Tropical Depression 27W

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 93W has finally become a tropical depression on the coast of the Philippines. 27W is providing heavy rains to the southeast of the country. Flooding rains may persist for a couple days as 27W is trapped in a weak steering environment with little motion expected over the next 48hrs. Eventually, 27W should be picked up by westerly steering flow from a ridge developing to the south which will take 27W back out to sea. Only then, does this system have the potential to strengthen, as the westward loop/meandering will mean 27W will remain over land for the next couple days. Quite a strange track this one!

[Somerset Squall]

27W has moved fully inland. Intensity is at 30kts, slightly higher than before due to an LLC that has become tighter due to friction with land. However, with the weak steering environment, the land will negatively impact 27W over the next 36hrs. Eventually, as I previously discussed, 27W should push eastwards and emerge over water again. However, significant strengthening appears unlikely at this time, primarily because the cyclone will be moving very near TS Nida to the east (which will likely be a strong typhoon at this point). If the track forecast verifies, Fujiwhara Interaction is likely- and 27W will be worse off as it will be the weaker storm. It'll be interesting to see what happens! This is quite unusual because there has already been two other cases of Fujiwhara interaction this year in the West Pacific: Super Typhoon Melor and Super Typhoon Parma interacted, and Parma interacted with another storm, 18W, which ended up being absorbed. The Fujiwhara effect isn't all that common.

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seems to be getting mentioned a lot this year for being uncommon

we now have Tropical Depression "URDUJA

[Somerset Squall]

27W has dissipated just north of Mindinao. The LLC has suffered from interaction with land, and the convection has become rather shapeless, indicating the LLC is not well defined enough for 27W to be regarded as a tropical depression anymore. There is a small chance that when the remnants drift east, they could re-develop. For now at least, 27W is no more.