Arctic Ice 2009/2010

[Gray-Wolf]

From looking at the old 'pole cam' thread they were setting it up this time last year but I can't find any mention of it's imminant return......anyone got any news?

EDIT:

http://news.therecord.com/Opinions/EditorialOpinion/article/694384

Another look at the poor ice formation across the high Arctic Arctic and the 'unusual weather' across Bering (Freaky Arctic weather as Mark Serezze puts it).

Edited April 11, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

2nd day of large losses in ice extent, yesterday we lost 80,400km2 and today we lost 84,000km2. This brings us back under 2003, but only by a little. Biggest drops seem to have occurred in the Greenland and Barents sea.

Something else that seems kinda odd to me is the loss of sea ice on the north coast of Svalbard, perhaps I'm wrong, but is it not a bit unusual for that to happen so soon in the melt season?

[MR EXTREMES]

I understand that the ice breaker mission was over last summer and his 'rotten ice/collapsing perennial' was late sept early oct of 09'.......well into the so called 'recovery' period. This was ,to me, why it was so worrisome.

Lot's of folk on here crying 'recovery' over wind blown, streched out ,single year ice whilst the perennial (whats left of it) was in full collapse or misdiagnosed (by sat. feedback) as 'solid ice' (hence why the Canadian ice maps had shown it as such.

The Canadian coastguards are supposedly the lead in ice mapping of Arctic waters (the russians are not supposed to be as good) yet they were mapping smashed slush as solid multiyear ice.

The last time I checked they were still using the 'eroneous' plots to advise shipping but I'm sure come late spring/open water they'll have to update as shipping will once again be using the deep water maps.

If they are updated we may well see transpolar shipping this year as there will be no obsticles to this left in the high Arctic.

EDIT: I'll post this again;

http://environmental.../yournews/41112

with Dr B. talking about 'Last Septembers' findings. It goes on to note the continued collapse of the old perennial and the fact that it was at it's lowest ever recorded in 09'.

its not single ice thats recovered multi year ice has to i already posted a chart that clearly show atleast 3 years of recovery.

[cooling climate]

2nd day of large losses in ice extent, yesterday we lost 80,400km2 and today we lost 84,000km2. This brings us back under 2003, but only by a little. Biggest drops seem to have occurred in the Greenland and Barents sea.

Something else that seems kinda odd to me is the loss of sea ice on the north coast of Svalbard, perhaps I'm wrong, but is it not a bit unusual for that to happen so soon in the melt season?

According to the synoptic model output and especially the latest run from the GFS model bitter cold

is likely to return over the pole, Spitsbergen and the Greenland sea.

A deep area of low pressure (vortex ) is expected to position itself to the north of Spitsbergen introducing

a prolonged spell of bitter cold.

[MR EXTREMES]

Thanks, it's a shame the relevant organisations can't update their websites to show this, as according to even the International Polar Year website, the ice breaker mission ended in 2008 and there was no subsequent mission aboard the Ammundson.

So, if we were to take your post as gospel as opposed to supposition, we now have a greater extent with a higher albedo, being younger ice in the more extreme and snowier areas this will be true. I do wonder how much of a greater effect on climate a few extra feet depth of perennial ice really has, the extent and therefore albedo effect surely is greater in thinner more expansive ice. So, whilst you may be correct, does it matter as the past couple of years summer and winter extents have been increasing and therefore affecting climate more generally than the thickness?

IF the trend continues then it will be self fulfilling, at least that is opposite to what you were saying when the extent was falling?

Just my thoughts, I am not a scientist like you so wouldn't try an mislead people into posting my beliefs as fact.

Steve

thats a excellent observation and yes more ice more albedo fact.

to much focus gray wolf is on the loss and not enough on recovery by your approach to this thread i get the feeling your trying to cloud peoples judgement.

my uncle lives far north in canada and he has told me whats happened in the last few years is absolutely caught alot of people by suprise with cold hitting the headlines alot over thease years,

and thats coming from someone who also see the climate change in his part of the world when warming was having an effect,he was also on side with man made gw,

he now is firmly against it just by his observations in his own country,

he also feels there is a increasing cover up somewhere along the lines.

as for the ice its not far of 79 levels but if come september things look good again it might be time for gray wolf to bow to mother nature.

oh and gray wolf theres lots of reasons to why seals are starving lets say there so used to the warmer climate they been used to then things change cuasing more cold there for they will now need to adapt once more.

as for using global warming as the cause for them starving then i think thats yet another push.

if there was a fuel strike then no food would get to the supermarkets,

then we to would becoming hungry so do we blame that on global warming :lol:

[Gray-Wolf]

I thought it was the 'heat' across Canada that had been capturing the medias attention over the past 6 months bb?

As for the L.P. progged ( sure it's not just FI? ) the wind and swell that this introduces into the fragile ice is very disruptive and leads to open water as ice is blown around the L.P. Also be mindful that cold air may migrate south but ,nature not liking vacuums, warm air is drawn into the basin. At this time of year there is a lot of warm air about (look at the temp records being broken in NE U.S. or Canada) and then figure where the air being drawn up will come from. The 'trick' is to maintain a stable cold pool in the high Arctic not to have the air there replaced with more temperate so early in the season.

Check out the northern flank of the system and see which ice will be driven south and if this is blocked by coast's or feeds into Fram or Davis. As we have been finding the water temp and not the 2m temps are the thing that is eating the ice. The L.P. may also be driving warmer waters in front of it so check it's SW quad to see which area waters are being drawn in from.

Waters around Svalbard. I posted a image of an area north ,NE of Svalbard over a 4 day period in March which showed a remarkable loss of ice over the period. The 250m image shows no 'over-riding so you have to suspect that this mush just melted. This of course ,in it's turn, leaves more open water for the 'new perennial' there to float into (as yesterdays MODIS images showed.

I'm sorry to repeat myself but the 'extra ice' that brought us the late surge was the breakup of the ice in Bering as it drifted south. This ice is now melting and we can get back to the true measure of polar stability which is the high arctic ice and esp. the perennial. As I've said this is in a state of dis-array and the seasons melt will highlight just how bad it is. We have had 3 years of collapsing 'old perennial' (as Dr B. highlights in his autumn mission of last year) and this messed up ice will reveal itself by the rapidity of melt this early summer.

I'd advise folk to keep an eye on the old haunts of the 'old perennial' to the North of Greenland and through the Canadian Archipelago. If you start to see open water there you can be assured that the 'old perennial' is all but gone and as it is perennial that lasts through summer, and not 1st,second and 3rd year ice of 2m+ thickness (more like the 35ft thick 'old perennial' for obvious reasons), we will have a 'seasonal pack in waiting'.

Better hope we don't have a warm one as that will see all ice exposed (that is perennial) melt out.

EDIT: Fur Seals,

Baby fur seals are born with a snowy white coat (which is why we club them to death and don't just shoot them). This evolved to hide the pup on open ice sheet (next to the ice hole where mum hunt's).

No ice, no cover, no mum or food (and still Canada increase to quota to be clubbed this year????)

EDIT,EDIT:

http://www.amundsen....x.php?url=11410

itinery for the 09' expedition with Dr B. and his team setting off in June 09' for 5 months.......I though someone said they couldn't find this and it's link to the IPY studies?

EDIT:EDIT:EDIT;

Seeing as you got me started have a look at this;

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?2010100/crefl1_143.A2010100225000-2010100225500.250m.jpg

This shows where the majority of extra ice formed/was stretched/blown. Take a look at the southern extremity and see the melted out 'white water' heading south in swirls. Next look at the LP system approaching the area and give me your best guess what this will do to this 'extra ice that brings things up to 79' extent levels'.

This is what was meant by the March growth spurt being due to 'Freaky Arctic weather'. Today we'll see 'normal north Pacific spring weather' remove the anomally over a 3 day period.

Edited April 11, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[MR EXTREMES]

call me what you like i have family there and they are now convinced that there seems to have been changes in our climate once again.

your last part of your post gray wolf:

This is what was meant by the March growth spurt being due to 'Freaky Arctic weather'. Today we'll see 'normal north Pacific spring weather' remove the anomally over a 3 day period.

freak arctic weather you call it,

ok then that sums it up then,

that helps the 2007 freaky arctic weather that caused record melts.

The highest temperature officially recorded in Canada is 45 °C (113 °F) on July 5, 1937 at Midale and at Yellow Grass, two small towns in southeastern Saskatchewan.

puts things into perspective really that was way back in 1937 not seen temps like that for a longtime.

Western Canada

Heat waves of over 40 °C (104 °F) have repeatedly swept through towns and cities in southern Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and the southern interior of British Columbia.

Here are the highest temperatures recorded for some of the hottest spots in western Canada. Many of these places have topped 40 degrees Celsius more than once. Location °C Date Lillooet and Lytton, BC 44.4 July 16 & 17, 1941 St Albans, Manitoba 44.4 July 11, 1936 Emerson, Manitoba 44.4 July 12, 1936 Brandon and Morden, Manitoba 43.3 July 11, 1936 Regina, Saskatchewan 43.3 July 5, 1937 Fort Macleod, Alberta 43.3 July 18, 1941 Oliver, BC 42.8 July 27, 1939 Osoyoos, BC 42.8 July 27, 1998 Spences Bridge, BC 42.5 July 23, 1994 Medicine Hat, Alberta 42.2 July 12, 1886 Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan 41.7 Aug 6, 1949 Winnipeg, Manitoba 40.6 Aug 7, 1949 Saskatoon, Saskatchewan 40.6 June 5, 1988 Kamloops, BC 40.6 July 31, 1971

Eastern Canada

A few spots in Ontario, Quebec, and Newfoundland and Labrador have also recorded temperatures over 40 °C: Location °C Date Atikokan, Ontario 42.2 July 11 & 12, 1936 Northwest River, Labrador 41.7 Aug 11, 1914 Windsor, Ontario 40.2 June 25, 1988 Temiscamingue, Quebec 40.0 July 6, 1921 A heat wave hit Canada's maritime provinces in mid-August of 1935, setting many record highs that have remained unbeaten for over 70 years: Location °C Date Woodstock, New Brunswick 39.4 Aug 18, 1935 Rexton, New Brunswick 39.4 Aug 19, 1935 Collegeville, Nova Scotia 38.3 Aug 19, 1935 Charlottetown, PEI 36.7 Aug 19, 1935

its also been the coldest in 25 years.

The U.S. just experienced its coldest winter in 25 years, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The winter period December - February was the 18th coldest winter in the contiguous U.S. over the past 115 years, and the coldest since 1984 - 1985. It was also a wet winter, ranking 19th wettest. The states experiencing the coldest winters, relative to average, were Texas and Louisiana, which had their 5th coldest winters on record. Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina also had a top-ten coldest winter. The only state much above average was Maine, which had its 3rd warmest winter. As I discussed earlier this week, this winter's cold weather over the U.S. is largely due to the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, which assumed its most extreme negative configuration since record keeping began in 1950. El Niño helped keep things cool from Texas to the Southeastern U.S., as well.

Edited April 11, 2010 by badboy657

[Gray-Wolf]

I don't recall calling you anything other than bb ,bb?

Yup Florida had a cold winter but that is not of importance when we're talking about the loss of arctic ice is it?

If the Map you posted moved up into Canada you'd start to see red's appearing in the NW area this winter. Those 'reds' are getting near to where the ice is supposed to form.....and didn't.

Once again so we all have it clear. The ice in the 'extent' that pushed things up to the 'average line' was not inside the Arctic Basin but thin ice spread out over the furthest extent of the ice this year and most notably beyond the bering straights where it had formed but was then broken up by the March high tides and blown south by the (as Dr Mark Serezze worded it) "Freaky Arctic Weather".

This ice was on it's last legs as it extended the 'ice extent'.

It did not 'grow'.

It merely spread out from a once solid pack.

Please look at MODIS and see for yourself.

We are midst one of the warmest global years on record and that heat is now working its way back north along with spring. Have you noted the positive sst anoms in the Atlantic?. So we look to inherit the kind of summer season that the southern hemisphere has over the past 5 months and check out the SST's they had there.

Warm water melts ice better than warm air.

[laserguy]

Yup Florida had a cold winter but that is not of importance when we're talking about the loss of arctic ice is it?

Why,does stuff not live and grow in Florida?

[Gray-Wolf]

Why,does stuff not live and grow in Florida?

Perennial ice certainly doesn't and Florida swapped airs with the area that normally grows it. It's a worry is it not?

[cooling climate]

call me what you like i have family there and they are now convinced that there seems to have been changes in our climate once again.

your last part of your post gray wolf:

This is what was meant by the March growth spurt being due to 'Freaky Arctic weather'. Today we'll see 'normal north Pacific spring weather' remove the anomally over a 3 day period.

freak arctic weather you call it,

ok then that sums it up then,

that helps the 2007 freaky arctic weather that caused record melts.

The highest temperature officially recorded in Canada is 45 °C (113 °F) on July 5, 1937 at Midale and at Yellow Grass, two small towns in southeastern Saskatchewan.

puts things into perspective really that was way back in 1937 not seen temps like that for a longtime.

Western Canada

Heat waves of over 40 °C (104 °F) have repeatedly swept through towns and cities in southern Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and the southern interior of British Columbia.

Here are the highest temperatures recorded for some of the hottest spots in western Canada. Many of these places have topped 40 degrees Celsius more than once. Location °C Date Lillooet and Lytton, BC 44.4 July 16 & 17, 1941 St Albans, Manitoba 44.4 July 11, 1936 Emerson, Manitoba 44.4 July 12, 1936 Brandon and Morden, Manitoba 43.3 July 11, 1936 Regina, Saskatchewan 43.3 July 5, 1937 Fort Macleod, Alberta 43.3 July 18, 1941 Oliver, BC 42.8 July 27, 1939 Osoyoos, BC 42.8 July 27, 1998 Spences Bridge, BC 42.5 July 23, 1994 Medicine Hat, Alberta 42.2 July 12, 1886 Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan 41.7 Aug 6, 1949 Winnipeg, Manitoba 40.6 Aug 7, 1949 Saskatoon, Saskatchewan 40.6 June 5, 1988 Kamloops, BC 40.6 July 31, 1971

Eastern Canada

A few spots in Ontario, Quebec, and Newfoundland and Labrador have also recorded temperatures over 40 °C: Location °C Date Atikokan, Ontario 42.2 July 11 & 12, 1936 Northwest River, Labrador 41.7 Aug 11, 1914 Windsor, Ontario 40.2 June 25, 1988 Temiscamingue, Quebec 40.0 July 6, 1921 A heat wave hit Canada's maritime provinces in mid-August of 1935, setting many record highs that have remained unbeaten for over 70 years: Location °C Date Woodstock, New Brunswick 39.4 Aug 18, 1935 Rexton, New Brunswick 39.4 Aug 19, 1935 Collegeville, Nova Scotia 38.3 Aug 19, 1935 Charlottetown, PEI 36.7 Aug 19, 1935

its also been the coldest in 25 years.

The U.S. just experienced its coldest winter in 25 years, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The winter period December - February was the 18th coldest winter in the contiguous U.S. over the past 115 years, and the coldest since 1984 - 1985. It was also a wet winter, ranking 19th wettest. The states experiencing the coldest winters, relative to average, were Texas and Louisiana, which had their 5th coldest winters on record. Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina also had a top-ten coldest winter. The only state much above average was Maine, which had its 3rd warmest winter. As I discussed earlier this week, this winter's cold weather over the U.S. is largely due to the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, which assumed its most extreme negative configuration since record keeping began in 1950. El Niño helped keep things cool from Texas to the Southeastern U.S., as well.

Why let yourself be suckered into pointless arguments with G.W. why not open another Arctic sea ice

thread and leave G.W. and his wayward rantings to himself.

[laserguy]

Perennial ice certainly doesn't and Florida swapped airs with the area that normally grows it. It's a worry is it not?

Losing plantations/orchards etc etc is more of a worry than a few chunks of ice in the Arctic wastelands,but I'm sure they'll get over it in the long run. GW,is there anything,anything at all that you don't fret and fluster over?

[Gray-Wolf]

GW,is there anything,anything at all that you don't fret and fluster over?

In truth? Nope........ sometimes I'm right to be so pernickerty......only sometimes.

Edited April 11, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

Why let yourself be suckered into pointless arguments with G.W. why not open another Arctic sea ice

thread and leave G.W. and his wayward rantings to himself.

I think Jack1 would be fully on for that!!!

Let's leave the factual side of winters end to J1 and open a new thread for '2010, predictions of sea ice melt'?

[oldsnowywizard]

hi everyone, well apologies for not posting on here for a while, I have decided to leave the UK and move to Zurich.. typical that as soon as I did the UK has a belter of a cold spell.. anywho.. would you believe that the public transport system over here works regardless of how much snow falls... and the roads dont have pot holes in ... ;-) anyway back to sea ice...

GW nice to see you are keeping everyone entertained on here.... stating a few obvious ones though.. well of course the sea ice extent extra is on the fringes.. where else would it be?

im sure some of the extra extent is from glaciers moving out etc.. but then it should have had more of an impact last year or the year before.. personal assumption there of course.. mutli year ice has improved but the definition of multi year is much under scrutiny.

lets see what happens with the summer melt and take it from there... again a rollercoaster i think..

I was reading a post about wind having the most significant impact on sea ice.. be interesting to see if ice flushing out of greenland is slowed down due to favourable wind conditions?, which might help.. it raises the question i guess should someone put a great big barrier - or cable between Svalbard and Greenland to stop the ice being flushed out?

[MR EXTREMES]

thats a good idear oldsnowywizard.

as for arctic this year whilst the minimum is set to continue i really think it may well work in our favour.

http://wattsupwithth...ycle-24-update/

and gray wolf as you can see there is not much to worry about just minor areas lets put it this way its the best its been in some years.

i think the arctic will fair well and as was rightly pointed out its looking likely cold is set to return for awhile.

possible west neg nao aswell which should help that side,with even the uk looking likely to cool down but nothing major but still cool.

all good news if you ask me.:winky:

Edited April 11, 2010 by badboy657

[Gray-Wolf]

Good move OSW!!!

Let's ajourne over to the other thread eh?

We've a lot to mull over when you find the time OSW"

Meanwhile if it's about ' what is to be'.....' then move over.........'

If it's about 'here and now' then stay here...........

"Hic,....hic...."

EDIT:If they say it's 90% of ice flushed out ,OSW ,then vwhy is it beyond our technology??? Cheaper than some of the 'Carbon Penalties' some countries seem willing to pay????

Edited April 11, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

Just a quick update on the ice in front of Bering.

Yesterday's Modis images show not only that the ice is being spread wider apart but also that a lot ,to the south, is gone! just that 'milky water swirls' left. The next 2 days of IJIS plots should be interesting.

EDIT: Oh , and the Baltic is freeing up nicely.......but then it would wouldn't it?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8615172.stm

Looks like all is working fine with Cryosat2

[pottyprof]

Woopiedoo!!!!!!!!!!!

Hmm it works on a calculation that says 1/8th is above water.. What about anomalies that we can't see??

So we're still working with stuff that isn't real data.............. It's approximating..... It's a guess.. It's nothing to do with actual volume.. All it does is look at the space between the ice.. and then guess...

I seriously thought that we may have been spending money on serious research...

Great value for money!!

[Gray-Wolf]

Nothing pleases some folk! In truth what else do we have up there to compare? It's not like the ice will wait 'till NASA puts up ICESat now is it, GRACE ran far longer than it was designed to but with carefully timed 'hibernations' brought us some insight into the scale of changes to the Arctic ice over the noughties.

A look at Modis will show you that there is plenty of broken ice out there so plenty of opportunity to scan for 'thick ice' even now (seeing as they're checking systems and doing the first real sweeps of the arctic).

And what anomalies? Iran aren't doing experiments on 'heavy ice' up there are they? Ice is ice P.P. and acts accordingly. You plop it in water and it will always float with a bit up top and a lot down below, end of.

So even with a 1cm accuracy it's not good enough for you ?

I'm waiting to hear about the swathes of 4m+ old perennial that some folk assume is still around. I'm waiting to hear just how thick the 3rd year ice is making these days . I'm waiting to hear how this compares to the single year ice.

All of a sudden I find skeptics are posting the old images of sub's at the pole.........it's as if they have a need to show 'thin ice' in ages past.......strange that eh?so that must mean we can now use sub data without it being 'to sparse' in nature. Some of the ice thickness's logged by them must surely be represented in the Arctic today or is it a different Arctic today?

[The PIT]

Well the melt has started and we're at 2003 levels but above this time last year. http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Now that we've got a new measuring system you cannot compare new measurements with old. Also we don't know what the old thickness levels were really either. However warmists won't mind mixing up the data if it suits or moving the goalposts again.

A cm of of accuracy can we use this for gps????

[stewfox]

And what anomalies? Iran aren't doing experiments on 'heavy ice' up there are they? Ice is ice P.P. and acts accordingly. You plop it in water and it will always float with a bit up top and a lot down below, end of.

I have to go with GW here. Surely anything that improves our understanding of the Ice up there is good.

Obviously the ice won't be 'uniform' underneath but the laws of physics surely apply?.

They won't be 'hidden' ice down there, the depth of the ice wont be uniform but surely the volume measurements should be fairly accurate.

Unless Iran are up to go no good. .

Edited April 13, 2010 by stewfox

[Gray-Wolf]

I bet you can't say that next Tues Pit!!!

The amount of the 'anomalous AO' ice in rapid melt has even surprised me!! On top of that you have all the Arctic areas, that didn't do so well this winter, in melt (you can easily spot the rounded floes of older ice set into a mush of single year ice all down Fram). Check out Hudson Bay also as it appears to be ahead of times in it's melt sequence.

All in all I think you'll find quite a dip in 'extent' over the coming 5 weeks that'll probably have us back below all other years (as we were in Dec) and then the 'high Arctic' melt season will have begun and we can see how the 'important ice' endures.

The past 2 years gave us a glimpse of the issues since 07' with 'normal' arctic summer weather managing to give us extreme melts. If I'm correct in my take on the past 2 years then this year will be far worse (in terms of ice retention) as there is only a scant amount of ice ,thick enough to endure a 'normal arctic summer, left in the high Arctic.

This ice will receive some welcome additions from the likes of;

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100412121014.htm

as the ice sheets on the islands melt out and their glaciers calve into the Archipelago. I'm sure Greenland's Peterman glacier also has a block of ice 'the size of Manhattan Island' ready to break off it's calving front.

Of course once the islands are bereft of their ice sheets these additions will cease.

[stewfox]

Well the melt has started and we're at 2003 levels but above this time last year. http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

Now that we've got a new measuring system you cannot compare new measurements with old. Also we don't know what the old thickness levels were really either. However warmists won't mind mixing up the data if it suits or moving the goalposts again.

A cm of of accuracy can we use this for gps????

Whats all this talk of comparing with the old ?

If the Artic is ice free in the summer in the next 20 years, wont be much need for it.