Chase 2010 - Days 1 & 2 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Picked the Guys up on Tuesday 27th from DFW Airport and all got away fairy swiftly and headed North along the I-35, Our first night would take us up to Norman (Oklahoma)

Grabbed a bite to eat before Arron, Michael, Trevor, Andy and Harry all nearly fell asleep at the Table (It was 5am Uk Time for them) and booked into the Guest Inn (Norman) where they all just flaked out, Not a bad thing to do as they will be adjusted to the US Time almost instantly.

Models still look okay for at least 3 days of Severe Weather with the threat getting pushed East with each day. So atm looks like NE/KS/OK For Thursday, and maybe AR/MO On Friday and Saturday. Models not giving anything away for Thursday atm so it would still be a massive Gamble to play the Dryline further South and either bake in the Sun with the CAP Winning or 1 or 2 Lone Supercells firing up giving an amazing display.

Going to let the guys have a nice lie in grab some breakfast then head over to Walmart to get some essentials before finding something to do today, I dont want to stray far from the I-35 Coridoor for tonights overnight accomodation.

Below are the 2 Chase Vehicles for This year.

Regards

Paul S

[Tom Lynch]

Picked the Guys up on Tuesday 27th from DFW Airport and all got away fairy swiftly and headed North along the I-35, Our first night would take us up to Norman (Oklahoma)

Grabbed a bite to eat before Arron, Michael, Trevor, Andy and Harry all nearly fell asleep at the Table (It was 5am Uk Time for them) and booked into the Guest Inn (Norman) where they all just flaked out, Not a bad thing to do as they will be adjusted to the US Time almost instantly.

Models still look okay for at least 3 days of Severe Weather with the threat getting pushed East with each day. So atm looks like NE/KS/OK For Thursday, and maybe AR/MO On Friday and Saturday. Models not giving anything away for Thursday atm so it would still be a massive Gamble to play the Dryline further South and either bake in the Sun with the CAP Winning or 1 or 2 Lone Supercells firing up giving an amazing display.

Going to let the guys have a nice lie in grab some breakfast then head over to Walmart to get some essentials before finding something to do today, I dont want to stray far from the I-35 Coridoor for tonights overnight accomodation.

Regards

Paul S

##

Can't argue with any of that Paul. John says hi .

Tom

[Gorky]

Glad everyone made it out safely. Thursday sure does like a gamble. Amazing windfields, dubious moisture.... iffy cap... One of those classic days of playing north for more guarantee of some moderate action, or risking the south option and possibly seeing something amazing but more likely busting... Yesterdays NAM looked amazing for further south if the CAP could just break... and it was only a little short of indicating that being possible. It was lighting up NC KS through SE NE in the twilight hours, but I wouldn;t be surprised to see things more quasilinear or full blown squall line up there. You also have to take into account the following days play. SPC still have 2 areas highlighted with a northern target up in IL, and a southern in AR. Both offer reasonable chase terrain 'IF' the storms play ball and stick to the nice areas.

The southern area looks like a potential higher end event so going to far north tomorrow may affect your options down there. But that areaa looks more likely to be in crappy terrain. The northern option doesn't look as good, (but stil plenty chasable). The SPC bullseye NE MO/ SE IA/ NW IL. I chased there last year on the Kirksville day and once you are near the Tri-State Region, there's some nice flat farmland which is quite chaseable...

There's a lot to take into account and I certainly wouldn't like to be the one making the decisions

[icbinb]

Well I can finally relax as they let me in the country! After meeting with Andy and Harry at Heathrow everything pretty much went to plan. Took so long to get through customs that Arron caught us up in Dallas, and Michael beat us! Had a good nights sleep and raring to go.

[Nick F]

Personally I'd be keen to head north up the i-35 north of OK City but stay within north central OK, perhaps around Enid to Okarche area or maybe NW of there ... best wind fields for rotating storms (if the cap breaks this far south) will be in this area looking at the wind shear and SR Helicity charts ... the dryline should move across from the west to allow discrete storms to develop (cap break permiting) - before the cold front over the central High Plains moves SE and brings a linear squall SE through thurs night. There is though a risk that the cap may not break until the CF arrives overnight over N-C Oklahoma and that daylight storms will occur further north.

At least not venturing too far north, to say north central KS, you do not put youselves too much out the way for Friday's and Saturday's risks likely over Arkansas and Missouri, for friday's risk I'd be tempted to head to Stuttgart, AR to the east of the Arkansas River where there are some chaseable plains there - though it is unfortunately a long drive, so would need an early start/no lie in. Friday potentially has a better chance for tornadoes, and is well worth heading to that area to potentially see them. May turn moderate risk Friday too with better kinematics than tomorrow. Also Saturday you may not need to venture far from eastern Arkansas.

[Harry]

Just been to Wal-Mart, bought a red bull (did not sleep well last night). Tempted to buy a 16GB memory card, for the same price as an 8GB one back home - resisted though to conserve the spends.

Fine day today, strong southerly winds bring high Cirrostratus clouds - plesantly warm with the warm wind making it feel great, almost perfect comfort wise.

Got the weather channel on, who are talking about blizzards in California and the NE around New York county Looks like that Wintry low will be heading out into the atlantic in the next couple of days and prob towards the UK (enjoy )

Heading out shortly to play 'ball' near a local lake (Thunderbird?) and have some nibbles. Looking forward to the prospect of a v competitive bowling match later too!

No photos as yet to post, but will try and get some later.

[dallas]

Just been to Wal-Mart, bought a red bull (did not sleep well last night). Tempted to buy a 16GB memory card, for the same price as an 8GB one back home - resisted though to conserve the spends.

Fine day today, strong southerly winds bring high Cirrostratus clouds - plesantly warm with the warm wind making it feel great, almost perfect comfort wise.

Got the weather channel on, who are talking about blizzards in California and the NE around New York county Looks like that Wintry low will be heading out into the atlantic in the next couple of days and prob towards the UK (enjoy )

Heading out shortly to play 'ball' near a local lake (Thunderbird?) and have some nibbles. Looking forward to the prospect of a v competitive bowling match later too!

No photos as yet to post, but will try and get some later.

Weather looking nice via the webcam, was wathching last night, looks like you done a few miles

[pottyprof]

Nice to hear you're all over there safely. Looking forward to reading the reports. I'm hoping to be up and around in the early hours watching the chase cam.

Have fun!!

[Aunt Sally]

Hi all,

Glad to hear that you all arrived in once piece! I've been watching the live stream and it looks good (and sunny!)

Paul - the cars look very nice now but I suspect that they won't look that shiny when they are returned :lol:

Good luck over the next few days, I hope that you get some good storms!

Tammy

[Roger J Smith]

I figure the best placement for Thursday mid-day would be near Enid OK waiting to see if something chase-worthy develops in daylight to the northwest of that location (possible) or explodes around 5-6 pm closer to the TX-OK border in which case might be heading to Woodward OK to Liberal KS area for intercept. The difference between 00z and 06z (Fri) output on RGEM shows explosive potential through that general area and would imply severe weather near ICT by 06z after cap-breaking situation as late as 00z, so interpolating from that would seem that a track like Borger to Woodward to Pratt might verify for supercell development. All depends on when this fires relative to sunset, could be fairly close but good chances of a spectacular end of day event. At least trees won't be an issue in that part of OK.

[MAF]

'noon guys. good to see you all arrived ok. weather looks good for you today, hopefully the chasing will pep up friday :lol:

Mick

[Gorky]

Latest NAM shows a small amount of precip on the KS OK border at 0z. It's gone by 3z though. Looks like it's trying to get something going but not quite there... Convection is much more robust through 3z in central KS through to NW MO. It looks like there may be a sweet spot around Hiawatha just before 0z with 0-1kkm SRH/Cape/Dewpoints/EHI all bullseyed in this area. Unlike other areas this does show precip breaking out with several daylight hours to spare. Just something to keep an eye out for tomorrow if the cap looks unbreakable further south... Still, the fact that the NAM almost breaks out significant convection is a nice increase on the other recent runs which have shown this to not be the case..

Edi: Looking at other models, it does appear that the NAM is a little faster than the SPC are thinking. They have the threat further west than the model I was looking at would indicate. They are probably trending towards the ECMWF which has been slower than most models more recently.

Edited April 28, 2010 by Gorky

[Jan]

Glad you y'all made it ok, I will be watching what goes on, as always, keep safe and I hope you get some good chases

[Cookie]

nice cars. and like above good to see you all got over in one piece.

[John Hanrahan]

On the way back this afternoon we stopped by the SPC and took this little pic of the group. Proper reports and pics tomorrow

[Cookie]

On the way back this afternoon we stopped by the SPC and took this little pic of the group. Proper reports and pics tomorrow

wow cracking photo mate, lovely weather as well

[Paul Sherman]

Had a cracking evening at the Bowling after a really nice meal. We were joined at the Bowling by James (UkStormchaser) who lives in Norman and Works for Channel9 as a StormTRacker!

Anyway the All Important Results of the 2 Games of Bowling

Game 1

-------

1st - Andy 137

2nd - James 124

3rd - Arron 121

3rd - Harry 121

5th - Paul 95

6th - John 92

7th - Mike 79

8th - Tom 75

9th - Trevor 72

Game 2

-------

1st - Paul 156

2nd - Harry 121

3rd - Trevor 112

4th - James 107

5th - Mike 105

6th - Tom 95

7th - Andy 94

8th - Arron 83

9th - John 60

[UkStormChaser]

Had a cracking evening at the Bowling after a really nice meal. We were joined at the Bowling by James (UkStormchaser) who lives in Norman and Works for Channel9 as a StormTRacker!

Anyway the All Important Results of the 2 Games of Bowling

Game 1

-------

1st - Andy 137

2nd - James 124

3rd - Arron 121

3rd - Harry 121

5th - Paul 95

6th - John 92

7th - Mike 79

8th - Tom 75

9th - Trevor 72

Game 2

-------

1st - Paul 156

2nd - Harry 121

3rd - Trevor 112

4th - James 107

5th - Mike 105

6th - Tom 95

7th - Andy 94

8th - Arron 83

9th - John 60

YOINK!!

[nsrobins]

Morning chaps. Glad you all made it safely and must be a relief to be finally on the road.

Cap-busting ascent takes me to the OK/KS border for 20Z with the bases lowering as the evening progresses.

[dogs32]

no ones as good as me :blush:

I will show you how to play