Model Output Discussion

[Weather-history]

120hr FAX chart...where's the Azores high? Where's the Icelandic low? Whats happen to traditional zonality?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Remember that last night the 18z was unreal for the mids for sunday , monday and tue , now tho this..

Sundays event i much further north

also mondays event which last night was very good is a mainly rain affair so not much cop really ,

as for tuesdays event its too deep in fi and will certainly change .

[Nick L]

Yet another bite at the cherry for the Midlands on Thursday:

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100219/18/132/prectypeuktopo.png

Potentially an epic week for this part of the world.

[Cheese Rice]

Anyone get the feeling of Dejavu?

[kold weather]

NNM and GFS both show this precip as rain sunday pm anyway Kold. N24 mentioned rain showers in the south so even if the NAE shows it as snow, its a bit 'out on a limb'.

Yeah but to be fair the GFS is MUCH further north then the NAE, the NAE probably would be snow further south if it takies the track it wants to take though once again the time of arrival will probably make it more of a wintry mess...but if the NAE I'd pretty much be certain it won't just be rain given dew points and temps would still be on the right side of marginal...of course the GFS would be rain but thats because it takes a much more northerly track.

Anyway 18z is a *blockbuster* run, probably as good as last nights 18z, with one low after another taking nearly the exact same track...Tuesday-Wednesday is an amazing set-up for even more southern parts as the cold air floods back southwards rapidly and the precip remains strong.

For the west Midlands...40-60cms from that type of evolution would be possible because the snow cover from the first system would keep temps right side of marginal when the next system comes up...exceptional looking 18z!

Very wet stil lfor the south, flooding is a real concern if that run came off.

[Higher Ground]

3 channel lows between Mon and Thu! Just to see such output within the 7-day timeframe is impressive enough. To see even one come off in reality would be a bonus of course.

And a 4th channel low snowfest for Fri night? Insane!

(Caveat - very unclear what will happen in reality beyond the next couple of days, but these are extremely unusual charts to see, certainly within such a close timeframe)

[Edit: further caveat, didn't make it clear I'm talking from a West Mids perspective here, as we would be bang in the most likely snow zone for the modelled set-up]

Edited February 19, 2010 by Higher Ground

[Shunter]

Some classic looking channel lows in the offing for next week at the moment.

Trouble is the "offing" is Cold rain. Apart from a couple of days the last two weeks here has been bone chillin cold with rain and a few flakes of snow at times. Imo the worst winter weather imaginable especially if you happen to work outside. The ground is totally sodden in this area atm. The current "pattern" has become tedious, with another week of the same ( at least ) to follow.

This winter has been colder than for many a year but for most parts of the SE has not resulted in any memorable snow events. Time to turn the page onto Spring with better hopes for "snowmageddon" next Winter methinks.

[Thundersquall]

Could some minimum temperature records for late February be broken next week?

Looks like from mid-week there could be minus 11C or minus 12C in places from the Mersey to the Humber southwards.

Edited February 19, 2010 by Thundersquall

[nick sussex]

Hard to know whats going to happen next week with the output really struggling, the general pattern is consistent but trying to put detail more than 24hrs out seems very difficult.

The latest NAE seems to bring the next low in at a more favourable trajectory than its earlier 12hrs so IMO the fax charts are already out of date as the early timeframe makes a big difference a few days down the line.

The most favoured areas at the moment look like the Midlands, east Wales ,towards western areas of East Anglia, elevation looks a big plus. Again though this is taking the GFS 18hrs run, we still have to see the other models tomorrow morning and not go down the GFS snow train to disappointment!

[kold weather]

An incredible run for parts of the Midlands with a succession of lows all on similar tracks, horribly wet for Southern England.

I can't recall a set-up like this going on for so long even if it ends by the end of next week.

Its not al lthat surprising IMO Ian after having such a record breakingly long -ve AO spell (it was the most prolonged intense spell ever!) the jet was soo surpressed, now thats eases off the jet is trying to inch its way back northwards but it has a hell of a fight....

Thats why I made my call about having to look out for a big snow spell rather then a cold spell, though obviously the pattern has caused a cold spell anyway, in a good old 60s fashion!

Anyway I think thats just about the snowiest run for one location I've EVER seen in 6 years of model watching, if it gets to even a quater of that, we'd be looking at half a foot in some places!

[Geordiesnow]

Certainly a stonking run for the Midlands especially, quite alot of snow could fall if this run occurs as it is, which it won't as we all should know that by now.

I think somewhere in the UK could get a frontal snow event, whether it be in Scotland or the Midlands or even the South coast remains to be seen.

[Steve Edgefield]

People keep getting excited and posting the latest NAE charts when they seem as volatile as any model output at the moment. It seems like we can't be sure of anything at the moment until at least 24 hours prior to the event and perhaps even shorter than that. An unusual set up that's for sure - potentially interesting for some and very frustrating for others. What is confusing to me is why, despite the background teleconnections, we're still not seeing any sign of any northern blocking appearing favourably for our area. Would be good to have more follow up analysis from GP and others on this - would certainly add more interest for me instead of just posting the next NAE chart which changes as quick as the next GFS/ECM/UK model output.

[J10]

Trouble is the "offing" is Cold rain. Apart from a couple of days the last two weeks here has been bone chillin cold with rain and a few flakes of snow at times. Imo the worst winter weather imaginable especially if you happen to work outside. The ground is totally sodden in this area atm. The current "pattern" has become tedious, with another week of the same ( at least ) to follow.

This winter has been colder than for many a year but for most parts of the SE has not resulted in any memorable snow events. Time to turn the page onto Spring with better hopes for "snowmageddon" next Winter methinks.

Looking extremely good for those areas further west even in the far south. More glorious sunshine here today after a cold frosty start.

[kold weather]

Ensembles still going for the stronger and more northerly LP option however I don't think they have a good handle on the complex low solution at all but its a very fluid set-up and there is still every chance that it ends up being a Scotland event, indeed some ensembles take it so far north and west no where gets snow in the end!

Differences between the ensembles is just unreal!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Trouble is the "offing" is Cold rain. Apart from a couple of days the last two weeks here has been bone chillin cold with rain and a few flakes of snow at times. Imo the worst winter weather imaginable especially if you happen to work outside. The ground is totally sodden in this area atm. The current "pattern" has become tedious, with another week of the same ( at least ) to follow.

This winter has been colder than for many a year but for most parts of the SE has not resulted in any memorable snow events. Time to turn the page onto Spring with better hopes for "snowmageddon" next Winter methinks.

The main problem is that you're right in the extreme south of the country- therefore unless the lows bring their associated frontal systems across the extreme south of the country, you're going to see rain and sleet while areas to the north see snow. It's always the way with these frontal events.

The main difference for next week is that we'll see a more firmly established area of polar air embedded over Scotland and northern England, as opposed to the more heavily modified airmass that we've seen this week. This means more in the way of snow on the northern flank of the frontal bands.

No amount of "turning the page onto Spring" will change what the weather does- and even Kent isn't totally out of the picture snow-wise, although the favourite does look like being repeated snowfalls over the Midlands, perhaps penetrating as far north as N England and as far south as the Home Counties at times, but Kent may be just a little too far south.

[Optimus Prime]

Take a look at the snow accumilation from now upuntil Friday;

As much as 31 inches in places. What a joke. Rampers paradise.

[kent]

Ensembles still going for the stronger and more northerly LP option however I don't think they have a good handle on the complex low solution at all but its a very fluid set-up and there is still every chance that it ends up being a Scotland event, indeed some ensembles take it so far north and west no where gets snow in the end!

Differences between the ensembles is just unreal!

My sentiments too. The 18z is just another run and given the performance of model accuracy the ensembles for weeks now have been awful to say the least. Caution is needed and a few more runs yet to believe in any single models output. Especially the 18z which has been ridiculed by many on here in the past and labelled the pub run.

[summer blizzard]

Just veiwed the GFS18z and looks like a downgrade from four events to three due to mondays low being progged further south, however things are looking good for sunday morning, and also tuesday and thursday evening.

[guitarnutter]

Interesting charts!:

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

As unpopular as this will be, I think that the outlook in terms of the pattern is much poorer than it could be in terms of the background factors on offer. Granted it has been an excellent winter - but Feb 2005 in the second half of a poor winter overall that year had more promise than the remainder of this Feb shows (without the much milder and snow free europe that was evident in 2005).

I had thought that the factors that cc and chionomaniac were discussing earlier would squeeze this marginal low pressure complex away with a pressure build to the north coming south with low dewpoints and some colder uppers and heavy convenctive snow showers - but I will certainly concede I am less confident now that it is going to happen.

For sure there will be snow potential with these lows, possibly plenty of temporary heavy wet marginal snow in central and northern areas, but I am not sure that the snow fests as suggested by GFS in terms of their larger than life appeal will actually meet the reality. Episodic, very cold Spring weather is probability in the week ahead, but happening earlier during Feb instead - is as good as it looks to me.

As I say, a Feb 2005 pattern (but colder) is the potential that should be realised to finish this winter, so it would be rather a disappointment if we don't get one last proper upper cold blast from the arctic rather than this squib - albeit a fairly cold squib at least. It may still happen of course, but if it does, it looks unlikely to happen until further into March when it might. Still could be good - but will provide a Spring freeze instead, which is still better than the very cold Spring weather on offer atm, but that is all.

Edited February 19, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Hammer]

The midlands is almost the defensive batsmen attempting to deflect these lows that come sweeping in from the south west to protect this fantastic winter.

With much of, Wales, the midlands benefiting, as well as much of the east coast, more likely the NE coast and more northern East Anglia, with some spells of heavy snow, with those further south seeing plenty of rain. Further north seeing showers all of snow.

Edited February 19, 2010 by Hammer

[kold weather]

It all depends on the evolution really NCSC, however I have to disagree with you, what some of the models are showing is the chance for some exceptional snowfall, the only pattern that IMO comes even close to this one was Feb 07 and that didn't IMO have nearly quite as much of a threat as this does, IMO whilst the 18z evolution IS extreme, the risk is there for something that would be up there for either Scotland, the north or the Mdlands that would rank up there with the great snow spells...

Of course the HUGE caveat is we just don't know how this will evolve, because even at 48hrs out there are mammoth model disagreements and these are feeding down he whole line, so to have any faith past 48hrs is setting yourself up for a fall!

[Geordiesnow]

As unpopular as this will be, I think that the outlook in terms of the pattern is much poorer than it could be in terms of the background factors on offer. Granted it has been an excellent winter - but Feb 2005 in the second half of a poor winter overall that year had more promise than the remainder of this Feb shows (without the much milder and snow free europe that was evident in 2005).

I had thought that the factors that cc and chionomaniac were discussing earlier would squeeze this marginal low pressure complex away with a pressure build to the north coming south with low dewpoints and some colder uppers and heavy convenctive snow showers - but I will certainly concede I am less confident now that it is going to happen.

For sure there will be snow potential with these lows, possibly plenty of temporary heavy wet marginal snow in central and northern areas, but I am not sure that the snow fests as suggested by GFS in terms of their larger than life appeal will actually meet the reality. Episodic, very cold Spring weather is probability in the week ahead, but happening earlier during Feb instead - is as good as it looks to me.

As I say, a Feb 2005 pattern (but colder) is the potential that should be realised to finish this winter, so it would be rather a disappointment if we don't get one last proper upper cold blast from the arctic rather than this squib - albeit a fairly cold squib at least. It may still happen of course, but if it does, it looks unlikely to happen until further into March when it might. Still could be good - but will provide a Spring freeze instead, which is still better than the very cold Spring weather on offer atm, but that is all.

I somehow feel this post above may have a little bit of bitterness as Kent might not be in the firing line but i do agree with you in a sence, i prefer a nice convective Northerly/easterly than having this sort of set up as snow will be more reliable whilst in this set up, its either heavy snow/rain. I'm sure for those who are fortunate to get the snow, they won't care and who can blame them, i know i won't.

I like you, hope we get at least one more proper cold set up before the main attention goes to more warm weather.

Anyways, whatever the set up, somewhere could see huge amounts of snow and Scotland could easily be the place to be on some runs, whilst on other runs, it may be further south etc. 18Z is probably one of the more extreme runs hence the term "pub run"

Interesting period coming up however i feel.

[NorthantsSnow]

As unpopular as this will be, I think that the outlook in terms of the pattern is much poorer than it could be in terms of the background factors on offer. Granted it has been an excellent winter - but Feb 2005 in the second half of a poor winter overall that year had more promise than the remainder of this Feb shows (without the much milder and snow free europe that was evident in 2005).

I had thought that the factors that cc and chionomaniac were discussing earlier would squeeze this marginal low pressure complex away with a pressure build to the north coming south with low dewpoints and some colder uppers and heavy convenctive snow showers - but I will certainly concede I am less confident now that it is going to happen.

For sure there will be snow potential with these lows, possibly plenty of temporary heavy wet marginal snow in central and northern areas, but I am not sure that the snow fests as suggested by GFS in terms of their larger than life appeal will actually meet the reality. Episodic, very cold Spring weather is probability in the week ahead, but happening earlier during Feb instead - is as good as it looks to me.

As I say, a Feb 2005 pattern (but colder) is the potential that should be realised to finish this winter, so it would be rather a disappointment if we don't get one last proper upper cold blast from the arctic rather than this squib - albeit a fairly cold squib at least. It may still happen of course, but if it does, it looks unlikely to happen until further into March when it might. Still could be good - but will provide a Spring freeze instead, which is still better than the very cold Spring weather on offer atm, but that is all.

Given your locale, I'm not surprised you personally are not liking the look of the pattern shown. However the snow potential elsewhere, particularly from the Midlands northwards, should not be understated given what the 18z is showing. This run is really not a "squib" for these areas and you know it.

Also, unlike yourself, I don't want a Feb 2005 pattern. I want a really significant snow event to end the winter on a high. And the 18z gives me and many many others just that- not just a significant event, but a potentially historic event.

So I'm afraid I have to disagree on pretty much all counts. Apologies if this is not the most articulate response but I'm very very tired!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

It still doesn't take away the fact that the set-up is much more marginal than it could be. I don't mean comparing it with as something severe as Feb 1947 necessarily, which was a really proper cold version of what we are seeing atm, with that winter culminating in a a series of non marginal disruptive snow storms (until mid March) - but back to the here and now, relying as we are on heavy ppn from core low pressure areas to produce heavy transitory snow is not quite what it could be (without having to compete with 1947) Indeed just a rather colder version of 2005 would be better.