Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[carinthian]

Happy New Year everyone.

Winter certainly arrived in Canada. Mild start for our Russian friends. Ice formation again below average to the North of Western Europe, even though Svalbard is recording very low temperatures since the end of October. Very little ice development so far between Iceland and Greenland.. Hudson now almost solid with strong growth now in Davis Straights. The very latest atmospheric conditions would indicate an intensification now taking place of the split Polar Vortex. One centred over NW Territories and the other over the far NE Europe. Certainly the North Atlantic drift has kept the waters much much open again around Svalbard holding back the polar ice sheet. However, we should soon see some growth in the Kara and White Sea and later in the Gulf Of Bothnia. Again , the most impressive ice formation between Newfoundland and Baffin Bay.

C

[osmposm]

Thanks for the roundup, Carinth - though that seems to be the ice map for 12th November (or is my computer going mad?). I think this is the (Bremen) map for 1st January:

To add to your info, despite the cold spell the Baltic ice is still well below normal (and water temps well above) - indeed it's scarcely better than it was this time last year: http://www.fimr.fi/en/itamerinyt/en_GB/jaatilanne/#middle

Edited January 2, 2009 by osmposm

[Guest]

Checked the temps for Greenland last night and at +8C parts of the southwest were positively balmy.

[carinthian]

Thanks for the roundup, Carinth - though that seems to be the ice map for 12th November (or is my computer going mad?). I think this is the (Bremen) map for 1st January:

To add to your info, despite the cold spell the Baltic ice is still well below normal (and water temps well above) - indeed it's scarcely better than it was this time last year: http://www.fimr.fi/en/itamerinyt/en_GB/jaatilanne/#middle

Hi osmposm,

Thanks for that up todate map. I would have expected more ice formation to the North of Svalbard after such a long period of cold. Just shows how effective the N. Atlantic drift is in this part of the Arctic Ocean. Also the East Greenland current sending only limited amounts of ice flow southwards.

C

[Mikel Nimbus]

Thanks for the roundup, Carinth - though that seems to be the ice map for 12th November (or is my computer going mad?). I think this is the (Bremen) map for 1st January:

To add to your info, despite the cold spell the Baltic ice is still well below normal (and water temps well above) - indeed it's scarcely better than it was this time last year: http://www.fimr.fi/en/itamerinyt/en_GB/jaatilanne/#middle

But surely that is the wrong map also? It says 1 Jan 2008.

[osmposm]

But surely that is the wrong map also? It says 1 Jan 2008.

Yes, as I said in the post, the map for 1st January - the latest available when I made the post on 2nd January!

Ossie

Edited January 6, 2009 by osmposm

[snowsure]

Yes, as I said in the post, the map for 1st January - the latest available when I made the post on 2nd January!

Ossie

But it's 2009.

[Iceberg]

Here's the 2009 one.

And the higher res one.

[carinthian]

Here's the 2009 one.

And the higher res one.

Thanks for that picture Iceberg. At long last we have a latest report. Seems to be some improvement in the North Barent over the past week. Should soon receive the up-dated Cryosphere comparisons for a better analysis.

C

[oldsnowywizard]

Also the East Greenland current sending only limited amounts of ice flow southwards.

C

that isnt such a bad thing Carinth.. the below, shows that very little multiyear ice is being flushed out, which can only be a good thing for the coming summer..?

http://www.aari.nw.ru/clgmi/sea_charts/nor...008/n081222.gif

levels of ice extent on a par with last year. i would expect hood thickness in comparison though, due to the higher levels of multiyear, colder temps and faster overall ice growth in autumn/winter

[osmposm]

But it's 2009.

Yes, of course, I'm so sorry, Mickel/Snowsure - I was being unbelievably dense: it always takes me a couple of weeks to take the new year on board! :blush:

What I don't know is if that was the correct map (2009) wrongly labelled by Bremen, or the previous year's map. Doesn't matter much, I guess, as we definitely now have an even more up-to-date one.

Ossie

[oldsnowywizard]

positive news ... from the National Weather service for Alaska

ICE EDGE LOCATIONS IN THE BERING SEA ARE 30 TO 40 PERCENT ABOVE

NORMAL. ACTUAL ICE EDGE POSITIONS THIS YEAR ARE 60 TO 100 NM SOUTH OF

THE SAME TIME LAST YEAR. ICE IN COOK INLET IS 25 TO 35 PERCENT ABOVE

NORMAL AND EVEN GREATER IN KACHEMAK BAY.

THE YEAR GROUP FOR JANUARY IS 1975 FOLLOWED BY 2000. BOTH OF THESE

YEARS WERE DURING LONG PERIODS OF LA NINA CONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC.

THIS YEAR WE ARE ALSO IN A LA NINA THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO

THE SPRING. LA NINA WINTERS ARE USUALLY COLDER THAN NORMAL IN ALASKA.

SEA ICE CONDITIONS IN JANUARY 2000 WERE SLIGHTLY MORE SEVERE THAN IN

2009 AND SLIGHTLY LESS ADVANCED IN THE BERING DURING 1975.

THE BERING SEA AND COOK INLET WILL HAVE EXTREME ICE SEASONS THIS YEAR

WITH MUCH GREATER THAN NORMAL ICE AREAS. EXPECT THE ICE EDGE TO REACH

POSITIONS NEAR AND BEYOND THE BERING SHELF SEVERAL TIMES THROUGH

FEBRUARY AND INTO EARLY MARCH. ICE WILL MOVE IN AND OUT OF SAINT PAUL

WITH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS. ICE WILL SURROUND SAINT GEORGE AT

TIMES FROM LATE JANUARY THROUGH FEBRUARY. ICE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND

RETREAT THEN RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE BERING SIDE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA

THROUGH EARLY FEBRUARY.

ICE WILL CONTINUE IN LOWER COOK INLET INTO APRIL AND UPPER COOK INLET

THROUGH APRIL. ICE THICKNESS IN COOK INLET WILL GROW UP TO 30 TO 36

INCHES FOR AREAS NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND BY EARLY FEBRUARY.

[tcc]

Does this sound about right?

http://www.dailytech.com/Sea+Ice+Ends+Year...rticle13834.htm

[carinthian]

Does this sound about right?

http://www.dailytech.com/Sea+Ice+Ends+Year...rticle13834.htm

Hi ,

The ice amounts at the end of 1979 look almost identical to amounts today. Whether the report is about rate of increase or volume, I am not to sure. I would be very surprised if todays amounts is above say the 1979/2000 mean.

C

[Interitus]

This appraisal is quite sobering -

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMaste...l?entrynum=1177

[ghrud]

This appraisal is quite sobering -

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMaste...l?entrynum=1177

Any claims that this has been the first time the passage has opened up in recent history, say last 6000 years, is very doubtful. This area of the arctic has only been intensively studied since 1979....

...it was first navigated by Roald Amundsen in 1903–1906.

...and this was long before anybody new anything about man induced climate change.

[Interitus]

Any claims that this has been the first time the passage has opened up in recent history, say last 6000 years, is very doubtful. This area of the arctic has only been intensively studied since 1979....

...and this was long before anybody new anything about man induced climate change.

That is a poor attempt to put a positive spin on the facts!

It ignores the actual article, but with regards to the link to the northwest passage, it's clear Amundsen didn't simply 'sail' through but rather managed to pick himself through it.

[ghrud]

That is a poor attempt to put a positive spin on the facts!

It ignores the actual article, but with regards to the link to the northwest passage, it's clear Amundsen didn't simply 'sail' through but rather managed to pick himself through it.

I was attempting to sit on the fence actually and imply that this needs far more studying.

[osmposm]

....with regards to the link to the northwest passage, it's clear Amundsen didn't simply 'sail' through but rather managed to pick himself through it.

Indeed - and in any case what opened in '07 & '08 was the whole northerly deep water passage: the various variants on the southerly shallow water passage have often been open enough for small boats to pick their way slowly through. This is what was posted in August last year on the subject:

"......you're not seriously suggesting that Amundsen's slow, careful picking of his way through the shallow southerly passage over two years in 1903-1905 compares with last year's full opening of the northerly deep water passage, are you?............Amundsen's little 70 ft sealer Gjoa was specially ice-strengthened, by the way, and spent two winters locked in ice en route at the harbour now named after it. The start at the eastern end of the passage was straightforward: Amundsen said - and I presume that your quote also relates to this stage - that it "resembled a holiday excursion". But he added that the rest, he was certain, would not be so easy. And so it proved.

Less than a month after starting, on Sept 12 1903, Amundsen, sensing the advent of harder conditions, decided to lay up for the winter; they were frozen in by early October. They stayed there for nearly two years, engaged upon scientific study and learning Inuit ways, only setting off to the west again in August 1905. They successfully negotiated the rest of the shallow passage - as little as three feet deep in places - and cleared the Archipelago on the 17th. The full NW passage was technically not complete, however, and another winter was spent locked in ice in 1905-6 before they rounded the coast of Alaska and into the Bering Sea in the summer of 1906."

Ossie

[Typhoon John]

I think the point is being missed here. I don't really care if the arctic is the most ice free it has ever been (I suspect there's less than 1906 but that there's been less than now at some point). Surely what's more important is whether the ice can grow again to the highest levels ever recorded. IMO they almost certainly will.

[carinthian]

Morning, back to latest reports. The Bremen link shows a good picture of the polar ice edge advancing into the North Barent. Low temperatures of -20C and less over the past week around Svalbard have helped new ice development to extent southwards to beyond the polar station of Bjornoya, way out in the Barent Sea between North Cap and the main archipelago.

C

[Gray-Wolf]

Sea ice levels in either the northern hemisphere or globally are nowhere near 79' levels. A quick check with the data will show this. More info on the 09 ice thread in enviro.

[oldsnowywizard]

Sea ice levels in either the northern hemisphere or globally are nowhere near 79' levels. A quick check with the data will show this. More info on the 09 ice thread in enviro.

agreed, although levels now probably close to 91 or 97.. good thing is at the moment the negative anomoly is decreasing last seen at that level in 2004...Globally.

current ice extent has levelled off again and has done for the last week and a half. extent is now lower than this time last year.. Sea of Okhotsk letting us down a bit, as well as the usual Barents sea. Bearing again doing well and still way above normal.

the cold pool over the arctic over the last week or so seems to have shrunk allowing somewhat less cold air to be around some fo the fringe areas.. This is set to revers over the next week or so.. i would expect ice levels to start rising again shortly.

Using the GFS charts for the northern hemisphere its worth noting that the siberian high is set to move westward, bringing with it a vortex of very cold air.. early next week that colder pool of air hits Norway.. very unlikely to happen IMO but i wonder how far west it will get.. The siberian high moves towards Svalbard..

[oldsnowywizard]

further to the above. cold pooling set to intensify over the next week, widespread -25 to 45 degrees over the basin and russia.. (those colder temps are moving westward) ice levels have started to rise and will continue to do so.