Convective Outlook

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looks like the subsequent northerly isn't going to deliver much- even the GFS runs that have shown the Scandinavian Low migrate SW towards Britain have shown only light-moderate showers, and it looks more likely that the low will stay a fair way away, leaving just isolated light showers at the most.

Sunday has indeed seen the storm potential shifted further north to cover E Scotland and NE England- quite an unusual distribution for this kind of pattern! However I think it is subject to further revision on the next few runs.

[NUT]

Looks as if it's kicked off again in NE Scotland.

[Harry]

Looks as if it's kicked off again in NE Scotland.

LOL - 'kicked off' lends itself to a new definition to the word hyperbole

Those very brief showers lasted all of 30 minutes and produced little more than odd drops by the looks of things :blink:

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS actually seems to be increasing potential tomorrow by increasing Cape once again and precip slightly. Main risk always over in the NE though but wouldnt rule out the odd Isolated shower further West. GFS suggests the opportunity is very late afternoon/early evening.

NMM also showing some showers in the E tomorrow and even one or two in E Wales/W Mids but i doubt its that accurate even though its showed that for the last two runs. Lol. :lol:

Overall, its mainly just the NE if there will be any storms tomorrow.

Edited May 22, 2010 by Blizzards

[gottolovethisweather]

GFS actually seems to be increasing potential tomorrow by increasing Cape once again and precip slightly. Main risk always over in the NE though but wouldnt rule out the odd Isolated shower further West. GFS suggests the opportunity is very late afternoon/early evening.

NMM also showing some showers in the E tomorrow and even one or two in E Wales/W Mids but i doubt its that accurate even though its showed that for the last two runs. Lol.

Overall, its mainly just the NE if there will be any storms tomorrow.

Hi there,

Interestingly the latest NW radar shows something "kicking off" in the south-west approaches or is it anaprop? Either way it could be still yet be interesting tomorrow even the model outputs don't suggest much.

Cheers

STORMBOY

[Costa Del Fal]

Hi there,

Interestingly the latest NW radar shows something "kicking off" in the south-west approaches or is it anaprop? Either way it could be still yet be interesting tomorrow even the model outputs don't suggest much.

Cheers

STORMBOY

Satellite does show some cloud off Cornwall but nothing convective.

[gottolovethisweather]

Satellite does show some cloud off Cornwall but nothing convective.

maybe something good will come from it for some lucky folks before the chill down but methinks the hot stuff will return sooner than most think, just gut feeling! 24.8c today here in Newbury and 24.1c yesterday so the 2 hottest days of the year.

Cheers

STORMBOY

[Costa Del Fal]

NMM keen to pick out a small area of more unstable conditions around East Wales/West Mids tomorrow. Still showing a couple of showers there for tomorrow. Would laugh and be very surprised if it was right as well. Lol. Even with the NMM the risk is still very low i think.

[NL]

ESTOFEX have issued a thunderstorm chance (15%) for quite a large area of mainland Britain, Scotland and the NE of England in particular and have warned if any storms can develop (cloudiness being an issue) storms should become well organized multicells capable of marginally severe hail and isolated wind gusts. Would have issued a level 1 if storm coverage wasn't so uncertain.

http://www.estofex.org/

[Lynxus]

Crystal clear sunny day around here.

Just had a week off so have been lucky with the weather, Would be awesome to see it go out with a boom.

[The PIT]

ESTOFEX have issued a thunderstorm chance (15%) for quite a large area of mainland Britain, Scotland and the NE of England in particular and have warned if any storms can develop (cloudiness being an issue) storms should become well organized multicells capable of marginally severe hail and isolated wind gusts. Would have issued a level 1 if storm coverage wasn't so uncertain.

http://www.estofex.org/

Just for Scotland and NE England mate no where else.

[NL]

Just for Scotland and NE England mate no where else.

Thats what i said..Scotland NE england.... 15% Td's covers quite an extensive part of mainland Britain, Look at the graphic...

[staplehurst]

A little bit of an improvement for Norwich this evening on the past 2 GFS runs, will watch eagerly this afternoon

[Craigers]

clouds building from the Pennines and transferring eastwards! could get interesting if convection keeps building

[Ross B]

Mostly clear blue skies here with some cumulus starting to build. Oh and its 21c already which is good news, lets hope we get our first storm of the year today!

[Carl]

Couple of images if just taken looking into the Tyne valley and out towards the North Sea.

These look to me like they could beef up, in fact, i can see them growing as i watch. Any thoughts?

[Craigers]

Couple of images if just taken looking into the Tyne valley and out towards the North Sea.

These look to me like they could beef up, in fact, i can see them growing as i watch. Any thoughts?

its getting like that here in southyorkshire with a westerly breeze picking up! id say around 4pm things will start getting interesting!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I have my doubts that anything will sprout up in the Norwich area since there isn't a single cloud in the sky at the moment. However, Norwich is in with a shout of being the hottest place in the country today (!) which is notable in itself.

Interesting cumulonimbus clouds posted above- I think we should see some heavy downpours taking off over Tyne and Wear if that keeps up.

[Carl]

I have my doubts that anything will sprout up in the Norwich area since there isn't a single cloud in the sky at the moment. However, Norwich is in with a shout of being the hottest place in the country today (!) which is notable in itself.

Interesting cumulonimbus clouds posted above- I think we should see some heavy downpours taking off over Tyne and Wear if that keeps up.

Cloud cover has beefed up significantly since 9am all of it appears to have the same characteristics as those in my earlier pics. I do hope so, could do with a good storm.

I'm recording 27.5 degrees at present and we're forecast for 15 degrees tomorrow. Thats a huge change!

[Mesoscale]

Scouting the sky but theres not one cloud in sight and its a tiny bit hazey.

I was hopeing for some storms today but i guess ill just have to keep on waiting patience is key!

Good luck to you guys up north i hope you get some decent storms today!

Edited May 23, 2010 by Mesodiscussion

[NL]

Quite a large cell just to the north of Scarborough going out into the North Sea, can anybody confirm any Sferics or hail associated with this? Does look rather impressive on the NW5 min radar.

[Stormyking]

Getting to that time now when I am now storm tracking but checking it out for the North as it looks interesting for you lot up North today and good luck to all of you .

[staplehurst]

Quite a large cell just to the north of Scarborough going out into the North Sea, can anybody confirm any Sferics or hail associated with this? Does look rather impressive on the NW5 min radar.

sferics there on ATD now

[NL]

sferics there on ATD now

Cheers, thought that cell would produce.. Isolated cells going up to the north and to the south of my location with Tees-side looking favourable at the moment.

[staplehurst]

Cumulus building slowly through the afternoon in Earlham Park, Norwich. Feeling hot in the sunshine but a nice moderate breeze cools things down.