Cold Spell Discussion 5

[Harry]

i don't agree with this climate change nonsense I as other on this forum think we are heading back into a cooling phase in the planets cycle

Quite frankly - I don't know what to believe. The government's (I am going somewhere with this) outright lies, manipulation of statistics and shear ignorance, makes me question every statistic, including those from scientific bodies. Wouldn't it be so easy for a government to ramp up fears of global warming/climate change in order to bleed the population dry through added taxes!!!

Statistics in general I tend to take with a pinch of salt if I suspect there is a political agenda attached, however based purely on empricism, I would say the climate is changing! There are so many factors however which I think are being conveniently overlooked (ignored), including solar activity, volcanic/geological activity, ozone etc.

Anyways - back on topic - just another case of wait and see IMO!

[snowking]

Met Office Updated mid-range isnt looking particularly impressive

Western and central parts of the UK will stay dry with clear or sunny spells. It will be cold with some overnight fog and frost. Eastern areas as well as Northern Scotland will be cloudy with rain at times, which may fall as snow over hills. Temperatures mostly cold but the north of Scotland will be windy with near normal temperatures. From Friday (18th) until Sunday (20th) many northern and eastern parts will continue cloudy with rain or sleet at times, but perhaps some snow over hills. Further south and west, drier and brighter but with a risk of rain, sleet or snow spreading from the east . Windy around coasts and feeling very cold with overnight frost. From Monday (21st) until Christmas Day little change is expected.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think the problem is that in the old days, we wouldn't have been aware of "downgrades" as much because there was less personal computer usage, less accessiblity to weather models etc.

For instance, 20 years ago, the vast majority of members wouldn't have been aware of this coming spell apart from any mention on weather broadcasts on radio/TV etc.

I remember that in the 1990s, I relied entirely on the synoptic analysis of the BBC forecasts for my fill of the "model outlook"- I didn't start going online for much in the way of weather info until 2002. As a result I rarely found out about what was projected for more than 5-6 days out, sometimes less.

That said I certainly remember times when northerly or easterly winds and widespread snow showers were forecast about 4-5 days ahead, only for the forecast to suddenly revert to saying mild south-westerlies or at most a 36 hour northerly with a few sleet/snow flurries for Aberdeen. It happened a few times during March 1997 for example. From that, I gather these "downgrades" must have been commonplace in the 1990s as well.

The "easterly near-miss" in February 2001 largely passed me by- I'm guessing that once the BBC forecasts started covering it, the downgrade had already started.

[glasgow-guy]

Met Office Updated mid-range isnt looking particularly impressive

thanks but was posted earlier don't think it means much

[Spurry]

I've been watching the build up ofthe cold spell all week and it was looking great for my area , however the big wall seems to be up around the NW on the precipitation type charts as usual, and it'll be just rain or nothing here

[kold weather]

Yep Snowking but as I've said before they don't actually mention any details past the 20th, they simply don't know because there is a massive amount of scatter about what will happen on the ECM ensembles which they wil lno doubt get the full data for.

It'd be an arctic northerly and the importantly a cyclonic one, most of ours tend to be dmonated by a toppler high with the main instablity to our east, the best northerly I can remember was actually in November 2005, that was a proper northerly.

However its very risky, esp if the low sets up too far west, if that happens then our cold spell could end pretty quickly....but thats a long way in the future yet.

[winterfreak]

I take it all's still fairly 'odds on' for some wintry weather???

I'd love snow for all but TBH, just some heavy frosts and 0c max temps would be just as lovely and would be certainly more seasonal........

[glasgow-guy]

Yep Snowking but as I've said before they don't actually mention any details past the 20th, they simply don't know because there is a massive amount of scatter about what will happen on the ECM ensembles which they wil lno doubt get the full data for.

It'd be an arctic northerly and the importantly a cyclonic one, most of ours tend to be dmonated by a toppler high with the main instablity to our east, the best northerly I can remember was actually in November 2005, that was a proper northerly.

However its very risky, esp if the low sets up too far west, if that happens then our cold spell could end pretty quickly....but thats a long way in the future yet.

that's the best set up for almost all of the country might be one to look out for in the short term?

[Thundery wintry showers]

There have been quite a number of good cyclonic northerlies in mid to late December in recent years. Christmas 1995 is pretty well known- that one was consistently forecast by the BBC from 8 (!) days in advance, though they must have overestimated the potency of the Christmas Eve polar low as they said snow showers would be widespread on Christmas Day 1995, when in reality they didn't penetrate far beyond the usual north-facing coasts and hills. Most of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England were blanketed in the white stuff by that Christmas Eve polar low.

Late December 2000 had a brief half-hearted easterly (24th/25th) followed by a potent cyclonic/northerly regime which brought, alongside early Feb 2009, the most widespread snow event of the 2000s. Only a select few failed to be hit by the polar low, and some of the areas that missed out on the polar low's snowfalls (e.g. coastal parts of SE Scotland and NE England) were hit by heavy snow showers and even the odd rumble of thunder when the low moved out into the North Sea.

Also late December 2001 is worth a mention. A cyclonic north-westerly regime brought snow showers to many western areas on the 29th, and as the flow veered north-easterly on the 30th many eastern areas were then affected. Manchester Airport had >50% cover for six consecutive days.

The most recent example was early December 2008 although this was generally the wrong side of marginal in the south. Parts of Scotland and northern England had a good 4-5 days of snow cover from that, and on high ground there was snow cover for most of the first half of the month.

[snowking]

Yep Snowking but as I've said before they don't actually mention any details past the 20th, they simply don't know because there is a massive amount of scatter about what will happen on the ECM ensembles which they wil lno doubt get the full data for.

It'd be an arctic northerly and the importantly a cyclonic one, most of ours tend to be dmonated by a toppler high with the main instablity to our east, the best northerly I can remember was actually in November 2005, that was a proper northerly.

However its very risky, esp if the low sets up too far west, if that happens then our cold spell could end pretty quickly....but thats a long way in the future yet.

I think one thing that is noticeable in recent times is that when the met office puts out a forecast for snow, it is always accompanied initially by the words 'rain' and 'sleet' - i guess its a sort of insurance policy for them to cover the spectrum of possibilities with the current turbulent nature of the model evolution, either that or an Ian Brown view of things that we will get modification in any cold flows due to a certain era

To be honest given the current teleconnection outlook, even if we just get cold without the snow, the snow will come eventually. This will merely act as an opportunity to cool the surface down a bit

SK

[glasgow-guy]

There have been quite a number of good cyclonic northerlies in mid to late December in recent years. Christmas 1995 is pretty well known- that one was consistently forecast by the BBC from 8 (!) days in advance, though they must have overestimated the potency of the Christmas Eve polar low as they said snow showers would be widespread on Christmas Day 1995, when in reality they didn't penetrate far beyond the usual north-facing coasts and hills. Most of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England were blanketed in the white stuff by that Christmas Eve polar low.

Late December 2000 had a brief half-hearted easterly (24th/25th) followed by a potent cyclonic/northerly regime which brought, alongside early Feb 2009, the most widespread snow event of the 2000s. Only a select few failed to be hit by the polar low, and some of the areas that missed out on the polar low's snowfalls (e.g. coastal parts of SE Scotland and NE England) were hit by heavy snow showers and even the odd rumble of thunder when the low moved out into the North Sea.

Also late December 2001 is worth a mention. A cyclonic north-westerly regime brought snow showers to many western areas on the 29th, and as the flow veered north-easterly on the 30th many eastern areas were then affected. Manchester Airport had >50% cover for six consecutive days.

The most recent example was early December 2008 although this was generally the wrong side of marginal in the south. Parts of Scotland and northern England had a good 4-5 days of snow cover from that, and on high ground there was snow cover for most of the first half of the month.

so we look to the models again this evening looking for signs of hope

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Didn't the GFS first prog Thursday the 17th as the day to deliver 'the goods' late last week and by and large it is still showing this, which if it verifies will have been a good spot imo. The easterly for monday/tueday was only ever a weak to nothing affair earlier on.

Edited December 11, 2009 by Dartmoor_Matt

[Duane S.]

I think the problem is that in the old days, we wouldn't have been aware of "downgrades" as much because there was less personal computer usage, less accessiblity to weather models etc.

For instance, 20 years ago, the vast majority of members wouldn't have been aware of this coming spell apart from any mention on weather broadcasts on radio/TV etc.

So true. If this was happening xx years ago, all that 99.9% of us would know at this stage would be the forecasters starting to tell us on the BBC/ITV that colder weather was on the way next week. There must have be hundreds of occasions in the past xx years before the internet age that the METO had been watching a potential severe cold spell about to materialise, only for it to downgrade a few days before. Being realistic, how would we ever have known?

Living where I do, I expect nothing but hope for something, anything in fact...! A passing light snow shower here is like a 5cm covering in other places in terms of expectations, really! However as I've said many times in the past, we in the SW are in a prime place to receive the jackpot payload of snow, the likes of which most other places in the UK would never be able to match. Problem is the amount of things you need to fall into place for it to happen!

[WS Evolution]

Don't forget the cold spell is already here for many... maybe not the cold uppers, but cold at surface level: The temp in the vale of york got up to 1C @ 11.30am, but back down again to 0.5C and was -2 this morning! Temps below forecast (+4), with frost and ice persisting, will probably last all day in the shade.

With the surface temps already cold it must be good news for the prospects of settling snow if / when the showers arrive.

[kold weather]

Also something to note that hasn't been noted is how cold today is turning out to be in some places.

The places that had fog are really struggling to get above 0-1C still and quite a few areas are still quite some way below yesterdays GFS temp forecast of 6-7C with a lot of areas still hanging around 3-4C.

Overnight mins were quite considerable colder then expected as well it seems with plenty of places getting decently below 0C. I expect the same will happen again though temps may recorver towards the end of the night in the SE as the winds start coming off the north sea instead.

[Nights King]

So true. If this was happening xx years ago, all that 99.9% of us would know at this stage would be the forecasters starting to tell us on the BBC/ITV that colder weather was on the way next week. There must have be hundreds of occasions in the past xx years before the internet age that the METO had been watching a potential severe cold spell about to materialise, only for it to downgrade a few days before. Being realistic, how would we ever have known?

Living where I do, I expect nothing but hope for something, anything in fact...! A passing light snow shower here is like a 5cm covering in other places in terms of expectations, really! However as I've said many times in the past, we in the SW are in a prime place to receive the jackpot payload of snow, the likes of which most other places in the UK would never be able to match. Problem is the amount of things you need to fall into place for it to happen!

The jack pot is what i wait for. there are still pictures of snowdrifts covering my local pub roof years ago. I look at it everytime i go in for a drink at somepoint.

[grab my graupel]

Will open a new thread very soon folks

[Dartmoor_Matt]

The jack pot is what i wait for. there are still pictures of snowdrifts covering my local pub roof years ago. I look at it everytime i go in for a drink at somepoint.

Tell me about it, there's one on the road to Postbridge called 'The Warren House Inn' and there are pictures from 62/63 when food had to be helicoptered in because of the drifts. (25')!!! Good place for a drink... and to see the Devils playing cards

[SteveB]

I remember the payload we got back in the early 80's. That must have been a boarder line situation because it started off as drizzle, then turned to sleet, then it started to snow.

I remember it because we were in the car at the time & in the 20 or so mins we were travelling you could see it change in front of your eyes.

[IRON-BRU]

I really hope i am wrong but i does seem to me the met office are starting to downgrade the cold spell.I have certainly seen no press releases or forecasters talking about snow within the last 24HRS .Paul Hudson our local BBC weatherman was getting very excited on Tues/Wed with talk of snow in our area.Now for Monday/Tuesday -"Temps just below average with rain,no sign of snow ".I know we should take the met office further outlook with a pinch of salt but i do not believe in the short term we have the potential for snow.Contrast this with most posts 24/36 hrs ago when talk of snow for the south east sunday night/monday was widespread.

Anyway thanks to all whom make this site such an informative read and hopefully come Tues/wed this post will have been consigned to the rubbish bin!

[grab my graupel]

New thread is below

Will close this one soon

[Duane S.]

Yep Snowking but as I've said before they don't actually mention any details past the 20th, they simply don't know because there is a massive amount of scatter about what will happen on the ECM ensembles which they wil lno doubt get the full data for.

It'd be an arctic northerly and the importantly a cyclonic one, most of ours tend to be dmonated by a toppler high with the main instablity to our east, the best northerly I can remember was actually in November 2005, that was a proper northerly.

However its very risky, esp if the low sets up too far west, if that happens then our cold spell could end pretty quickly....but thats a long way in the future yet.

Reference that November 2005 event, who on here would have gone for quite such a good chart on the 25th after the one on the 22nd?

[Jezzer]

Tell me about it, there's one on the road to Postbridge called 'The Warren House Inn' and there are pictures from 62/63 when food had to be helicoptered in because of the drifts. (25')!!! Good place for a drink... and to see the Devils playing cards

Looks like a great place, those drifts in the pic are fantastic

http://www.legendarydartmoor.co.uk/images/Warrenhse2.gif

Keeping my fingers firmly crossed for something special next Thursday, with luck this cold spell could last to the big day! This is just as bad as waiting for heatwaves in the summer, nerve wracking stuff!