Arctic Ice 2009/2010

[Gray-Wolf]

Though a tad off topic (unless we are looking at telecom.s from the south on Arctic ice formation) NOAA's winter forcast seems at odds with that J

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20091015_winteroutlook.html

allowing Nino' to drive the show?

[oldsnowywizard]

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL039810.shtml

Interesting that second article (albeit a brief overview) i think we saw some potent storms early sep through to Nov in 2006.... must admit im not entirely sure if strong lows was a feature of previous years when there was more ice around..?

ceratinly looks like 2 potent storms kicking off later this week. I would thought/hope that additional snowfall from these storms would help add to ice thickness and of course cool the oceans further... fringes of course would be smashed up a little so perhaps chuckchi might open up a little more?

Edited November 9, 2009 by oldsnowywizard

[Gray-Wolf]

2 storms? With such a thin pack you would expect the disruption to be more than at the fringes though.Maybe we'll get increased thickness from smashed plates riding up on top of each other?

[oldsnowywizard]

yep maybe a little bit of everything.. although ice still expected to increase in thickness and extent...

ice conditions being reported as similar to last year by NOAA..

[songster]

If you look at 06' you'll see what a disrupted 'early' season can mean to final figures.

I asked a few pages back whether anyone had any hard data on what went wrong in late '06 and why there was such an abrupt stall in the re-freeze. The bigger concern is next summer. Did the stalled re-freeze in '06 precondition the ice pack for the record '07 losses? If so, what happens next year, with a stalled re-freeze this year and even less perennial to hold the fort?

Edited November 9, 2009 by songster

[Gray-Wolf]

I asked a few pages back whether anyone had any hard data on what went wrong in late '06 and why there was such an abrupt stall in the re-freeze. The bigger concern is next summer. Did the stalled re-freeze in '06 precondition the ice pack for the record '07 losses? If so, what happens next year, with a stalled re-freeze this year and even less perennial to hold the fort?

Hi songster!

I still would not have a definitive answer to that question but since the turn of the century the pack has obviously entered it's final phase.

This is not purely a 'summer thing' and my posts (over the years) highlighting mid-winter/late winter fragmentation events within the Arctic Basin (before the famous Canadian Coastguard call of a couple of years back with the giant leader that opened up!)

For those of us willing to entertain the evidence of dramatic ice thinning then the notion that vast stretches of the pack can loose integrity (under the right conditions) and then facilitate overriding /compaction events which give the appearance of 'ice extent reductions' is not an alien one.

The icebreaker mission from sept. that went in search of (Canadian ice service mapped) 'old perennial' makes me wonder whether we can now have 'shale like' blocks of ice where multiple sections override and override again giving the impression of the old massive ,solid, glacial ice , but which in fact is now a fissile collaboration of multiple, single year slabs (with their characteristics ,come melt season) and not those of aged ice (giving rise to the 'rotten ice' the breaker encountered).

If we are indeed in a time of extra dynamic ice, and have a 'new' extra dynamic storm type prowling the arctic (courtesy of the Arctic Amplification), then we may well be within a different season type in the Arctic and should start to expect (and measure) ice behaviors that appear markedly different from those of our early satellite re-con. period?

[oldsnowywizard]

looking at the wetter archives there is nothing to suggest anythign out of the ordinary in terms of 500 or 850hpa..over the basin area which suggested to me that it could have been something around the fringes. the following image shows perhaps what the cause of the freeze up slow up was about...

if you compare the 2 years, (i also checked against 2007 and 2005) you can clearly see that in late Nov 2006 the Hudson hasnt begun to start freezing up... right up to the archipelago. I wont show it on here but also looking at the Barents on a few dates in Nov 2006 i can see that this area also visualy shows some kind of ice loss as you go through Nov... It also seems to be that Baffin ice hasnt built quite as much in Nov 2006 in comparision to other years...These i stongly believe are the cause of the IJIS 2006 slow up for early to late Nov.

thoughts..?

[Iceberg]

Hudson should be starting it's ice over in the next two weeks, an early start and ice extent will shoot up, a late start and it will struggle to maintain a strong increase.

Still very low ice levels though.

I concur the freeze up seems to be slow, if this is the whole cause then we can expect a surge in ice back to expected levels when it does freeze up as freeze it will do.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8357537.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8272357.stm

But it's OK because they're only making it all up to secure further funding, we can all relax............

[MR EXTREMES]

http://news.bbc.co.u...ech/8357537.stm

http://news.bbc.co.u...ech/8272357.stm

But it's OK because they're only making it all up to secure further funding, we can all relax............

thats about right no real freeze going on around the arctic or atleast slowing so the story make sense really cant argue with 88 glacers melting,

perhapes tipping point is almost apon us,

and thats without are atmosphere about to absorb some extra heat by nino.

[Gray-Wolf]

Are we still not concerned about ice build this autumn?

Is the recent stall/loss due to the storms that we were promised and ,if so, does this illustrate both the way storms are tracking further north with greater intensity and the fragility of the new era pack to such things?.

We're gonna end up with a real slush puppie of a pack if this continues!

[stewfox]

Are we still not concerned about ice build this autumn?

Is the recent stall/loss due to the storms that we were promised and ,if so, does this illustrate both the way storms are tracking further north with greater intensity and the fragility of the new era pack to such things?.

We're gonna end up with a real slush puppie of a pack if this continues!

To be fair 2009 ice rebuild reminds of a drunk who is stagging and cannot find his way home.

If he doesnt keep up with the 'pack' he may get even more lost.

Lets keep an eye on the old fella, more concerned in 3/4 weeks time if he is still getting lost or has drifted further from the pack (GW put your gun away for now)

[J10]

IJIS does indeed show today's figures below 2007 which is disappointing. Will it stay there or is it a blip, we are still around 300-400k around short term averages. Over future weeks at this time of year 2006 ice growth stalls, so we would hope expect to see 2009 figures going above 2006 significantly by the 20th November.

No signs of this yet. as ice growth continues to stall. At least for today very cold winds seem set to push into troublesome areas east of Svalbard, but southerly winds are set to push in from way south from around Monday, so no comfort there.

[Gray-Wolf]

No signs of this yet. as ice growth continues to stall. At least for today very cold winds seem set to push into troublesome areas east of Svalbard, but southerly winds are set to push in from way south from around Monday, so no comfort there.

Now if the ice were to go below 06' for the next 8 weeks I would be really concerned

I'm still firmly of the opinion that the poor ice extent thus far is a hangover from the spreading of the pack through late July and Aug.

The 'new' situation on the Siberian side (over the past few years) must also be taken into account as (I think) this is a shallow shelf sea area and is fed by rivers off the mainland so a combination of the Arctic Amplification and input of warm river waters must delay initial ice formation there.

The Fact Svalbard no longer stops the Arctic current from working ice down from the central Arctic, down past East Greenland, is also a concern.

In the past the log jam of perennial to the north of Svalbard effectively closed this avenue (and slowed ice loss over summer).If this is now set to be single year ice then storms over the area north of Sweden/Finland could easily smash up the ice here leading to a continued ice 'flush out' over the winter months.

Maps show the majority of the remaining perennial stacked up behind Svalbard like some orderly queue awaiting exit visa's from the Arctic circle.....

[laserguy]

Seems to be on the mend again

http://ocean.dmi.dk/...icecover.uk.php

But note the statement in red below the chart.... sorry if it's been mentioned before - been going on for a while and the problem is ongoing,it seems.

[oldsnowywizard]

i think we might actually have a problem with hudson freezing over late this year, the reason being that again the cold seems to be concentrating itself over siberia.. its set to get very cold here, with widespread -30 to -40.. it might help kick start Kara sea ice formation.. Chuckchi is set to get iced over in 5 days time according NOAA. agree with GW that we need to see ice extent grow to svalbard so it can help to slow down the flush of ice.

[J10]

Now if the ice were to go below 06' for the next 8 weeks I would be really concerned

Considering what happened in 2006, over the next couple of weeks I would agree with you, note no predictions.

Going back to the weekly summary

On the IJIS figures Arctic Ice now stands (Provisionally) at 8,788,594, the lowest in the IJIS series and on the combined figures for all 31 years. BAD NEWS

The average growth over the past week has fallen to around 68,000 per day, which is slightly below recent ice growth of 73,000 (2002-2008) and slightly above long term ice growth of 60,000 sqkm per day (1979-2007)

We are now 1,057,206 below the 1979-2007 average figures, and 403.203 below 2003-2008 figures.

So after recent improvements ice growth has stalled somewhat, with ice growth being a problem especially around the Barents Sea and the Chuckchi Seas. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

On the IJIS figures Arctic Ice now stands (Provisionally) at 9,103,594, the lowest in the IJIS series and on the combined figures for all 31 years, which remains bad news.

The average growth over the past week has fallen to around 45,000 per day, which is slightly below recent ice growth of 48,000 (2002-2008) and a bit more below longer term ice growth of 64,000 sqkm per day (1979-2007)

We are now 1,191,119 below the 1979-2007 average figures, and 429,297 below 2003-2008 figures.

Up until yesterday, this was a very bad week for ice growth, with a real stall in growth, however yesterday growth did show decent growth.

Ice growth remains a problem especially around the Barents Sea and the Chuckchi Seas. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/ , and Tropical Maritime airflow from the mid Atlantic to high latitudes north of Norway for the next few days hardly helps ice growth either.

Seems to be on the mend again

http://ocean.dmi.dk/...icecover.uk.php

But note the statement in red below the chart.... sorry if it's been mentioned before - been going on for a while and the problem is ongoing,it seems.

I was aware of this issue however we have got to assume the figures are correct, until shown otherwise.

[Skiwi]

Very pleasing to see a large increase in ice extent of approx 150,000km over the last day. Hopefully ice extent will continue to increase quickly over the next week bringing us back towards the short term averages

[Gray-Wolf]

Yup! nice to see a surge over the past day or so. I think we're now tied for lowest ice levels for the time of year and not the rank lowest!

[oldsnowywizard]

nice to see you come on board GW a positive thing... (mind you they couldnt have been much worse)

i still have a concern over the hudson as there is just no significant cold pooling over this area for the next week or so. on the plus side though we should see Kara freeze up a bit faster as very cold temps creep over to that direction. chuckchi also should freeze over soon..

[Skiwi]

nice to see you come on board GW a positive thing... (mind you they couldnt have been much worse)

i still have a concern over the hudson as there is just no significant cold pooling over this area for the next week or so. on the plus side though we should see Kara freeze up a bit faster as very cold temps creep over to that direction. chuckchi also should freeze over soon..

I don't see where your coming from. Yes with any luck things will improve over the next few weeks but surely you cannot argue that ice extent as it stands today is anything but dire. To do so would be very naive remembering we currently have the LOWEST ice extent EVER for this time of year. It is hard to find any positives in that

Edited November 16, 2009 by Skiwi

[oldsnowywizard]

I don't see where your coming from. Yes with any luck things will improve over the next few weeks but surely you cannot argue that ice extent as it stands today is anything but dire. To do so would be very naive remembering we currently have the LOWEST ice extent EVER for this time of year. It is hard to find any positives in that

wat ho perhaps a fine example of mis understadning, mis reading or totally missing the point... READ the post again. Where oh where do i state that ice conditions are fantastic?

[stewfox]

To do so would be very naive remembering we currently have the LOWEST ice extent EVER for this time of year. It is hard to find any positives in that

I think you mean the lowest since 2007 it is already above 2006 ??.

When you say the lowest ice extent EVER I guess your referring to the last 30yrs ??

You should write for the Daily Mail

I can see it now Artic ice LOWEST EVER EXTENT CUTE POLAR BEARS ON THEIR LAST LEGS

The Artic has of course been free of ice for millions and millions of years in the past

I wonder why people dont take global warming sorry climate change seriously ??

[Skiwi]

I think you mean the lowest since 2007 it is already above 2006 ??.

When you say the lowest ice extent EVER I guess your referring to the last 30yrs ??

You should write for the Daily Mail

I can see it now Artic ice LOWEST EVER EXTENT CUTE POLAR BEARS ON THEIR LAST LEGS

The Artic has of course been free of ice for millions and millions of years in the past

I wonder why people dont take global warming sorry climate change seriously ??

When i wrote my post the ice extent was infact the lowest on record(Sorry for not stating 'since records began' i thought that was obvious).

It is sad that you feel the need to take a serious comment about the state of the artic ice extent and take the mickey out of it. You are more than entitled to disagree but taking cracks at people isn't beneficial

On a different note, it is great to see strong increases in the ice extent continue for the last few days. A few more days of strong gains and we will be approaching the short term averages

Edited November 17, 2009 by Skiwi

[stewfox]

When i wrote my post the ice extent was infact the lowest on record(Sorry for not stating 'since records began' i thought that was obvious).

It is sad that you feel the need to take a serious comment about the state of the artic ice extent and take the mickey out of it. You are more than entitled to disagree but taking cracks at people isn't beneficial

On a different note, it is great to see strong increases in the ice extent continue for the last few days. A few more days of strong gains and we will be approaching the short term averages

I apologize I wasn't taking the Mickey I was making comment on your spin (I apologize to any polar bears who were offended as well).

The problem with alarmist reporting (I'm talking generally here) is when it's replicated through the media it tends after a while to switch the people off who it was aimed for.

So when they don't see the arctic free of ice by summer of 2012 they think all is well.

People can cry wolf only so many times and of course this could mean its too late if/when the wolf comes.

Anyway back to 'spin'

I have NEVER seen the arctic ice RECOVERY have such a steep upward curve this century? Amazing recovery. (See redline)

http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

Edited November 17, 2009 by stewfox