Storm discussion: including convective possibilities

[linarite]

250mm??!! I just read that on the Met-O site. I don't think I've ever seen a weather worning with that much rain predicted. Not to say it hasn't happened.

When was the last time anyone saw a red (extreme) warning for Cumbria?

[Tucco]

When was the last time anyone saw a red (extreme) warning for Cumbria?

Jan 2005 I think but that was warning of 90/100mph winds.

The Jan 2005 event was followed by a drier period during January. This could be wetter plus it looks unsettled for a least anther week.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

[MAF]

Met Office have upgraded weather warnings. now Red for thurs/fri

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Edited November 18, 2009 by MAF

[The PIT]

Interesting but remember forecasts can go wrong. Today is a lot less interesting than forecast. Supposed to be windy and rather wet. Damp and not windy is overall description after winds suddenly died down around nineish. So it maybe red faces for met office or they maybe right.

[Harry]

Interesting but remember forecasts can go wrong. Today is a lot less interesting than forecast. Supposed to be windy and rather wet. Damp and not windy is overall description after winds suddenly died down around nineish. So it maybe red faces for met office or they maybe right.

Do remember The Pit, "calm before the storm" is not a myth. Last weekend before the storm came rattling in, the very night before, it was both mild, dry, calm and clear. Awoke the next morning to strong winds, cloud and heavy rain.

If you see on the pressure charts, there is a slight ridge prior to the next system moving in. This will be the calm weather you are experiencing now, unlike the tighter isobars across the S which are keeping it quite gusty here atm.

Edited November 18, 2009 by Harry

[linarite]

Jan 2005 I think but that was warning of 90/100mph winds.

The Jan 2005 event was followed by a drier period during January. This could be wetter plus it looks unsettled for a least anther week.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

If the max rainfall totals predicted by the Met Office come off, then the flooding this week will be every bit as bad (if not worse) than the Jan 2005 event. Max rainfall back then was at Shap (220mm) in 72 hrs. 250mm would be catastrophic if it occurred widely, and then on top of that there is the storm modelled for Saturday. I expect West Cumbria will be more badly affected this time, but maybe east Cumbria and Carlise (where main catchments are East of high ground) less badly. Keswick and Carlisle have enhanced their flood defences since 2005, but maybe not enough?

[Tucco]

If the max rainfall totals predicted by the Met Office come off, then the flooding this week will be every bit as bad (if not worse) than the Jan 2005 event. Max rainfall back then was at Shap (220mm) in 72 hrs. 250mm would be catastrophic if it occurred widely, and then on top of that there is the storm modelled for Saturday. I expect West Cumbria will be more badly affected this time, but maybe east Cumbria and Carlise (where main catchments are East of high ground) less badly. Keswick and Carlisle have enhanced their flood defences since 2005, but maybe not enough?

Think you'll be right regarding West Cumbria. It will be a close run thing for Carlisle's defences.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

Edited November 18, 2009 by Tucco

[MAF]

Interesting but remember forecasts can go wrong. Today is a lot less interesting than forecast. Supposed to be windy and rather wet. Damp and not windy is overall description after winds suddenly died down around nineish. So it maybe red faces for met office or they maybe right.

bit of fence sitting there Pit

i would think that a red alert by the Met Office would only be issued with a degree of caution and lots of checking. so am inclined to think they will be right

[Lewis]

And metoffice launched weather warning last night for N yorkshire due to heavy rain, they didnt expect the band to touch me, i recived almost 19mm of rain this morning in the space of a few hours.

Check me weather station theres proof.

lewis

[Just Before Dawn]

If the max rainfall totals predicted by the Met Office come off, then the flooding this week will be every bit as bad (if not worse) than the Jan 2005 event. Max rainfall back then was at Shap (220mm) in 72 hrs. 250mm would be catastrophic if it occurred widely, and then on top of that there is the storm modelled for Saturday. I expect West Cumbria will be more badly affected this time, but maybe east Cumbria and Carlise (where main catchments are East of high ground) less badly. Keswick and Carlisle have enhanced their flood defences since 2005, but maybe not enough?

We'll see. It isn't just flooding that would potentially be a problem either - that volume of water will saturate soils and create the ideal conditions for landslides. The Met Office warning is for 50-100mm widely and isolated areas receiving up to 250mm, so it will be a wait and see situation. Nevertheless, rainfall totals are progged to be similar to those which occurred in the run-up to the 2005 event, plus lets not forget that the area has had very high rainfall totals already this month, so rain is falling in high volume onto catchments already at or beyond capacity. So yes, potentially very serious I think.

[Schnee]

And metoffice launched weather warning last night for N yorkshire due to heavy rain, they didnt expect the band to touch me, i recived almost 19mm of rain this morning in the space of a few hours.

Check me weather station theres proof.

lewis

I don't think there was any warnings for West Yorks either. Lots of roads round here are flooded.

[dogs32]

I would of thought parts of Ireland will also come under this at some point..

Sky news also put out a warning not long ago for flooding in the North

[The PIT]

Do remember The Pit, "calm before the storm" is not a myth. Last weekend before the storm came rattling in, the very night before, it was both mild, dry, calm and clear. Awoke the next morning to strong winds, cloud and heavy rain.

If you see on the pressure charts, there is a slight ridge prior to the next system moving in. This will be the calm weather you are experiencing now, unlike the tighter isobars across the S which are keeping it quite gusty here atm.

And the storm was a lot further south and east than predicted. Which is why I said forecasts can go wrong even at very short time period.

The reasons why it's calm here today is due to the fact that the front has moved a little further south than predicted pushing us into the calmer air. This should change later today when the front moves North again.

As for the warning I'm trying to put a bit of a positive air on matters. Please remember rainfall predictions isn't set in iron and the Met office isn't very good at it. Wind they are generally very good at so if you don't get drowned there's a good chance of getting blown away.

Edited November 18, 2009 by The PIT

[linarite]

We'll see. It isn't just flooding that would potentially be a problem either - that volume of water will saturate soils and create the ideal conditions for landslides. The Met Office warning is for 50-100mm widely and isolated areas receiving up to 250mm, so it will be a wait and see situation. Nevertheless, rainfall totals are progged to be similar to those which occurred in the run-up to the 2005 event, plus lets not forget that the area has had very high rainfall totals already this month, so rain is falling in high volume onto catchments already at or beyond capacity. So yes, potentially very serious I think.

Indeed so - the rivers here are already full. Actually looking at the Met Office's account of the Jan 2005 event

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/jan2005floods/

rainfall totals then were widely around the 100mm mark, but rarely above, and the record 180mm (Rydal Hall) is given as a one in 200-year event! That makes me think the forecast for this week is even more worrying.

[geoffw]

hi should northern ireland be worried about trhe rain on thurssday and friday?

[Harry]

And the storm was a lot further south and east than predicted. Which is why I said forecasts can go wrong even at very short time period.

The reasons why it's calm here today is due to the fact that the front has moved a little further south than predicted pushing us into the calmer air. This should change later today when the front moves North again.

Absolutely - I was just referring to your comment about it being calm at the moment. Indeed the previous storm did track further S & E, but to be fair, that was relative to indications around 48+ hours before - this is a matter of a few hours.

Worth noting the MetO have extended the orange zone to cover a wider area either side of the red zone. This may tie in with your theories the exact location of the rainfall is still relatively uncertain - either way, even if the precise track is off, it is such a large expanse of rain, I think even if the worst shifts North or South, Cumbria will get a fair bit either way which is still dangerous.

Edited November 18, 2009 by Harry

[dogs32]

I would think if they are putting out a RED alert they must be confident..

J.H warned earlier this was going to happen...He doesnt issue warning's like that often

Espeacially those not far from rivers..

I would think unfortunately there will be lots of reports from flooding on the news by tomorrow...

Edited November 18, 2009 by dogs32

[Harry]

hi should northern ireland be worried about trhe rain on thurssday and friday?

To be honest, I am quite surprised NI hasn't been a focus of concern. NI has a flooding history, and like Cumbria been very wet of late. At present, NI is under a yellow warning, though I wouldn't be surprised if it is upgraded.

Edited November 18, 2009 by Harry

[geoffw]

hi should northern ireland be worried about the rain on thurssday and friday?

[dogs32]

hi should northern ireland be worried about the rain on thurssday and friday?

I would say yes...for concerned..

Not scaremongering but floods can be dangerous...

In fact example a Hurricane kills more by floods than flying debri.

So I would be on the look out with the rain totals expected

More so if you are not far away from any rivers.

Edited November 18, 2009 by dogs32

[geoffw]

then why does cumbria have a red colour warning and northern ireland is only colour. I thought we would get the same amount of rainfall?

[dogs32]

then why does cumbria have a red colour warning and northern ireland is only colour. I thought we would get the same amount of rainfall?

Geof I dont if you follow Met Office over the years but they do change there warnings as time goes by.

So just because its not there now doesnt mean it wont be later..

But to be honest you realy dont wont the RED warning

not very nice...

I hope it doesnt happen for you lot

floods a reminder of how nasty they are

Edited November 18, 2009 by dogs32

[Tucco]

then why does cumbria have a red colour warning and northern ireland is only colour. I thought we would get the same amount of rainfall?

The Lake Disrtict is much much wetter than NI. Parts are already on 350mm plus for the month. Rainfall totals can reach as high as 1800mm in a month in the wettest parts.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

Edited November 18, 2009 by Tucco

[Lewis]

Im going for 156mm for parts of Keswick.

[Methuselah]

I would say yes...for concerned..

Not scaremongering but floods can be dangerous...

In fact example a Hurricane kills more by floods than flying debri.

So I would be on the look out with the rain totals expected

More so if you are not far away from any rivers.

And, six inches of fast-flowing water can knock you off your feet and drown you!