Summer 2009 Forecast From Roger Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Summer forecast for the UK and Ireland, 2009

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Lots of variety, better than 07 or 08, perhaps not ideal though

Well, there's a brave call for the British Isles, right? "Perhaps not ideal." Yes, I have noticed the region is stuck out in the middle of a fairly large, cool body of water.

And if you're wondering, can I do this without Fred's help, so am I ... but I've been super busy, and I gather he has too, so we just haven't had a chance to chat. I am sure he will let us know if he's seeing things differently.

I have used my ongoing and (some say) developing research method to come up with this forecast in plain English (sorry, no hables espanol), and if you want something far more technical but just plain wrong, then I can supply that in another thread. :lol:

The guiding influences that I see (besides of course entrails of frogs etc) would be a very sluggish hemispheric circulation that seems to have fallen and can't get up (do you have that commercial on your TV?) and the ongoing lunar-geomagnetic signature of a large monthly oscillation with tendency to warmth near perigee which at this time of year is near the new moon dates around the 23rd falling back towards the 20th as we hit September.

So as you may recall (if you read my stuff at all, you will remember this) the winter forecast had some success with trends based on this monthly cycle, but there is also the need to diagnose larger scale fluctuations that may come from entirely different (i.e. non-lunar-geomagnetic) signals that involve solar system magnetic field sectors -- these can sometimes be followed either prograde or retrograde, and at the moment, I am seeing a tendency for retrograde activity likely to fade out in July to be replaced by a prograde advance of features currently fighting their way through the chaos east of North America.

All in all, then, here's the prognosis, and I must say I am far from blindingly confident about any of this, because the signals are weak, inconclusive, and at some variance with hunchcast material such as Sun perhaps running at 95% peak efficiency, nasty looking pools of blue left over from winter in odd positions, and odd behaviour of house pets.

JUNE will obviously start warm and dry (way to go, Roger) and deteriorate from there, because (a) it is June, ( :unsure: cyclical effects will bring about a cooling baseline relative to normal, © we just passed perigee and northern max, the cooling signature usually hits around southern max which is full moon at this time of year, and (d) nobody can be that lucky as to have a whole month like the past week. Therefore, and with full apologies to persons living anywhere near the west or north coasts, this southeast flow will reverse to a mildly northwest but generally slack westerly sort of situation with variable weather not far from normal much of the time after the warm spell breaks down, and eventually it is very likely to sod down rain because at the risk of repeating myself, (a) it is June, ( :lol: there are weekends, and © nobody is that lucky.

Expect some rather heavy rain at times in late June -- I have the 23rd-24th circled on my astrolabe as a time for both heavy rain, and severe thunderstorms (which is really a two for one special).

JULY appears from a statistical index analysis quite likely to be very near normal in most regards, with probably some nasty bouts of severe storm activity at times, notably around the 8th to 10th and the 20th to 23rd. I don't have strong feelings about where exactly, so let's say the most likely areas in Ireland and England for severe storms, across the convergence zones of the Midlands in each case. I would not be that surprised if we see a tornado of some note as in 2005.

AUGUST may then improve again slightly and be (easily) the best August in a while, because even the hot/dry summer of 2006 had a lousy August as I recall. I won't go into detail about August other than to say, from this distance, I'm expecting a little above normal in temperature and near normal in other variables.

I'm expecting a warm September and a very active tropical season with perhaps 16-18 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. We all know that western parts of the British Isles are probably overdue for a direct hit from a dying tropical system as with the 1961 case, and this may be the year when I look at the most likely flow patterns for North America, the North Atlantic and Europe, I see a tendency for fast SW'ly flow near NI and w Scotland.

So now the wait begins, to see if this is even slightly non-random. I heard about the "good bar-be-que summer" forecast and I guess this isn't wildly different, but I would say this ... if it appears to bust, it will be towards the wet side, not the 2003 side of expectations.

There probably is some slight risk of a killer heat wave given the frequency of E to SE flow patterns so far in 2009, as we've seen, these get warmer relative to normal as you approach the summer peak of warmth (in early August). If I get some indications of such an event as we get closer to mid-summer, then I will add those.

In any case, have a great summer and take an opportunity to track or photograph a storm if you get the chance.

I hope Fred will add his thoughts or post his own forecast as I like to compare our thinking. In fact that goes for everyone here.

Roger Smith

"still May 31st here"

[johnholmes]

tks for that Roger

interesting comment from you about the hurricane season and its possible effect on some parts of the UK at the end of summer/start of autumn.

I wonder what, if any, the cooler waters around the Azores will have on this idea?

Come to that why has the ocean around the Azores cooled off-anyone?

[Coast]

Thanks Roger, I'll keep coming back to this through the next few months and following any updates with great interest.

(loving the possibility of increased TStorm activity!).

[chionomaniac]

tks for that Roger

interesting comment from you about the hurricane season and its possible effect on some parts of the UK at the end of summer/start of autumn.

I wonder what, if any, the cooler waters around the Azores will have on this idea?

Come to that why has the ocean around the Azores cooled off-anyone?

I'd like the answer to that too!

Thanks for the forecast, Roger' let's hope we get a few good storms.

[Lynxus]

Thanks for the forecast!

I just hope that the end of June and first week of July is nice and sunny as im going to cornwall for a week with mah boat.

[Harry]

Thanks very much for that Roger

Though I am afraid I already beat you to the punch with one of your predicitons :o

Expect some rather heavy rain at times in late June -- I have the 23rd-24th circled on my astrolabe as a time for both heavy rain, and severe thunderstorms (which is really a two for one special).

I already stated that as I am holiday during this period storms will be in vast quantities across the UK, particularly the SE

[VillagePlank]

Thanks Roger

[SteveB]

Thanks Roger, It is a good read.

[Roger J Smith]

Thanks one and all, I think I may have placed this in the wrong forum, if any mod wants to move it ...

I see what you mean, John, about the cool anomaly in the Atlantic near the Azores. I see this connected to a period of weaker than average Gulf stream generation from east of Florida to south of Newfoundland. This is after all the source of the warmish water that circulates around towards the Azores. So, a break in the hot water pipe so to speak.

And perhaps that was obvious and we are really asking, why the weak Gulf stream?

In that case, less really definite ideas from my perspective, although it could be a reaction to low solar activity from 2007 to 2009, strong outflow of very cold water into the Gulf of Mexico last winter and spring (Mississippi River and other sources draining out of anomalously cold terrain), and perhaps, resistance to a robust circulation of the Atlantic because of the very frequent easterly flow last winter (Dec to early Feb at least).

Perhaps this subconsciouly factors into my forecast because I have the hunch rather than anything really definite that the cool tendency around the n.h. from late 2007 to early 2009 is about to flip-flop to another QBO type of warm peak, and with that the Atlantic should start generating a more robust circulation of its currents.

Seems like the British Isles sector is caught between two conflicting trends, the weaker Gulf stream would argue for cooler waters at least until the summer peak of heating from insolation, but the long-term warm anomaly would tend to linger in this receptive part of the basin. So the trend near Ireland seems to be closer to normal values. This prolonged warm spell is obviously going to leave a signature of warm coastal waters for a time, and that can only raise the base line for temperature forecasts at least in June and July.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Roger et al.

Was unable to participate in LRF this year as had family issues to deal with which inevitably have resolved themselves....we all end up in the same place.

I have, however, been posting basic thoughts of the summer pattern and initial sounding was made around 5th May. I foresaw a pattern where northern blocking would be repeating pattern with HP mainly e of northern quadrant and an E to SE flow. Evolving then that this would break down but readily reset itself and bringing a summer above average but no real heatwave. The recent heat was in 'hot' category but not at all exceptional, indeed away from SE quarter it was temps I would expect to be reached during the summer. So looking at July we have this breakdown pattern but I expect HP to our north again transfer to Scandi for another 'hit' late July and as I have mentioned i think those who have called for CET +0.5 AND +1c above average are on the money IMO.....and Aug to follow similar pattern. Re thunderstorms? I have a signal for enb of JULY too as decent chance.

BFTP

Edited July 9, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST