Tropical Storm Grace

[weatherobsuk]

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Valentina reporting 14-30mph winds

Looks like Grace isnt giving up the fight just yet and making the most of the avaliable Tropical moisture around her, combined with the Cooler air to her North its creating quite convective bursts and I had a hunch earlier last night that Grace would be lasting some 6 hours over the forecasted period, however I wasnt intending to see her maintain any Tropical Characteristic Shapes she had left.

[johnholmes]

Just wondered if John Holmes could give his take on the latest sat pics, does look like an eye of some sort has reformed. John do you think Grace is likly to be reforming to any degree, could she depeen now or do you think will just totally disipate?

as per my post above pyro

it is a pretty unknown quantity to be honest, that is for a TS to be still showing TS characteristics almost into the UK, which is why I posted above about the models not perhaps having a definite handle on it.

I don't think its going to deepen a lot more as an open wave intensifying rainfall and aiding the slowing of the cold front movement.

Edited October 6, 2009 by johnholmes

[BornFromTheVoid]

It's certiantly still growing in size. No reports yet as it's just a little too far away.

High res Quickscat this morning still had quite a few 40-45Kt barbs in the SW quad, which is where the strongest winds will be.

This is only a rough estimate but probably hitting Southern Ireland around 2.30-3.00pmish. Passing over Cork at 17-18.00, speed is very difficult to judge though as she's riding the wave.

She is also a very small creature so nowcasting will be critical in where gets what.

Thanks for that. It's been raining very heavy here the last few hours, so any extra precip this adds could make things interesting.

Will there be any slight storm surge associated with this? I'm guessing nothing much but it will be here around high tide which is ~19:30 this evening.

[pyrotech]

Closest station to the storm reports the following

Station 62081

UK Met Office

Location: 51.000N 13.301W

Conditions as of:

Tue, 6 Oct 2009 10:00:00 UTC

Winds: at 26.0 kt

Significant Wave Height: 10.2 ft

Atmospheric Pressure: 29.57 in and rising rapidly

Air Temperature: 55.9 F

Dew Point: 52.3 F

Water Temperature: 59.2 F

View Details - View History

Thats the highest winds i have noticed today from that station but i think grace is probably slightly North East to that station now

[johnholmes]

my current view on the low and its probable movement, see below

[Coast]

Closest station to the storm reports the following

Station 62081

and here's the windmap from that buoy/station:

[londonsnow]

i notice on the meto 1200hrs satellite grace still has an eye as it heads towards county cork. i googled grace, but the british and irish media don't appear to have picked up on her. odd, because whilst she'll probably just produce some heavy rain and windy conditions, its the satellite imagery which makes the story. great picture opportunity they're missing there

[johnholmes]

try this link-watch the setting and rising sun (!) and how Grace has moved and is moving

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/1.5941764

and then this one

http://wind.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/meteosat.cgi?speed=16&count=48&intervall=30&refresh=Off&playmode=Endlos_mit_R%FCcklauf

Edited October 6, 2009 by johnholmes

[Coast]

Interesting times and worth saving some of those loops for reflection in years to come. All this and we still have tomorrows uncertainties and fall out yet!!

Time to get the wellies out :unsure:

[The PIT]

Seems to be getting more intense again doesn't it. Perhaps it's decided to eat the cold front instead of the cold front eating it. :unsure:

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Well this is nice to return to! Landed from honeymoon yesterday and managed to skip any TS/Hurricanes in Antigua and I return to one of my doorstep!! How totally bizarre but amazing!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks as though it's starting to take a more easterly track, might just skirt the South coast here.

[weatherobsuk]

I'd be looking at Marathon Gas Platform data in a couple of hours for any substantial data from Grace in terms of what this system will be doing, wether she would still be maintaining convection or slowly losing intensity. The station would also give some great data on wind readings and temperature/humidity data for years to come.

[Harry]

Those loops are incredible!

I have never seen such a tightly rotating feature so close to the UK - looking at it, it still resembles a tropical storm...

[weatherobsuk]

I have to stress though, the "eye" isnt associated with Tropical characteristics but is rather a result of the Coriolis effect, Dave W is also stressing this point on UKWW. This "eye" is in no way convectional and wont bring Tropical force-winds associated with it, its formed as a result of tightening of the system due to convectioning of the system from associated tropical air, but all tropical characteristics of Grace in terms of it being a Tropical Storm have diminished apart from its outer structure.

[Iceberg]

I think it will be bring tropical force winds, they just won't be from a pure tropical system, rather an ex tropical system with come tropical charecteristics.

[johnholmes]

I doubt there will be tropical storm force winds-perhaps 30-40 mph in isolated instances, as much from convective downdraughts as anything.

Track of the lo looks much as I suggested earlier this morning looking at the 12z data, little sign of any noticeable deepening either.

certainly some very hefty downpours are going to occur as the whole system slowly shifts ESE over the next few hours.

[Iceberg]

Here's the latest quikscat from lunchtime which is still showing some 40+Kt barbs. I think we will have to look at the obs reports.

[Iceberg]

Bouy etc data.

http://www.marine.ie/home/publicationsdata/data/IMOS/

[BrickFielder]

Looks like it is completing its transition to extra tropical now as cold air starts to become entrained in it. The moderately fastly circulating inner core suggests the inner column of warmer humid air (no it wont be warm core anymore) is still intact for the moment. Main risk I expect will be heavy rain rather than winds, with the highly wind sheared environment at the core perhaps posing an outside risk of weak tornado development befoe it disapates.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just south of the Cork coast now. Rotation still very much visible and some structure.

Rain has eased a little here in Cork too, might not last too long though!

[johnholmes]

quite suprb picc from Dundee this afternoon of the remains of Grace

[Iceberg]

Very good picture John, fantastic banding and features.

It seems to me, looking at the various loops that the system is staying further south than planned and travelling more East than NE. Could be more of a feature for south wales and the west country on it's current path.

It's also unfortunately dodging all the various bouys.

[cyclonic happiness]

It's really exciting to watch this, what do you think will happen to her?

She looks to be holding her own still, will she shear to bits as she crosses the Welsh mountains and with that cold front squashing her?

[johnholmes]

I would agree its track now looks further south than my thoughts first thing this morning, see below for my latest ideas.

Edited October 6, 2009 by johnholmes