Cold Spell Discussion 5

[kold weather]

Where gets hit is going to depend very much on the wind direction and what model is right, as they still don't really agree about the flow, the UKMO/ECM having high pressure closer to the UK and bringing in very marginal conditions indeed, whilst the GFS is the boldest of them thats for sure.

Anyway the cold spell has started now it seems, first time in a long while there has been 2 dry days in a row!

The SE should do well but once again the exacts of the wind flow is still up for big debate, could be anything from a pure easterly shot to a ENE and some models even kink it NE as a shortwave moves through...something to watch for the SE as it may bulls us up badly if we get in any warm sector...

[Zenarcher]

Hi everyone,

The chance of seeing wintry weather for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday still looks good.

06z run charts,

Snow,

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Lowest Temperature,

Sunday,

Monday

Tuesday

Lowest Dew Point,

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Edited December 11, 2009 by weathermaster

[Neilsouth]

Thanks weathermaster

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Todays METO update has a cold theme persisting throughout up to xmas BUT it suggests rain and sleet mostly throughout the period in the east with snow only on hills whilst central and western areas stay largely dry....

hmmn!?

[kold weather]

If the models have it right this time round then any second easterly shot isw going to be more then cold enough for snow the whole to sea level, the 0z UKMO chart for example has thickness just below 520 and so I'd imagine -8's would be on that chart and thats probably the worst of the lot of them, plus the ole north sea will cool down quite rapidly once we get a cold flow going and mixing tings ups.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

That meto update is not great news.Mixture of rain sleet and PERHAPS snow on the hills will not have

anyone rushing to buy a sledge will it?

Cold,raw,miserable,not a great cold spell .

[glasgow-guy]

That meto update is not great news.Mixture of rain sleet and PERHAPS snow on the hills will not have

anyone rushing to buy a sledge will it?

Cold,raw,miserable,not a great cold spell .

wouldn't worry just yet its probably one pulled out to wind northerners up but its all good fun

[Paul Sherman]

OUCH!!!!!!!!

UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Dec 2009 to Friday 25 Dec 2009:

Western and central parts of the UK will stay dry with clear or sunny spells. It will be cold with some overnight fog and frost. Eastern areas as well as Northern Scotland will be cloudy with rain at times, which may fall as snow over hills. Temperatures mostly cold but the north of Scotland will be windy with near normal temperatures. From Friday (18th) until Sunday (21st) many northern and eastern parts will continue cloudy with rain or sleet at times, but perhaps some snow over hills. Further south and west, drier and brighter but with a risk of rain, sleet or snow spreading from the east . Windy around coasts and feeling very cold with overnight frost. From Monday 22nd until Christmas Day little change is expected.

Updated: 1120 on Fri 11 Dec 2009

[Nights King]

That meto update is not great news.Mixture of rain sleet and PERHAPS snow on the hills will not have

anyone rushing to buy a sledge will it?

Cold,raw,miserable,not a great cold spell .

I wouldnt take any notice of that update to be honest. They are not sure of the detail so they have covered every angle (rain/sleet and snow) They also change the outlook on a daily basis quite widely so tomoro could be bitter and cold or could be mild depending on how it looks first thing in that morning.

[noggin]

So.....nothing for us here in the Westcountry, then.

I get a little envious when it's always the Southeast that gets the snow. I am comforted, though, that they also get it hotter and sweatier in the Summer, and I would hate that, so I suppose it sort of balances out. Sort of......

My motto....expect nothing, and you won't be disappointed.

Peace and love to all!

[glasgow-guy]

OUCH!!!!!!!! :nonono:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Dec 2009 to Friday 25 Dec 2009:

Western and central parts of the UK will stay dry with clear or sunny spells. It will be cold with some overnight fog and frost. Eastern areas as well as Northern Scotland will be cloudy with rain at times, which may fall as snow over hills. Temperatures mostly cold but the north of Scotland will be windy with near normal temperatures. From Friday (18th) until Sunday (21st) many northern and eastern parts will continue cloudy with rain or sleet at times, but perhaps some snow over hills. Further south and west, drier and brighter but with a risk of rain, sleet or snow spreading from the east . Windy around coasts and feeling very cold with overnight frost. From Monday 22nd until Christmas Day little change is expected.

Updated: 1120 on Fri 11 Dec 2009

lol so much for the beast from the east cant believe its broken down so quickly by next week will be a worry to all. it goes to show those models don't mean much in the bigger picture

Edited December 11, 2009 by glasgow-guy

[ian34]

I wouldnt take any notice of that update to be honest. They are not sure of the detail so they have covered every angle (rain/sleet and snow) They also change the outlook on a daily basis quite widely so tomoro could be bitter and cold or could be mild depending on how it looks first thing in that morning.

and so the media frenzy begins

Date: 11 December 2009

Wigan is braced for a major cold snap with freezing temperatures this weekend.

Following the wettest November on record, widespread frosts and isolated wintry showers are set to the hit the country.

Stephen Davenport, a forecaster with MeteoGroup, said it was too early to predict a white Christmas, but added snow showers were likely before then.

source:wigans local paper

[kold weather]

Note it talks in depth aobut the 18-21st but doesn't really mention any detail after that...

I think that should say it all with regards to the MO confidence in whats goin gto happen. Trust me if we get what the big 3 show for 144hrs, there WILL be snow at low levels, possibly right to the coast even as well..I wouldn't stress out about that too much at this early stage.

[glasgow-guy]

Note it talks in depth aobut the 18-21st but doesn't really mention any detail after that...

I think that should say it all with regards to the MO confidence in whats goin gto happen. Trust me if we get what the big 3 show for 144hrs, there WILL be snow at low levels, possibly right to the coast even as well..I wouldn't stress out about that too much at this early stage.

i don't really trust the models much anyway but its a huge turn around if true but this evenings models could predict something different again

[Dingwantssnow]

Can some of you clarify this for me please. I have heard from various sources that when North America get a big freeze on we generally get the same weather system later down the line??

Is this true?? And if it is to what extent i.e 90% of the time or 0.00000001% of the time.

[Paul Sherman]

Thing is though Darren it is always T120-T168 On the Models, remember on Tuesday we were looking at T120 & Seeing amazing runs with -10 Uppers with a keen easterly for Sunday into Monday and now we have Rain or Sleet Showers with a slack flow. So when we get to Wed/Thur next week we will probably be talking about T120 Again which will by that time be the Monday b4 Xmas.

Not looking great and something I was worried about when I quoted the Meto Update 3 days ago citing dry and settled weather with blustery wintry showers and snow on hills. I still think they favour a Northerly before Xmas in some shape and form as well.

Paul S

Can some of you clarify this for me please. I have heard from various sources that when North America get a big freeze on we generally get the same weather system later down the line??

Is this true?? And if it is to what extent i.e 90% of the time or 0.00000001% of the time.

Well true to a certain extent in this Set-Up as the WAA Due to the High Pressure ridging towards Greenland displaces the Cold over the Pole towards a. USA (More esp NE USA) & b. Scandinavia which usually then allows the Cold to advect SWestwards towards the Uk further down the line

[glasgow-guy]

Can some of you clarify this for me please. I have heard from various sources that when North America get a big freeze on we generally get the same weather system later down the line??

Is this true?? And if it is to what extent i.e 90% of the time or 0.00000001% of the time.

i have always heard the same thing never knowing if it was true can anyone add to this?

oops thanks Paul didn't see your post

Edited December 11, 2009 by glasgow-guy

[Rob W]

Leeds and Bradford AP (208 m) 0°

This tallies with what my temperature gauge told me the overnight low had been when I looked this morning (-0.2°c).

Edited December 11, 2009 by Rob W

[MAF]

yes Paul, like the lovely cakes in the window. always in view but never able to touch.

was just reading the Met Office forecast for the Xmas day period and they are saying this for the period to 24th december

It will be cold or rather cold at first, with showers which may be prolonged at times across northern and eastern parts and perhaps moving into central areas at times. Some showers likely to fall as sleet or snow. Overnight frost is likely in many areas with fog in places. By the end of the week and over the weekend, staying cold or perhaps even turning very cold, with an increased risk of longer spells of sleet and snow. It is also likely to be windy at times making it feel even colder. At this stage, the cold and unsettled weather seems likely continue after next weekend with more spells of rain, sleet and snow, especially in the north and east.

[Weather-history]

Press release by Met Office

We are predicting a much colder spell of weather next week, with an increasing chance of sleet or snow, especially in the east.

Daytime temperatures may not rise much above freezing in places, with mist and fog that could persist in one or two areas.

Met Office Chief Forecaster, Frank Saunders said: “The change of weather follows a spell of very wet and mild weather but the coming days will add a more seasonal flavour for anybody out Christmas shopping

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20091210c.html

[glasgow-guy]

today feels like a big downgrade i think we all feared this coming however there is plenty of twists and turns in the road so stay positive folks

[Herefordweather]

The problem with us in the UK, is that we expect severe cold weather like the old days.

Things have changed now and to get the perfect setup is something that just doesn't seem likely anymore.

[kold weather]

To be honest though Paul it was only the GFS that was really bringing in the goods wit hthe intial easterly, the UKMO/ECM both only brought in half hearted attempts and so there was always going to be less confidence with that one.

However you are quite right it is somewhat further out and actually looking at the models they do look more dominated by a northerly outlook once you get towards the weekend I agree, of course its VERY different from the bog standard northerly toppler in that this time we really will be dragging the whole vortex southwards which will mean the whole flow should be a lot more unstable thnaks to lower heights, I'm willing to bet even a northerly would be loaded with disturbances.

I'm feeling more confident on the evolution today for the first time, with all the big three agreeing on general ideas, but as always details can change quite quickly!

Everyone should note they don't mention nothing other then overnight frosts past Monday and swiftly move onto the week after...that should prove they aren't sure enough about what will happen to make any reference to it, I think the Met office put the dates in that forecast specifcally to show they are focusing in on the weekend and not beyond as I've never seen them do that before.

Edited December 11, 2009 by kold weather

[Weather-history]

The problem with us in the UK, is that we expect severe cold weather like the old days.

Things have changed now and to get the perfect setup is something that just doesn't seem likely anymore.

I think the problem is that in the old days, we wouldn't have been aware of "downgrades" as much because there was less personal computer usage, less accessiblity to weather models etc.

For instance, 20 years ago, the vast majority of members wouldn't have been aware of this coming spell apart from any mention on weather broadcasts on radio/TV etc.

Edited December 11, 2009 by Mr_Data

[glasgow-guy]

Thankgod the majority of us don't think like that otherwise we'd be all doomed.

it doesn't sit well with some people i agree. i dont want to move this thread of topic but not everyone buys into global warming end of...

To be honest though Paul it was only the GFS that was really bringing in the goods wit hthe intial easterly, the UKMO/ECM both only brought in half hearted attempts and so there was always going to be less confidence with that one.

However you are quite right it is somewhat further out and actually looking at the models they do look more dominated by a northerly outlook once you get towards the weekend I agree, of course its VERY different from the bog standard northerly toppler in that this time we really will be dragging the whole vortex southwards which will mean the whole flow should be a lot more unstable thnaks to lower heights, I'm willing to bet even a northerly would be loaded with disturbances.

I'm feeling more confident on the evolution today for the first time, with all the big three agreeing on general ideas, but as always details can change quite quickly!

Everyone should note they don't mention nothing other then overnight frosts past Monday and swiftly move onto the week after...that should prove they aren't sure enough about what will happen to make any reference to it, I think the Met office put the dates in that forecast specifcally to show they are focusing in on the weekend and not beyond as I've never seen them do that before.

"However you are quite right it is somewhat further out and actually looking at the models they do look more dominated by a northerly outlook"

you mention a northerly are you meaning a straight northerly coming down from the artic?