Tropical Cyclone Magda

[kold weather]

Over the last 24hrs a tropical low that has been moving slowly towards Australia on a meandering path has started to develop stronger convection over the LLC and thus has been upgraded to TC Magda. Some good evidence of outflow on the western side however the eastern side still looking somewhat flat due to shear. Conditions aloft look decent enough for now however I've not really had a good look at what is progged in terms of future shear so therefore I won't make a call on the future strength of this one, other then to say its got a decent structure to it and with a strong core seemingly already starting to develop this could become a fairly potent system, though the shear on the eastern side may somewhat limit its upper strength but we shall see as ever!

[Somerset Squall]

Definitely agree with the "we shall see" comment, I reckon Australian systems seem to be the hardest to forecast, Laurence in December was a prime example.

So anyway, we indeed have Magda. Magda needs to be watched closely, because one thing that can be said with reasonable confidence is the cyclone will make landfall or brush the Kimberly coast- current thinking from BOM is around Kuri Bay, though finer details will probably change. Future track is far from certain, and it seems that Magda could well turn back towards the west as it nears the Kimberly coast as the models are indicating a possible formation of a ridge to the south which could cradle Magda before it moves too far inland. I'd like to see where Magda tracks over the next 24hrs before commenting further on this.

BOM are being rather aggressive with the intensity of Magda over the next couple days and I can see why. Despite shear currently impinging on Magda, the shear looks lower to the south at present which is where Magda is heading. In addition, as Kold says, Magda already has a pretty good inner core and not only that, the cyclone is quite small which does put it into a position to rapidly intensify if shear plays ball and eases. I'd be getting quite nervous if I lived on the Kimberly coast right now. Laurence was a similar size and look what happened there. Shear was very low however, so I'm not saying the same will happen again but nevertheless, Magda needs to be closely watched. The same area that got hit by Laurence looks in the firing line so more flooding and wind damage to areas recovering from Laurence seems likely.

Edited January 20, 2010 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates guys

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

Magda has pushed quite quickly southeastwards towards the Kimberly Coast, near Kuri Bay. Intensity has increased to 60kts. Magda has made good use of the low shear and warm sea temps, but the southeasterly track has given the cyclone shorter time over water, therefore less time to strengthen. Magda is likely to make landfall by tomorrow morning, and both JTWC and BOM are prediciting a 70kt peak before this occurs.

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

Magda has now moved inland and made landfall this morning and is now east of Derby. Moderate shear and a fast track over the coastline prevented Magda from becoming any stronger than 65kts, so the system only briefly became a cat 1 on the SS scale. However, Magda has still provided a drenching to the Kuri Bay area and Derby, and further flooding rains will spread south with the remains of Magda as it dissipates inland. Magda's intensity has been reduced to 40kts, and Magda should open up into a remnant low later tonight.