Global Hurricane Activity Lowest In 30 Years

[Cookie]

Global and Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Activity [still] lowest in 30-years

Tropical cyclone (TC) activity worldwide has completely and utterly collapsed during the past 2 to 3 years with TC energy levels sinking to levels not seen since the late 1970s. This should not be a surprise to scientists since the natural variability in climate dominates any detectable or perceived global warming impact when it comes to measuring yearly integrated tropical cyclone activity. With the continuation (persistence) of colder Pacific tropical sea-surface temperatures associated with the effects of La Nina, the upcoming 2009 Atlantic hurricane season should be above average, as we saw in 2008. Nevertheless, since the Atlantic only makes up 10-15% of overall global TC activity each year (climatological average during the past 30 years), continued Northern Hemispheric and global TC inactivity as a whole likely will continue.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

[jethro]

Oh bugger, another spoke in the wheel gone. Temps flat-lining, Polar Bears thriving and now this....I thought all this AGW/ we know what's happening and why, stuff was settled.

What ever next?

[Chris Knight]

Oh bugger, another spoke in the wheel gone. Temps flat-lining, Polar Bears thriving and now this....I thought all this AGW/ we know what's happening and why, stuff was settled.

What ever next?

I'm going out tomorrow and digging up my olive groves, vineyards and spaghetti trees, oats and barley are going in, with a catch crop of sprouts over the winter.

[Devonian]

I'm going out tomorrow and digging up my olive groves, vineyards and spaghetti trees, oats and barley are going in, with a catch crop of sprouts over the winter.

Chris, you must, surely, know the difference between weather and climate? Between a single point of data and a trend? Or are you just being fatuous? It's one or the other.

[Chris Knight]

Chris, you must, surely, know the difference between weather and climate? Between a single point of data and a trend? Or are you just being fatuous? It's one or the other.

I think the spaghetti trees must have given me away :lol:

[Methuselah]

Just now, I would imagine that the finger-of-blame must be directed squarely at ENSO???

Either way, I doubt anyone will put it all down to AGW...But there's plenty of time! :lol:

[Rob]

i wonder how this hurricane season will fair?

[Thundery wintry showers]

There is an argument that hurricane activity should increase if AGW takes over, because of warmer SSTs. But the evidence is far from conclusive from what I've seen, and there have also been comments that we should see an increase in the coming decades due to natural cyclical factors.

The lack of hurricanes this season is not a spoke in the wheel of AGW but it is certainly a spoke in the wheel of certainty.

[Somerset Squall]

There is an argument that hurricane activity should increase if AGW takes over, because of warmer SSTs. But the evidence is far from conclusive from what I've seen, and there have also been comments that we should see an increase in the coming decades due to natural cyclical factors.

The lack of hurricanes this season is not a spoke in the wheel of AGW but it is certainly a spoke in the wheel of certainty.

Agreed Ian. The opposite, and plausible view is that tropical cyclone activity will decrease to to inceased wind shear related to warming sea temperatures:

The strength of very large scale tropical circulations such as monsoons and the trade winds are expected to increase. (Although the pole-to-equator surface temperature gradient decreases, gradients at higher altitudes increase and, in the net, the strength of thermally direct circulations increases.) In general, this would be accompanied by an increase in vertical wind shear, particularly in the upper troposphere (wind shear in the lower troposphere actually decreases). This would weigh in favor of fewer cases of tropical cyclogenesis.

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/anthro2.htm

Tropical cyclone genesis is probably the least understood area of Meteorology. We can hypothise, but it's impossible to accurately predict the levels of tropical cyclone activity over the next few decades. To say with utter conviction that tropical cyclone activity will increase because of rising sea temperatures when really the matter is so much more complex than that is naive.

Interesting that we are going through a quiet patch. The east Pacific basin has seen very much below average activity for the last two years now (particularly in 2007) and the West Pacific was very quiet this year too. As said above, the Atlantic was the only basin that did well. And there was only one category 5 system worldwide in 2008, Super Typhoon Jangmi in the West Pacific. 2009 so far- South Pacific is currently running well below average and the South Indian Ocean slightly so.

The ACE table in Cookie's link really demonstrates the deline over the last couple years!

[Cookie]

both me and somerset have mentioned a few times via pm about how below average things have been.