New El Nino To Bring Record Breaking 2010

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The strength will be interesting but moderate at most is my opinion. What more interests me will be its longevity...or lack of. I think decline setting in late December and fairly quick at that.

BFTP

[William of Walworth]

Surely not on NW. BTW WOW I am an AGW theory supporter just in case you didn't know.

Cheers for that, and apologies -- just that you used the word 'warmist' and that led me down the wrong path. That word tends to ring alarm bells for me, let's just say.

On post 3, page 1 yesterday though, I broke my own rule which I made to myself on first joining NW -- that I should never join in any discussions on AGW or climate change. Mostly because of the (political) strength of my opposition to denialists. Of whom there are one or two on here. My extreme dislike of that school of thought won't help calmness in such discussions!

I will put back my lid on that subject from now on ... <buttons it>

If the El Nino does end up being one of the strongest on record (and at the moment that seems particularly doubtful), there is no guarantee that the annual global temp will be the warmest ever. And even if it is, there is nothing to suggest that the UK will experience it's warmest ever year.

Yet more alarmist nonsense perpetrated by the mass media!! My advice, ignore it. By all means debate, but ignore. Thank you.

I'm predicting a good summer next year, 2010, but on pure guesswork and hopecasting really, and also on the basis of 'reasonable likelihood' after 3 poor ones. Certainly not expecting an extreme record breaking summer in 2010 though.

So I tend to concur with anti-Mild here.

Edited August 4, 2009 by William of Walworth

[Gavin P]

The thing about summer 2010 is that its more likely to be a La Nina summer than an El Nino summer. El Nino tends to peak around Christmas and then slowly fade through the remainder of winter, with La Nina conditions then starting to develop around late Spring/early summer (which again peaks the following winter) So based on past trends its quite possible summer 2010 will be poor (worse than this summer?) and winter 2010/2011 will be mild and stormy. Both dominated by La Nina.

Of course, sometimes things can take you by surprise. For instance, the current El Nino may fade before Xmas. La Nina doesn't always follow an El Nino, indeed, El Nino can continue off and on for three or four years in the case of 91-95. However, with the way the PDO has gone negative, my hunch would be that we'll see another pretty potent La Nina next year, which isn't good for our summer prospects, I'm afraid.

Edited August 4, 2009 by Gavin P

[sundog]

This is an audio link

http://www.rte.ie/news/morningireland/player.html?20090804,2589511,2589511,real,209