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Convective Outlook

Paul Sherman

By Paul Sherman
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

Please use this topic to discuss the Upcoming Convective Chances from Tomorrow Onwards

The Link below is the Convective Outlook valid from tomorrow

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

All other off topic posts relating to the Flooding in the North West will be moved into that thread.

Regards

Paul Sherman

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Well I guess people have a lot to worry about in the North West, but we still have some interesting weather coming up for other parts of the country and that also looks to include some convective stuff. ESTOFEX for today:

post-6667-12587063650488_thumb.gif

Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 20 Nov 2009 06:00 to Sat 21 Nov 2009 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 19 Nov 2009 17:33

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for the far eastern Atlantic mainly for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Deep trough over the NE-Atlantic shifts eastward with strong WAA downstream, resulting in unseasonably warm conditions over south/central Europe. A cold and stable airmass prevails over far NE Europe with unsettled conditions over Norway and Sweden.

DISCUSSION

... General thunderstorm areas ...

A weak wave, embedded in the SW-erly flow causes regionally enhanced convective precipitation probabilities over parts of Scotland during the noon/afternoon and along the SW coast of Norway during the morning hours. Nothing severe is forecast. Both GFS and ECMWF are in-line with highlighting thunderstorm areas.

... Level 1 area ...

And again, another set-up for a strong warm conveyor belt (WCB) over the far eastern Atlantic. Winds at all levels ramp up during the night hours with peaks of 65m/s at 500hPa, 40m/s at 850hPa and the advection of weakly modified tropical airmass. Compared to the last events, the cold airmass is displaced well to the west, so the overall precipitation event remains more stratiform in nature. However, environmental conditions are again favourable for some conditional symmetric instability release and therefore embedded convection. Confidence in more than sporadic thunderstorms is too low for a thunderstorm area. A non-thunder level 1 was included due to enhanced chances for embedded convective segments and intense winds just above the surface along the eastnortheastward moving cold front. Despite limited mixing and very weak lapse rates in the BL, wind gusts in excess of our severe criterion are forecast. This WCB spreads NE-wards and is about to affect Ireland and UK during the morning hours with another round of rain on already soaked ground.

West of the level-1, winds at 850hPa remain at 20m/s with good downward momentum, but postfrontal subsidence limits convective activity until 06 UTC

I wonder where that level one is heading for?

PGNE14_CL.gif

I imagine TORRO wil update during the morning and UKASF seem to be away at the moment.

Other indicators for today into tomorrow:

21OWS_EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_36.GIF

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_12_00Z.png

gfs_spout_eur12.png

gfs_stp_eur12.png

Rtavn1211.png

MANU_20091120_0600.png

That's a hell of a lot of weather coming in form the Atlantic and I think a lot of it is still heading for the North West. Still some convective potential today and the next 2 or 3 days.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Well Sunday could be very tricky over the central strip of the UK with very high winds crossing the country. Won't help Cumbria much either.

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Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
Posted

Me too lolbiggrin.gif I think it's most defanitly my turn now. Nothing from UKASF or Netweather storm forecast yet .. maybe we'll hear something tommorow.biggrin.gif

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BrickFielder Rising Star

BrickFielder

Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
Posted

Models are now suggesting a moderate risk of a severe weather event for the south east of the UK as a trough moves through and warm moist air is advected into the region. The period to watch is around 12:00 - 15:00 hours on Sunday. At the very lest we should expet some squally gusty winds.

Timing and positioning is critical and most likely to subtly change so the area affected may shift.

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Author
Posted

Thanks for that Brick

Wow you wait 2 years for a MODERATE RISK On Netweather and then you possibly get 2 within 8 days of each other if the models hold together, the last one yielded a few Tornadoes so you never know.

The Below Highlighted taken from Tony Gilbert on Ukww

Sunday 22nd Nov Outlook

A very interesting number of conditions coming together for central south and SE UK through daytime hrs Sunday. Whilst rather early to make a balanced forecast. In theory the models ATM suggest a 'Moderate' Risk of a strong tornado event and potential for hail.

Paul S

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

nothing from Torro yet..

Sky woman going for very heavy thundery shower's which will be frequent tomorrow..

quiet a few sferic's currently off Western Ireland

lots of heavy showers packing in on Sat24

you can see the top's being sheared off with strong high level winds

Edited by dogs32
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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

certainly on the increase Jane on NW....

looks like some potent shower's heading East

or N/W

Edited by dogs32
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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

looks as though there are a few storms heading for North West Wales or The Isle Of Man with quite a few lightning strikes.

Strikes on the increase

also another batch in The Severn Channel

Edited by dogs32
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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

A few thunderstorms making good progress across the water, probably because of the warm water temperatures, i will keep an eye out for the odd flash out in the atlantic.

Edit: Just had a nice flash of lightning and crack of thunder to my West here

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

nice shape to the tops growing out to the West of Cornwall even deeper clouds than the current Thundery shower's out to sea west Wales

Edited by dogs32
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stormforce 10 Apprentice

stormforce 10

Posted
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: blizzards and frost.
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
Posted

no heavy showers here yet, but wind is starting to pick up. i have a feeling its only a matter of time before it gets stormy here.

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

there's more sferics now showing in Cornwall and Wales...Blip's?

Had a very squally shower and 3 flashes of lightning along with some very loud thunder. Nothing now though

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

Brilliant flash of lightning just east of here!

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

Had a very squally shower and 3 flashes of lightning along with some very loud thunder. Nothing now though

The one to your North West is more active and might be heading for North West Cumbria out to sea.....Looks that way on the loop

edit or Cumbria..like snow joke is saying

Edited by dogs32
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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

tthis trough kicked up by the warm irish sea, and the topography means theres a lot of it from I-O-M to the Cumbrian coast for it to pick up moisture. not great for the rescue efforts and certainly not needed at this time. Im afraid Cumbria may be in for a deluge in the coming hour or two if it continues on the path its taking.

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stormforce 10 Apprentice

stormforce 10

Posted
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: blizzards and frost.
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
Posted

The one to your North West is more active and might be heading for North West Cumbria out to sea.....Looks that way on the loop

edit or Cumbria..like snow joke is saying

dogs, is there any showers coming into the west of ireland?

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

dogs, is there any showers coming into the west of ireland?

according to Sat 24 there looks a mass of them

on NW yes just West

Im interested in the tops out to sea west of Cornwall.and North West Ireland

..got the TS shape in early stages at present...Just hope they grow

edit

seen these shapes many times on SAT INFRA and often they go with a bang

Edited by dogs32
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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

Some more distant flashes to the NW I think over the Bay. The first near one 3 miles east had thunder, little rain.

These showers whizzing along, clear now!

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