Arctic Ice 2009/2010

[Gray-Wolf]

Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system

Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate systemXiangdong Zhang

International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA

Asgeir Sorteberg

Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

Jing Zhang

Arctic Region Supercomputing Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA

Rüdiger Gerdes

Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany

Josefino C. Comiso

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA

Arctic climate system change has accelerated tremendously since the beginning of this century, and a strikingly extreme sea-ice loss occurred in summer 2007. However, the greenhouse-gas-emissions forcing has only increased gradually and the driving role in Arctic climate change of the positively-polarized Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO) trend has substantially weakened. Although various contributing factors have been examined, the fundamental physical process, which orchestrates these contributors to drive the acceleration and the latest extreme event, remains unknown. We report on drastic, systematic spatial changes in atmospheric circulations, showing a sudden jump from the conventional tri-polar AO/NAO to an unprecedented dipolar leading pattern, following accelerated northeastward shifts of the AO/NAO centers of action. These shifts provide an accelerating impetus for the recent rapid Arctic climate system changes, perhaps shedding light on recent arguments about a tipping point of global-warming-forced climate change in the Arctic. The radical spatial shift is a precursor to the observed extreme change event, demonstrating skilful information for future prediction.

========================================================================================

Just a reminder of this for those still with questions about the slow start to the re-freeze.

If we are entering a world of direct N/S exchanges instead of SW/NE then we get more heat up there more rapidly (and cold plunges with more bite!)

Edited December 14, 2009 by Gray-Wolf

[VillagePlank]

Arctic climate system change has accelerated tremendously since the beginning of this century ....

========================================================================================

Just a reminder of this for those still with questions about the slow start to the re-freeze.

One is climate, one is weather. Guess which is which?

[Gray-Wolf]

Separate with no interface/fuzz zone?

[VillagePlank]

Separate with no interface/fuzz zone?

Well, I've got to be honest here: a centuries worth of evidence against a few weeks of refreeze data pretty much delineates itself, don't you think? Just pointing out the 'mixed metaphor' and the error of drawing conclusions between two different 'things'

Next, I'll have to claim that the coming next two weeks in the UK is evidence of global cooling. At least I'll have a polar bear coat to keep warm in, and penguin slippers to keep the chill at bay.

[stewfox]

Recent

blah blah bah etc

Cutting and pasting old floored data is rather redundant

From 2050 data

Warmest global year 1998

Warm UK summer 2003

Min ice extent 2007

[osmposm]

What I'm wondering is what the probability currently is of any interesting and informative science-based discussions, devoid of I'm-cleverer-than-you sarcastic tit-for-tats, re-appearing here or in the general discussion thread before 2010?

I'm not easily bored...but boy, am I bored. A plague on both - all - your juvenile houses.

Edited December 15, 2009 by osmposm

[Roger J Smith]

Well I'll give it a try, Osmposm ...

Hudson Bay is freezing over very quickly due to the extreme cold air masses being circulated over the region from the west and northwest. Temperatures have fallen to -25 or lower over the Bay in the last week, so it's freezing almost instantly especially near the western shores. The Greenland blocking high may result in a slower freeze-up in the Hudson Strait region which is getting a milder return flow from the southeast.

[Gray-Wolf]

So that folk are clear about what I think I am seeing (and what I believe the scientists on the ground are now fretting over) I'll give you a brief time line.

Since the turn of this century the Arctic sea ice has been in a state of collapse that is far worse than the dire 'stats' illustrate. 07' gave us a glimpse of how bad things really are but 07' was not responsible for our position, it is just a point in the 'end game' of arctic ice as we knew it.

07' allowed us to see the skeletal remains of the perennial that was left in the high arctic but ,as ever ,it was not the full picture.

It is Dr Barbers trip (or his reports of it) that has driven this 'rethink' by me (and many of the scientists who work on the issues) and I feel sure we will hear more about his findings as the months roll by and we find a new way of interpreting the corrupted data we have unquestioningly relied upon.

If we now know that we cannot trust some of the data (regarding 'old perennial') we can view the last 9 years in a different way. Other data over that period has been showing us how dire things were but without this final piece we have gained some hope in a possible recovery of the pack. I fear that this is no longer the case.

Both Dr Barbers discoveries of the 'absent' old perennial ,and his witnessing of just how huge expanses of ice can collapse in a mater of minutes, should have us all asking as to how much of the central pack of ice is 'real' and how much is really the smashed remains of what was once there.

Key to all of this is this 'spreading out' of collapsed perennial.

In 07', as I've said ,we saw the bones of what was left as the 'perfect storm allowed us to glimpse what was there after the thin stuff melted out.Sadly we must now figure how much of that picture was blighted by slumped ice. If we know that the old perennial used to gain depths over over 8m and that ICESat/Grace gave us a picture of the ice being only 2m thick then we can see the potential for slumped ice covering 4 times the area it used to occupy (without any gaps) If we think of how ice is then we must have at least a few gaps and this would spread out the 'extent' measured even further. So how much of that central area in 07' was rotten ice and how much was the good old stuff?

If the final 2 months of recent ice melt has been 'bolstered ' by the continued collapse of the old perennial what should our min figures have been?

Mr Gore, after a natter on Sunday with the scientists who have been compiling the report, moved back to the catastrophic ice loss period of an ice free arctic summer by 5 to 7 years hence.

The past two years of modest increase in min figure had had the scientists pull back from this imminent figure to 2030 or there abouts. If they now know that there is little or no perennial to form a central summer core of sea ice then the prospects of another 'warm summer' means that all the thin ice will once again go.This time there is little ,or no, ice slumping to push up that min figure. This time we will see the true extent of the damage to the pack.

Maybe it was foolish to think that the perennial ice would melt 'in situ' (esp. when all we see are cliffs of glacial ice crashing into fjords in spectacular fashion), maybe we should have always expected a slush puppy of a pack for a few years as the final collapse? Maybe we should have realised that the smashed ice would 'reflect' the same wavelength as a solid big mountain of the stuff (it being the same ice) but we didn't.

I think the pressure on the science teams .from the deniers camp, were so great that they have to be extremely conservative in their statements (I mean look at the hullabaloo at ice max/min the past 2 years...not this last year as things were a tad different weren't they?).

All in all the next 'warm' arctic year (remember that 2010 is predicted to be the hottest global year ever recorded due to our current 'Nino) will (IMHO) show us all a very frightening picture of where we actually are in terms of ice extent/content in the Arctic.

I banged on about ice 'volume' for years now.I now feel I was right to do so.

None of this is pleasant.I wish it were different.

[jethro]

I'm really not trying to be funny here and please don't interpret this as me not giving a toss, but I've got to ask - does it really matter? Other than the fact that it would be a change and we'd all lament the loss, would an ice free Arctic in the summer have any dire consequences? It would still re-freeze every winter, wouldn't it?

What would happen if we do get an ice free Arctic during the summer months? What knock on effects, if any, would there be?

[stewfox]

Well I'll give it a try, Osmposm ...

Yes please do old wise one Osmposm

One small point

At present in the Artic its winter and its very dark up there and very cold.

The real interest will be Spring/Summer and next September.

If you have some 'data' then please post other wise please let the ideal banter continue unhindered.

I'm really not trying to be funny here and please don't interpret this as me not giving a toss, but I've got to ask - does it really matter? Other than the fact that it would be a change and we'd all lament the loss, would an ice free Arctic in the summer have any dire consequences? It would still re-freeze every winter, wouldn't it?

What would happen if we do get an ice free Arctic during the summer months? What knock on effects, if any, would there be?

I raised this point a year ago

I mean it wont effect sea level , a big boost to Tourism which if carefully managed could help local communties

An 'Alien' reading this thread 'wouldnt get it'

[MR EXTREMES]

yeah but what about the polar bears.

and im being serious.

im also being serious when i say the arctic has had less ice before,

and theres no evidence to prove that a continuation of ice growth in future years.

as also it could melt i think its a global cycle but we will see,

there also has been alot of talk of next year will be the warmist ever bla bla bit like our 100f a couple of years ago and our bbq summer.

how about the extreme cold being experienced in the canadian arctic along with most of america,

also the low solar activity which was forecast by nasa to be extreme this cycle turns out to be very low indeed.

oh yes lets not forget the ipcc forecasts which have been totally wrong.

so what does this have to do with ice melt its all based around the same group of people that push the rubbish on us.

merry christmas.

Edited December 15, 2009 by badboy657

[Roger J Smith]

Once a paradigm like a "broken environment" sets in, there is very little that can repair it, because the environment tends to be a chaotic system in any case. All I can say is that if the ice part of the system is broken, the cold air part of the system was fixed a couple of years ago. We can't take it any colder over here, if you want it colder, have some of ours.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'll post my comment over on the Arctic thread and leave this for the current ice situation .

Suffice to say though dark and cold the water is still fluid below the ice and that water isn't allowing ice depth of more than 2m to form these days (according to NASA).

EDIT: Oh!, Jethro.

"Chestnuts roasting on an open fire,

Jack frost nipping at your nose....."

it'll be swell once the dust settles (and by 'settles' I ,mean washed out off every surface 4 or 5 times.......)

(Dives for cover....)

Edited December 15, 2009 by Gray-Wolf

[osmposm]

....Osmposm

One small point

At present in the Artic its winter and its very dark up there and very cold.

The real interest will be Spring/Summer and next September.

If you have some 'data' then please post other wise please let the ideal banter continue unhindered....

Um, blah, blah, blah etc (I think that's how you like to put it)

I'm all for banter, but it had been getting (IMHO) less than ideal - distinctly nasty at times, and very repetitive - both here and in the general climate change thread. It also seemed at times, for post after post, like a private conversation, only comprehensible to certain initiates. I feared - fear - that others might be put off from contributing.

That's all. I'll go back in my box now.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm all for your steadying hand Os, you have always been polite and concise when you've posted down here (and not bereft of wit) and I'm sorry if you feel excluded by some of the conversations.

Arctic sea ice ,and it's current plight, should have everyones attention. I believe it is not a repeat of any 'normal cycle' and is the most damning indication of the scale of change we have forced on our world.

When we were both young and annoying teachers we had a central mini continent of permanent ,durable, perennial ice in the high Arctic.I fear we will see very soon (in terms of a persons lifetime) just how little of that we now have left.

With El Nino set to last the northern winter and already as strong as 02/3 and 97/8 at this stage of it's development it's impacts on the next two seasons seems assured.We could have done with a continuation of the past few years of PDO/AO influence (IMHO).

Having now watched 'The Age of Stupid' I'm a little fragile at present and struggle to understand why so many folk cannot see the things that I ,and others, do.

Edited December 16, 2009 by Gray-Wolf

[osmposm]

I'm all for your steadying hand Os, you have always been polite and concise when you've posted down here (and not bereft of wit) and I'm sorry if you feel excluded by some of the conversations.....

You're very kind, but not entirely accurate, G-W. I am very seldom concise when posting about anything that matters to me, and I have in the past here not always been at all polite. In fact those encompass the reasons for my ceasing to post anything of substance in the Climate Change forum recently. I tend to write carefully and at length, and it was becoming too upsetting - leading to pointless anger and frequent impoliteness - to spend hours, days even on carefully-constructed and argued posts and have them dismissed with half a dozen words of 'wit' or abuse. The truth is, I'm getting old, and losing the stomach (and the time) for argument. I'm also (slowly) getting wise enough to realise how little I really know on the subject.

But I do read and absorb what others write here; and I would only ask that those of you who know and understand far more than me - and do, admirably take the time and trouble to post here - reflect, briefly, before you click that 'Add Reply' button. What would I sound like to an audience of objective outsiders - or even one of half-involved, half-informed semi-insiders (which most of us are)? Is that really interesting, is that really funny, does that actually add anything? Or am I just having a private slanging match, and - ultimately - making myself look like a bit of prat?

Edited December 16, 2009 by osmposm

[Admiral_Bobski]

You're very kind, but not entirely accurate, G-W. I am very seldom concise when posting about anything that matters to me, and I have in the past here not always been at all polite.

<snip>

But you're almost always grammatically accurate, os - and that counts for a lot with sad, pedantic people like myself!

:lol:

CB

[Gray-Wolf]

After watching "The Age of Stupid" last night Os I have to have a good long think on what you have just said.

I feel like Mr. P's character in the making and though (in the film) the info is real and pertinent (I feel) it left me sick to the stomach.

Too much.

I now fear that this is where I leave folk when I try and be understood in my concerns for our future. To hear a N.I.M.B.Y. proudly proclaim "having defeated a wind farm application on my other estate in Scotland......" Hew!

[VillagePlank]

What I'm wondering is what the probability currently is of any interesting and informative science-based discussions, devoid of I'm-cleverer-than-you sarcastic tit-for-tats, re-appearing here or in the general discussion thread before 2010?

I'm not easily bored...but boy, am I bored. A plague on both - all - your juvenile houses.

If I were you then, I'd buy a text-book.

This is (more or less) open. That means, of course, that anyone can contribute whatever it is that they feel they want to within quite loose boundaries. In my view, to criticise such a fora is rather like going to a pub, and expecting people not to use swear-words when the evening comes to a close - when inebriation comes into effect. You know it's going happen ...

I don't really understand what a 'juvenile-house' is, but, personally speaking, I wouldn't wish for disease on anybody elses kids. Perhaps you didn't quite mean that - but then posting stuff, using words, is always so tricky, isn't it? And what's more - you want a plague because you are bored?

(This is the edited version. The original started with something along the lines: I wish people would stop posting in red)

I shall enforce a short holiday period from the climate area, for myself, I think. Perhaps I am taking it all too personally.

Edited December 16, 2009 by VillagePlank

[Gray-Wolf]

If I were you then, I'd buy a text-book.

This is (more or less) open. That means, of course, that anyone can contribute whatever it is that they feel they want to within quite loose boundaries. In my view, to criticise such a fora is rather like going to a pub, and expecting people not to use swear-words when the evening comes to a close - when inebriation comes into effect. You know it's going happen ...

I don't really understand what a 'juvenile-house' is, but, personally speaking, I wouldn't wish for disease on anybody else's kids. Perhaps you didn't quite mean that - but then posting stuff, using words, is always so tricky, isn't it? And what's more - you want a plague because you are bored?

(This is the edited version. The original started with something along the lines: I wish people would stop posting in red)

I shall enforce a short holiday period from the climate area, for myself, I think. Perhaps I am taking it all too personally.

I suspect you know but 'case you don't.The Os I know is a 'Gentle'-man and it is 'our' (of us) juvenile behaviours and houses the plague is invited to visit.

Os is careful in his choice of words but I'm sure if you wish to 'take ' offence then you will, I'm sure none was intended (and this is said in my best 'world weary' way and is not intended as any kind of offence/insult /slight).

That said I too weary of all of this. I know it won't go away and I know I cannot ignore a bit of it but the same old tired faces and worn sentiments day in day out?

No wonder our number (of active posters) have dwindled. I , for one, have killed my Goose that brought me my wealth of human contact.

Maybe time to let the new blood in and merely lurk and post without ever pressing that 'Add Reply' button? (I can hear the cheers from many quarters)

It is not as if you don't know exactly what I'd post now is it?

We'll see how strong my resolve is eh? But, if that sea ice cam is bobbing around the pole come late July 10' it may waver!

[Admiral_Bobski]

Maybe what we all need is our own Netweather Lounge-like banter thread where we can all chat about aimless nonsense (non-climate-related) and get to know each other a little bit. Some of us have been arguing with each other for years and still don't know other people on her (and when I say "know" I don't mean biblically ).

Frankly I think we're kind of in limbo here - we don't know what temperatures are going to do at the moment. If they keep going up and up and up it might go some way towards favouring AGW (though that could also favour the LI, depending on how long temps keep going up!).

If temps fall precipitously then it would means omething else.

If sea ice grows back it would mean one thing, if sea ice disappears it could mean another - though the loss of arctic sea ice would only prove warming, not necessarily man-made warming.

Basically it's all very complicated, and with a distinct lack of new and exciting science coming out at the moment I don't think we have a great deal to talk about.

Perhaps that's why the conversation is so much like an endless re-run of one day's play at Wimbledon at the moment.

So does anyone want to start a new thread to talk about other stuff (and would that be okay with the lovely mods?).

CB

EDIT - in defense of this idea, os, Pete and I (along with several others) have been chatting in the "Grammarians' Corner" thread in the Lounge and we've been having a really good time (I think - I have, at any rate!). And, after all, 'tis the season to be jolly...

Edited December 16, 2009 by Captain_Bobski

[jethro]

No objections from me; a friendly, chatty thread would be a grand addition.

[Chris Knight]

No objections from me; a friendly, chatty thread would be a grand addition.

I like Ice. It is a distraction from the soft, warm fluffy things that we often think of as comfortable. It is hard enough to tear through reinforced steel hulls of ocean-bound passenger liners and to remodel river valleys into dramatic fjords and create emphasised vertiginal faces on mountain peaks, with otherwise impossibly high waterfalls. Good old Slartibartfast, eh?

Strong drinks that otherwise would have you red-faced and coughing on the first sip become smooth and friendly under its influence.

My 3-y-old Siberian Husky, Tikaani (that's his picture up on the left) loves ice and snow, and this morning was doing his own version of "Snow Angels" - sadly I didn't take my camera. He lies on his side, uses his legs to rotate his body in about a 270 degree arc and bites and swallows the snow as he goes round. Does not look much like an "Angel" when he gets up, but he is only three. At least the snow does not stick to him. On the other hand, he loves children, and because there were many who had the day off today, he didn't go hungry today - no, seriously, he only ate enough to satisfy his appetite, and no children. They were lining up to make him "sit", "give me a paw", "give me your other paw" - I never taught him any of these things - he was a rescue.

Anyway, I have to go. The fridge is empty and the off-licence beckons. Nice to have the opportunity to chat tho!

[masheeuk]

I think this has to be the best week of the winter so far. Some really good gains. To me it now looks like 12.5M could be possible for Jan 1

[J10]

On the (Provisional) IJIS figures Arctic Ice now stands at 11,126,719, we have moved back below 2005,2006 and 2007 in a disappointing week for sea ice growth and are now 7th in the series of 7 in the IJIS series and 31st out of 31st on the combined figures for all 31 years.

The average growth over the past week has fallen to around 27,000 per day, which is well below recent ice growth at 77,000 (2002-2008) and well below longer term ice growth of 62,000 sqkm per day (1979-2007)

We are now 985,431 below the 1979-2007 average figures, and 322,604 below 2003-2008 figures.

We will see next week whether this bad week is a blip or a trend.

A much better this week in relation to Sea Ice, which has seen last weeks losses being fully recovered. On the (Provisional) IJIS figures Arctic Ice now stands at 11,826,563, we have moved back above 2005,2006 and 2007 and 2008 and are now 3rd in the series of 7 in the IJIS series and 27th out of 31st on the combined figures for all 31 years.

The average growth over the past week has risen to around 100,000 per day, which is well above recent ice growth at 52,000 (2002-2008) and (1979-2007).

We are now 654,651 below the 1979-2007 average figures, and 3,464 above 2003-2008 figures.

This is the last update for 2009, the next one will be issued in the first few days in 2010.

Arctic Ice Autumn 2009.xls