Significant Near Easterly Misses

[high ground birmingham]

All the talk about a possible easterly at the beginning of February has reignited my memory of the last few years. I seem to remember on more than one occasion when an easterly was progged by the models in the reliable timeframe before disappearing on the charts. I also remember on one occasion when both the ECM and GFS going for an easterly about a couple of years ago but this disappeared.

My questions/issues here is:

What went wrong to scupper these easterlies?

When were these meant to occur?

What upper 850s were progged?

Does anyone have any saved charts too?

Thanks, hgb

[sundog]

I cant remember the details,im sure someone else will but the near misses of Jan 06 and i think it was late Feb 07 immediatly spring to mind.

[Yeti]

My "favourite" near-miss was February 2001. This could very easily have been like Jan 87, a massive cold pool, arctic high coming S, low heights...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00120010201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00120010203.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00220010203.gif

And finally:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00120010205.gif

Jet just couldn't dig far enough S. Now I did get over a foot of snow from that event but still, a disaster really considering the potential!

[reef]

My "favourite" near-miss was February 2001. This could very easily have been like Jan 87, a massive cold pool, arctic high coming S, low heights...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00120010201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00120010203.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00220010203.gif

And finally:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00120010205.gif

Jet just couldn't dig far enough S. Now I did get over a foot of snow from that event but still, a disaster really considering the potential!

That February 2001 event was the biggest near-miss ever. I suspect if we were here viewing the models back then it would have tracked right into the T+48 range before being scuppered. It was so close, even the BBC mentioned it (John Kettley I think?).

It really is the epitome of what always goes wrong with easterlies these days. Despite looking odds on in came that tiny shortwave, though many places in the North got some decent snow for a time (I believe we missed out).

[Interitus]

It was an even bigger near miss on the other side of the Pennines where for Manchester westwards there was no snow accumulation whilst Leeds etc. had over a foot.

I can remember Thursday 1st Feb, afternoon rain turned to heavy snow which settled in no time at all before returning to heavy rain for the rest of the evening and night. Temperatures were so marginal that the early half inch of snow partly remained despite over and inch of rainfall. The reports of snow depths in West Yorkshire confirmed what we missed.

I think the warmer air also meant surprisingly little snow for the usual spots such as Buxton and the Peak District.

[Moonstar]

It is all comming from the east!

http://212.100.247.145/gfsimages/gfs.20090...ctypeuktopo.png

[Rob]

this run does look good, however the runs this morning displayed a mild theme, so im not getting excitied just yet.

[Yeti]

It is all comming from the east!

http://212.100.247.145/gfsimages/gfs.20090...ctypeuktopo.png

this run does look good, however the runs this morning displayed a mild theme, so im not getting excitied just yet.

Going off at a tangent children!

[Summer of 95]

It was an even bigger near miss on the other side of the Pennines where for Manchester westwards there was no snow accumulation whilst Leeds etc. had over a foot.

I can remember Thursday 1st Feb, afternoon rain turned to heavy snow which settled in no time at all before returning to heavy rain for the rest of the evening and night. Temperatures were so marginal that the early half inch of snow partly remained despite over and inch of rainfall. The reports of snow depths in West Yorkshire confirmed what we missed.

I think the warmer air also meant surprisingly little snow for the usual spots such as Buxton and the Peak District.

I was living in Newcastle at the time, and despite nothing happening on the Thur/Fri I remember snow from about 10am-4pm on the Sunday leaving about 4 inches cover, which survived till about midday on Monday when milder damp conditions returned. In Shrewsbury surprise surprise there was no snow at all- what I remember most from that time was the most honest BBC TV forecast I've ever seen. It showed a low over central-northern England with the forecaster saying "To the north, definitely snow" (indicating north of a white line from about Belfast to Newcastle) and "To the south, definitely rain" (another white line I think roughly Liverpool to Lincoln) and the unforgettable "In between, we're not quite sure". I *think* this was the Saturday 10.25pm pre-Match of the Day forecast if there's a clip of it around anywhere.

The biggest disappointment from an easterly I can remember was early December 2002- 1045mb scandi high with over a week of sustained easterlies gave nothing but low cloud, occasional drizzle and constant 3-5C day and night.

[high ground birmingham]

I think it may have been January 2006. Was that when Moscow experienced near record breaking cold temps??

I think just a little of the cold air in Jan 2006 made it and did give some snow in the SE if i remember. Does anyone have the charts for Jan 2006 easterly near miss?

[Thundery wintry showers]

The February 2001 easterly was a disappointment on the Tyne & Wear coast as the airmass wasn't cold enough to overcome the warming effects of the North Sea, so a rather unpleasant day of blowing sleet/wet snow resulted. Meanwhile, just a few miles inland, there was a pronounced "snowline" with 3-4 inch cover just to the west of it. Had the easterly come off, it would have been easily cold enough to bring lying snow right out to the beach.

I think February 2001's easterly was scuppered for different reasons to most of the recent ones though. On that occasion, the jet didn't weaken and/or track far south enough, preventing the coldest air from penetrating south of northern Scotland. Recent near-misses have tended to have a vortex around Iceland and lows stalling to the W or NW, keeping the high stuck out over eastern Scandinavian whereupon the high slowly sinks south through Europe and the most we get is a 36-hour easterly with an inch of snow for Hastings.

I've often mentioned a belief that the regular posts about "northerlies don't deliver because of northerly tracking jets, shortwaves and cyclogenesis around Iceland, so easterlies are the saviour" are wide of the mark because those are the same factors that scupper most attempts at cold easterlies.

December 2002 was a classic illustration of the fact that if we have an easterly delivered from a Scandinavian High, the high has to be the right shape to bring about cold upper air, like it did in late December 2005- otherwise the result is a spell of average to cool cloudy nothingness.

Jan 2006 easterly near-miss:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060122.gif

Jan 2006 36-hour easterly with an inch of snow for Hastings:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060127.gif

[high ground birmingham]

The February 2001 easterly was a disappointment on the Tyne & Wear coast as the airmass wasn't cold enough to overcome the warming effects of the North Sea, so a rather unpleasant day of blowing sleet/wet snow resulted. Meanwhile, just a few miles inland, there was a pronounced "snowline" with 3-4 inch cover just to the west of it. Had the easterly come off, it would have been easily cold enough to bring lying snow right out to the beach.

I think February 2001's easterly was scuppered for different reasons to most of the recent ones though. On that occasion, the jet didn't weaken and/or track far south enough, preventing the coldest air from penetrating south of northern Scotland. Recent near-misses have tended to have a vortex around Iceland and lows stalling to the W or NW, keeping the high stuck out over eastern Scandinavian whereupon the high slowly sinks south through Europe and the most we get is a 36-hour easterly with an inch of snow for Hastings.

I've often mentioned a belief that the regular posts about "northerlies don't deliver because of northerly tracking jets, shortwaves and cyclogenesis around Iceland, so easterlies are the saviour" are wide of the mark because those are the same factors that scupper most attempts at cold easterlies.

December 2002 was a classic illustration of the fact that if we have an easterly delivered from a Scandinavian High, the high has to be the right shape to bring about cold upper air, like it did in late December 2005- otherwise the result is a spell of average to cool cloudy nothingness.

Jan 2006 easterly near-miss:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060122.gif

Jan 2006 36-hour easterly with an inch of snow for Hastings:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060127.gif

Hi TWS,

Was wondering whether you think that had the Feb 2001 easterly come off, then would it have been mentioned with other famous cold easterly spells such as Jan 87 and Feb 91. Would we be discussing things like....If only we had an easterly like jan 87, feb 91 or feb 01?? What would have the upper temps been had Feb 01 come off??

Thanks, hgb

[high ground birmingham]

Maybe this time we can hit the real deal

[Yeti]

Hi TWS,

Was wondering whether you think that had the Feb 2001 easterly come off, then would it have been mentioned with other famous cold easterly spells such as Jan 87 and Feb 91. Would we be discussing things like....If only we had an easterly like jan 87, feb 91 or feb 01?? What would have the upper temps been had Feb 01 come off??

Thanks, hgb

Most definitely. That spell had the potential to be just as cold as Feb 91, with bitterly cold -25 air over Scandinavia, just a few hundred miles away. The low heights on the S of the HP would have meant a really unsettled and snowy easterly, too - it was so close to one of those classics.

Edited January 24, 2009 by Yeti

[Thundery wintry showers]

I agree. Easterlies often tend to bring either dull dry weather or bright weather with wintry showers, depending on how stable the airmass is (cold upper air and low heights on the S of the HP increase the chances of the result being bright and showery)- it suffices to say that it was as obvious a "sunshine and snow showers" easterly airmass as you're ever likely to see. Also note that the areas that did get hit- N Scotland and Shetland- got a sizeable dumping of snow from it.

It's unlikely that it would have matched January 1987 in terms of severity of cold, but it could well have turned out similar to February 1991 by that measure.

[Snowyowl9]

My "favourite" near-miss was February 2001.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00120010201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00120010205.gif

Jet just couldn't dig far enough S. Now I did get over a foot of snow from that event but still, a disaster really considering the potential!

That was pitiful here then on the 1st had a sprinkling with snow turning to rain.

Some snow laying on the morning of the 4th then a thaw temps same as today,next day was mild 5th.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

lets hope early feb 2009 wont be added to this, few ensembles showing easterly, and ecmwf 12Z beast for 3rd feb

[Guest]

That was pitiful here then on the 1st had a sprinkling with snow turning to rain.

Some snow laying on the morning of the 4th then a thaw temps same as today,next day was mild 5th.

Although we may some easterlies begginning of Feb, the continent need s to get a lot colder for it to work - Suggest it will be another near miss!