Convective Outlook

[Mesoscale]

Temp just reached 30.3C in the sun with no breeze im cooking!!

still no clouds but id rather it be sunny without clouds if there isn't a good chance of a storm.

I was looking through the ESTOFEX archives and the last time we had a high risk was on the 26th october 2002!

Hopefully this year is our year!

[A.J]

nice storm breaking out somewhere near Berwick on the Sco/Eng border...Nice cluster of sferics...

A few towers trying to go up near my location (Stafford) Just the outside chance of a shower me thinks

[NL]

nice storm breaking out somewhere near Berwick on the Sco/Eng border...Nice cluster of sferics...

A few towers trying to go up near my location (Stafford) Just the outside chance of a shower me thinks

A friend who lives 5 mile from Alnwick has just text me to say there was a few cloud to ground strikes and he said the bolts where straight as dyes. Doesn't look to promising here now, been pretty unlucky (if you like storms) with storms breaking out 40 mile to my south and 40 mile to the north.

[ANYWEATHER]

If you look at the latest sat pic and compare the surface winds you will see there is clearly a line of cloud associated with that wind convergence over England and Wales....Question is will it be strong enough to produce any heavy showers....perhaps not....?!!!

Edited May 23, 2010 by ANYWEATHER

[jamesbhx]

That line of convection around Stafford shows up quite well on the http://sat24.com/frame.php?html=view&country=gb loop. Looks to me as if its bubbling up due to a bit of wind convergence as shown on the GFS wind chart.

Anyweather - we seem to be from almost the same location and thought of the same thing at the same time, how odd! (I've removed my posted graphic to avoid duplication of your post)

Edited May 23, 2010 by jamesbhx

[ANYWEATHER]

That line of convection around Stafford shows up quite well on the http://sat24.com/frame.php?html=view&country=gb loop. Looks to me as if its bubbling up due to a bit of wind convergence as shown on the GFS wind chart.

Anyweather - we seem to be from almost the same location and thought of the same thing at the same time, how odd! (I've removed my posted graphic to avoid duplication of your post)

Hi yep youre very close to where I live ,thanks for your reply. Looks interesting on sat but thats about all. Last time we had a noticible thunderstorm of any interest was back in 2003! Its got to be our turn sooner or later!!

[A.J]

Yep still trying to throw up some convective cloud here Ian, but alas probably too late in the day...Quite a shame really, as most of the ingredients were in place this evening...just missing the trigger mechanism ....

...Just looking at the latest sat24 visisat...hmm....might be tying to throw up something in the Welshpool/Ludlow region...nowt on the rainfall radar, but watch the sat24 movie...looks like an Cb with anvil has gone up....Similar situation also, to the west of London

[liambailey09]

Looking at the GFS its showing a risk of thunderstorms tomorrow, but confining it to a very small area

Will much come from this or will it be another hot, sunny, clear day for the south?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Clear here now, there was some cumulus building earlier. It's going to be horrid muggy night for sleeping, but getting cooler next week thank goodness. Any risk of a storm tonight for my location?

[UKVoodoo]

Im sat enjoyin watchin a storm flash away to itself well over towards the dutch coast at the moment, must be an intense storm as its frequent flashes :unsure:

[Coast]

So what do we think about next weekend or even tomorrow?

[Harry]

So what do we think about next weekend or even tomorrow?

Looks quite nice though bit far out IMO...if the models this week are going to be as topsy turvy as the week just gone, anything could happen.

Chances of an isolated shower or T'storm today in the South but I'm not expecting much - this another hot and rather humid one with a cool breeze drifting through overnight most likely

Looking v interesting a few hundred miles East though! Estofex Level 2 over there.

[staplehurst]

Very rapid convection here in Norwich, getting very dark now and generally overcast. Feels very muggy.

[Harry]

A few small Cu's beginning to appear over London - there is a small risk across the SE/EA area today (according to the radio and BBC) of an isolated thunderstorm or two, which does tie in with some CAPE and storm risk showing on GFS.

I'd say GFS (as has been lately) is probably a little enthusiastic, showing areas of E London/NW Kent have a 50% chance by 6pm this evening - I'd say nearer 10% at a push (though nevertheless will continue hoping )

[Crimson_Sprite]

Just startin to get a bit of convection in here in Nottingham in the past half hour or so, gone quite muggy. i dont have any CAPE potential, but my fingers are crossed that Mother Nature might pull something from under her skirt. What a shame to have a cold front come through without producing some severe storms... I really hope this summer gives us some storms here in Notts, last summer we missed all but 3! So close, but no cigar. Got cool photos of some nice clouds last summer though.

[Harry]

Extensive Cu field gone up C, N London - stage 1 complete in any thunderstorm development

[Stormyking]

Extensive Cu field gone up C, N London - stage 1 complete in any thunderstorm development

Any AcCas clouds up that area yet ?

I will be tracking this today as it might get a bit interesting hopefully

[Coast]

Hmmmmmm, heart says yes, head says........

Lets see what the 12z soundings say!!

[Crimson_Sprite]

Hmmmmmm, heart says yes, head says........

Lets see what the 12z soundings say!!

Hey Coast, not to sound thick, but on your map with the CAPE and tornado potential etc.., it says MLCAPE in gray, (which I am under) but I dont see a reference to how much CAPE that is? Does the gray have an automatic amount of CAPE? Like 200+ or something?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Very rapid convection here in Norwich, getting very dark now and generally overcast. Feels very muggy.

I felt a few spots of rain from it this lunchtime but it's clear now. Temperature of 19C and dewpoint of 12C at Norwich Airport, which probably explains the muggy feel- also the atmosphere is quite dusty (and, for once, not because of the ash cloud!) judging by the haziness of everything.

Indeed, convection chances look fairly high for the weekend but there is always a chance of shortwaves appearing nearer the time and bringing more "mellow" drier cloudier weather. Straight northerlies rarely deliver much in the way of convection at this time of year, but add low pressure and a westerly component to the airstream and it is still quite possible to get heavy and thundery showers with hail.

[Harry]

Any AcCas clouds up that area yet ?

I will be tracking this today as it might get a bit interesting hopefully

Regrettably no from what I can see - small Cu's is about the extent of it - nothing more glamorous.

Strikes me as one of those US type days - you're either going to get nothing (which I have a feeling will be the case) or one or two isolated but quite intense downpours or storms.

Definitely what I'd call HOT today - walk outside and the heat smacks you...shame its not going to last BOOOOO though it might put the mosquitoes/midges to sleep for a bit longer (nasty one on my leg from last night) and, early June looks like shaping up to be a hot one with potentially our first proper plume and decent thunderstorm opportunity!

Edited May 24, 2010 by Harry

[BrickFielder]

Keep an eye on Friday.

[Coast]

Does the gray have an automatic amount of CAPE? Like 200+ or something?

wikipedia.org/wiki/MLCAPE

The first parameter to look at is the MLCAPE values. Using MLCAPE in this situation is a better indicator of the instability of the atmosphere that can support severe storms. The lower 100mb mean is used to determine the level of instability near the surface since some of the strongest severe weather tends to be near surface-based. Of course elevated convection can provide severe weather, tornadoes are unlikely to form. The best way to get a more accurate reading is to use MLCAPE which uses the mean temperature and mean mixing ratio in the lower 100mb. So in the case of the April 9th outbreak, MLCAPE is the best method in determining instability. Shortly before the action started (21Z), MLCAPEs ranged between 500 and 1500 J/kg. These were not very large values but it still indicated the potential for decent convection.

www.severestormchase.com

I think there is some stuff in the learning area as well, but I haven't trawled that recently.

NW Extra's Skew T's, indicate the CAPE and Lifted Index forecasts over a number of locations for this afternoon don't seem to be conducive to storms. Typically for me:

Still waiting for the 12z details.

Lets start a fresh one over here!!!: forum.netweather.tv/convective-outlook