Atlantic Lows - November Onwards

[Cookie]

This is the time of year when we start getting the peak of the winter storms. As the past few days have shown. This thread will be used to track and monitor these lows/ storms. If warranted a new thread will appear in the extreme weather section of the forum.

Useful links - A quick few links that are useful for tracking and monitoring Atlantic lows.

Netweater extra and the free data center also provide lots of information. click the links at the top of the page for more information.

Met office marine forecasts - http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/marine/

Met office surface pressure charts - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html

UK wind map - http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Magicseaweed - http://magicseaweed....-Surf-Charts/1/

The Beaufort scale - http://www.zetnet.co.uk/sigs/weather/Met_Codes/beaufort.htm

Met eireann - http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

Weather online peak gusts - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/

Inshore forecast from the Met - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/inshore_forecast.html#All

SEPA - http://www.sepa.org.uk/

Iceland Satellite Image of the Atlantic - http://en.vedur.is/w.../#type=atlantic

National data buoy center - http://www.ndbc.noaa...d_Kingdom.shtml

Tides times from the BBC - http://www.bbc.co.uk...090501&loc=0308

Wind speeds around the uk - http://www.british-t.../windspeeds.htm

Sky link - http://skylinkweathe...mapstyle=cutout

Past Atlantic storms - http://en.wikipedia....opean_windstorm

Wind finder - http://www.windfinder.com/weatherforecast/humberside

If anyone else has got any good links feel free to add below and will get them included.

Edited November 15, 2009 by cookie

[Zenarcher]

Thanks for opening up a new thread Cookie :lol: Some of the links you have listed don't work though.

Back on topic looking ahead to Thursday and Friday looks to be the next windy weather.

[Liam J]

thursday is looking quite worrying, with an intense low passing between scotland and iceland and a steep pressure gradient over the uk with severe gales and storms likely over a wide area...met office already have advisory out 4 days in advance

[The PIT]

I made the comment on the original thread that the Low could change 24 hrs before hand. Well it changed within that period. Doh.

Looks like we'll have to wait until Thursday for some breezy stuff.

Edited November 15, 2009 by The PIT

[Cookie]

Thanks for opening up a new thread Cookie Some of the links you have listed don't work though.

Back on topic looking ahead to Thursday and Friday looks to be the next windy weather.

which ones? I spent around 30 mins trying to make sure they all worked

[Zenarcher]

which ones? I spent around 30 mins trying to make sure they all worked :(

Past Atlantic storms

Sky link

Wind speeds around the uk

Tides times from the BBC

National data buoy center

Iceland Satellite Image of the Atlantic

Magicseaweed

[Mondy]

There is a shed load to come beforehand, but if this comes off, we are in trouble

[cyclonic happiness]

Tomorrows low is starting to look a bit nasty?

Has anyone got an atlantic windspeeds map?

Edited November 15, 2009 by cyclonic happiness

[Cookie]

Past Atlantic storms

Sky link

Wind speeds around the uk

Tides times from the BBC

National data buoy center

Iceland Satellite Image of the Atlantic

Magicseaweed

thanks will attempt to fix

[Mondy]

Saturday night

There is also a feature for Thurs/Fri this week

[Zachary]

Ouch! Stormy night indeed!

[Mondy]

Reminds me of the 2005 storm up here. Almost exact location of the deep low. Sadly it proved to be a killer

http://www.wiseweather.co.uk/id85.html

Hopefully, it's downgraded. I like my wind storms, but that's look "deadly" again if it comes off.

[Zenarcher]

Yeah remember that night bad one would not like to experience anything like it again.

[Zenarcher]

Some places currently windy right now, western Wales gusting to 51mph and south western Scotland gusting to 56mph mostly on coast areas.

[Liam J]

O M G just come home to look at the pressure on the gfs through the week, cant beleive that monster for saturday!!

70mph sustained winds for the isle of man/irish sea and 55mph sustained winds for my area even 20 miles inland its showing severe land gales...if (big if) it was to come off we would be looking at 90-100mph gusts and MAJOR damage

but i am hoping for a downgrade even though i like a storm that one makes scary viewing

[Terminal Moraine]

ECM isn't showing anything like as severe a storm as GFS so I think it'll pay to hang on a while before getting too excited about it. GFS has a habit of creating super storms and then gradually downgrading the intensity as zero hour approaches. If the fax' charts are showing something similar on Thursday morning I'll take the precaution of checking the back up batteries in the Davis.

Edited November 16, 2009 by Terminal Moraine

[philglossop]

Saturday night

There is also a feature for Thurs/Fri this week

Just a quick thought, as it stands it'll be around low water on the West of Scotland at 9pm on Saturday night. I hope!

That should help with water levels with that westerly screamer.

[Cookie]

we're being ever so slightly teased.

[Terminal Moraine]

Although it's with the caveats outlined in my post earlier, the GFS 18z shows an intense secondary low zipping across the middle of the country on Saturday and actually placing my location in the optimum position for some severe gales.

In fact it's one of the very few occasions I've seen mean inland wind speeds over England progged at 40-45 mph and is therefore almost certainly much to good to be true; 5 days away is just too far.

[Mondy]

18z has always been the "pub run". Let's see where we are at T+48..guess we'll be tracking it ourselves by then without any model guidance..

If the pevious 12z chart does come off, it will be a mess for many areas of the UK.

[Lewis]

Still a cause for concern regarding Saturday's intense LP system, ECM now following the GFS with its depth, UKMO doesn't forecast it as deep but it may be that all three are agreeing with the track of the Low - taking if over or just to west of Ireland swinging back over the western isles of Scotland. However, this may mean nothing considering how far we have to go until Saturday, so alot can change.

It may turn out that nearer to the time, the models shift the track to take it much further south and east with the strongest winds over England, which is what happened with last Friday's system. A week before it had the NW and Scotland in the 'firing line' but then pushed further south to affect southern counties, and even a few hours before closing in on the SW, its track and structure was slightly different to what was expected, so places like the Midlands avoided the "damaging gusts" predicted by the Met Office.

The next few days will generally be wet and windy, especially so across the western half of the UK where severe gales are possible - so Wales and north western regions most at risk from strong winds and persistent rainfall.

I think this one is more of an event for N NE England the NW and scotland in terms of the strongest winds, with the heaviest rain reserved for southern areas.

[Iceni]

Still a cause for concern regarding Saturday's intense LP system, ECM now following the GFS with its depth, UKMO doesn't forecast it as deep but it may be that all three are agreeing with the track of the Low - taking if over or just to west of Ireland swinging back over the western isles of Scotland. However, this may mean nothing considering how far we have to go until Saturday, so alot can change.

Could someone give me some advice re. the weekend weather?

I was going to drive my 91 y/o father down from Suffolk to Shaldon/Teignmouth Devon on Saturday 21st to visit his 93 year old sister who's in a nursing home there. We have a LR Defender which is a pretty good car, but looking at those winds and the rain, would it be advisable to postpone the trip for another week? I've no desire to be stuck in traffic jams or hit by trees especially with an elderly person on board :blink:.

Edited November 17, 2009 by Iceni

[johnholmes]

hi Iceni

Difficult call to make this far out-I would wait until Thursday to make a decision; its probably going to be a touch and go-rainfall in the far SW not a real problem and probably not the winds even; both look like being problems further north in my view, but as I suggested wait for Thursday.

The overall indications from all 3 models is for a very wet and fairly windy 3-6 days, starting tomorrow and lasting into the weekend.

Do take note of the alerts/ Warnings on here and with UK Met. Quite often the models do 'over-egg' rainfall totals but they look like being at least 2 inches and possibly 4 inches for some hilly parts in the west, from Wales northwards, and probably including N Ireland.

Winds are unlikely to reach the peak values of last Fri-Sat but still gale force in the far west and NW, perhaps touching 60+ mph in exposed places.

Edited November 17, 2009 by johnholmes

[The PIT]

Well as the last weekend showed even on the day forecasts of doom and gloom can be misplaced by a few hundred miles which makes all the difference to the days weather. A good source to check the wind speeds on the day is XCweather. You should be able to judge then whether the storm is going as planned or not.

[Mondy]

Still nasty looking 24 hours later:

Also appears to double back (or get "caught" in the jet) by Monday if you play the GFS sequence :lol: