Hurricane Kyle

[Mondy]

Canadian Hurricane Centre

Crown Weather Services (some great links in there, TV, webcams etc)

[MAF]

Latest update from NOAA

Advisory 11

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE

NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205

MILES...335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

full text here > http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/280840.shtml?

[kaja]

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates guys

new update

Hurricane KYLE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours

Canada

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours

Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours

Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)

probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours

Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)

probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Bangor (44.5 N, 68.5 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)

probability for TS is 50% within 9 hours

Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)

probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Iceberg]

I have to disagree again with the NHC, Kyle is no longer tropical is at best a hybrid and probably extratropical.

I don't think any of the Hurricane Strength winds have come about due to warm core charecterics and are rather due to the forward motion and upper,maybe shear induced instability.

There just hasn't been the organised convection around the LLCC.

Kyle was Tropical when first classified as a TS though.

[MAF]

Advisory #12 issued by NOAA

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...

AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR

SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE

CENTER OF KYLE SHOULD PASS EAST OF THE COAST OF MAINE LATER TODAY

AND TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK

TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. KYLE IS MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS AND WEAKENING IS LIKELY

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS ON MONDAY.

full text here http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/281450.shtml?

[Mondy]

DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH AND POSITION OF KYLE

SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NOVA SCOTIA

COAST JUST AS KYLE PASSES WEST OF YARMOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN

EFFECT CONCURRENTLY FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

Hurricane or not, wind strength = hurricane force for Nova Scotia later

[Somerset Squall]

I have to disagree again with the NHC, Kyle is no longer tropical is at best a hybrid and probably extratropical.

I don't think any of the Hurricane Strength winds have come about due to warm core charecterics and are rather due to the forward motion and upper,maybe shear induced instability.

There just hasn't been the organised convection around the LLCC.

Kyle was Tropical when first classified as a TS though.

I have to agree. Kyle was upgraded to a hurricane when it's LLC was partially exposed, and even the NHC said that the hurricane strength winds were heightened by the forward motion of Kyle. Defintely not tropical now, no convection near the centre at all and the system is becoming frontal in nature.

[Roger J Smith]

Debs, this storm has veered off the NHC track and is now likely to hit land right about where you are, near Saint John NB, about midnight to 2 a.m. ADT ... or 04-06z ... and could pack quite a punch for localized areas, it is a very small storm at present that has reorganized to produce a tight centre and very strong winds near a developing eye feature. Whether it's truly tropical or not will be irrelevant because the main forecast problem is that only a narrow band of strong winds is likely, just to the east of the track of low pressure.

I will post a Canadian radar in a while showing the centre of the storm when it brushes the west coast of Nova Scotia around 21z. It will then head across the Bay of Fundy and hit the Saint John area after midnight. Winds will only start to rise to storm force an hour or two before it arrives, the wind field ahead of the storm is quite weak (E 20-30 mph basically) and then you will have to see which side of the centre you're on, winds to the west won't get much over NE 30 mph but to the east I would expect a burst of SW 40-60 mph for several hours with possible gusts to 80 mph. Rain should become heavy and thundery with the arrival of the core.

By 12z the storm will be north of Moncton in southeast NB and affecting mostly PEI and central NS with moderately strong winds; it will tend to die out quickly tomorrow.

More later.

[Cookie]

new update

thanks for the good poster roger

Storm Alert issued at 28 Sep, 2008 21:00 GMT

Hurricane KYLE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Canada

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)

probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)

probability for TS is 50% within 9 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[johnholmes]

it and its 'attendant' tropical storm I am watching as a possible threat to the Uk around next weekend

[Mondy]

it and its 'attendant' tropical storm I am watching as a possible threat to the Uk around next weekend

Indeed, wondered this much earlier today/yesterday: http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...t&p=1336455

[Roger J Smith]

Not much point in posting the radar because the system has sheared apart as far as rainfall is concerned, still some strong winds left, but most of the rain is well ahead of the centre now, or else wrapping around through eastern Maine.

Debs, if you happen to look in, I located your last known position on google earth, if you're still there, I didn't realize it was that far east of Saint John (almost 100 km) and so in fact you probably will be right in the path of Kyle's centre about 0200 local time. I guess with the shoreline jogging around to the north there is not much risk of a storm surge but the tides will be running high for sure, and you'll probably experience two or three hours of very strong winds from the SE then SW as the centre is likely to be just to your west then north at 0200-0300, thereabouts.

Here's a little map to show folks what I am rambling on about ...

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxx MAINE xxxxxxxxxxxx|xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx\xxxxxxxx NB xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYQM

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx\xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>xxxxxxxxxx YSJ xxxxxx Debs.......

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx..xx..............................@................

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx..............Bay of.........@................

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx...................Fundy.....@....p track...

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.................................@..................xxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxx..xx......................................X.xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx NS

xxxxxxxxxxx..............................................@.xx.xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxx..........................................Kyle....@.....YQI.xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xx...............................................22z...................xxxxx...

.............................................................................xx.

.

(YSJ is Saint John NB, a city of about 100,000 people, and YQI is Yarmouth NS a town of about 15,000, and YQM is Moncton, a city of about 60,000 in s.e. NB ... the coast between where I think that Debs lives and Moncton is Fundy National Park, an area of limestone cliffs, strange flowerpot formations, and the world's biggest tidal range -- Moncton is some distance inland up a tidal estuary).

The Brier Island weather station (the larger X) is at the northwest tip of Nova Scotia, I may mention weather reports from there in a couple of hours as Kyle goes over that point.

Edited September 28, 2008 by Roger J Smith

[Iceberg]

1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION

ASSOCIATED WITH KYLE...AND THE SYSTEM WAS UNCLASSIFIABLE USING THE

DVORAK TECHNIQUE. CONSEQUENTLY...KYLE IS CONSIDERED TO BE

EXTRATROPICAL AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. A QUIKSCAT PASS

AT 23Z SHOWED ONE HURRICANE FORCE WIND VECTOR. THE MAXIMUM WINDS

ARE ASSUMED TO HAVE DECREASED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND

ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KT. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS

THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER NEW BRUNSWICK.

At last they have de-classified Kyle.

[Roger J Smith]

Strong winds across western NS but the centre appears to have just missed Debs location by 10-20 miles to the south, currently near the eastern end of the Bay of Fundy, what's left of this system at any rate. Debs, if you happen to read this and you had very light winds overnight, as I suspect, that's because you were close to the northwest side of the core and there was a cancellation of the circulation winds and the forward speed of the system there. (SW 30 + NE 30 = 0).

[Cookie]

final warning issued on kyle in the early hours

Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2008 3:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm KYLE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Canada

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)

probability for TS is 100% currently

Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)

probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.