Convective Outlook

[Nick F]

Those lucky enough to be near a heavy shower today up north, watch out for funnel clouds, often get them with these sea breeze convergence conditions. The one I got last June in Kent formed beneath a localised slow-moving storm on a sea breeze front.

Showers look even more isolated tomorrow, perhaps somewhere over Nern England maybe unlucky/lucky to catch one. Jury's out still on Sunday, showers look more widespread than Saturday and further south perhaps though subsidence still looks too strong across Sern and SE England for anything to pop-up.

[Harry]

Looks good for France early next week - while GFS is likely to downgrade somewhat, C France atm looking at LIs -6 and CAPE in the region of 2,500 to 3,000....lucky sods!

Here I think we really are battling the HP system. In a somewhat traditional setup, the HP would shift gradually eastward, pulling in further humidity and warmth, before weather fronts and a LP drift closer destabilising it all...how ideal

Atm, it is just HP grr! My punt for a thunderstorm this weekend (Sunday) would be the Lincs/Cambs/Norfolk borders, around the Wash! Temps around 75-80F (25-27), weaker subsidence, sea breeze convergence possible/likely.

[Coast]

Looks good for France early next week

As usual!!!

[Craigers]

Those lucky enough to be near a heavy shower today up north, watch out for funnel clouds, often get them with these sea breeze convergence conditions. The one I got last June in Kent that formed beneath a localised slow-moving storm on a sea breeze front.

Showers look even more isolated tomorrow, perhaps somewhere over Nern England maybe unlucky/lucky to catch one. Jury's out still on Sunday, showers look more widespread than Saturday and further south perhaps though subsidence still looks too strong across Sern and SE England for anything to pop-up.

that makes sense of my experience last summer when i saw a funnel cloud forming over the field behind my house! was very vague but it was exposed to the east convergence winds.

hope to see this again

Edited May 21, 2010 by Craigers

[Thundery wintry showers]

Any news on convection "up north"? The radar isn't showing anything bar a little anaprop here and there.

[Harry]

I have a strong feeling not to read too much into the Charts for Sunday and in to Monday (at this stage)...while we have a LP across the North trying to sink southward and bringing the wretched CF, we have a LP evolving in the bay of biscay and potentially moving NE, pumping further warmth and moisture N and NW across much of France...at present, we are cut off due to the CF zipping past...if it slows, it could turn interesting for some of us indeed I reckon...

I will be watching the next few chart runs with keen interest....(not sure if anyone else agrees btw, it's more a hunch than anything lol)

[Craigers]

Any news on convection "up north"? The radar isn't showing anything bar a little anaprop here and there.

the clouds here are bubbling up so convection seems to be evident at the moment!

[Marcus_surfer]

Seems like a cell is developing west of Aberdeen?

Edited May 21, 2010 by Marcus_surfer

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, some bright echoes are appearing on the radar west of Aberdeen now.

[TEITS]

Still looking favourable for my location on Sunday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs606.gif

If the storms appear it will be interesting to see if any funnel clouds develop especially if the sea breeze develops through the wash. I mention this because I once asked Torro if they had any explanation why the fens experienced such frequent funnel clouds, weak tornados. I asked if the sea breeze through the Wash was a possible cause. Unfortunately they failed to answer my question.

If the Met O continue to predict it being dry on Sunday and the GFS continues to predict storms then I will side with the GFS as I often do in these situations.

[BrickFielder]

I have been looking at the prospects for tomorrow and Sunday and its not the best in the world. For a start we are close to high pressure which usually menas subsidence of air and Despite the atmosphere being unstable with moisture and surface temperatures there is no strong trigger for convection.

What we do have during sunday afternoon is some low level moisture possibly in the form of a surface trough (not enough detail yet) and a low level convergence zone. The bottom layer of the atmosphere has very little wind although there is some turning at upper levels. There is no real dry air slot and upper level temperatures are on the warm side. Some chance of a storm mainly in the north along coastal and uplands regions on Saturday with possibly a band of storms moving south during sunday afternoon. Some risk of convergence zone weak tornadoes but it is really too early to tell.

Slight suggestion of a cap at 750hpa and conditions might be good for a reasonable storm inflow. WE wait to see how it develops.

[Harry]

All too changeable at the moment IMO to be able to be too specific - I think there is sufficient time for change to the charts...look forward to the next run to see how things have changed (if at all).

EDIT - We have action today though - Orange box issued by MetO for Aberdeenshire. Potent cells up there. Also, a line of cells erupting along the pennines presumably via decent orographic lift.

Edited May 21, 2010 by Harry

[NL]

Any news on convection "up north"? The radar isn't showing anything bar a little anaprop here and there.

Things starting to shape up now with some heavy showers developing off the east side of the Pennines through sea-breezes and orographic lift, also the heat has been a great help in development, not making great roads though very slow moving but hopeful of these moving towards Tyne and Wear... As Nick said earlier look out for funnels as wind conditions still favourable and if these storms mature could be very interesting.

[JoeShmoe]

Raining now here, big drops and dark to the south

Right as Fri afternoon beer garden time comes too :o

[The PIT]

Forecast pretty well bang on with the showers today. GFS over did it a bit and met office pretty well spot on.

[Harry]

Forecast pretty well bang on with the showers today. GFS over did it a bit and met office pretty well spot on.

Indeed - makes you appreciate how good the MetO actually are.

Even more so, when you sit there watching the Weather Channel in the States, them constantly banging on about how sunny and nice it is going to be in Kansas through the day and evening, while being partly cloudy overnight...when in actual fact, northern Kansas is slammed by severe storm after severe storm after severe storm (approx 6, which merged into a giant MCS at least 2-300 miles across) while C and NE Kansas is been slammed by an isolated yet massive, cyclical supercell which dropped 4.5 inch hail and at least one tornado which caused damage in two towns....imagine how upset the people in those areas were!!

MetO kick backside in comparison and I think it's about time those that bash them realise that

Sorry - little rant over :o lol

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS, with caution of course suggests convective inhibition in place, especially south of the Midlands and around the coasts e.g East Anglia.

Most likely area for a storm on Sunday is probably Lincolnshire and Cambridgeshire but if all goes well, much of the Midlands at a good chance too.

[Nick F]

Sferics showing on Atd with convection over NE Scotland and also over top of Pennines of North Yorks and County Durham.

[Costa Del Fal]

Dont like the 18z Much as it seems to be slowly lowering our storm risk on Sunday however, it has dramatically improved Cape for example at 18z this evening though there was no trigger for it really. Storm risk changes alot with every run so time for change right to the last minute.

[Harry]

Hmm...interesting GFS run! CAPE has increased for the NE of England/SE'ern most Scotland in the region of 300-500J/Kg, to around 1300-1500J/Kg CAPE, which is quite tasty. The significant downside to this though (as has been discussed to death) is the absence of a trigger...I'd be gutted living up there, to have that nice chunk of energy (by UK standards) with nothing to fire it....

Its times like this I really do not like this Country's climate!! Grrr!

[Harry]

Have done myself a little storm prediction map (because I am bored lol) which I'll compare Sunday night to what actually materialises.

Have put on there a small risk of thunderstorms for the NE tomorrow, as I think there is a slim chance rather than no chance. Firm emphasis on Sunday still for N EA and Cambs/Lincs area (for now)

Edited May 21, 2010 by Harry

[staplehurst]

Fingers crossed for Norwich on Sunday evening then

[icbinb]

It looks promising, but I mustn't get my hopes up. Sixteen days without a storm now. I'm chomping at the bit!

[Noctilucid]

Theres bound to be one or two unexpected local features, sea breeze fronts, convergence or forcing from hills, I reckon at least a very local area will get a good drenching at some point, rather like today.

Edited May 22, 2010 by jshaw

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS really bringing Cape Levels etc down to more sensible levels. It suggests no precip for the West and all out to NE England mainly.

Im not too fussed as it will mean we can enjoy another completely dry and hot day here. :lol: