Major Hurricane Guillermo.

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 91E has become sufficiently organised to be classified as a 30kt tropical depression, a few hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Banding features are wrapping around an increasingly well defined LLC. Shear is low and waters warm, so strengthening is forecast until 10E reaches cooler waters in a few days. NHC forecasts a peak of 50kts but 10E could well get stronger than that before heading into the colder waters. 10E should stay away from land.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates

Edited August 12, 2009 by cookie

[Cookie]

really starting to look good

[Somerset Squall]

really starting to look good

Indeed mate, I reckon this will very soon be Guillermo.

[kold weather]

Well SS its going to be upgraded next advisory from the looks of things.

Convection perhaps could be a little deeper over the center of circulation but other then that its got a very impressive circulation and I think its quite possible this one will end up as a hurricane. Still early days of course but as has been mentioned it looks pretty good.

For now I don't see any issues in regards to strengthening, SST's are pretty good for now and shear levels are low. Could do with a little better low level convergence close to the center to beef up the convection but I strongly suspect the D-Max tomorrow should help out in that respect and allow stronger convection to develop again over the main center of circulation much like earlier today.

I'd guess about 70kts for a peak but we shall see, should start to weaken about 72-84hrs and when it does could go downhill pretty quickly.

EDIT 2.20am---Looks like new convection is bursting over the center, looks like an increase in convergence at lower levels is occuring nearer the center, looking better and better.

Edited August 13, 2009 by kold weather

[Somerset Squall]

10E has become Tropical Storm Guillermo, and intensity has risen to 35kts. Convection continues to slowly increase over the well defined LLC as KW says, and banding features are looking quite impressive this morning. Guillermo is moving west-northwestwards to westwards along the southern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge to the north, which will take the storm over cooler waters beyond 48hrs, which will induce weakening. Because Guillermo is looking so impressive this morning, I agree with KW that the storm may become stronger than the peak of 55kts the NHC have forecast.

[Somerset Squall]

Guillermo's intensity has been upped to 45kts in the latest advisory. Chances for Guillermo to become a hurricane are increasing, and even the official forecast now forecasts a 60kt peak.

[Cookie]

Another named East Pacific storm. number 7

[Somerset Squall]

Guillermo has developed a central dense overcast feature with hints of an eyewall. Banding continues to wrap healthily around the storm's centre. Intensity has increased to 55kts. Guillermo may well become a hurricane tonight before traversing cooler waters later tomorrow which should induce a weakening trend by saturday. I think KW's forecast of a 70kt peak seems very reasonable at this point.

[CardiffStorm]

I believe that the NHC are now forcasting max winds of 70 KT for the 14th at 1800z.

[Cookie]

its really starting to look good

[Somerset Squall]

Hurricane by next advisory I reckon going by this latest image (just out after yours Cookie, shows the continuation of the intensification well ):

[kold weather]

Yep I agree SS that sure does look like a hurricane, my 70kts may be a tiny bit on the low side unless this strengthening stops, that will make a change to be a little on the low side haha!

[Cookie]

yup now a hurricane

[Somerset Squall]

Well, I was quite surprised this morning to find that Guillermo was still a tropical storm. The eye had dissapeared and convection had shrunk. However, Guillermo has resumed the strengthening trend and is now a 70kt, cat 1 hurricane. The eye is slightly cloud obscured but is definitely back. Guillermo has another 24hrs over low shear and warm waters, I reckon the hurricane has a shot at cat 2 before waters cool. A continued west-northwestward motion is expected throughout the next 5 days with weakening to a tropical depression by day 5. Guillermo will probably make it into the Central Pacific but is currently forecast to head northeast of Hawaii.

We are certainly seeing tropical cyclone formation further west than normal this year. The Central Pacific looks like it will be perhaps busier than normal; if Guillermo makes it into the basin then that will be four storms existing in the basin already!

[Cookie]

whats the central Pacific record for one season?

[Somerset Squall]

11 in 1992 and again in 1994. Some seasons have had none, and last year only had one. Average is between 4 and 5. Guillermo would take us to average and it's only mid-August!

[Somerset Squall]

Guillermo is exceeding expectations, and is now an 85kt, cat 2 hurricane. The eye is become more defined, embedded in the cental dense overcast. Guillermo may intensify just a little more in the next 18hrs before conditions deteriorate.

[Somerset Squall]

Guillermo now a 100kt, cat 3, major hurricane. From NHC:

HURRICANE GUILLERMO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009

1030 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GUILLERMO HAS INTENSIFIED QUICKLY

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE NOW COMPLETELY

SURROUNDED BY A THICK RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. A SPECIAL

DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AT 0430 UTC GAVE A T-NUMBER OF

5.5...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 100 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS TO

ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGE IN INITIAL INTENSITY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS

EXPECTED BY 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS...AND

A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEYOND THAT TIME AS THE

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO INCREASE

MARKEDLY BY 36 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...AS IS THE

INTENSITY FORECAST AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.

THE WIND RADII FORECAST HAS MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASE IN

INTENSITY THROUGH 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0530Z 18.4N 130.8W 100 KT

12HR VT 15/1200Z 18.7N 132.3W 100 KT

24HR VT 16/0000Z 19.3N 135.0W 90 KT

36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.9N 137.6W 70 KT

48HR VT 17/0000Z 20.5N 140.2W 60 KT

72HR VT 18/0000Z 22.2N 145.3W 40 KT

96HR VT 19/0000Z 24.0N 150.5W 30 KT

120HR VT 20/0000Z 26.0N 156.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Somerset Squall]

Guillermo has become even stronger this afternoon, it has blown all intensity estimates truly out of the water!! Guillermo's intensity is now at 110kts, and, dare I say it, Guillermo could have a small shot at cat 4 status. Guillermo is right on edge of the warmer waters, so weakening is forecast to begin very soon. Guillermo will probably weaken faster than Felicia did over the cooler waters as Guillermo is not showing any annular characteristics and is also moving further north. An impressive hurricane with some rapid intensification, responded really well to the good conditions out there.

Sat image shows the very small, well defined eye:

[Somerset Squall]

Guillermo is weakening a little sooner than expected. The eye still remains well defined, but convectional coverage is shrinking and dry air is punching dangerously close to the western side of the eye. Waters are now quite rapidly cooling beneath Guillermo, so continued weakening is expected as the hurricane continues to drift northwestwards. Intensity is now at 95kts, making Guillermo a cat 2.

[Somerset Squall]

Guillermo continues to weaken this morning, with intensity now at 85kts. The hurricane still maintains a fairly well defined eye and a soild ring of convection surrounding it, despite moving over waters below 25C now. Shear is progged to increase soon which should really make the weakening kick in. For now though, Guillermo is doing quite well considering where it is!

[Somerset Squall]

Maybe I spoke too soon, that ring of convection isn't looking so solid anymore, in fact, it looks a little thin on the western side indicating that the cooler waters are really taking effect now and that shear may be increasing.

[Cookie]

sorry for the lack of updates been to busy

old image but looked really good yesterday

another old one

kinda got ignored this system with bill and Ana on the scene

[Somerset Squall]

Agreed with the last sentence Cookie, would've been different if Guillermo at it's peak intensity of 110kts was baring down on land. Thank goodness this stayed out to sea!