New El Nino To Bring Record Breaking 2010

[CardiffStorm]

Read this article in the Independent today. What do you think?

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/new-el-ni241o-threatens-world-with-weather-woe-1766555.html

[Iceberg]

It's possible.

Most of the last 10 years have been in the top 10 years globally.

I have to admit I think it unlikely that it will be the warmest year on record though as I am not anticating the El Nino to last for too much longer as we head into 2010. Maybe a top 3 year.

If the PDO has really turned negative then it would be an almost record breaking ask for an El Nino to last that long and have that much effect.

Not a bad article though maybe a little to warmist and I am not sure I would put the 2006 nice summer on ENSO. That's rather debatable.

[William of Walworth]

'Warmist'?

Do I spot Christopher Booker style denialist language here?

The man's an arrant crackpot whose malign influence discredits an awful lot of what the Daily Telegraph has to say about climate change.

[Iceberg]

Surely not on NW. BTW WOW I am an AGW theory supporter just in case you didn't know.

[mt-leinster-snow-drifts]

In the Irish independant they say that this El Nino will be the second strongest on record , is there any truth in this? Or will it be average?

[ribster]

Good lord, where do you start 'may', 'thought to', 'can', 'expect'. Although it does talk of extremes of hot and cold, unsurprisingly it's the hot that is focused on. Looks like another pretty poor piece of journalism to me, and judging by the source of most of it, well they have to keep their coffers full somehow don't they!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Just what sort of comment is this??

Professor Chris Folland, of the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, said: "We are likely to see more global warming than we have seen in the past few years, which have been rather cool. In fact, we are already seeing it."

Does this mean the Prof Folland accepts that Global Warming hasn't been happening for the "past few years"? Why then does he follow it with "In fact we are already seeing it".

To me "likely to" means that there is the possibility of something, to follow that with "already seeing it" means either the first or the second statement is wrong.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

If you want to see what the forecasters are saying, you can always look here El_Nino Forecast

to me, the most interesting piece is

Model forecasts of SST anomalies for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 5) reflect a growing consensus for the continued development of El Niño (+0.5°C or greater in the Niño-3.4 region). However, the spread of the models indicates disagreement over the eventual strength of El Niño (+0.5°C to +2.0°C).

It takes a temperature anomaly of 0.5C before it is declared an El Nino, so a spread from 0.5-2.0C anomoly is a huge variance between the models. Also there are some very unusual patterns in the pacific anomalies at the moment, see here

Which means that, in reality, the scientists don't know, so why print the article

[Solar Cycles]

You have to laugh, there is nothing like a good old fashioned scaremongering story. Better still, there is nothing like one, without any evidence to back it up! Warmists are getting increasingly twitchy, the climate isn't playing ball, to what their beloved theory, and climate models told us would happen! So what better way to keep us all alarmed, just make up any cock and bull story!

[Gavin P]

By this point in 1997 El Nino had already lifted temperatures between 4-5c above average in regions one and two and three and 2-3c above average in region 3.4;

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_archive/data/anomnight.8.2.1997.gif

Compare that to now;

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.8.3.2009.gif

And we can see we're nowhere near that level.

Edited August 3, 2009 by Gavin P

[Essan]

It will be interesting to see how it pans out - low solar activity v El Nino. I don't think we'll see any records - but a top 5 year at the height of solar cooling would put a few cats amongst the pigeons. As indeed would an even cooler year than 2008 ....

[Mr Maunder]

I would summarise the article as follows: "There is an El Nino coming. In 1998 there was a big El Nino. This one could be a big one as well...or it may not be. That's all we know."

No doubt "Indy" readers lapped it up.

Looking at the latest NOAA forecast this does not suggest that this will be anything other than a moderate El Nino, with most model forecasts showing an SST anomaly peaking below 1.5c.round about December time.

Unless there is dramatic change there is little to get really excited about.

Still, never let the facts get in the way of a good story!

MM

[Mondy]

Forecasters say this one is brewing up to be the second-strongest on record

Forecasters say many things which are totally wrong.

[Solar Cycles]

Forecasters say many things which are totally wrong.

This el nino, will be like one of those cheap fireworks you can buy! It's looking more and more like a weak nino! Shock, horror, I wonder what could be behind that!!!

[Don]

By this point in 1997 El Nino had already lifted temperatures between 4-5c above average in regions one and two and three and 2-3c above average in region 3.4;

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_archive/data/anomnight.8.2.1997.gif

Compare that to now;

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.8.3.2009.gif

And we can see we're nowhere near that level.

Those 1997 Pacific temperatures in the Nino region do indeed look pretty fierce! As for the article, if we see a strong El Nino continue into next year, it wouldn't suprise me if we had a record breakingly warm year. However, low solar activity may subdue its effects somewhat. We shall see.

[Methuselah]

I agree with Solar: you do have to laugh. But, it's not forecasters that are to blame; it's journalists paying too much attention to ignoramouses' blogs IMO?

[Anti-Mild]

If the El Nino does end up being one of the strongest on record (and at the moment that seems particularly doubtful), there is no guarantee that the annual global temp will be the warmest ever. And even if it is, there is nothing to suggest that the UK will experience it's warmest ever year.

Yet more alarmist nonsense perpetrated by the mass media!! My advice, ignore it. By all means debate, but ignore. Thank you.

[Mondy]

The current record breaking low solar minimum will indeed subdue its effects - the trouble is newspapers such as the Indy or Guardian are NOT picking up on this

I agree with Solar: you do have to laugh. But, it's not forecasters that are to blame; it's journalists paying too much attention to ignoramouses' blogs IMO?

Perhaps. Same could be said for pro or anti warmers / coolists. They like what they read to suit their own agenda, subsequently posting in boards such as this.

Let us not lose fact, there is no definitive proof of AGW.

And talking of blogs, I'm thoroughly enjoying AFT's expose on the climate change thread with regards location of temperature stations in the UK.

Edited August 3, 2009 by Delta X-Ray

[Solar Cycles]

I agree with Solar: you do have to laugh. But, it's not forecasters that are to blame; it's journalists paying too much attention to ignoramouses' blogs IMO?

I'm not to sure Pete, having seen sky news I beg to differ!

[January Snowstorm]

First it was the recession, then the swine flu, now the el nino

We'd better all run for the hills me thinks

[Duane S.]

You have to laugh, there is nothing like a good old fashioned scaremongering story. Better still, there is nothing like one, without any evidence to back it up! Warmists are getting increasingly twitchy, the climate isn't playing ball, to what their beloved theory, and climate models told us would happen! So what better way to keep us all alarmed, just make up any cock and bull story!

Nail on head.

A lot of 'environmental journos' are starting to get desperate in their attempts at prolonging their pay packets.

[Cheese Rice]

"increased extremes in Britain, of warm and cold"

So could that mean an extreme cold winter and an extreme warm summer?? But i thought an El Nino meant just exceptionally warm weather and that is it, with the odd brief cold shots that last 24 hour.

[CardiffStorm]

And talking of blogs, I'm thoroughly enjoying AFT's expose on the climate change thread with regards location of temperature stations in the UK.

Sounds very interesting. Do you have a link or something so that I can take a look.

[Mondy]

Sounds very interesting. Do you have a link or something so that I can take a look.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/56159-locating-uk-temperature-stations/

[CardiffStorm]

http://www.netweathe...ature-stations/

Thanks, its not as interesting as I thought actually.