Hurricane Carlos

[Somerset Squall]

Carlos strengthened to 75kts last night, but, similarly to this time yesterday, Carlos now looks less impressive. A well defined eye is no longer present and Carlos has lost a significant amount of convection. Intensity has been lowered to 70kts and this could possibly be generous. Intensity fluctuations are not uncommon with a tropical cyclone as small as Carlos.

However, Carlos still has a good couple days in a low shear, warm sea temperature environment. NHC have backed off making Carlos a major hurricane but it definitly can't be ruled out as Carlos could easily rapidly intensify again. In around 60hrs, sea temps will gradually cool and shear is progged to increase which will cause a more persistant weakening trend.

Carlos is forecast to continue moving generally westwards with perhaps a slight northwards component over the next 5 days. Carlos, if it makes it this far west, is not likely to come too close to Hawaii, unless the steering ridge to the north weakens.

[Somerset Squall]

Mysteriously, Carlos has continued to weaken, and has now been downgraded to a 60kt tropical storm. The CDO feature is now very small and the eye is no longer apparent. Carlos could still re-strengthen and may well regain hurricane status as there is no reason why not to be honest, but the chances for Carlos to become a major hurricane have significantly reduced.

[Cookie]

what went wrong with it?

[Somerset Squall]

what went wrong with it?

I'm actually not sure Cookie, and it appears the NHC are confused too:

THE MYSTERIOUS WEAKENING TREND THAT BEGAN EARLY THIS MORNING HAS

CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

This year isn't going so great is it?!

Carlos' intensity is now a mere 50kts, and it could well get lowered again in the next advisory. NHC still forecast recovery to a minimal hurricane, but unless Carlos manages to build a substantial amount of convection near the centre again this is unlikely. On saturday, Carlos lost convection in the morning and early afternoon, only to put on a burst of intensification in the evening and overnight. This clearly didn't happen yesterday and Carlos has instead continued on the downward spiral. The system remains small and now looks very weak, with only a shallow amount of convection occuring near the centre. Carlos reminds me of Kika on the Central Pacific last year- waters were warm, shear was low and moisture was high, yet the system spent a few days in these conditions and refused to strengthen beyond 35kts. Some force is at work here, though I'm not sure what it is. Any thoughts anyone?

[Somerset Squall]

Down to 45kts:

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009

200 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2009

CARLOS CONSISTS OF AN AMORPHOUS BLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A FEW

POORLY-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN

PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. ITS RECENT APPEARANCE REPRESENTS A

DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION...AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5

AND 3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...REFLECT A GRADUAL

WEAKENING. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45

KT...WITHIN THE REALM OF AVAILABLE ESTIMATES.

THE WEAKENING OF CARLOS OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS INDEED

BEEN PUZZLING...AND THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOW

CONFIDENCE. CARLOS HAS WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...AND IS

IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD FAVOR

INTENSIFICATION...YET THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED 30 KT SINCE THIS

TIME YESTERDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF OUR LACK OF

UNDERSTANDING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE. NO MATTER THE

INEXPLICABLE WEAKENING...THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS PREDICT THAT

CARLOS WILL REACQUIRE HURRICANE STATUS...WHILE SHIPS INDICATES

LITTLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THE HWRF WEAKENS CARLOS TO A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND THE LESS BULLISH

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR ONLY

MODEST STRENGTHENING EVEN THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.

THEREAFTER...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY

COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS

REMAIN NORTHERN OUTLIERS...AND ARE DISCOUNTED AS MOST DYNAMICAL

GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING

WELL-ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF CARLOS THROUGH THE FORECAST

PERIOD. ESSENTIALLY...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MODEL

CONSENSUS...SINCE THE LATTER INCLUDES THE QUESTIONABLE NOGAPS AND

GFDN SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 10.2N 124.1W 45 KT

12HR VT 13/1800Z 10.2N 125.8W 50 KT

24HR VT 14/0600Z 10.4N 128.0W 50 KT

36HR VT 14/1800Z 10.7N 130.2W 55 KT

48HR VT 15/0600Z 11.1N 132.3W 55 KT

72HR VT 16/0600Z 11.9N 136.4W 55 KT

96HR VT 17/0600Z 12.5N 141.0W 50 KT

120HR VT 18/0600Z 12.5N 145.5W 45 KT

$$

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

Edited July 13, 2009 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Convection is increasing again in association with Carlos, and there is even hints of an eye reforming. The air is a lot moister around Carlos than last night, and because Carlos is so small, the drier air last night may well have been a factor which considerably weakened the storm. The storm continues to move generally westwards at very low lattitude, over warm waters and low shear. It'll be interesting to see what the NHC make of the recent developments in their next advisory in about an hour's time.

[Somerset Squall]

Tiny Carlos has indeed re-intensified over the last 6 hours, and intensity is now at 55kts. The future intensity of the storm is pretty much unpredictable. Warm waters and low shear will perist for the next 48hrs, which would suggest continued intensification. However, the NHC say that because Carlos is so small and is near the equator and the ITCZ, it is being dragged west-southwestwards and may become re-attached to the ITCZ and dissipate at any time. It will be interesting to see what happens. It's not often you see the NHC being so unsure of the future of a tropical storm.

[Cookie]

wow, these things always throw up some interest!

never a dull with these things and to puzzle the experts as well!!

[Somerset Squall]

Carlos has rapidly intensified today and is at the strongest it's ever been, an 80kt cat 1 hurricane. A small, well defined eye has formed and with light shear and warm sea temps, Carlos has another shot at major hurricane status. All this after Carlos looked on it's last legs last night! The tiny hurricane will likely weaken after 36hrs as shear increases. Until then however, Carlos has the potential for more rapid intensification.

Edited July 14, 2009 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Carlos is now a category 2 hurricane, with intensity now at 85kts. Carlos maintains a well defined eye embedded in a small central dense overcast feature. Some additional strengthening is possible for the next 36hrs before shear increases causing weakening.

[Cookie]

Carlos next to 96E from earlier

a tiny beast :lol:

[kold weather]

I'm having a very hard time believing thats just a 85kts category-2, its a very tight system which the Dvorak estimates have a very tough time with, they quite often don't quite resolve the system to the top degree simply because they are so tightly wound up. For example Wilma was estimated to be about 120kts, when in fact it was a 882mbs 165kt category-5. Whilst the situation with Carlos isn't going to be nearly as extreme, I think with the eye being pretty sharp and an impressive CDO it may not be far off from actually being a major and I'd be willing to bet if we had recon in there it'd be around the 95-100kts mark.

[Cookie]

OF NOTE...WITH AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT...CARLOS HAS BECOME THE

STRONGEST HURRICANE SO FAR SOUTH IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SINCE

RELIABLE DATA RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966.

not long great anymore

[Somerset Squall]

That's an interesting little stat there- Carlos is certainly a long way south compared to normal.

After officially peaking at 90kts (though I agree with KW, it may have been a touch stronger) Carlos is now falling apart again. Waters are still warm and shear reasonably low, so it could well be the tiny size of Carlos making it very succeptabke to small environmental changes again. Waters do cool and shear increases beyond 24hrs, so weakening will defintely occur in this time frame but it's possible weakening will be more aggressive than forecast by the NHC if Carlos remains in this fragile state.

[Cookie]

I was meant to put not looking great instead of long

[Cookie]

down to a tropical storm

Downgraded to Tropical Storm=55kts

454

WTPZ44 KNHC 152034

TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009

200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

CARLOS HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN...AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 20

KT AS ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS MODEL HAS REMOVED THE DEEP CONVECTION

TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET

AT 55 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF 1800 UTC FINAL-T NUMBERS OF 3.5 AND

3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/08. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED WELL TO SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED

ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION. THIS TRACK IS SOUTH OF

MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IMMEDIATELY SHOWS A NORTHWARD

COMPONENT TO THE MOTION. I SEE LITTLE REASON FOR THE CYCLONE TO

GAIN MUCH LATITUDE AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE...AND THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE BAM MODELS. THE

MEDIUM AND DEEP BAMS EVEN SHOW A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION ON

DAYS 2 AND 3...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. THE FORWARD

SPEED IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IF THE LOW-LEVEL

CENTER REMAINS DETACHED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...CARLOS COULD

DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR BE RE-ABSORBED INTO THE ITCZ.

HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE CAN SURVIVE THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE WATERS

REMAIN WARM AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE BY

THE SHIPS MODEL...AND CARLOS COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY DAY 3...CARLOS WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...LIKELY RESULTING IN FURTHER WEAKENING. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING AND IS CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH

THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 10.1N 130.8W 55 KT

12HR VT 16/0600Z 10.1N 132.1W 45 KT

24HR VT 16/1800Z 10.1N 134.0W 40 KT

36HR VT 17/0600Z 10.1N 136.2W 40 KT

48HR VT 17/1800Z 10.0N 138.7W 35 KT

72HR VT 18/1800Z 9.5N 144.0W 35 KT

96HR VT 19/1800Z 9.5N 150.0W 30 KT

120HR VT 20/1800Z 9.5N 156.0W 30 KT

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Somerset Squall]

Interesting the possibilty of Carlos finding lower shear between 12-72hrs, the shear at the moment west of Carlos is in the 30kt range, which would rip Carlos to pieces. That forecast for Carlos to survive that long would be highly dependent on Carlos finding lower shear. Shear is lower south of 10N, but I fear if Carlos dips any further south then the other scenario the NHC highlighted would occur- the very small storm would get swamped in the ITCZ. It will be interesting to see what happens but how Carlos looks at the moment clearly shows how just a modest increase in shear can quickly destroy a storm as small as this.

[Cookie]

I have find tracking this system very intresting, I don't about you but been great not knowing whats next.

[StOrM18]

wow 2 hurricanes !! :lol:

this from google Erth

[Cookie]

neither of them are hurricanes at the moment mate.

[Somerset Squall]

Carlos is now a 25kt tropical depression, succumbing to the shear. Some deep convection remains with the system but the LLC has become very ill defined. NHC expect Carlos to degenerate into a remnant low at any time as the high shear continues to destroy the small circulation.

[Somerset Squall]

Carlos is no more. Strong shear has continued to negetively impact Carlos, and though some convection remains the system is no longer organised enough to still be classified as a tropical cyclone. Regeneration is not expected. Certainly been interesting to follow. Hopefully we will get more of the same!

Edited July 16, 2009 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

another ones bites the dust!

Last Advisory

556

WTPZ44 KNHC 162032

TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009

200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009

CARLOS HAS BECOME A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL IN THE ITCZ WITH

VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE SYSTEM HAS

DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON

CARLOS.

THE REMNANT OF CARLOS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES UNTIL COMPLETELY LOSING ITS IDENTITY WITHIN

THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 9.4N 136.4W 25 KT

12HR VT 17/0600Z 9.5N 138.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

24HR VT 17/1800Z 9.5N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

36HR VT 18/0600Z 9.5N 143.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

48HR VT 18/1800Z...REMNANT LOW

$$

FORECASTER PASCH