Model Watch For Tour 1

[Paul Sherman]

Now I know it is only speculation and Models on the GooFuS are subject to massive change this far out..............but tentative signs are looking Very Good at the moment, quite an active few days at the end of this week that were showing up about 5 days ago (Eg 10 days Time Frame)So a pick up in activity from the 22nd-24th April, after that another biggish system crashes through for the 25/26th April and looking at the Models the active period continues with a Strong Upper Jet from the SW From the 28th April until the 1st May atm

Will start to post Charts from Midnight tonight which will be around the T240-T252 Time Frame and will show 00z Thurs 29th ( 6pm US Time Wed 28th April )

But I am starting to get excited that Tour 1 could see some action at the end of April

Paul S

[dogs32]

excellent news Paul..

look forward to the charts

its going to be very active this year

Edited April 17, 2010 by dogs32

[Paul Sherman]

Ideally we want to compare the 00z Charts but these will not be available until the 12z rolls out so will put the up tomorrow but here are just 2 from the 1st few Chase Days

- 30th April

- 01st May

Charts subject to change but by early next week we should start to see some consistency

[Harry]

[Paul Sherman]

From the 00z Runs - Still looking like a Nice Jet Stream Pattern - Will continue to monitor over the next 5-6 days and Compare the 00z this time every morning.

Models Subject to Massive Changes at this Range

- Wed 28th April

- Thu 29th April

- Fri 30th April

- Sat 1st May

Paul S

[Tom Lynch]

From the 00z Runs - Still looking like a Nice Jet Stream Pattern - Will continue to monitor over the next 5-6 days and Compare the 00z this time every morning.

Models Subject to Massive Changes at this Range

- Wed 28th April

- Thu 29th April

- Fri 30th April

- Sat 1st May

Paul S

Nice work Paul and as you say always open to change as we get nearer but better than some of the earlier progs.

Tom

[Paul Sherman]

Okey Dokey Update from GFS & It is still looking like an amazing Start for Tour 1.

This has now been consistant for 4 days now so I will continue to look for trends, and it is worth noting that the days which follow look extremeley active with a favourable Jet and Low Pressure Set Up and ample Cape and Surface Flow.

Remember this will be the anniversary of the Paducah Supercell from 29th April 2009

Pat will remember this I am sure

- Nice SW Flow

- Nice Juicy Gulf Air

- Cape Up to 3,500jkg

Looks like an OK/TX/KS Set Up if it continues to show on the models

Paul S

[John Hanrahan]

That is nice isn't it.

I'm feeling a bit more relaxed this evening, Given that there is a very good chance we will all be able to get there for the start of the tours and hopefully tours 1 - 4 will be able to go as scheduled. I've a good feeling they will. Awesome to be arriving into a potential good setup also.

I was chatting to Tom last night and he was saying that Dave Ewald thinks tour 1 are in for an interesting time at the beginning of May (apparently he's gotten in to gardening too but thats neither topical or relevant, but I wish him well)

See you all soon, it will be a brilliant chase.

[Tom Lynch]

Ok well I can back to my check list again and yes the models are looking good. Dave was very relaxed about the situation (weatherwise) he say that the season has been drawn out and everyone gets a little bit of highs & lows (pardon the pun) I don't think that he will mind me quoting him.

"I think you will see some good stuff. One thing we have learned the past couple of years is that bad patterns don't last forever..... when they do break.....they break in a big way. Your first few days may be uneventful (leastwise the way it looks now.....models always subject to change)......but even if they are.....the break will occur during the first week of may and then you better strap on your boots. Or mud-boots as the case may be "

Whatever it is going to be a good trip.

Tom

[dogs32]

a messgae to the volcano...EAT THAT SUCKER..lol

looking excellent for T1...going to be great checking the updates from Spain..

good luck everyone...hope you see Puducha's sister because she;s not happy:drinks:

[Harry]

a messgae to the volcano...EAT THAT SUCKER..lol

looking excellent for T1...going to be great checking the updates from Spain..

good luck everyone...hope you see Puducha's sister because she;s not happy:drinks:

Ahem! Dogs....I'd appreciate a little more humility to the volcano, especially as you're not on Tour 1, LOL! (Though I do appreciate totally that you are due to fly regardless)

[Arron]

Looking ace Just hope we can get out there without any problems :unsure:

[dogs32]

Ahem! Dogs....I'd appreciate a little more humility to the volcano, especially as you're not on Tour 1, LOL! (Though I do appreciate totally that you are due to fly regardless)

going to top up on my Tan in Spain as I hear there is going to be bad weather in the USA

yes looking very nice the prediction's...I hope your prepared Harry..

your never look at a English ThunderStorm in the same way ever again :unsure:

Paul destroyed my love of the English Plume

Edited April 20, 2010 by dogs32

[Gorky]

I know that the model is flipping quite a bit in the long range but the 12z for Tour 1 today is an absolute peach. Some seriously moist air flooding in from the gulf for the majority of the week with a nice jet stream in place bringing multiple severe episodes. Charts below.. Take with a pinch of salt of course :lol:

Thursday 28th

Friday 29th

Saturday 30th

Sunday 1st

Monday 2nd

[Harry]

Hummana hummana hummana :lol: :lol:

Charts look like they are increasingly getting there - lets just hope we do!!

[Tom Lynch]

I have been informed that flights are now back on. I have not been down to confirm that fact but have recieved a phone call from Steve to say that we are getting a green light to go.

Tom

[Harry]

I'm not entirely confident with interpreting US weather charts and their accuracy, but I am very aware of the GFS ability to overcook things a week in advance! Is that even possible though? 3500J/Kg CAPE with Lifted Indices of -8 at MIDNIGHT on Wednesday 28th April???

If so, and that kind of thing comes off, we could be in for a real treat the day we land, providing we'd go off chasing the day we get there

[Paul Sherman]

Harry and Others

Remember to knock 6 hours off that chart you posted so 6pm Tx Time - SOS! Lol

This is totally possible. GFS Nailed Greensburg about 1 week out 3 years ago.

Last year we had High Cape / Low Shear Days with multiple days with between 5,000jkg and 6,000jkg Cape. High Cape is not always a good thing as the Supercells tend to be HP & Proflific Hailers and find it hard to produce Tornadoes due to lack of Low Level Shear.

But 1 thing is for certain if you looked at the 00z for Thursday (Eg Wed 6pm in the States and our 1st Chase Day) it was showing C Oklahoma up to C Kansas with a great Set-Up. It was also showing the subsequent 5 Days out to the 2nd May as have Chase Opportunities.

One bad thing is the Cape Bullseye Shown in your Chart is right over DFW Airport

They don't hesitate to close the Airport even with a Large Hail Risk so lets hope you guys are on the ground before the Weather comes in from the West LOL

Dont want you guys diverted to Houston

Paul S

BTW: To the newbs I hope you are ready for this and have some clean Underwear as that amount of energy in the air only means one thing

[Harry]

Cheers Paul!

That could be some serious turbulence assuming the airport stays open! I'm due to land at 1540 Tx time, slap bang in the middle of initiation time.....I think I'll try and throw back a drink or two on the plane to ease the nerves, lol

[Arron]

Everything looking set for a great first week I think I'm the only one on the AA flight which gets in an hour later than BA so I apologise now if we miss something on the first day because of me

[dogs32]

can I come along :cray: .... :lol:

real wish I could go on this..but had to stay with the wife's birthday this year

But Im so glad I am going eventually..

Looks fantastic for T1...

Edited April 21, 2010 by dogs32

[Harry]

Everything looking set for a great first week I think I'm the only one on the AA flight which gets in an hour later than BA so I apologise now if we miss something on the first day because of me

Nah, think Mikel Nimbus might be on your flight.

So far I've found nobody on mine

[Mikel Nimbus]

Hey Smokes. As Harry said, I'm flying AA aswell so I may be holding on to dear life on the same flight as you. Supposed to land at DFW at 5.20 from Chicago. Thinking about it, I hope that's not too late and the airport is shut due to bad weather. :s

[Andy P]

Nah, think Mikel Nimbus might be on your flight.

So far I've found nobody on mine

Harry

I'll be on the BA flight if your on that 1.

Andy

[Paul]

Hi all, for everyone on tour 1 - please don't forget to send back your forms and let us know your flight details if you haven't already done so...