Arctic Ice 2009/2010

[Gray-Wolf]

Whats all this talk of comparing with the old ?

If the Arctic is ice free in the summer in the next 20 years, wont be much need for it.

Had me a little confused too! (not hard really).

I can only think somerfolk are preparing themselves for 'volume' measures as opposed to 'extent' once we have Cryosat2 on line.

I'm sure if we receive news that volume is higher than we thought they'd change their minds though (lol).

As it is I think some folk know full well the inadequacies of the current measure and the fib's it tells (like 'recovery') and with only the truth to go on all they can do is deny the relevance of the data ("nothing to compare it to", "not capable enough" etc, etc)

[The PIT]

Had me a little confused too! (not hard really).

I can only think somerfolk are preparing themselves for 'volume' measures as opposed to 'extent' once we have Cryosat2 on line.

I'm sure if we receive news that volume is higher than we thought they'd change their minds though (lol).

As it is I think some folk know full well the inadequacies of the current measure and the fib's it tells (like 'recovery') and with only the truth to go on all they can do is deny the relevance of the data ("nothing to compare it to", "not capable enough" etc, etc)

The fibs have always been there GW so the data has to stand I'm afraid.

[Gray-Wolf]

That's alright if you read between the 'fib's' but the final phase of the catastrophic phase of Arctic melt has only been ongoing for 8 years and , I suspect, many casual observers have only had their interest piqued since the 07' melt. As such they have no idea about how the figures can misinterpret what's on the ground.

There will come a ,over this summer?, where remnant perennial is not close enough to the 15%+ criteria and so will be missed off. I'm sure the folk who make noises about ice extent 'increases' (when ice is spread thinly but just satisfies the criteria like we have today) will be miffed when ice extent is negligible but they can physically 'see' ice around the Arctic basin.

As it stands most folk feel ice min . is the important figure of the year as ice max. is mainly single year ice that melts out before summers end (temporary feature) and we are all concerned about the ice that endures a summer melt season as it forms the base for any 'recovery'.

When we work in thickness and volume we will have a much more solid view each seasons end.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100413081233.htm

So the data is flowing in and there seem to be no issues. This is better than I could have hoped for with the promise of data release as soon as they have acrued enough. The initial phase of ice melt is underway but the data they are now gathering will give us a glimpse of this years 'start point' to compare ditectly with next years.

You would hope that the Canadian sector would have a better winter in 10'/11' so we could see some positive results come next march!

As for the ice thickness info across the high Arctic this will be very interesting as it will set the scene for this years ice melt.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The ice extent is at 13,848,281 km2 up to the 13th, which has led to a slight increase over the other years.

We're now 135,000km2 above 2008, 200,500km2 above 2009 and almost 59,000km2 above 2003.

The melt rate, while not exceptional, is quite fast though and will need to slow up a little to stay above the rest, particularly 2009.

[Gray-Wolf]

C'mon NaDamanta!

Check last march 31st with this march 31st over at C.T. and see where the bulk of the ice is that 'plumped up' the final 'max extent' figure.

Check the Modis images to see how this ice is doing now and then check all the regions that had a warm winter across the pole.

I think you'll find that the 'line' is gonna plummet some time soon to the position it was in ,compared to other IJIS years, back in December.

Once we reach the point of 'lowest in the series' the extra ice from the periphery will be gone and we'll be looking at the mush that used to be the solid core perennial for the 'June through Sept' period.

You can ,of course, remind me of what I say come June but I reckon there is only one set of circumstances would lead you to do that

EDIT:

Something just cropped up on another site that caused me to respond and I thought I'd like to share it here before we go down the same path.

Remember this from March 27th this year?

If you were a Sub Capt. where would you surface?

Now I firmly believe that 'leads' opened up in both the 'old' and the 'new' Arctic and if I were a Sub Capt. (be it in 1957 or in 1998) I'd have sounded out the thinnest ice to bring my 'tin can' up under (and not 5m of ice!!!). So did they.

Do not be fooled by things that take a little knowledge and 1 minutes thinking to solve.

Edited April 14, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

C'mon NaDamanta!

Check last march 31st with this march 31st over at C.T. and see where the bulk of the ice is that 'plumped up' the final 'max extent' figure.

Check the Modis images to see how this ice is doing now and then check all the regions that had a warm winter across the pole.

I think you'll find that the 'line' is gonna plummet some time soon to the position it was in ,compared to other IJIS years, back in December.

Once we reach the point of 'lowest in the series' the extra ice from the periphery will be gone and we'll be looking at the mush that used to be the solid core perennial for the 'June through Sept' period.

You can ,of course, remind me of what I say come June but I reckon there is only one set of circumstances would lead you to do that

Did I say something wrong!?

I'm just judging by the figures on the IJIS site GW. From the last 8 years we're still top. Out of those years from the 3-13th April (last 10 days of data), we have just about the 2nd fastest rate of ice loss at an average 48015km2/day, with the average being around 40,000km2/day, and the fastest being 2004 which was 75266km2/day which is what it would have to be close to for me to consider it exceptional. Taking into account the large extent at the beginning of April, I think the rate of loss could be much worse.

CT doesn't have the comparison maps for the 31st March last year but I get that much of the extra extent has been thanks to ice around the Bering Sea. Saying that, ice peaked above average around the Barents towards the end of March too but is dropping away now. I agree that the ice does not look great at the moment, but most of my concern is around Svalbard, the ice hasn't looked that bad since 2006

[Gray-Wolf]

Sorry NaDamanta, didn't think I'd snapped at you . You are correct in your observations but I've been trying to help folk prepare for the losses of the 'late spurt' ice and to focus on the important 'inner core pack' as it seems to be it's 'persistence' we are most concerned about.

About half of the perennial left in the Arctic was plotted as being north of Svalbard at the end of last year so it is a worry that we're seeing the single year let go so early. The rest of the perennial was across the area Dr B. examined in late Sept/early Oct so we don't really know what is perennial there and what is rotten ice yet. As for the high Arctic , well the march 27th sat image surely gives rise for concern with 2nd and 3rd order leads already in place.

Sorry again if I appeared 'sharp' it's not you , just me allowing 'less friendly sites' get under my skin (silly me). At the end of the day Sept's figures will show how the ice did this summer and not me second guessing (though it won't stop me!!!! Hah!).

Edited April 14, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[stewfox]

Sorry again if I appeared 'sharp' it's not you , just me allowing 'less friendly sites' get under my skin (silly me). At the end of the day Sept's figures will show how the ice did this summer and not me second guessing (though it won't stop me!!!! Hah!).

Have a 'guess' then for a min figure this year ? Do you think it will be less then 2007 ?.

No ones going to bring it up if your miles sorry millions of sq kms out

My punt I think 5,876,977 sq kms on sept 16th.

[Gray-Wolf]

I honestly think we'll be approaching 07's figure by mid Aug.

We will then have another month of ice loss so I'll say 07 or under by mid Sept.

[stewfox]

I honestly think we'll be approaching 07's figure by mid Aug.

We will then have another month of ice loss so I'll say 07 or under by mid Sept.

I fear the latest volcano eruption has put the final nail in the coffin of the arctic ice.

Stands to reason some of that dark 'soot' is going to settle on that white pristine ice and ….. White reflect black absorbs

Cant find a link yet , where is the WWF when you need it ??

Edited April 15, 2010 by stewfox

[Gray-Wolf]

No worries Stew , current synoptics runs it well south of any 'ice' so you just have AGW to worry about (record global temps, warm plumes etc.) and the pee poor condition of the ice in the high Arctic...........

[Solar Cycles]

No worries Stew , current synoptics runs it well south of any 'ice' so you just have AGW to worry about (record global temps, warm plumes etc.) and the pee poor condition of the ice in the high Arctic...........

Explain how that is down to AGW please!

[shuggee]

No don't GW - this is the Arctic Ice thread.

[Solar Cycles]

No don't GW - this is the Arctic Ice thread.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Going by the IJIS figures, Arctic ice extent now down to 13,817,500 km2, so we've only lost around 30,000km2 in the last 2 days. This has brought the average loss over the last 10 days down to 41,078.1km2 which is the 4th highest in the last 8 years and around 1500km2 above average. The lowest rate of loss being 2009 at 18,828km2/day and the highest being 2004 at 79,250km2/day.

We are now 138,594km2 above 2003 and 462,578km2 above the 2003-present average. I reckon by this time next week we will be below 2009 as that lost very little in the middle third of April, and it's unlikely we'll repeat that feat this year. After that it's anybodies guess!

[Iceberg]

I think it has been mentioned already.

But some good stuff from NSIDC. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Firstly the very warm March over most of the Arctic (backed up by the record breaking Global temperature for March), which has led to reduced thickness according to NSIDC.

Also the movement of the >1 year old ice over the winter which has a useful pointer to summer minimum ice extent and which areas might have the least ice.

Looks like the NE passage has a good chance of opening, given a repeat of last year, whereas the Alaskan side might hold up a little more.

There is more older ice than last year though which will act as a benefit come summer.

[Gray-Wolf]

I think it has been mentioned already.

But some good stuff from NSIDC. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Firstly the very warm March over most of the Arctic (backed up by the record breaking Global temperature for March), which has led to reduced thickness according to NSIDC.

Also the movement of the >1 year old ice over the winter which has a useful pointer to summer minimum ice extent and which areas might have the least ice.

Looks like the NE passage has a good chance of opening, given a repeat of last year, whereas the Alaskan side might hold up a little more.

There is more older ice than last year though which will act as a benefit come summer.

I tend to think that the Siberian side of things now has a 'normal ocean profile' having spent 10 summers open to wind and wave action (smashing the old 'polar' horizons esp. the thermohaline layer) the chances of the area holding onto 'summer ice' are dramatically reduced.

The Alaskan/Canadian side are the Areas of Dr B's studies so the ice there may not be as durable as the 'old charts' make out. We should know by July how 'durable the ice is' but I'd tend to think that it'll melt out far more than over the past 2 years.

My greatest concerns for the Arctic are for ice within this old bastion of the perennial as once this has gone so has a predictable summer ice pack. With open water comes 'mixing' and we loose that cold,fresh upper horizon (replacing it with 'warm,salty') making ice retention ever more difficult.

The other point is the speed of water entering the basin through Bering. Last year the flow rate was the highest recorded. What has changed to enable this? are the channels within the Archipelago now able to accept this water (not frozen to near sea bed level)? what will that mean for the Archipelago and west coast of Greenland (via Davis)? If we do have a 'new' current of warm Pacific entering Bering and exiting via West Greenland/Newfoundland then pretty soon the Archipelago will be swept clear of remnant 'old perennial' and the ice sheets on the islands will recede even faster than my previous post suggests.

Edited April 18, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[songster]

Time for a summer ice melt thread yet?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html

This tells us the web cam will be up and running in the next 2 weeks........watch this space!!!

And, yup, songster I think we are due a new thread!

[stewfox]

http://www.arctic.no...gallery_np.html

This tells us the web cam will be up and running in the next 2 weeks........watch this space!!!

And, yup, songster I think we are due a new thread!

If only the artic ice would get out of winter mode I would agree.

Seems to be levelling of AGAIN now at just under 13.8m

Maybe sub 12m by mid june ??

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

[The PIT]

Still doing quiet well at the moment. Best year yet according that chart Stew

[noggin]

This post is really aimed at G-Wolfie, in a nice way, of course!

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Wolfie, does this graph not give you some cause for optimism, (or is it that I don't understand graphs? )

It looks to me as if the ice reached a low low (IYKWIM!) in 2007, got better in 2008, better again in 2009 and is not looking too bad for 2010, so far.

Does this not give you some hope........even a teeny-weeny bit?

[Gray-Wolf]

Sorry Nogg's , it is just an illusion (I will of course be measured by these statements!).

Ice extent is a very poor way of measuring the health of the pack and ,before anyone comes at me with "we've measured it this way since....." , the Arctic is now 'different' as it has lost the majority of it's durable ice so anywhere across the Pole is liable to melt with only 'favourable conditions' enabling it to maintain through summer.

If we have a look at the MODIS images (now it's back up and working again!) you'll see what I mean with most of the 'late spurt' ice now melting fast (but still covering 15% or more of the ocean) and will be gone in 4 or 5 weeks. Look at the 'Arctic Exits' and you'll see the ice there (Fram/Davis/Baffin Island) is in a similar state (i.e. ahead of itself) and this will also be disappearing around the same time as the 'late spurt ice'.....a double whammy of ice loss in fact. Over the next 4 weeks I would predict that the little red line will plummet into the rest of the lines at the steepest rate of decline on the chart.

There is nothing alarming about this, had we not had the 'late spurt' then the 'normal ice' would have melted out around the rates we have become used to over the past few years but this year we have a lot of ice outside the arctic that is included on the graph and that will not endure the 'normal spring temps' in the Pacific/Atlantic.

Check out Hudson Bay and tell me that it is not a little ahead of itself this year (still over 15% but lots of 'small ice' and open water).

When we had huge big chunks of ice North of Greenland and through the Archipelago the loss of ice would slow down once it eroded back to the thick stuff (would not melt out) but now ,without the thick stuff, it will just continue to melt at a steady rate.

Dr Barbers discoveries of the 'Chameleon ice' means that we have even more ice that can melt this year as the perennial that collapsed into this 'rotten ice' faces it's first summer melt.

This rotten ice is what interests me this year. The Canadian archipelago and North of Greenland may well be ice free this year as this shattered perennial melts out (you'll be able to sail around Greenland) opening up another route for ice to flow out of the Arctic (across the north of Greenland).

Recent studies have discovered that it was not a positive AO that accelerated the melt through the 90's as it turned predominantly -ve through the noughties and ,instead of the loss slowing it accelerated.

Norwegian studies have now shown that a 'new' air pressure set up across North Russia is responsible for the export of ice through Fram. I'm not going to guess 'why' this 'novel' pressure pattern has arisen but this years -ve AO promises 'more of the same' for the ice and with N. Greenland looking set to go this year more 'free ice' will be shipped out down Fram across this route (the gate is left open).

The other 'worry' for the year is the global temps. If we are to have a 'record warm year' then the propensity for Atlantic blocking during low solar activity promises to ship this warm air up over the Canadian Arctic (as it did through winter) and speed the melt there (NW Passage open again this year?).

If , by June, we are still above all the other extents I will be pleasantly surprised but I'm not gonna hold my breath!!!

[stewfox]

If , by June, we are still above all the other extents I will be pleasantly surprised but I'm not gonna hold my breath!!!

I think the real test comes at the end of June before then all years are fairly well clustered.