Model Output Discussion

[Weather-history]

6th January 1994: Unexpected snowfalls to the north and west of London. The models reminds me of that scenario where some area gets an unexpected snowfall.

[johnholmes]

THat's the norm for winter.. but do you see the snow line dropping to sea level and moving south from

around next saturday as we pick up a slack ne flow.

Let's try and get the days before Saturday more certain before we look that far ahead.

[TEITS]

A tantalsing chart. Very cold flow across the UK with a LP coming from the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

Interesting weekend for N England if the 06Z verified.

[MR EXTREMES]

the gefs ensembles just show how marginal it is for southern england but always close so id be very suprised if something does not come along intresting week much better of the east and north.

[Harsh Climate]

A tantalsing chart. Very cold flow across the UK with a LP coming from the SW.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1921.png

Interesting weekend for N England if the 06Z verified.

Agreed what a fantastic chart! But Il believe it when its within 72h

[Snowyowl9]

If anything it looks even more marginal for all areas even scotland on this run..with most of england seeing just rain me thinks...looks pretty cold and damp and throughly depressing :winky:

Your reading different charts to me because they actually look that bit colder today.

And theres snow not just for Scotland.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_UTC/54_30.gif

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/54_30.gif

The coldest british winter since the early 1980`s continues.

[cooling climate]

The bbc/met office/sky news are pretty poor to be fair, we know more on here Id put my bottom dollar on them being wrong

I'm quite sure you are only joking hence the smiley, BBC agree at times, but Met office at short range

not a chance although they are bound to get it wrong now and again.

I again fail to agree with the GFS latest output and would prefer to stick with the UKMO output over the

coming days.

Edited February 14, 2010 by cooling climate

[J10]

The bbc/met office/sky news are pretty poor to be fair, we know more on here Id put my bottom dollar on them being wrong

The Met Office get a lot more right than we do to be fair.

As for next week, Going by the latest charts I do think that there will be some snow to southern areas for the early part of next week, as the latest charts seem to be upgrading the cold as we move closer to the event. While falling snow is possible, settling snow is another matter, as marginality is still very much an issue.

[MR EXTREMES]

Perhaps people ought to discuss the IMBY 'will it snow' prospects for this week in their regional threads rather than on here?

Back to the models - the ECM appears to be reverting rather back to its previous theme with colder air digging south on the back of the trough.

Yesterday evenings suggestion still applies then, with every chance of bitterly cold air with much lower dewpoints spreading south westwards from Russia and Scandinavia and setting up a freeze for the last week of Feb and hopefully push away the very marginal and messy cyclonic weather of the coming week.

the ensembles for oslo support this,

and it is very cold air aswell something to keep an eye on for sure.

very exciting month coming up me thinks,

well id say more intresting but exciting for some.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

A tantalsing chart. Very cold flow across the UK with a LP coming from the SW.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1921.png

Interesting weekend for N England if the 06Z verified.

I can see the low pressure being squeezed further and further south over the course of this week. As you said yesterday, this is overmodelled beyond about t120, somethimes even earlier than that. The dense cold air to the north is being undermodelled. It looks a bit like late December 1978 to me in terms of how the pattern may evolve.

If we remember prior to the high pressure taking over to the north east that bought the recent colder weather the operationals and ensembles wanted to bring the atlantic in with a ridge programmed from the south keeping the cold air too far north and allowing LP to encroach from the south west at an unfavourable angle. The same thing is happening here I think and the coming days will show the operationals and ensembles trend much colder as the heights to the north are modelled more accurately and cyclonic activity and extent is pushed further and further south

Edited February 14, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[TEITS]

the ensembles for oslo support this,

and it is very cold air aswell something to keep an eye on for sure.

very exciting month coming up me thinks,

well id say more intresting but exciting for some.

I do think we have plenty to look forward to for the rest of this month. This week and into next weekend the risk of snow will always be present due to cold air/LP being close by. However on a negative note im rather nervous about the HP to the S as this could cause LPs systems to track NE bringing mild SW,lys. I fear this is why the ECM mean has risen over the past 24hrs.

I agree Tamara about Dec 1978. I will be happier if the ECM continues with the trend and the ensemble mean drops down again.

Lewis so if im wrong why are the BBC/Met O saying the same as me. We need to cut out this nonsense about the SE bias.

Edited February 14, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[grab my graupel]

Folks, can we discuss the Regional stuff and the Media forecasts in the appropriate threads please?

Thanks

[cooling climate]

A tantalsing chart. Very cold flow across the UK with a LP coming from the SW.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1921.png

Interesting weekend for N England if the 06Z verified.

The chart at t216 is what I envisage to occur from the developing synoptic pattern

but with higher heights further south into Scandinavia and the vortex pushed further

south and a little further east.

The UK would then be influenced by a very cold to bitterly cold continental flow, almost

certainly the coldest of the winter.

I've trawled through the stratosphere charts this morning and I am as convinced as ever

that this is the synoptic pattern that awaits us.

[SP1986]

Having looked at the models I have to treat the outlook of cold/very cold with suspicion, I don't believe there's much on offering to suggest this. On first sight who would be blame for thinking a deep cold spell is on it's way however the (mean) cold is now shrinking incredibly fast back into the arctic interior, this is typical of the lengthening of the day and the powering up of the sun.

I think severe cold is beyond our reach, slight cold is possible but it won't make much of an impact I suspect.

[grab my graupel]

Obviously, my previous message has fallen on deaf ears, so I shall repeat it again

Can we discuss the Regional stuff and the Media forecasts in the appropriate threads please?

Thank you

[Snowyowl9]

I can see the low pressure being squeezed further and further south over the course of this week. As you said yesterday, this is overmodelled beyond about t120, somethimes even earlier than that. The dense cold air to the north is being undermodelled. It looks a bit like late December 1978 to me in terms of how the pattern may evolve.

GFS looks more like february 1978 but amix between the date you said,ECM is more like that.

This is we what want to go out in style a huge blizzard. then everyone will be happy.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00119780219.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00219780219.gif

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn2161.png

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn2162.png

I think the pattern will just stay cold though as you say.,and everything gets pushed further south.

How far south can the jet go!!!

http://91.121.93.17/pics/pics/Rtavn14415.png

Try this link instead,as that one was last nights 18z.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn12015.png

Edited February 14, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[lorenzo]

Monday afternoon looks interesting - energy from that nuisance low finally coming to some fruition.

Could see heavy snow events for the east coast. I guess it's still marginal due to the track of the outer edge of the low as to where the band will decide to move, but signs are of a decent event..

NE Scotland, most of East Coast Scotland at 15:00 hours moving into the North of England by Monday evening - every chance this may still be firmed up within the next 12 hours and the evening runs.

NAE Dam Line Moving South

Heavy Showers for East Coast

[Lewis]

It really frustrates me when the MODELS all but the UKMO are showing against snowfall in the EA/SE but people still go against the models, the GFS recently has had the highest verification stats, fair enough the UKMO has human input. But human input can manipulate things, and it's subject to a lot of error.

I think a lot of people in here need to chill out and see what happens, we are in reliable time frame now and with the GFS (especially) and skew-t, NMM models showing the same with regards snow risk (North of the East Midlands are in the prime position, areas South will see mainly rain,sleet, and if lucky a little wet snow.

The models are in favour for the above areas, with the EA/SE not so.

This is the model thread, so talk about that, not about oh your wrong or the models are wrong because of the BBC said this/show this, it's not the bbc thread! For media related posts go here;

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/12-weather-in-the-media-on-the-internet/

Lewis

Edited February 14, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Having looked at the models I have to treat the outlook of cold/very cold with suspicion, I don't believe there's much on offering to suggest this. On first sight who would be blame for thinking a deep cold spell is on it's way however the (mean) cold is now shrinking incredibly fast back into the arctic interior, this is typical of the lengthening of the day and the powering up of the sun.

I think severe cold is beyond our reach, slight cold is possible but it won't make much of an impact I suspect.

Stephen, there are sub -25C 850's over Scandinavia modelled though this week. That depth of upper cold air has been missing at this stage of Feb in recent years. Any reload of cold air from that sort of direction would offset the strength of the sun - which is indeed a factor of course

[Duane S.]

I can see the low pressure being squeezed further and further south over the course of this week. As you said yesterday, this is overmodelled beyond about t120, somethimes even earlier than that. The dense cold air to the north is being undermodelled. It looks a bit like late December 1978 to me in terms of how the pattern may evolve.

If we remember prior to the high pressure taking over to the north east that bought the recent colder weather the operationals and ensembles wanted to bring the atlantic in with a ridge programmed from the south keeping the cold air too far north and allowing LP to encroach from the south west at an unfavourable angle. The same thing is happening here I think and the coming days will show the operationals and ensembles trend much colder as the heights to the north are modelled more accurately and cyclonic activity and extent is pushed further and further south

I agree with you Tamara reference the LP being squeezed South throughout the coming week. My only surprise is that we haven't yet seen the models trend this way (other than maybe very slightly). I had fully expected that by now we would have seen a shift to that scenario reflected on most models.

[kold weather]

Having looked at the models I have to treat the outlook of cold/very cold with suspicion, I don't believe there's much on offering to suggest this. On first sight who would be blame for thinking a deep cold spell is on it's way however the (mean) cold is now shrinking incredibly fast back into the arctic interior, this is typical of the lengthening of the day and the powering up of the sun.

I think severe cold is beyond our reach, slight cold is possible but it won't make much of an impact I suspect.

I think Ian has made a very good point and its one I agree with, there isn't really a big threat of deep cold BUT you don't need that if you have a low coming in from the SW. There can be no doubt that northern places could well see some good falls and its something I said in the scottish thread several times last night, things look interesting...if anything though the threat has adjusted further south into N.England but needless to say I think there will be several frontal events this upcoming week.

After that and increasing hints of another attack from the SW, we need enough cold to sink south BUT even then if I was in the Midlands northwards I'd be very interested. In the south, its probably still very uncertain but certainly a risk!

Lewis I agree with you for this week BUT there is if you look at the models at least an increasing chance for us further south if you look at the models past say 168hrs, but of course its too far out...also for you worth noting the low between 96-144hrs is trending southwards, if it gets much further south your location will be pretty decent, though marginal due to the coast.

Edited February 14, 2010 by kold weather

[Lewis]

I think Ian has made a very good point and its one I agree with, there isn't really a big threat of deep cold BUT you don't need that if you have a low coming in from the SW. There can be no doubt that northern places could well see some good falls and its something I said in the scottish thread several times last night, things look interesting...if anything though the threat has adjusted further south into N.England but needless to say I think there will be several frontal events this upcoming week.

After that and increasing hints of another attack from the SW, we need enough cold to sink south BUT even then if I was in the Midlands northwards I'd be very interested. In the south, its probably still very uncertain but certainly a risk!

Lewis I agree with you for this week BUT there is if you look at the models at least an increasing chance for us further south if you look at the models past say 168hrs, but of course its too far out...also for you worth noting the low between 96-144hrs is trending southwards, if it gets much further south your location will be pretty decent, though marginal due to the coast.

I totally agree with you mate, as always you are fantastic with regards FI, patterns, signals/trends etc.

I still think FI is way too far out, i'm still not confident within T72-96, things will change all the time, run by run. For all we know come 12z we could be looking at snow only confined to Scotland, and even that would not surprise me given the current model outputs over the past month or two.

Changes can and always will happen.

[kold weather]

I should mention there is an outside risk of a easterly drift coming back in, in these slack patterns you only need a very weak upper feature to develop and it would totally change the layout of the set-up. I for one feel an attack from the SW is more likely but I think it really can't be totally ruled out either...

[snowmadchrisuk]

It really frustrates me when the MODELS all but the UKMO are showing against snowfall in the EA/SE but people still go against the models, the GFS recently has had the highest verification stats, fair enough the UKMO has human input. But human input can manipulate things, and it's subject to a lot of error.

I think a lot of people in here need to chill out and see what happens, we are in reliable time frame now and with the GFS (especially) and skew-t, NMM models showing the same with regards snow risk (North of the East Midlands are in the prime position, areas South will see mainly rain,sleet, and if lucky a little wet snow.

The models are in favour for the above areas, with the EA/SE not so.

This is the model thread, so talk about that, not about oh your wrong or the models are wrong because of the BBC said this/show this, it's not the bbc thread! For media related posts go here;

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/12-weather-in-the-media-on-the-internet/

Lewis

Hi Lewis , I have only just had a brief look at the models this morning , (Being valentines day and all that) But it seems to me there are a couple of opportunities for Snow in the SE this week . Wednesday Morning looks to be one of them (See Chart below) This is where all the precipitation ends up and stalls , Gfs have temps low enough for Snow and the 528 dam is building back in . Northern England including your area also looks good for Snow at several points next week . I am Surprised the METO have only got there warning out for the SE . If any where looks to miss out it is my area and across the Midlands and this is a precipitation issue as it always falls light over the Midlands and then Peps up again further South . I am not saying your wrong simply the possibility is there .

[kold weather]

The models will no doubt change quite a lot in this set-up, the LP has trended south and it may yet trend even further south before all is done, or equally it could trend back northwards. As for the SE, looking at the models as I said on the SE thread, I suspect what will happen will be one of those very messy set-ups where it will be mainly rain for some, sleet for others, snow on higher ground in heavier stuff and most may well get all of it!