchester actually said.

We have quite abit of leaf fall round here starting on many of the trees and alot going yellow/brown. The beech trees have not started yet though but then they are the last along with the ash trees to come into leaf late in May.

[BARRY]

Maybe the Daily mail wasn't being entirely honest. Living in Dorset and currently being only 5 miles away from Bournmouth where that picture was taken I can honestly say I don't know what on earth that article is going on about.

I've travel the length of Dorset almost every day to go to work, frequently looking for signs of leaves falling etc and as yet nothing.

I wonder what Ian from Dorchester actually said.

Well you can come and sweep the leaves of my patio