Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[keithlucky]

Jack, is the stuff out to the southwest now just comming into view on radar whats comming our way on monday, tuesday and wednesday

No thats as far north as the front gets waiting for the first serious snowfall of the winter coming from the north tuesday night, another front reaches us wednesday morning bitter cold -1 top temp.

[SLAMMER]

No thats as far north as the front gets waiting for the first serious snowfall of the winter coming from the north tuesday night, another front reaches us wednesday morning bitter cold -1 top temp.

the bbc weather previously showed snow all over the uk. Just now it showed a bit of snow in the south west and north east.

Someone should ban them from forecasting more than an hour ahead.

[mrmonopoly]

the bbc weather previously showed snow all over the uk. Just now it showed a bit of snow in the south west and north east.

Someone should ban them from forecasting more than an hour ahead.

LMAO , I only ever trust net-weather and even then sometimes they get it wrong but BBC are useless. Nobody can predict the violent nature of mother nature but net-weather get it right most times

[Cymro]

LMAO , I only ever trust net-weather and even then sometimes they get it wrong but BBC are useless. Nobody can predict the violent nature of mother nature but net-weather get it right most times

Net weather don't either in all fairness, the temps on net weather are far to high and according to them last night was ment to be dry, when we had 3 inches of snow.

[swales]

I think the best place is these forums for weather... come and read possible outcomes from members and then really watch the radar and read reports

Reading these forums and then nowcasting is what we should all do, far better than wasting time watching TV forecasts

Edited January 2, 2010 by shaunwales

[J10]

LMAO , I only ever trust net-weather and even then sometimes they get it wrong but BBC are useless. Nobody can predict the violent nature of mother nature but net-weather get it right most times

To be fair the BBC/Met Office are very accurate in their forecasts, I have been critical in the rare occasions they get it wrong (last Tuesday), but usually they are spot on, as they were Friday.

The fronts to the south of the UK will now not remotely impact us, all the potential snow is now from fronts and troughs embedded in the very unstable and cold flow from the North East, and nearly all precipitation will be snow, marginality has gone for the time being.

Net weather don't either in all fairness, the temps on net weather are far to high and according to them last night was ment to be dry, when we had 3 inches of snow.

Net weather automated forcasts are based on GFS, if GFS is wrong then the automated forecasts will be wrong.

In this case, it did suggest showers for Northern adn Western Wales.

When judging weather, everyone needs to take in all of the models, and use local knowledge. As an example Friday, NNW winds tend to do quite well here, so we knew there was potential for snow.

However, the weather is so complex, it is impossible to get it right all of the time, you only need to go back a few pages, to find examples of this, including many of my forecasts.

[AlexThe Great]

so when is the next snow event most likely for south wales ?

[mrmonopoly]

so when is the next snow event most likely for south wales ?

By Sounds of it monday night into tuesday and wednesday where its forecast for much of the day and night

It is my understanding then high preassure is comming which means much less in the way of snow, and cleear blue skies for the most of the cold spell

Edited January 3, 2010 by mrmonopoly

[AlexThe Great]

By Sounds of it monday night into tuesday and wednesday where its forecast for much of the day and night

It is my understanding then high preassure is comming which means much less in the way of snow, and cleear blue skies for the most of the cold spell

sounds exciting, u reckon that front pushing in from the southwest is gunna cause us any problems in south wales? cheers

[swales]

sounds exciting, u reckon that front pushing in from the southwest is gunna cause us any problems in south wales? cheers

I think it's forecast not to do nothing much apart from hang around that general area for a while? So no, it's not forecast to affect South Wales I'm afraid.

[DeepSnow]

Clouds coming from the east now, some breaks in the cloud. Temp currently 1.4c, there is still some snow/ice in shaded places.

By Sounds of it monday night into tuesday and wednesday where its forecast for much of the day and night

It is my understanding then high preassure is comming which means much less in the way of snow, and cleear blue skies for the most of the cold spell

I hope, if we do get any monday night, then its enough for a snow day!!!

[CRACKPOT]

Hi Guys,

I was starting to get a bit excited by this upcoming potentially 'severe' cold spell, or is it me and we are now starting to get warnings that things will be cold and mostly dry for us in South Wales and just odd flurries or showers to look forward to, in the short term anyway? We do not seem to be appearing in any of the warnings for snow on the majority of weather sites that I am sure most of you look at, of which Netweather is the best of course!

I have a bad feeling we will 'only' become extremely cold and snowless, while everyone else gets battered? The first attack from the north is precarious as fronts from this direction nearly always pass us by or become fragmented and do not get down here? Secondly, this south western attack is now going to only attack south west England extremities?

Are the Welsh going to be short changed again? I am waiting the cold to become entrenched and then hoping some troughs appear with our name on - but they do not seem to have any sat nav directions anymore to get up to us! Can someone give mother nature our area postcodes please - Jackone can you sort this please? Just a thought.

JK

Edited January 3, 2010 by CRACKPOT

[CLH the red dragon]

Edited January 3, 2010 by CLH the red dragon

[J10]

Hi Guys,

I was starting to get a bit excited by this upcoming potentially 'severe' cold spell, or is it me and we are now starting to get warnings that things will be cold and mostly dry for us in South Wales and just odd flurries or showers to look forward to, in the short term anyway? We do not seem to be appearing in any of the warnings for snow on the majority of weather sites that I am sure most of you look at, of which Netweather is the best of course!

I have a bad feeling we will 'only' become extremely cold and snowless, while everyone else gets battered? The first attack from the north is precarious as fronts from this direction nearly always pass us by or become fragmented and do not get down here? Secondly, this south western attack is now going to only attack south west England extremities?

Are the Welsh going to be short changed again? I am waiting the cold to become entrenched and then hoping some troughs appear with our name on - but they do not seem to have any sat nav directions anymore to get up to us! Can someone give mother nature our area postcodes please - Jackone can you sort this please? Just a thought.

JK

I wish I could.

As for Snowfall, looking promising for the period Monday to Wednesday, with fronts pushing down from the north-east. An occlusion pushing South into Tuesday (for once the warm sector it s to our west). and troughs pushing south into Wednesday.

Certainly some interest there.

[keithlucky]

You have got to have patience in these weather situations,look and the met office lacklustre forecast compare them to there own charts first monday night showers start over north wales, front comes down tuesday wednesday, We have some snow over the 2 days thats for sure how much who knows a couple of cms looks a good bet.

[Snowmadsam]

Just saw the bbc news forecast looking good so far so what's happening on tuesday and wednesday then some heavy snow?

IS it for all parts of wales or some parts?

[soupsurfer7]

There should be a long range forecast from the bbc today covering this week. Countryfile/Countrytracks

[J10]

Just saw the bbc news forecast looking good so far so what's happening on tuesday and wednesday then some heavy snow?

IS it for all parts of wales or some parts?

Most of Wales, NAE just updated (06Hz), looks the right side of marginal, unlike the front pushing down before Christmas this time we are NOT in the warm sector.

To be honest NAE looks very promising indeed, especially at T+48.

[Cymro]

Well I'm happy still have a strong snow cover going strong here and not budging and today is deinetly alot colder not even the sun is thawing the snow which wasnt the case yesterday. Another metoffice snow day here.

[J10]

Well I'm happy still have a strong snow cover going strong here and not budging and today is deinetly alot colder not even the sun is thawing the snow which wasnt the case yesterday. Another metoffice snow day here.

Snow does seem to be sticking around better today, Met Office Snow Day here, there is a nearby field still largely covered in snow.

[keithlucky]

Most of Wales, NAE just updated (06Hz), looks the right side of marginal, unlike the front pushing down before Christmas this time we are NOT in the warm sector.

To be honest NAE looks very promising indeed, especially at T+48.

Nice to see the weather warnings starting to come out supporting the nae 15 to 20cms are now being forecaste for parts of the uk tuesday wednesday, they must now think that this weather front more precipatation than first thought.

[mrmonopoly]

Nice to see the weather warnings starting to come out supporting the nae 15 to 20cms are now being forecaste for parts of the uk tuesday wednesday, they must now think that this weather front more precipatation than first thought.

Jack how do you mean it looks marginal, Can you be a bit more specific on what looks marginal

[Totoro]

Just saw the bbc news forecast looking good so far so what's happening on tuesday and wednesday then some heavy snow?

IS it for all parts of wales or some parts?

The further east you are the better, those in west Wales are sadly likely to see sleet or rain as there's some less cold air mixed up in the western side of the fronts heading south on Tuesday. Keep watching through, the track may change and if it's further west then that'll help.

Edited January 3, 2010 by Totoro

[Jamie.]

Just seen the latest BBC Forecast on TV .

For us the West on Tues/Wed looks good for showers off Irish Sea but by later in the Week, Wales has a chance with a front coming south over England.

They stuck their necks out and said constant snow for South East England Wed-Fri but told people not to panic .

Edited January 3, 2010 by Jamie.ed

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

As for the front pushing Southwards Tuesday i have just noticed something when looking at the fax charts.

36h:

here you can see the front to the north.

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax36s.gif

48h:

Notice the warm front develop on the western flank of the front, you can also see that the flow is not true northerly more to the NW. i think the warm front is due to slighly warmer air being pulled in off the sea over locations in the west.

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax48s.gif

Will check the updates later.

Edit: corrected text

Edited January 3, 2010 by SnowStorm(Jamie)