General Climate Change

[rob48]

Never thought anything different would be found. From all the thousands of E-mails and Rheims of data we get 2 sound bites that are paraded out of context by right wing bloggers and their ilk.

Surely only a fool (or person of the same leanings as the perpetrators) would find anything troubling once the situation was scrutinised?

As you say , over and done now and ,as we all know "that which doesn't kill you can only make you stronger" so in some ways climate science has been given a helping hand by the whole affair.

I cannot see a time where science will appear 'secret' or 'guarded 'in the future now that we've had this silliness.

For a while it even seemed like some folk on here were ready to be swayed by groundless accusations! I mean, can you credit that?

EDIT:

First it was a couple more glaciers gone in the U.S. national glacier park and now;

http://english.cctv....14/102400.shtml

4 gone in China's equivalent....

EDIT:EDIT;

Oh! and I'd go along with these sentiments reguarding the naughty folk who twist words....

Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at London School of Economics and Political Science, called for an apology from the sceptics.

"I think those so-called sceptics who have attempted to undermine the credibility of climate change science on the basis of the hacked emails now need to apologise for misleading the public about their significance.”

Have you taken it upon yourself (as if) to decide that they were all "right wing bloggers"?

Or do you have the, er, science?

[stewfox]

First it was a couple more glaciers gone in the U.S. national glacier park and now;

http://english.cctv....14/102400.shtml

Forget the comment about the glacier but ........

The first photo taken at an altitude of 4,506 meters on Yu

Long Snow Mountain, or Jade Dragon Snow Mountain, in November

2004 shows a clear picture of the magnificent snowy mountain,

while the second one taken at the same location in August 2009

shows a significant difference. [Photo: xinhua]

Now I am no 'expert' but comparing August with November for snow in the high mountains

Might be an idea to compare pictures that were taken at the same time of year or least in the same season ??

Edited April 14, 2010 by stewfox

[Iceberg]

On the other hand, if they hadn't been so determined to not release the data for scrutiny, the situation of the hacking and the adverse publicity it attracted would never have occurred.

IMHO all those scientists involved scored an own goal, the foundations of science rely upon data being analysed and results replicated by other scientists; to decline to do so, or make it incredibly difficult to access information will inevitably invite criticism and possibly accusations of fraud.

If anything is to be learned from this sorry tale, I hope it's a lesson in openess, from everybody in the scientific community.

Personally, I don't think any sceptic needs to apologise for forcing this issue out into the open, the requests for information should have been dealt with in an honest and timely manner. Had they have been, I expect none of this would have happened. Afterall, where's the big story in checking data and finding it to be accurate?

Hi Jethro, Sorry I have to disagree, the report said that government policy over paying for the data the should be produced was partly to blame and that the CRU policy on the FOI requests was essentially right, however how the back office staff dealt with it was wrong, this isn't the scientists fault and the report has not found that it was.

BTW I agree they should be more open and things need to change, but the skeptics have by and large scored a very large own goal here. The science is good.

[Gray-Wolf]

Forget the comment about the glacier but ........

The first photo taken at an altitude of 4,506 meters on Yu

Long Snow Mountain, or Jade Dragon Snow Mountain, in November

2004 shows a clear picture of the magnificent snowy mountain,

while the second one taken at the same location in August 2009

shows a significant difference. [Photo: xinhua]

Now I am no 'expert' but comparing August with November for snow in the high mountains

Might be an idea to compare pictures that were taken at the same time of year or least in the same season ??

I'm sorry I thought we were looking at the massive glaciers and not the snowline......I'll go and have another look......

Nope , it looks like a load of glacial ice in one frame and then a load of glacial moraine in the other......

(I think they'd have not bothered posting a piccie of snow in Nov and snow in Aug really....do you?

EDIT: I'd agree Ice, it's all twisty turny folk (with a funded agenda.....or just some kinda personal issue ) and problems with admin.

The science is proven good.

Edited April 14, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[MR EXTREMES]

I'm sorry I thought we were looking at the massive glaciers and not the snowline......I'll go and have another look......

lets say recent warming is largely from recent nino conditions.

what happens next is the question?

[Gray-Wolf]

lets say recent warming is largely from recent nino conditions.

what happens next is the question?

Welcome one! and welcome all!!! on tonights show we have.........

C'mon bb, get real!

What happens next is more of the same....isn't it?

Natural variation will either slow down or speed up 'more of the same' but it be ' more of the same' ( haven't we been doing this 'more of the same' thing for over a hundred years already????).

[Solar Cycles]

Hi Jethro, Sorry I have to disagree, the report said that government policy over paying for the data the should be produced was partly to blame and that the CRU policy on the FOI requests was essentially right, however how the back office staff dealt with it was wrong, this isn't the scientists fault and the report has not found that it was.

BTW I agree they should be more open and things need to change, but the skeptics have by and large scored a very large own goal here. The science is good.

The good thing is that they had been cleared of cooking the books, unlike another group which was part of the infamous Hockey stick. As for the science being good, that's a wee bit premature, as that implies it's all settled. But maybe some good will come out of this, an honest and open house is one which the IPCC should now be striving for. As it does seem that in general the scientists aren't the ones to blame!!

[Iceberg]

Cheers SC.

The science can be good but wrong, sorry I wasn't trying to imply it was settled.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Cheers SC.

The science can be good but wrong, sorry I wasn't trying to imply it was settled.

No Ice you weren't, I believe that referred to A N OTHER

Now, this Icelandic volcano development could get interesting.

BFTP

[Gray-Wolf]

Now, this Icelandic volcano development could get interesting.

BFTP

Yup, ridge eruptions tend to be benign (once the ice and snow is melted) but put out a lot of CO2, S02 out (wasn't there a major one in the 1700's that killed thousands in the UK and France?)........blows Icelands carbon budget as well

EDIT: This was of interest to me;

Setting the Record Straight on Colbert Report Debate

Last night on "The Colbert Report," Dr. Brenda Ekwurzel, a climate scientist with the Union of Concerned Scientists UCS), debated Joe laminate floori, an AccuWeather meteorologist, in what the show billed as a "Science Catfight."

Although the interview was primarily about Stephen Colbert getting laughs, laminate floori and Ekwurzel did discuss some serious scientific topics. During the debate, laminate floori made several claims at odds with mainstream climate science that Ekwurzel was not able to respond to directly during the brief time the segment was allotted in the program.

While some television weathercasters are skeptical about the role human activity plays in climate change, most meteorologists agree that human activity is driving global warming. According to an official statement of the American Meteorological Society, "strong observational evidence and results from modeling studies indicate that, at least over the last 50 years, human activities are a major contributor to climate change."

That statement is consistent with others from the National Academy of Sciences, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the American Geophysical Union, the American Physical Society and other scientific institutions.

WHAT'S CAUSING GLOBAL WARMING?

laminate floori claimed: "The drivers that have been pushing this [global warming], the Pacific Ocean being warm, the Atlantic Ocean being warm, they're all going to come off. So if CO2 continues to rise and temperatures continue to flatten out, which they've done over the past five or 10 years starts falling, we'll know…. I think we're going to find out that global warming is basically natural."

It is true that natural cycles, such as the Arctic Oscillation, El Nino and La Nina will continue to play a significant role in affecting the climate over the course of years and decades. But global warming is raising the temperature baseline on which they all operate. Since 1880, the Earth has significantly warmed as carbon dioxide levels have continued to rise. Changes to natural climate drivers, including the sun, volcanic activity and the cycles laminate floori cites are not significant enough to explain the jump in global temperatures over the past several decades. In fact, climate scientists would be shocked if the increase in carbon dioxide levels—which have increased more than 40 percent since the pre-Industrial era—were not raising global temperatures.

Global temperatures have not "flattened out" over the past five or 10 years. Such claims focus on short-term climate shifts and use particularly hot years, such as 1998, as their starting point. In reality, the past 10 years have been the hottest decade on record.

IS ARCTIC SEA ICE SHRINKING?

laminate floori claimed that the "[Arctic sea] ice has just returned to normal…. If you look at today's Arctic ice sheet, it's back to where it was two, three, four, five years ago…."

laminate floori's statement is based on a short-term look at Arctic sea ice extent, a measure of the area encompassed by the furthest edges of ice coverage. This year's maximum winter sea ice extent was particularly late, thanks to a cold spring. But over the last six years or more, the maximum extent of sea ice has remained well below the 1979 to 2000 average extent, both in the winter and summer. This past winter was no exception. Sea ice extent is still below average.

In any case, a better measure of the stability of Arctic sea is sea ice thickness and its persistence over time. The new 2010 melt season is about to begin with more thin ice than usual. Thin ice likely will melt quickly in the summer.

One study found that the overall mean winter thickness of 3.64 meters in 1980 decreased to only 1.89 meters by 2008—a net decrease of 1.75 meters, or 48 percent. And by the end of February 2009, less than 10 percent of Arctic sea ice was more than two years old, down from the historic values of 30 percent (see page 31 in the linked report).

This season's annual winter increase in sea ice extent is not evidence of an Arctic recovery. The National Snow and Ice Data Center concludes that "a true recovery would continue over a longer time period than two years … but also [a] return to [sea ice extent] within the range of natural variation. In a recovery, scientists would also expect to see a return to an Arctic sea ice cover dominated by thicker, multiyear ice."

Unfortunately, we are not seeing a real recovery.

HOW DO SCIENTISTS MEASURE TEMPERATURE?

laminate floori claimed, "By 2030, the Earth will be back down to where it was in the '70s when we started measuring with satellites….How were you measuring temperatures back in the 1920s and '30s? You weren't using satellites…."

Satellites are a relatively new way to measure the Earth's temperature. However, thermometer readings and "proxy" data derived from ice cores, tree rings, coral reef growth rings and other sources also allow scientists to determine Earth's temperature in the recent and distant past. It is not scientifically valid to dismiss non-satellite sources of temperature information.

Furthermore, satellites have provided valuable evidence that human activity is indeed driving global warming. Satellite evidence shows that the lower-level atmosphere—which contains excess carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels and forests—is expanding. The boundary between the lower atmosphere and the higher atmosphere has shifted upward in recent decades. This boundary likely has changed because heat-trapping gases accumulate in the lower atmosphere and that layer expands as it heats up, much like warming the air in a balloon.

laminate floori went on to suggest that we should wait at least 15 years to find out if global warming is human-induced based on evidence collected from satellite observations. Unfortunately, waiting for further evidence from satellites would increase the risk of locking in the worst consequences of climate change.

Human activities have pumped excess amounts of carbon into the atmosphere and emissions continue to grow. Further, natural processes that absorb carbon from the atmosphere are failing to keep up with the growth in emissions. For instance, as the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, it becomes more acidic. Combined with increasing ocean temperatures, the increased acidification diminishes the ocean's ability to continue absorbing carbon. The ocean is now absorbing less carbon from the air than it was just half a century ago. Thus, more carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels and forests is staying in the atmosphere.

Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have contrasted the higher risk associated with failing to quickly reduce emissions with the lower risk associated with taking preventative action. Their visualization details the higher risks associated with delaying policies that would quickly and dramatically lower emissions.

From the Union of Concerned Scientists (I'm sure we all know who joe laminated floori is even if the swear filter doesn't!!!)

Edited April 15, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100415141121.htm

So here we have the saga of the "missing heat" and yet another warning that it is out there somewhere and will return to bite us in the Butt. As you know my own money is on the 'Deep ocean currents' and some of the earliest warming will now be re-surfacing so we may find some of the 'cold water upwelling' not as cold as it used to be.

If you think of the coast of Peru what happens if you don't get any upwelling of cold ,nutrient rich, waters? Isn't the lack of it an El-Nino signature?

And what of the PDO if the bottom waters that rise to being in PDO-ve are no longer cold enough to trigger such?

We will continue on with our current warming trend but at some point and waters ,warmed at the surface and then subducted into the deep ocean , will re-surface (after fetching heat to the deep ocean first.

We worried about the amount of energy that will be left with nothing to do once the ice is melted (and can be spent on just warming) ,the same must be true of the oceans if less energy starts being needed to warm it (as the water is already warm).

[Admiral_Bobski]

Of course there is always the possibility (just a possibility, mind) that the "missing heat" is not "missing" at all but is, in fact, "non-existant".

Just a possibility, you understand.

CB

[MR EXTREMES]

Welcome one! and welcome all!!! on tonights show we have.........

C'mon bb, get real!

What happens next is more of the same....isn't it?

Natural variation will either slow down or speed up 'more of the same' but it be ' more of the same' ( haven't we been doing this 'more of the same' thing for over a hundred years already????).

id rather you did not try to adjust my judgment gray wolf.

i very able to look at both sides of the coin yours has the same on each side.

noticed the met o 16day forecast going for frost in may whether this happens or not is a wait and see moment.

i think the climate will start to balance itself out sooner than later things are intresting with summer comming weakening nino low solar minimum which gray wolf is once again falling.

plenty going on earth quakes volcanic eruptions low solar minimum intresting.

[VillagePlank]

You know it's funny.

If there were any some suggestion of confirmation bias, now is the time to see it.

We have just had a study, peer reviewed and published, that suggests (strongly) that sunspot count (aka sun activity) has some strong statistical effect on the CET.

Now, I haven't trawled through the posts, but, as far as I can recall, this is an anathema. How dare they! There is no known mechanism, there is no known cause - someone just run the numbers, as it were.

Yet, someone has postulated it, written it up; and others (peers) have agreed and published it.

And, yet, there is no comment here. Neither argumentative - and we can ignore the moderators, because harsh argumentative chit-chat is the bread and butter of science - nor indeed corroborative. Why is that?

Confirmation bias at it's best.

Edited April 16, 2010 by VillagePlank

[PersianPaladin]

You know it's funny.

If there were any some suggestion of confirmation bias, now is the time to see it.

We have just had a study, peer reviewed and published, that suggests (strongly) that sunspot count (aka sun activity) has some strong statistical effect on the CET.

Now, I haven't trawled through the posts, but, as far as I can recall, this is an anathema. How dare they! There is no known mechanism, there is no known cause - someone just run the numbers, as it were.

Yet, someone has postulated it, written it up; and others (peers) have agreed and published it.

And, yet, there is no comment here. Neither argumentative - and we can ignore the moderators, because harsh argumentative chit-chat is the bread and butter of science - nor indeed corroborative. Why is that?

Confirmation bias at it's best.

What study? Where was it published and who funded it?

[Iceberg]

Not sure I can see any link here between these two graphs (at least in the last 50 years).

Not seen the report though.

[Admiral_Bobski]

What study? Where was it published and who funded it?

BBC article here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8615789.stm

Published in Environmental Research Letters.

Who funded it? Who cares?

Paper can be found, in full, here: http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/2/024001/fulltext

CB

[Iceberg]

Right I've just read through the paper (very early on a saturday morning so sorry if there are any mistakes in my understanding).

The main premise of the paper's conclusions is that there might be an upto 8% chance of a maunder minimum over the next 50 year, if there is there might be a drop in Europe, not global winter temperature.

However they make the point that the SSN only really achieves greater DJF correlation during minimums, they propose a mechanism of shifting pressure cells, JS placement to achieve this.

They have found that SSN is only one variable of CET.

Correlation between DJF CET and SSN is low in recent years at only 0.23

I think what it's fair to say is that they have found that a lower CET is more likely during a period of prolonger solar minimum.

I don't think anybody would dispute this, I am not sure that anybody ever thought the lower CET temps during the little ice age where not caused/contributed by solar levels and the minimum.

A future maunder was always likely to reduce temps (by how much is more arguable and this paper doesn't really answer that or try tbf).

However this all remains very unlikely.

[laserguy]

From the same bunch of people who only a few years back were regaling us with tales of being able to grow bananas and stuff in our window boxes due to global warming...

http://www.dailyexpr...-Little-Ice-Age

Climate changists - I wash my hands of you,and the recent events in Iceland are a reminder of our insignificance and helplessness when Ma Nature shrugs.

[Solar Cycles]

From the same bunch of people who only a few years back were regaling us with tales of being able to grow bananas and stuff in our window boxes due to global warming...

http://www.dailyexpr...-Little-Ice-Age

Climate changists - I wash my hands of you,and the recent events in Iceland are a reminder of our insignificance and helplessness when Ma Nature shrugs.

It does bring a smile to my face LG, for years AGW's where adamant that there was no correlation between solar activity and global temps. Oh dear is that another wheel that has fallen off the AGW bandwagon. Still that won't stop the eco-terrorist demanding we cut all our emissions to zilch, whilst having no viable alternative to put in it's place!

[rob48]

Fantastic isn't it?

All that loft insulation, and where has it got us?

No doubt they're beavering away right now on new accusations to hurl to create a guilt-complex that we're suppine enough to be taxed on.

I'm enjoying the silence, while it lasts.

[Devonian]

From the same bunch of people who only a few years back were regaling us with tales of being able to grow bananas and stuff in our window boxes due to global warming...

http://www.dailyexpr...-Little-Ice-Age

Climate changists - I wash my hands of you,and the recent events in Iceland are a reminder of our insignificance and helplessness when Ma Nature shrugs.

Dr Lockwood is talking about a possible localised cooling that happens at the same time the globe continues to warm - I fail to see the problem with that.

Re the volcano, so far it's had little or no effect on either the weather or the climate.

[Solar Cycles]

Dr Lockwood is talking about a possible localised cooling that happens at the same time the globe continues to warm - I fail to see the problem with that.

Re the volcano, so far it's had little or no effect on either the weather or the climate.

Funny when it's cooling it's localised, but when it's warming it's Global. Well that's what they would like all us drones to think, however any evidence that supports continuing warming is sketchy to say the least!

[Devonian]

Funny when it's cooling it's localised, but when it's warming it's Global.

Well, when cooling is local that's what it is, likewise when, on average, the globe is warming. I wont pretend that isn't the reality nor would I if the opposite was the case.

Well that's what they would like all us drones to think, however any evidence that supports continuing warming is sketchy to say the least!

So, all the temperature record showing record or near record warmth atm are wrong?

[Gray-Wolf]

Am I getting something wrong here?

I thought the report just confirmed a change in H.P. systems (and frequency) during 'settled' solar periods. That warm air still goes somewhere (as it did this year).

Any extra 'oomph' in the Atlantic Hurricane season, and knock on in terms of storms/swelll/wind in the Arctic during the late part of the melt season (fragile ice and free floating ice) can be blamed on the heat that built in the Atlantic over our 'settled' winter.

An ice free Arctic will have a far greater impact on climate ,and distribution of air masses, than 'settled' periods of solar. If all we are doing is shipping cold plunges out of the arctic (over us) and warm air in over the Canadian Archipelago/Fram Straight and the Davis straight area we just loose our 'stable door' to the Arctic bringing the 'seasonal pack' ever closer.

Pretty soon our snowmen will just be JPeg's on a computer and we'll be looking at the true cost of the past winter via MODIS,IJIS, and NSIDC images and then we can decide whether the 'settled conditions' on the sun are a good or bad thing when they interplay with our warming globe.

Sometimes a first glimpse of what you see as a 'positive' turns out to be a true negative.

EDIT: looks like the oceans are already warm enough to have accelerated the water cycle;

http://www.scienceda...00416094050.htm

and also;

http://www.deccanher...ay-trigger.html

Iceland's volcano's look like they may be set to get busier over the coming years.

Sadly this current event is far to tidgey to slow up the current global heatwave.

http://www.terradail...ntists_999.html

Edited April 18, 2010 by Gray-Wolf