Rip Summer 2009

[Noctilucid]

Come to the SE, I've had a fairly warm, and very thundery summer here in E London, and we're facing another localised hot and thundery spell at the end of the week possibly. A thunderstorm a week for six weeks going on seven.

In deep FI the GFS goes for a strong Azores Ridge and the Jet swinging North, not really warm but settled at least, and we all know what can happen when the azores ridge forms a cut off cell to our East. This is a long way away and the ECM dosen't look quite so peachy.

Edited August 2, 2009 by jshaw

[Thundery wintry showers]

Well it isn't really much to expect a few consecutive days of warm sunshine without rain - even for Britain that is realistic!

Well, we had some in June and could well be getting some during August.

[Don]

A disappointing Summer here so far. June was a reasonable month, but even when we had the heatwave at the end, it remained fairly cloudy. Needless to say, July's been a washout and I think last year was better. However, I think it's too early to write Summer off now. We still have full month to go and it may deliver a few pleasant suprises.

[SunnySouthCoast]

Not been too bad down here on the south coast & the worst of the wet weather has actually only been over the last 2 weeks, even so we have had some nicer interludes. We have had some decent temperatures & have recorded a higher maximum than last summer & overall the average Max here for July was 22.5C & the average Min was 15.1C, so pretty average really...

Also back to what the OP poster was saying about the garden flowers etc peaking now, well most gardens often look their best in early Autumn, before the first frosts as plants/flowers have had the whole summer season to grow & flourish, I know my garden looks at its best in September/early October as things like Dahlia's will be flowering then. As long as its dry & reasonably warm September can be a fantastic month...

I have also had loads of BBQ's this summer, including a couple on the beach, the last two summers we only had a handful...

[J10]

July has been very wet generally but the past week has been better, some rain certainly but more in the way of sunshine and this weekend has been the best weekend in nearly 2 months, with sunny or bright weather from Saturday afternoon onwards.

[Cheese Rice]

Its been a better summer than the last two, but only because of the "heatwave" even though it didn't last that long. There have been a lot of sunny days but temps never really exceed the high teens and winds never seemed to fall light so it was never really warm enough to have a barbeque or go for a walk with just tees and shorts. There has been a lot of rain though, it (if memory is correct) has rained evey day this week, and even on days when the weather was meant to improve it never did, take Saturday, Beeb said rain would of cleared at 12, well it did, but they never forecast bands of rain following behind, not even sunny inbetween, it rained very heavy from 3-5pm which wasn't forecast. If temps had risen a few degrees that the usual 17-19.c it would of been fine, but the tempratures are quite cool for summer.

[cheeky_monkey]

Yep when i was growing up in the 70's apart from '76 and up until 1990 summers were well unsettled and not overly warm.The only one in the 90's I remember was 1995(I had my first baby then) .

what about the summers of 1983, 1984 and 1989?? all warm/hot summers...i reserve judgement on this summer until beginning of sept.

[mushymanrob]

I agree with Blast and TEITS re expectations being too high. Yes, during the 90s and 00s we had some hot Summers. Don't forget a couple of scorchers in the 70s as well. But on the whole, British Summers are pretty much wash-outs. The hot Summers are exceptions, they are not the "norms.". Why else would people always have joked about the British Summer?

its no so much about having high expectations, its more about NOT being caught in repetitive torrential downpours. imho a traditional british summer should have something like 1 settled sunny week per month, followed by 3 odd weeks of unsettled...but NOT monsoon like rainfalls!

Yep when i was growing up in the 70's apart from '76 and up until 1990 summers were well unsettled and not overly warm.The only one in the 90's I remember was 1995(I had my first baby then) .It has been very (or seems) wet and cool these last 3 summers.Yes we had a few warm days but we are always in the firing line for the breakdown in conditions first.

I don't like extreme heat but sunshine I do like.

we did not have 3 consecutive washout summers though within that time period, plus you omitted 75, 83, 84, 89, 90, which were all 'good' summers for sunshine/warmth. 78, 80, 82, 87, also had shorter but nice enough (early) hot spells.

July was decidedly wet but still not really cool in the manner of a 1954, 65 or 88.

ok temps werent that low, but those 'bad' summers were in isolation, unlike these 3 consecutive wet julys. temps dont mean much if you are stuck indoors watching the rain.

I think saying "Summer 2009 RIP" is a bit extortionate to be honest, it is equivalent to someone saying "RIP winter" on the 2nd February. True, the nights draw in, but in truth, statistically speaking August isn't significantly cooler or cloudier than July and has in the past produced the UK's biggest heatwaves. There have also been very extreme cases of "BBQ Augusts" such as in 1947 and 1995. And as for September, I remember 1999 as being a good summer in Tyne & Wear, not so much because of the summer quarter (which had a mediocre June & August sandwiching a warm dry sunny July) but the way the summer lasted well into September. I vividly remember getting the BBQ out one evening in early September 1999.

...but those 'heatwave augusts' came on the back of decent julys, have we ever had a heatwave augst on the back of a wet july? if theres a big fat bartlett in place on candlemass (feb 2) 'writing off winter' is a fairly safe bet!

Also back to what the OP poster was saying about the garden flowers etc peaking now, well most gardens often look their best in early Autumn, before the first frosts as plants/flowers have had the whole summer season to grow & flourish, I know my garden looks at its best in September/early October as things like Dahlia's will be flowering then. As long as its dry & reasonably warm September can be a fantastic month...

depends what you grow... i dont do bedding plants, nor dahlias, my perrenials are set to peak in july/early august to co-incide with the warmest time of the year. by september as i explained, im off doing other things as summer is over.

[Nick.F]

It should be made clear that it has not been a washout summer everywhere.

It has been about average for Rainfall in my area, and the summer has been generally quite nice.

I know that is very IMBY, but others are using generalised broad brush statements, which are not true.

I would be so much happier if people stuck to specifics not generalisations.

[johnholmes]

As in other threads a touch of realism would not go amiss in here with one or two.

All our memories are notoriously fickle-especially when we remember back to childhood memories.

Much of how we judge summer or indeed winter is a very personal thing. Good for one is not necessarily good for another person.

I would hardly call the summer, so far, here a 'washout', very wet in July for sure, but the temperature over the whole month came in 0.8C above the VERY long term average for here, over 60 years; the first two days of the month were 'hot' by Met O definition and some 16 days exceeded the average day max for July.

June was relatively dry with almost officially 'warm' compared to average, mean temp was +1.6C on the average, Max was 2.2C up on average; the last 10 days were all well above 'average'.

The greater part of this week looks like turning in above average temps with only Tuesday as a 'wet' day, so I could not agree with the term 'washout' so far.

At 70 I have more years than most of you to remember good and bad summers or good or bad winters but my memories as a child growing up do not always match up with the weather statistics from the nearest climat station to where I lived!

If you want a B-B-Q summer then best you decide to move to somewhere on the continent or more like a Med coast!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Many areas experienced four "washout summers" in a row during 1985-1988, in that most of the country was somewhat cooler, duller and wetter than average. August 1985 had one Atlantic depression after another, August 1986 had some ferocious southerly tracking lows, June 1987 was the dullest on record, and July 1988 was, as Trevor Harley puts it, "unremittingly disturbed".

Yes there were occasional spells of relatively dry sunny weather but it's easy to forget that exactly the same has applied to this summer and the two preceding it. August 2007 was widely drier and sunnier than average, as were Junes 2008 and 2009.

It should also be noted that the 20th century as a whole contained much drier summers than the 19th century, and the 1870s were a particularly wet decade.

July has certainly been unusual for its rainfall. However with regards Mushy's comment about repeated torrential downpours, that sort of weather is typical of unsettled spells in parts of the near continent, though it is often warmer with more sunshine in between the downpours.

[mushymanrob]

It should be made clear that it has not been a washout summer everywhere.

It has been about average for Rainfall in my area, and the summer has been generally quite nice.

I know that is very IMBY, but others are using generalised broad brush statements, which are not true.

I would be so much happier if people stuck to specifics not generalisations.

you will always get localised bias, this is what makes topics open for discussion

Many areas experienced four "washout summers" in a row during 1985-1988, in that most of the country was somewhat cooler, duller and wetter than average. August 1985 had one Atlantic depression after another, August 1986 had some ferocious southerly tracking lows, June 1987 was the dullest on record, and July 1988 was, as Trevor Harley puts it, "unremittingly disturbed".

id like to see the statistics for rainfall month on month for those summers, as i dont remember the frequency of the torrential downpours we currently endure. whilst 85 and 6 were very poor summers they hadnt the intensity of rainfall we currently endure. both 87 and 88 had some decent spells either side of 'bad' weather.. but ok... overall and taking everything into consideration 07-09 isnt as 'bad' as 85-8 apart from rainfall.

[littlemissy]

what about the summers of 1983, 1984 and 1989?? all warm/hot summers...i reserve judgement on this summer until beginning of sept.

um ok can't remember '89 '83 yep I'd forgotten and yes your right it was an excellent summer in 1984(I got sunstroke-the heat obviously melted my memory )

[Thundery wintry showers]

Here is one source for rainfall for England & Wales:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/seriesstatistics/ewrain.txt

Yes, the summers of 1985-88 were not as wet as those of 2007 and 2008 (1985 about level with 2008, the others drier, and 2007 the wettest on record). However, I rather suspect that a larger percentage of the rain was frontal rather than convective, so it probably rained for a similar proportion of the time, but the rain will have been less heavy.

I must admit I don't share the view on "enduring" torrential downpours as opposed to steady frontal rain lasting several hours and that's probably a major part of the reason why I don't have that low an opinion of the summer.

Notable is that of the 16 summer months from June 1985 to August 1988 inclusive, over England and Wales June 1986 was the only month out of the 16 that was both dry and sunny. We have at least beaten that over the previous 11 summer months with August 2007, June 2008 and June 2009 achieving this distinction.

[Methuselah]

And, in those days, there wasn't always a journalist standing in a puddle making news-stories out of nothing...

Does no-one else remember the Wimbledon deluge of 1985?

[Snowyowl9]

Does no-one else remember the Wimbledon deluge of 1985?

For the men`s final it was a washout that year,the womens final has always as far as I`ve seen been very lucky with it being sunny/dry.

Which year gave those torrential thunderstorms at wimbledown,it`s been a good few years,I`ll say thanks in advance who replies.

[mushymanrob]

Here is one source for rainfall for England & Wales:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/seriesstatistics/ewrain.txt

Yes, the summers of 1985-88 were not as wet as those of 2007 and 2008 (1985 about level with 2008, the others drier, and 2007 the wettest on record). However, I rather suspect that a larger percentage of the rain was frontal rather than convective, so it probably rained for a similar proportion of the time, but the rain will have been less heavy.

I must admit I don't share the view on "enduring" torrential downpours as opposed to steady frontal rain lasting several hours and that's probably a major part of the reason why I don't have that low an opinion of the summer.

Notable is that of the 16 summer months from June 1985 to August 1988 inclusive, over England and Wales June 1986 was the only month out of the 16 that was both dry and sunny. We have at least beaten that over the previous 11 summer months with August 2007, June 2008 and June 2009 achieving this distinction.

thanks for that

yeah frontal rather then convective, whilst frontal rain is rather drab and convectional is far more interesting with towering cumulonimbus (some great sky scapes) i cant work through deluges whilst the more gentle frontal rain offers less of a problem.

i accept that the last 2 junes have been ok... but this is a 'summer rip' thread, not a retrospective analysis!

just to note.... IF we get a decent, warm, settled sunny spell (ie 'summer') ill be very happy indeed to be wrong !!!

[William of Walworth]

I love how some people try and make out that this Summer hasn't been bad at all, more rather average. To put it simplistically, the West has faired badly from the wet and cool weather of the last few weeks while Eern areas, namely the SE and parts of EA have done pretty well with average temps and not too much rainfall.

All I can say, is that the Summer, here, in Birmingham has been a joke. Sure yesterday and today has turned out quite plesant with some nice sunshine and it doesn't feel that bad, but this is only because of the crap weather we've had in the last month, it makes it seem good.

This is not how a Summer should be, even in the UK.

I agree with these remarks. I get a bit impatient with the frequent finger wagging here along the lines that we shouldn't be 'expecting' wall to wall sunshine constantly, and that we were spoilt by a few recent better than average summers eg 2003 and 2006, and that what we're getting now is more to be expected.

Well the July just gone has for many regions particularly in the West, been far worse (definitely much wetter anyway) than normal/average.

I'm with what rob was saying too, mixed weather is fine, the odd two day spell of warm sunshine separated by showers and rain would be OK, but throughout July any hope of getting more than one dry day at a time has geenrally been folornm, at least here in Wales.

Thats not normal.

I haven't looked at John's latest LRF yet, but generally I want to disagree with those writing off August as a rain dominated certainty. It's still too early to say IMO, and changes can happen relatively quickly. I incline towards the view that while a Jet dominated pattern can yes be hard to shift, it's not sensible to assume it will continue unchanged indefinitely.

Edited August 3, 2009 by William of Walworth

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

It should be made clear that it has not been a washout summer everywhere.

It has been about average for Rainfall in my area, and the summer has been generally quite nice.

I know that is very IMBY, but others are using generalised broad brush statements, which are not true.

I would be so much happier if people stuck to specifics not generalisations.

I don't think that your perspective is too far from the mark

I have criticised the summer seasonal forecast but it is right to also balance that by saying although it has not in any way met those expectations, it has not neither been quite as poor as some might suggest either. Temps not far from average, and, deceptively, there has been enough sunshine seen to punctuate the generally very showery theme. So unsettled and wetter than average as well, true ,- but then in terms of variety there has been something, at least, for most people. Two sunny warm/very warm spells with easterly winds, a couple of short lived thundery plumes, lots of changeable convective weather with sunshine and downpours.

In that sense, a typically British and changeable summer - albeit wetter than one might expect.

We wait to see what August brings

[William of Walworth]

For those tempted to assume that the rest of August is going to be rubbish, I'd suggest looking at some of the details of John's latest LRF from yesterday, he's correctly being cautious and not promising unbrokenly gorgeous weather by any means, but for later in the month there seem definite signals of marked improvements particularly for the South.

Well if the currently developing El Nino switches to La Nina spring 2010, as often happens, then forget about summer 2010 being much to write home about either.

Key word is 'if' there Gavin ....

This is about as 'reliable' a suggestion as mine is : that after 3 underpar summers in a row, we will be well overdue a much better and more HP dominated one in 2010, and that we have every good chance of this.

Even the most skilled of meterologists is hard pushed to predict accurately for the next four weeks, let alone 12 months.

To be honest I'm pretty impatient with those hinting that because 2007-2009 have been less than inspiring, that must mean that Jet dominated Atanticism is set to be the contiuing watchword for future summers.

NOTHING is set in stone. I'd lay my odds for 2010 more resembling 2003 and 2006 than 2008 and 2009, to be round about 50/50 and there's nothing any of you can say now to contradict that guess!

Edited August 3, 2009 by William of Walworth

[Thundery wintry showers]

Wasn't 1989 a La Nina year? May, June and July of that year were pretty dry, sunny and warm, and August continued in a similar vein in the east and south.

[William of Walworth]

1989 was definitely a scorcher for most, one of the ones most dominated by sunniness and warmth (long spells of that, too) that I can remember.

[mushymanrob]

For those tempted to assume that the rest of August is going to be rubbish, I'd suggest looking at some of the details of John's latest LRF from yesterday, he's correctly being cautious and not promising unbrokenly gorgeous weather by any means, but for later in the month there seem definite signals of marked improvements particularly for the South.

i have seen johns forecast, and it aint good IF its heat you are after. (aug 95 stylee). with the south being favoured...a pretty normal, average month then!

chionomaniacs latest post in model discussion also doesnt bode well for heat and given that the met office has 'written off summer' in terms of sun/heat PLUS theres no sign of any significant pattern change (remember it took 3 weeks for the signes in june to become reality).... i think it IS fair to assume august will not deliever a decent sunny, dry, hot spell.

looking for such a spell now is like looking for a snow event in early feb in a year driven by mild atlantic weather... its possible but imho highly unlikely.

[William of Walworth]

Kind of disagreeing ... I think we have every chance of a pleasantly warm spell well before the month is out, I don't predict any true heatwave, but as for a spell where sunshine and early-20s temps are more prominent, I think we have every good chance and I think John's LRF supports that possibility, albeit as I said before, mainly for the South -- I appreciate you probably have fewer grounds for optimism in Derby though.

Edited August 3, 2009 by William of Walworth

[mushymanrob]

Kind of disagreeing ... I think we have every chance of a pleasantly warm spell well before the month is out, I don't predict any true heatwave, but as for a spell where sunshine and early-20s temps are more prominent, I think we have every good chance and I think John's LRF supports that possibility, albeit as I said before, mainly for the South -- I appreciate you probably have fewer grounds for optimism in Derby though.

...but its not a 'pleasantly warm spell' im on about! its 'summer' as in sun/dry/hot ala 1995! true id be happy with a pleasant warm spell, but thats pretty much what youd expect in a normal august.