Stratosphere Temperature Watch

[kold weather]

Just had a look at the AO data, I'm quite stunned how amazingly negative the AO has been this winter, I mean since the 1st of December just 3 days have come in slightly positive...every single day other then those three have been negative, with a BIG number being VERY negative indeed!

I can't imagine there are many winters that have had such extreme -ve AO, I'd imagine for the winter as a whole its got to be close to a record -ve AO, hardly surprising therefore this winter has had such weak mild attempts with the jet being forced generally well south due to that monster -ve AO.

[summer blizzard]

Just had a look at the AO data, I'm quite stunned how amazingly negative the AO has been this winter, I mean since the 1st of December just 3 days have come in slightly positive...every single day other then those three have been negative, with a BIG number being VERY negative indeed!

I can't imagine there are many winters that have had such extreme -ve AO, I'd imagine for the winter as a whole its got to be close to a record -ve AO, hardly surprising therefore this winter has had such weak mild attempts with the jet being forced generally well south due to that monster -ve AO.

We actually had the most negative December AO value on record, not too sure about February.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

But why not in English?

The first part of winter?

Attention competition

Make your words visual

People read them (and haikus).

I just wonder, why has the tropical stratosphere been so cold in the last 12 months?

solar min?

[summer blizzard]

Any update on the stratosphere, specificaly if there is any idea as to when the final warming is going to occur??

[chionomaniac]

Any update on the stratosphere, specificaly if there is any idea as to when the final warming is going to occur??

Hi SB,

There is no sign of a Final Warming just yet - my call would be for a FW to occur in mid April neither early nor late.

In fact, the stratospheric pattern is still intriguing as it has been all winter. The upper stratospheric vortex has regained strength since the MMW, however it is forecast to be still very displaced from the pole residing over Siberia. This does surprise me as I thought that the vortex was setting up for centre stage again. Here at the 10 hPa level the displacement is quite clear.

This could be because of the ozone distribution with the vortex setting up away from the highest concentrations.

So this displacement at the upper levels of the stratosphere is likely to dictate where the lower stratospheric vortex resides and then to some extent the tropospheric pattern. The 100hPa charts show the pattern emerging:

One has to think that a Scandi trough situation is favourite here, with the only question remaining is how strong will any blocking to the northwest be. Whatever occurs, a northerly airstream is the favoured option with the potential for it to be quite potent for this time of year.

c

[summer blizzard]

I have noticed in recent years the that we do see cooling before the stratosphre has its final warming, is that what has caused it to regain strength?

[chionomaniac]

Interesting article on the BBC today regarding how the lower solar activity affects the stratosphere, leading to the displaced jet stream and blocking patterns, perfectly illustrated by this winter.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8615789.stm

The latest stratospheric information suggests that we are still not in summer mode with the FW yet to occur.

Edited April 15, 2010 by chionomaniac

[MR EXTREMES]

Interesting article on the BBC today regarding how the lower solar activity affects the stratosphere, leading to the displaced jet stream and blocking patterns, perfectly illustrated by this winter.

http://news.bbc.co.u...ech/8615789.stm

The latest stratospheric information suggests that we are still not in summer mode with the FW yet to occur.

yep just posted this link in solar activity thread.

its very intresting its also something i feel has been showing its effects and with activty still low infact lower than jan this could be the reason why the climate is finding it hard to shift towards summer mode.

this also likely to continue what with volacanic activity and earth quakes that have shifted the earths wobble slightly,

its looking like intresting times.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Interesting article on the BBC today regarding how the lower solar activity affects the stratosphere, leading to the displaced jet stream and blocking patterns, perfectly illustrated by this winter.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8615789.stm

The latest stratospheric information suggests that we are still not in summer mode with the FW yet to occur.

At least it has been looked at with a decent finding. I've been pushing for sometime that the jetstream is on a shift south and that the solar driven perturbation cycle [la nina dominated] entered in Feb 07 will promote a -NAO signal [this smaller cycle is an approx 36year cycle.]

Thanks for the link C

BFTP

[kold weather]

I'm just wondering how is the tropical Atlantic doing right now?

[Eugene]

The latest stratospheric information suggests that we are still not in summer mode with the FW yet to occur.

Yep the latest UKMO and GME indicate this with winter looking synoptics.

[chionomaniac]

I'm just wondering how is the tropical Atlantic doing right now?

The average stratospheric temperature at 30 hPa is showing signs of rising but is still below average for this time of year between 25S and 25N.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/30mb2525.gif

How does this affect the Hurricane season KW?