Chase 2009 Day 7 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Starting in Abilene and a Mammoth drive East on I20 To get towards the Tornado Risk today, absolutely freezing with drizzle here in West Texas. Going to go for the 10% Tornado Risk somewhere around Paris (Tx)

Going to be touch and go but the guys are happy to go for this one.

Paul S

[Nick L]

Bloody hell, that's a long drive, hope that it's worth it for you!

[Gorky]

You'll be getting into some pretty crappy terrain, and radar coverage isn't great up there due to the distance to the nearest radar site, which might make identifying the cells to be on difficult. It may well be a needle in a hasystack affair trying to find tornadic cells given this, but there will be plenty of storms to chase, and I'd imagine it would stay active into the evening hours given more chances for these great lightning shots you have been coming up with!

If you are still only jsut setting off, my only worry would be if the storms fired too early for you to get on, but there is a risk of storms further SW if you need to dro back at least

[Paul]

Paul's latest video briefing can be found here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...ase-video;sess=

[Tony Gilbert]

Paris TX good, though I would be inclined to drop a tad further south onto the I30 in line with Sulphur Sprs with a west to east option. The SPC just beat me to generating a risk box exactly where they have the 10% risk. Tornadoes are not guaranteed today with rather weak low level shear. Though it has to be said that the narrow risk corridor defined by the SPC will be the only field to play on today. So, all or bust!

A small wave feature is expected to develop by mid afternoon advancing another run of convection. Worth noting exceptional moisture with low LFC. A few funnels should be in order within storm initiation, atleast.

Edited May 2, 2009 by Tony Gilbert

[Nick L]

Paul's latest video briefing can be found here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...ase-video;sess=

I can see the video but there's no sound. B)

It's me, something very strange is happening. I can't play any sounds through IE.

Edited May 2, 2009 by nick2702

[Neilsouth]

I can see the video but there's no sound. B)

It's me, something very strange is happening. I can't play any sounds through IE.

Sounds working ok here

[Nick L]

Yeah it works in Firefox, but not in IE for some very strange reason.

[Paul]

Streaming is now live:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

We've tweaked a few settings again today to try and get everything we can out of the connection - they'll be in a good reception area for much of the journey east but it does get more patchy the further northeast in texas you are...

[Paul]

Lunchtime!

[Nick L]

Weather looks absolutely atrocious!

[Roger J Smith]

This is a difficult situation. Severe storms will no doubt erupt in northeast TX but the further north they track, the more likely they are to be obscured by "grunge" ahead of the cold front. I have the feeling that the best viewing opportunities may come a bit further south around Corsicana, Athens and Tyler to the southeast of Dallas.

By tonight this severe complex will become a heavy rain producer and there could be some serious flooding in eastern TX and southern AR by morning. In fact, there could be flood risks even during the storm chase especially if the team is north of the I-20 route east of Dallas.

[Paul]

Looks like they have run into a storm on route:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

Looks like they have run into a storm on route:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

[Ross B]

Looks like they have run into a storm on route:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

Yep, very wet by the looks of it! The roads look a flooded as well which isn't good news.

[Paul]

Yep, as Roger had said above it doesn't look pretty. Huge storm warning box just gone up south of them too.

[Tony Gilbert]

The teams current position puts them in line with the trailing cold front but any low mid level shear will be further east along the CF exclusive to the extreme NE TX/ AK state border within the next couple of hrs. This will now make it impossible for the guys to get there in time!

I do not see the SPC going moderate with this risk and I do not see any increase risk of tornado development; 10% seems about right given the most recent update from the RUC model. Tornadoes are marginally possible IMO before around 01Z or 7pm CDT, though it is quite possible that no tornadoes will occur during this watch given the amount of rain cooled air being delivered over such a broad region. Another restrictive factor by early evening will be warming from the mid level downward as increase in temp at 500 mb is noted.

PS. Paul if you get to read this; Prob not worth chasing down into Louisiana tomorrow when you have some good potential back on the southern plains by Tues!

Edited May 2, 2009 by Tony Gilbert

[Pete the Britt]

OK, Steve storms is set up in clear air at the moment at Fannin county. Not a million miles away from Paul & team. Maybe they'll run into each other but i think he's going to push SE to miss most of the rain that's coming with this monster.

Pete

[NL]

Latest SPC update on todays risk

SPC AC 022003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0303 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX TO THE

CAROLINAS...

...CENTRAL TX AND ARKLATEX TO NORTHERN MS/NORTHERN AL...

PRIOR FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH A STEADILY INCREASING SURFACE

BASED SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FROM

NORTH CENTRAL TX/ARKLATEX TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL...PRIMARILY

FOCUSED ALONG A NEARLY STALLED/WSW-ENE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE ANGLING

FROM WEST CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN AR AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF

AL/MS. WITH A PROGRESSIVELY DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...UPSWING

IN ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH TX APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY A MID LEVEL

IMPULSE/SPEED MAXIMA CROSSING THE TX PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ALL...A MIXED MODE OF QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES

APPEARS LIKELY INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH ALL

FACETS OF SEVERE PROBABLE INCLUDING SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND

SOME TORNADOES. STRONG CAPPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...SUCH AS

REFLECTED IN RECENT ACARS DATA FROM THE AUSTIN TX AREA...CONTINUES

TO PUT INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR

WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT AWAY FROM THE NEAR SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.

SEE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK DISCUSSION AND LATEST WATCHES/MESOSCALE

DISCUSSIONS FOR THE MOST CONTEMPORARY INFORMATION.

..GUYER.. 05/02/2009

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Tony

Yeah am happy about Tuesdays Risk, looks like a good opportunity for Tornadoes. Am seriously thinking now to head to the East and South East of the DFW Metroplex and see if something can pop down to the South of DFW And Trundle North East to the East if DFW. The LCL's today are ridiculous, Visibility about 1/4 Mile and Temp and Dewpoint spread about the Same, going to move from Decatur in a Mo and head East on Highway 380 and then Evaluate from there, much too much rain cooled air further North East and temps only 19c

Paul S

[salts100]

looks like storm building SE of there location

[Paul Sherman]

Just took an executive Decision on Today and am going to call it a day, we are too far West and not liking the look of driving for 6 hours for most probably little Reward. So we will return to Decatur for the evening.

Paul S

[NL]

I dont blame ya there Paul, still an absolute 'bloody' mess latest visible satellite image

shows hell of alot of LCL, with only the slightest of 'bright' spells.

[Paul]

Bloody wimps I say - call yourselves a chase team, pah

[dvdfjojo]

Just took an executive Decision on Today and am going to call it a day, we are too far West and not liking the look of driving for 6 hours for most probably little Reward. So we will return to Decatur for the evening.

Paul S

I remember us being laughed at for calling that place "De Catt' urr" instead of "De Kay Tah". Have a lovely night and hope you have better luck for tomorrow, everyone, it's been brilliant reading what's going on from here. Have some good steaks & beers :-

)

[Paul Sherman]

right we are going to jog east about 45 miles and intercept a cell and have the hail core come over us should be fun.