General Climate Change Discussion.......

[Devonian]

You see the problem with the Armageddon approach is that we've all heard it before, with, at least, once instance being climate related. Now, that this time there might actually be a point to the whole affair is neither here nor there - it's exactly the same as the boy who cried 'wolf' one too many times. For sure, it has been amplified by the media many times over, and that they must take the lion's share of the blame. But scientists cannot be wholly let of the hook, here, either. Where spurious comments and articles have been published the inertia of the scientific community to agree/disagree has been monumental.

There is a moral in the cry wolf story - of course. But, who's crying wolf here? We don't know yet do we?

Besides, I try to stick to the science, when have I talked about climate Armageddon? More to the point who's run with more extreme ideas than the predictions science makes (2-4C warming/doubling effective CO2)?

The idea that we sell it as pollution is to change people's attitudes in the hope that they will modify their behaviour. Most people don't drop empty crisp packets on the floor, even though they know, firstly, that that contribution to land-fill is miniscule. Why is that? Because they see it as pollution, and pollution is dirty. Thirty years ago people wouldn't have thought twice about drinking six pints and then driving their family home.

Good idea, but the sceptics have been busily telling people CO2 isn't a pollutant and how wonderful coal is..

The key is to change what is considered the social norm - so if you drive a big 4x4, then you are a polluter, and people will sneer at you in the same way as if dropped a crisp packet. Selling fear simply doesn't work anymore - did it ever?

The current approach needs a rethink, and, my personal view is, the mess that Copenhagen is, vindicates that view.

Again, who is selling fear? What are scientists to do if their predictions can be portrayed as selling fear. Not tell the science as it is? Look at the predictions, say to themselves 'We'll be called scaremongers if we tell people this' and so go around saying something like 'Oh, according to our predictions we might see no more warming'. They'd be LYING if they did that.

Otoh, the sceptics have sold fear - and very successfully. They've convinced a lot of people not to believes science - they've changed public opinion (in the US predominantly) against a system (science principles of evidence, experiment, theory, data, observation and the rest) that's served us very well for many years because it's RIGHT. And, only if science (a whole science, atmosphere science) only if that is wrong can they be right.

The stakes are high - I'm sticking with the science not the sceptic fearmongers

Edited December 22, 2009 by Devonian

[Methuselah]

Agree, Dev...the blogosphere is littered with claims of an imminent economic Armargeddon...Now tell me, how on Earth, can limiting AGW to +2C cause any such thing!

[jethro]

A few things which spring to mind...

Drop in production due to less consumer demand as folk try to live a greener lifestyle. Emission capping leading to less manufacturer profits, as cash diverted into cleaner production. Punitive taxation leading again to a drop off in consumer demand as products become more expensive.

Worryingly, the drop off in demand for 'exotic' goods such as green beans in December, as we all aim to buy local and cut the food miles, is many overseas folk who are only just beginning to fight their way out of abject poverty, may find themselves plunged once more back into a borderline, subsistence living.

For every gain, there's a loss and I wouldn't be at all surprised if short term we and many, many more find themselves struggling towards a newer, greener lifestyle. The ultimate, long term gains will of course be worth it if it leads to a sustainable lifestyle, but there will be difficult times in the process.

[Methuselah]

'Morning, J.

It's the staples, like rice, that worry me more...Billions of people depend on rice, merely to survive. How many will die because the are fewer pineapples in Tesco?

[jethro]

Morning dear.

Fair point, but I'd rather folk had money to buy their own rice than depend upon charity hand outs. Staples may well be in short supply in the future (even more so than today) but if we take a longer term look, more money in the hands of the poor in developing countries leads to greater education - many, if not most consider it the utmost important aspiration. Better educated populations, particularly of women lead to a dramatic drop in birth rates; it's THE most influential birth control. Long term, those beans and pineapples grown by poor nations will lead to fewer people. Surely it's better to have fewer people to share the crop in the first instance than less food for even more people?

[Methuselah]

Morning dear.

Fair point, but I'd rather folk had money to buy their own rice than depend upon charity hand outs. Staples may well be in short supply in the future (even more so than today) but if we take a longer term look, more money in the hands of the poor in developing countries leads to greater education - many, if not most consider it the utmost important aspiration. Better educated populations, particularly of women lead to a dramatic drop in birth rates; it's THE most influential birth control. Long term, those beans and pineapples grown by poor nations will lead to fewer people. Surely it's better to have fewer people to share the crop in the first instance than less food for even more people?

True...But, it's the staples what keep people alive? Whether they be potatoes or rice; surely, maintaining such foods is the most fundamental issue? At least, if peeps can still grow for themselves?

Happy Christmas, my friend! :winky:

[noggin]

You see the problem with the Armageddon approach is that we've all heard it before,

Quite right. I was born in 1956 and the big "thing" whilst I was growing up was that we would all die from a nuclear attack in the Cold War. Now, it's AGW that's going to do for us.

Every generation has it's "fear" and currently it's AGW. My own view is that it is natural cycles. HOWEVER, as I have said, ad nauseum, we have to stop polluting he planet and start respecting it's bounty. Also, all the time, money and effort spent/wasted banging on about AGW would be far better spent on devising new power sources and clean fuels. I would like to say that surely this is not beyond the wit of the best brains, but in view of the fiasco over Channel Tunnel trains that cannot cope with temperature changes...well, I'm beginning to have my doubts. :winky:

Good idea, but the sceptics have been busily telling people CO2 isn't a pollutant and how wonderful coal is..

I haven't.

[jethro]

Oh absolutely Pete.

Trouble is, it's one of those double edged swords. If we go the route of not buying foods imported from developing nations or impose harsh carbon caps, those folk are consigned to a basic existence (at best, in many cases), the birth rate continues to climb, the per capita income continues at lowest levels - more and more people needing less and less staples.

The other option is to continue to buy foods from overseas, in the knowledge that we're racking up extortionate food miles in emissions, with the possible implications this may have on climate. The climate may change drastically as a result, this may result in displaced people with lack of agricultural ground to support themselves, but it also has an equal chance of ensuring any future climate change may happen after they've dragged themselves out of abject poverty and thus less dependant upon their own patch of ground.

I'd rather we looked at adaptation and mitigation whilst giving these nations a chance to change their own future rather than legislate against meaningful development. The idea that limiting emissions is the panacea to everything, overlooks so many related issues IMO.

And a Happy Christmas to you my sweet

[Dartmoor_Matt]

More to the point, we cannot grow enough food to feed 60million people in the UK.

The truth is that economies will suffer if there is to be any meaningful cut in CO2, economies are afteral virtually built on the stuff. That much is just logic. Its making the cuts gradually, allowing for adjustments downwards, unfortunately its never going to be a vote winner.

[laserguy]

More to the point, we cannot grow enough food to feed 60million people in the UK.

The truth is that economies will suffer if there is to be any meaningful cut in CO2, economies are afteral virtually built on the stuff. That much is just logic. Its making the cuts gradually, allowing for adjustments downwards, unfortunately its never going to be a vote winner.

http://www.marketske...or-dummies.html

Just found this while mooching around on the 'net whislt killing time before work. No time to read it but seems relevant to where this thread's going. I do like a daily dose of catastrophism! Whether it's garbage or not,I'll have to leave for y'all to decide. See ya.

[Methuselah]

Oh absolutely Pete.

***

I'd rather we looked at adaptation and mitigation whilst giving these nations a chance to change their own future rather than legislate against meaningful development. The idea that limiting emissions is the panacea to everything, overlooks so many related issues IMO.

And a Happy Christmas to you my sweet

Absolutely agree!!!!

[Admiral_Bobski]

I've not been around for a few days now for a variety of reasons, not least among them being the mad hellishness that is the Pre-Christmas Preparations! Just thought I'd let everyone know that I'm gearing up for some good old debating come the New Year (if anyone really cares, that is!).

In the meantime, as I don't know when I may get the chance again, I thought I'd wish everyone on these boards the very Merriest Christmas and a happy, joyful and - above all - peaceful New Year.

All the best, folks!

CB

[Gray-Wolf]

I've not been around for a few days now for a variety of reasons, not least among them being the mad hellishness that is the Pre-Christmas Preparations! Just thought I'd let everyone know that I'm gearing up for some good old debating come the New Year (if anyone really cares, that is!).

In the meantime, as I don't know when I may get the chance again, I thought I'd wish everyone on these boards the very Merriest Christmas and a happy, joyful and - above all - peaceful New Year.

All the best, folks!

CB

We very rarely bat from the same wicket C-Bob but I'd like to echo your sentiments from this household too!

Bugger the future, this is now ,this is real,let's have a ball!!!

That translates as Happy Chrimbo and a slendiferous New Year!!!!

May all our issues be cyberspaced!!!!

[Admiral_Bobski]

We very rarely bat from the same wicket C-Bob but I'd like to echo your sentiments from this household too!

Bugger the future, this is now ,this is real,let's have a ball!!!

That translates as Happy Chrimbo and a slendiferous New Year!!!!

May all our issues be cyberspaced!!!!

CB

[Devonian]

I've not been around for a few days now for a variety of reasons, not least among them being the mad hellishness that is the Pre-Christmas Preparations! Just thought I'd let everyone know that I'm gearing up for some good old debating come the New Year (if anyone really cares, that is!).

In the meantime, as I don't know when I may get the chance again, I thought I'd wish everyone on these boards the very Merriest Christmas and a happy, joyful and - above all - peaceful New Year.

All the best, folks!

CB

That's kind of you, I echo your sentiments

[Gray-Wolf]

So even Nohopenhagen's attempts to peg temp rises at 2c will probably lead to 6 to 9m of sea level rises

http://www.princeton.edu/main/news/archive/S26/09/73O57/index.xml?section=topstories

Good job we won't let it get higher than that eh?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.agu.org/news/press/pr_archives/2009/2009-29.shtml

We hear a lot about American 'cold' and cooling. The above is a study of temp records and it seems that ,in the U.S.,there are twice as many High records broken as lowest records.

Maybe telling us something?

[laserguy]

Maybe telling us something?

Yes,but I'd rather not say as I'll end up in trouble. And anyway,warming,cooling or nothing at all,there's always the unspoken (sometimes) inference that anthro CO2 is pulling the strings. That's when I switch off completely - which invariably means everytime. Man I'm getting so bored with it all.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.sacbee.com/topstories/story/2422319.html

I saw this and it had me wondering. If the last article I posted (U.S. temp records) is sound then the inference is that night time temps are the ones responsible for the difference (most cold records are set overnight so warmer nights mean less cold records).

If the air is warmer overnight would this mean less radiation of daytime accrued temps in the lake leading to a slow increase in their temps?

If so what does this mean for the oceans? Are we missing a large part of the last centuries heat gains in the surface waters of the oceans?

[noggin]

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/29/french-revolution-carbon-tax-ruled-unconstitutional-just-two-days-before-taking-effect/

(Please don't shoot the messenger.)

Are the French wheels falling off the bandwagon?

Also, there has been very little in the media re (A)GW since Copenhagen.

Is this now really the beginning of the end of the (A)GW theory?

Or is it the end of the beginning of the end ( ) and the pace will start to gather? I hope so, because then, hopefully, that which really matters can be started......sorting out pollution and finding clean and renewable fuel/power sources.

Edited December 30, 2009 by noggin

[Gray-Wolf]

As with anything public (driven) opinion does not automatically mean 'fact'.

Look back 200yrs and it was the church that was the 'media' of the country and near every person would tell you that their every thought/deed was overseen by Mr Beardy upstairs.

Today the church is dead and the public get their info from the media.

The past didn't stop Copernicus, Galileo etc from being 'right' (or The general drift of Darwin) but it meant many folk listened to what their 'god' told them and not the science.

[stewfox]

http://www.agu.org/n...9/2009-29.shtml

We hear a lot about American 'cold' and cooling. The above is a study of temp records and it seems that ,in the U.S.,there are twice as many High records broken as lowest records.

Maybe telling us something?

Yes 10000 times more people live in the deep south v the high artic with a lack of on the ground recordings.

Have a hot day in Atlanta the whole world will here about it

Have a cold day in Shagluk or Iditarod and you wont.

Re sea level rises wont that put more distance between us and the French ??

[Gray-Wolf]

Yes 10000 times more people live in the deep south v the high artic with a lack of on the ground recordings.

Have a hot day in Atlanta the whole world will here about it

Have a cold day in Shagluk or Iditarod and you wont.

Re sea level rises wont that put more distance between us and the French ??

LOL!, got to be a silver lining somewhere!!!

Re: Arctic temps.I thought that the Arctic was warming 3 times faster than anywhere else on earth?

I see what you're saying but find it easier to see cold places breaking highest temp records than hot places?

[PersianPaladin]

It may seem that the Earth has always looked like it does now. It didn't change much over the last centuries. How can one tell what the climate was like on Earth thousands and millions years ago? Was it hotter or cooler than now? What do the ice cores tell us? Was carbon dioxide involved in any way in shaping the climates of the past? Or, are the emissions of greenhouse gases changing the climate only now? What was driving climate change since humans were not burning fossil fuels? Where did the CO2 come from at that time?

Richard Alley is a geologist at the Penn State University, and the author of the "Two-Mile Time Machine". He recently gave a talk at the meeting of the geophysicists. Geology may seem to be a little…erm… boring, however, when Richard talks about it, it is as lively as a basketball match. Studying climate these days can be an exciting and sometimes even dangerous occupation – when James Hansen, a climatologist from Goddard Institute for Space Studies, gave a talk couple of weeks ago in Houston, Texas, he was escorted to the hotel by the police, over concerns for his safety.

http://permaculture....drous-co2-knob/

This talk also addresses the claim that "CO2 lags temperature".

Edited December 30, 2009 by PersianPaladin

[paul tall]

LOL!, got to be a silver lining somewhere!!!

Re: Arctic temps.I thought that the Arctic was warming 3 times faster than anywhere else on earth?

LOL, it's all rubbish. We have been conned. Wake up man!

And "they" are realising on that we have cottoned on.

Did you see about the Asteroid threat in the news yesterday? Straight after Copenhagen, co-incidence?

The thing is, we have known about this asteroid for a long time, nothing has changed, it is still progged to come within 18,000 miles of us in 2036. But now the Russians are suggesting that the world should "spend a few hundred million" on developin a prevention system. Well whaddya know?

As the Climate Change Industry enters administration, the Asteroid Research and Impact Prevention Industry is set up....

Beautiful.