Chase 2010 - Day 4 Discussion

[NL]

Latest visible satelitte image certainly shows a mugfest, will be quite difficult to spot any tornadoes in that mess.

Another tornado warned cell. this time in Missouri

665

WFUS53 KSGF 302208

TORSGF

MOC153-213-302315-

/O.NEW.KSGF.TO.W.0008.100430T2208Z-100430T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

508 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

OZARK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

SOUTHEASTERN TANEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT.

* AT 503 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PROTEM...OR 26 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

BRANSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRIXEY...DORA...GAINESVILLE...

HARDENVILLE...ISABELLA...LONG RUN...NOBLE...PONTIAC...PROTEM...

ROCKBRIDGE...RUETER...SUNDOWN...SYCAMORE...TECUMSEH...THEODOSIA...

THORNFIELD...UDALL...WASOLA...WILLHOIT AND ZANONI.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE

DAMAGING HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

Edited April 30, 2010 by NL

[Paul]

According to gps they are in west africa at the mo......

Yeh, weird one that their system must have got a tad confused for a bit - have removed that entry from the database!

[NL]

SPC have added a new Meso discussion concerning the Tornado watch.

347

ACUS11 KWNS 302253

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 302253

MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-302330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0428

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0553 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX/SERN OK/AR/SERN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 114...

VALID 302253Z - 302330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 114 CONTINUES.

WW 114 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED AND EXTENDED EWD BY 2330Z.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED ERN MOST STORMS OVER BOONE/MARION COUNTIES AR

INTO ADJACENT MO COUNTIES AND FARTHER SW OVER YELL COUNTY AR ARE

TRACKING TO THE NE AT 35-40 KT. AT THIS SPEED...THIS LEAD ACTIVITY

WILL EXIT WW 114 AROUND 00Z.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THE STRONGEST

MOIST RETURN FLOW CONTINUED ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE BROKEN LINE

OF STORMS EAST-CENTRAL AND SRN MO TO NERN TX. THIS RETURN OF HIGH

THETAE AIR IS WITHIN A STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE

LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5

TO 8 C/KM/ EXTENDED FROM TX COAST TO IL ATOP THE MOISTURE RETURN

RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. STRONG SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL

WINDS STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING ACROSS AND EAST OF WW 114 WILL

MAINTAIN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING

SUPERCELLS. BACKED SURFACE WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS AR WILL CONTINUE

TO SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SRH 200-400 M2/S2 FOR A TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS.. 04/30/2010

[NL]

Cells to the south of the team are still tornado warned. The closest one is around 70 mile to S/SE, its travelling at around 35-40 mph in a NE/E direction, watch the windshields as its currently dropping 1.75" hail and tops are at 41,000 ft....45,000 and now over 2" hail....

286

WFUS53 KSGF 302308

TORSGF

MOC067-091-153-010000-

/O.NEW.KSGF.TO.W.0009.100430T2308Z-100501T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

608 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EASTERN OZARK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

HOWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

* AT 602 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO NEAR GAINESVILLE...OR 28 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AVA...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CAULFIELD...DORA...GAINESVILLE...

HARDENVILLE...PEACE VALLEY...POMONA...POTTERSVILLE...SILOAM

SPRINGS...SOUTH FORK...SYCAMORE...TECUMSEH...UDALL...WEST PLAINS...

WHITE CHURCH...WILLOW SPRINGS AND ZANONI.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE

DAMAGING HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

061

WUUS54 KLZK 302313

SVRLZK

ARC097-113-127-010000-

/O.NEW.KLZK.SV.W.0119.100430T2313Z-100501T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR

613 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

WEST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS

POLK COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS

SOUTH CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 613 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

WICKES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

ODEN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS..

Edited April 30, 2010 by NL

[kold weather]

Yeah its one of those messy days, I suspected it would be given the left overs from the cold fronts activity yestertday night, the stream shows that very nicely.

Very linear in nature now, I'd imagine the best tornado risk is now out of reach for the team but it wouldn't be the greatest display anyway thanks to the cloud debris left over, so may as well just get as good as shot as they can, possibly core punch a cell if they can intercept one.

[Gorky]

Tor Warning for that cell in Yell County..

TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTH CENTRAL CONWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS

POPE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS

NORTHEASTERN YELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS

WEST CENTRAL VAN BUREN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS

EXTREME EAST CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 612 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR

DARDANELLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

RUSSELLVILLE...

POTTSVILLE...

HECTOR...

JERUSALEM...

Also the Cell in Southern MO is looking mean as hell. Huge couplet and perfect hook echo showing, just south of Gainesville...

Roger Hill reporting a large tornado on that cell right now. 5 miles east of Gainesville, which would put it right near the community of Hardenville.

[NL]

Also the Cell in Southern MO is looking mean as hell. Huge couplet and perfect hook echo showing, just south of Gainesville...

Roger Hill reporting a large tornado on that cell right now. 5 miles east of Gainesville, which would put it right near the community of Hardenville.

Tyler Constantini reports that he and his companion stormchaser saw what appeared to be a large tornado perhaps ¾ of a mile wide maybe more but had a lot of rain wrapping around its the same one Roger Hill sighted.

[kold weather]

Thats an impressive hook there on that radar Gorky, without a doubt there is probably a sizeable tornado with that, 3/4 mile tornado would certainly be possible given that sort of hook...just a shame its so rain wrapped, esp as we head towards darkness soon, people had best be safe out there, esp if they are chasing it

[John Hanrahan]

Going to probably call this off today and stay in Springfield (Mo) Has been Misery in Missouri as Paul calls it. Always behind the fast moving Cells. But might just see what the cells hauling towards us do in the next 30-60 minutes

John

[kold weather]

Sadly the WRF was correct in placing all the best activity through far eastern MO, which meant it was always going to hard to reach, esp with the cells being so linear and so quick moving.

Big Wedge on the ground right now as the others have said, pretty hefty thing as well, hopefully stays away from built up areas.

[Gorky]

Shame guys.... Things are really only just getting started as far as the tornado threat it appears. I seee we have jumped to 8 tor warwnigns now. Monster cell in central Arkansas heading towards Clinton right now. They could do without another hit....

Ughhh... Hope that misses Clinton....

[kold weather]

Looks to me like a big tornado outbreak is quite possibly occuring right now, numerous cells in AR/MO now producing radar returns that look highly suspect IMO...

In fact I'd argue we may well be close to getting yet ANOTHER HIGH RISK warning when the next update comes out, esp with higher tornado risk warnings.

[kold weather]

Yep pretty certain an outbreak is now occuring, the rapidly increasing helicity has seemingly done the trick....

Little Rock also now has its tornado sirens on, due to a cell SSW of it being Tor Warned.

[kold weather]

Looks to me like a big tornado outbreak is quite possibly occuring right now, numerous cells in AR/MO now producing radar returns that look highly suspect IMO...

In fact I'd argue we may well be close to getting yet ANOTHER HIGH RISK warning when the next update comes out, esp with higher tornado risk warnings.

One final post from me tonight unless something big happens, but as expected...HIGH risk has been issued for C.AR...probably due to the tornadic outbreak occuring.

Also need to mention the severe wind gusts that are being reported, upto 70-80mph now and I'd guess give nthe linear nature of this system, a Derecho is a real risk.

[Gorky]

High Risk confirmed.. Central AR. Trying to find some streams from Little Rock. Tornadic cell will be entering the metro within 20 minutes.

[Paul Sherman]

Major Tornado Outbreak Unfolding out here at the moment. Confirmed Fatalities and Trailor Park hit with people trapped. These Tornadic Storms are about 70 Miles to our SE At present.

There is absolutely no way I would chase these at night not with the Terrain we have encountered today!

Paul S

[Gorky]

I'm still watching here. The cell which went through the east of Little Rock was amazing to watch on radar. Very small tight circulation.... but very intense and long lasting. It's just collided with another cell before it was about to hit a town which is good news as it has disrupted it's circulation. Plenty more candidates further south...

[Harry]

Hey all

Here's a brief, lol...bio I wrote for work colleagues and haven't got the energy to repeat. For us, it was a fairly depressing day, though not absent of some thunder and lightning, which is always something.

Woke up at 8am in Concordia, Kansas (KS) and set off South and East in to Missouri (MO) (more affectionately known as Misery, due to abundance of trees and hills, and onionse road networks!)

We left KS in hot pursuit of the cold front which brought the cracking 300+ mile line of thunderstorms last night, and which was separating us from the cool and dry air of 15C, and the hot and humid, unstable 30C air to our East. We trekked long across the MO border, past Kansas City towards C Missouri. We seemed however incapable of reaching the line of thunderstorms, which at times was shifting at 80mph north and eastwards.

We decided after approx 8 and 1/2 hours, and 450 miles of chasing that we weren't getting more than the few flashes and rumbles we were fortunate to get, so decided to head back west towards Springfield (MO). It was either that or endure a further 3 hour trek south towards Little Rock, Arkansas (AR) where some strong storms which were firing up over central and northern AR. As light was fading and it would be increasingly dangerous, we decided against it.

We got to our hotel, flicked on the internet and tv reports, and boy were we lucky we didn't head south! Little Rock was under a tornado warning, with reports of there being a tornado on the ground a mile or two south of the town. We then found out a small town in AR, called Scotland had been hit by a strong tornado, causing multiple fatalities and flattening half the town. The reports indicated that the dozen or so storms which had also fired at this point, and heading along the same line towards the same hit cities, also had tornado warnings on them! Considering it was dark, it would have been insane for us to chase them at that point, and were quite happy to be 100 miles north out of harms way. Still didn't stop us enjoying the flashes of lightning towards the south though.

Tomorrow we're heading south into our 6th state so far, Arkansas, where further strong thunderstorms are forecast, including the risk of a tornado or two. This time we are far closer to our target zone and much more likely to bag some storms - so fingers crossed We may end up heading into our seventh state also, Louisiana, depending on what fires up where.