Chase 2010 - Day 28 Discussion

[Nick F]

An upgrade likely to MODERATE risk for today according to a recent meso discussion. I quite fancy the look of NW Nebraska, good pooling of mositure/CAPE in this area near dryline/warm front triple point and 0-3km SR Helicity looks reasonable for tornadic supercells, so going for Bridgeport, NE for my target.

00z WRF

- DewP and SBCAPE at 00z (18z CDT)

- Precip. 00z (18z)

- 0-3km SR Helicity at 00z (18z)

09z RUC

- DewP and SR Helicity at 21z (3pm)

Upgrade to Moderate Risk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0744 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN

NEBRASKA....MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA

FROM ND AND MN SWD TO WEST TX...

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY

ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TODAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL

HAVE STRONG POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...LARGE/DAMAGING

HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...

...SYNOPSIS...

MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE

TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA PIVOTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A

LARGER SCALE TROUGH SYSTEM THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WRN STATES FOR

SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND

EVOLUTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE...TAKING THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED

75-80KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK RAPIDLY NEWD TO THE NEB PANHANDLE AREA

BY 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW OVER NERN MT

BY TUESDAY MORNING. INTENSE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL

OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH

THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A PRONOUNCED NEGATIVE TILT

AND DRIVES SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.

RESULTING SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY WHILE TRACKING ALMOST DUE

NORTH FROM NERN CO TO WRN ND THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARM

FRONT...CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM NEB PNHDL TO ERN SD TO CNTRL

MN...WILL RETREAT QUICKLY NWD ACROSS THE REST OF SD AND INTO ND BY

EVENING. TRAILING DRY LINE WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS EAST FROM ERN

CO/NM THIS MORNING...INTO KS AND NEB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND

THEN PERHAPS SURGING EWD ACROSS NEB AND NRN KS LATER TODAY AS THE

LOW INTENSIFIES TO THE NORTH.

FARTHER SOUTH...DRY LINE ADVANCE WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER DUE TO LARGE

MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE WILL TAKE FORM FROM THE GREAT

LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THE CLOSED ANTICYCLONE AT 500MB...A

WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL

BECOME ABSORBED BY LARGER DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DRIFTING

SHOREWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC.

...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...

AN EXTENSIVE AND VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR AIR MASS LIES IN WAIT ACROSS

MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE HIGH PLAINS DRY

LINE AND SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. PW VALUES OF 1.00

TO 1.50 INCHES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION AND LATEST RAOBS DEPICT STEEP

MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL INHIBITION/CAPPING IN PLACE.

INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH EARLY

DAYTIME HEATING AND EXPECT SBCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG WITHIN THE NEXT

FEW HOURS. GIVEN THIS DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND QUICK ARRIVAL OF

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS EMERGING FROM THE SRN CNTRL

ROCKIES...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO BE WELL UNDERWAY BY

18Z FROM CO/KS BORDER TO SERN WY AND PERHAPS NEB. STORMS WILL

CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS COMBINATION OF

CONTINUED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG ASCENT ACT TO OVERCOME

ANY REMAINING INHIBITION.

STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR

WITH MEAN WIND NEARING 60KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAST STORM MOTIONS

AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR NEWD TRACKING SUPERCELLS. MAGNITUDE OF

INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM KS TO SRN NEB

SUGGESTS THAT TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS

CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT COLD FRONT/DRY LINE SURGE

INTO NRN KS AND SRN NEB BY EVENING MAY RESULT IN THE EVENTUAL

DEVELOPMENT OF A BOWING SQUALL LINE WITH SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN WIND

DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

GREATER TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...FROM NWRN NEB ACROSS SD THIS AFTERNOON.

AGAIN...MAGNITUDE OF THE OVERALL FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY FAST STORM

MOTIONS AROUND 50KT. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND INTENSE SHEAR

COINCIDENT WITH SUCH A VOLATILE AIR MASS AND FORCING STRONGLY

SUGGEST TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. EXPECT THIS

POTENTIAL TO EXPAND NWD INTO ND BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND

WARM FRONT INTENSIFY. A COUPLE OF STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK

TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST SCENARIO.

...SRN PLAINS...

STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM OK/TX PNHDLS SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE MAY BE

MORE SCATTERED THAN FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FORCING

FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL AT LEAST BRUSH

SOME OF THIS AREA AND...IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP MIXING ON THE DRY

LINE...A FEW TO SEVERAL ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ERUPT THROUGH

THE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELL HAIL/WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST

WITH STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE PNHDLS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TX/OK.

FARTHER SOUTH...GENERALLY WEAKER FLOW SUGGESTS MORE ORGANIZED

MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..CARBIN/ROGERS.. 05/24/2010

[Paul Sherman]

GREATER TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...FROM NWRN NEB ACROSS SD THIS AFTERNOON.

AGAIN...MAGNITUDE OF THE OVERALL FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY FAST STORM

MOTIONS AROUND 50KT. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND INTENSE SHEAR

COINCIDENT WITH SUCH A VOLATILE AIR MASS AND FORCING STRONGLY

SUGGEST TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. EXPECT THIS

POTENTIAL TO EXPAND NWD INTO ND BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND

WARM FRONT INTENSIFY. A COUPLE OF STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK

TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST SCENARIO.

Very Tough Chase today, We are starting in Colby Nick, so if we get on the early convection in NE Colorado and SW Nebraska we will blow the SD/ND Risk due to time scales getting up there.

Will refine a Target in the next 30 mins or so.

Could be a pretty violent and damaging day today out here!

Paul S

[Nick F]

Changed my target area to Bridgeport, NW Nebraska taking in account warm front and dryline triple likely to dissect this area.

[Paul Sherman]

Of course it would be entirely possible to get an early Supercell with Tornado and then blast North towards Valentine and the South Dakota Border Getting one under your belt early always makes for a better chase day and may even get a Nado on the Stream before Stupid o ' clock!

Getting the troops ready to haul out soon, very early start for us today, not missing this one after missing the only Slight Risk the other day in a month which produced those Picturesque Tor's

Paul S

[Nick F]

I think Colby is a good a place as any to target then just reajust to where ever storms pop up and storms will probably initiate in NE Colorado before drifting NE across Wern NE and the Dakotas, but best windfields for tornadic supercells look to be over NW Nebraska and the Dakotas.

[nsrobins]

Dramatic change in the last six hours sees a deepening trough cutting across the Rockies by mid-afternoon with the DL/WF intersection likely to be the focus for sig tors but watch those storm speeds!

[paul - stormchase]

We're on the road - big day today, risk starts early (around 6pm uk time), then it's a long haul tracking them northeast with a major tornado outbreak a possibility.

Streaming is live already:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

Will be updating twitter through the day too for those who use that:

http://twitter.com/Netweather

[Nick F]

Looking forward to it, just hope mobile coverage holds up across NW Nebraska away from the interstate, because it is rather under-populated that area with small settlements that are few and far between over the Sand Hills of that area.

[paul - stormchase]

Cheers Nick, yeh fingers crossed on the mobile signal - will be doing my best to keep the streaming going and nurse it through any periods of weak signal.

[nsrobins]

Cheers Nick, yeh fingers crossed on the mobile signal - will be doing my best to keep the streaming going and nurse it through any periods of weak signal.

What are your techniques - smiling sweetly at it or just plain old verbal abuse?

I presume the Vortex circus will be on the road for this one - best not get stuck behind them on one of those Nebraska dirt tracks.

[paul - stormchase]

lol, something like that neil We have a couple of connections we can switch between and can cajole the connection manager a bit to get it to reconnect a bit quicker etc!

[NL]

Not to far away from the recent MD.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0688

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1044 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...SW NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241544Z - 241715Z

A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST INTO

THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN CO...WRN KS AND WRN NEB. LARGE HAIL WILL

BE LIKELY AS STORMS INTENSIFY. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED

ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX

ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NE TX PANHANDLE AND OK

PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH

IN FAR SE CO WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS ANALYZING MODERATE

INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THE

CELL JUST SOUTH OF SPRINGFIELD CO IS LOCATED ON THE ERN SIDE OF A 65

TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET WHICH IS CREATING STRONG ENOUGH VERTICAL

SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER STORM IS INITIATING NEAR

LIMON CO WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR AND

STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAN FURTHER SOUTH. THIS ENVIRONMENT

SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN NE CO OVER THE NEXT HOUR

WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. BY THIS

AFTERNOON...SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP A BROKEN LINE OF

DISCRETE STORMS FROM NE CO AND WRN NEB EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS WRN KS

WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS STRONG SUGGESTING THE

TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 05/24/2010

[nsrobins]

I expect initiation just ahead of the steep DL bulge and inside the warm sector around Lake McConaughty, NE around 19Z. These cells will rapidly move into a very healthy shear environment and to catch these maybe somewhere on the I83 (Sand Hill country).

Edit: Just seen the MD and see initiation is underway already!

Edited May 24, 2010 by nsrobins

[NL]

Tornado watch issued...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 212

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1150 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN COLORADO

WESTERN KANSAS

EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA

THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

THE TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL 800

PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF IMPERIAL

NEBRASKA TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF AMARILLO TEXAS. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING ALONG

THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO THE WRN TX

PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS EWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN

EJECTING NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM CO/NRN NM...AND

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE AS SURFACE HEATING

ERODES CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN AN ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE

ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR A BROKEN BAND OF

SUPERCELLS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER INITIATION...WITH THE

POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. LATER THIS

AFTERNOON/EVENING...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH

INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

[NL]

Another Tornado watch.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 213

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1120 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN NEBRASKA

WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1120 AM UNTIL 800

PM MDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF

MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SIDNEY

NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 212...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS JUST BEGINNING ACROSS

EXTREME NE CO/SE WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION WILL

LIKELY EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG

VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...IN ADVANCE OF A NEGATIVE

TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING NNEWD FROM CO. THE

COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND ENHANCED

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT

FOR TORNADOES...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...AS

WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE MORE

INTO CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BY LATE

AFTERNOON...WITH THE ADDITIONAL THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

WWUS40 KWNS 241722

WWP3

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0213

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1221 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

WT 0213

PROBABILITY TABLE:

PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 80%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 50%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 60%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 50%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 90%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 60%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&

ATTRIBUTE TABLE:

MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0

MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60

MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 20045

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

Edited May 24, 2010 by NL

[pottyprof]

Dunno if this helps any..

TORNADO WATCH in effect for:

Arthur, NE Chase, NE Deuel, NE Dundy, NE Frontier, NE Garden, NE Grant, NE Hitchcock, NE Hooker, NE Keith, NE Lincoln, NE Logan, NE McPherson, NE Perkins, NE Red Willow, NE Thomas, NE Phillips, CO Sedgwick, CO Yuma, CO Cheyenne, KS DECATUR, KS Norton, KS Rawlins, KS

Maybe some tv coverage to fall back on if the stream struggles

http://www.nebraska.tv/

[Nick F]

Tornado warning on cell to west/northwest of Team, to the NW of Tyron. Moving quickly these storms and with limited road options in the Sand Hills of western Nebraska, could be hard work keeping up or getting near:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE

1235 PM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WESTERN HOOKER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

CENTRAL MCPHERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 100 PM MDT/200 PM CDT/

* AT 131 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SCHNICK LAKE...OR 13 MILES WEST OF TRYON...

AND MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MULLEN...EAST CODY LAKE AND HIGHWAY 2 MILE MARKER 170.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

[ian cameron]

Hi guys theres no way we can keep up with these storms there traveling in excess of 90mph so we are going to sit here and let the cells slide by us and we will pick them of as they race north

[MAF]

thanks Ian. wish the stream was better. i keep losing it

[Nick F]

John Wetter livestreaming a large tornado in western South Dakota north of Howes:

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=john.wetter&uid=84

Another livestreamer on severe studios was clearing downed branches from shredded trees across a dirt track in the same area, trees looked like they were damaged by tornadic winds, his stream is now off air though.

[Roger J Smith]

All of eastern Colorado now in 40-60 mph SSW flow of dry air which is pushing cells almost due north through western Nebraska. Looking at 00z prog, would expect this to accelerate with cells starting to show right-moving tendencies (veering more to NNE then NE direction with time) so would say extreme caution required today as tornadic cells could be a bit erratic in their movement and will continue to blast along at 60-80 mph. Imagine the play will be to let one go past to west, then circle south to see back end of next cell as it goes past. With the extensive dry flow there may be pretty good optics from this direction later today. Good luck and stay safe, gusts to 80 mph (from 190-210 deg) quite possible well away from CBs.

[Nick F]

Tornado reports so far:

Time  Location     County        State Lat   Lon    Comments 
1816  GERING       SCOTTS BLUFF  NE    4183  10367  (CYS) 
1924  9 SSW HOWES  MEADE         SD    4450  10212  STORM SPOTTER REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 73 AND 34 NEAR THE MEADE COUNTY ZIEBACH COUNTY LINE. (UNR) 
2008  8 SW FAITH   MEADE         SD    4493  10215  LARGE TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAITH. (UNR) 

[MAF]

some hefty hail showers about too nick

1924 275 6 W CRAWFORD SIOUX NE 4269 10353 GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL SIZED HAIL ALONG HIGHWAY 20.

[NL]

Image of the tornado near Faith SD.

[Gorky]

My target today was Faith.... Set off too late and missed the show. Not sure if this area is now to lined out to give us anything more. Lots of wall clouds forming but they are hardly rotating if at all...