In The News

[Alan Robinson]

A book review....

http://www.londonboo...om/lbr0061.html

That is alarming.

[jethro]

His blog makes sense. End of

Lol.

End of???? There is no 'end of' in any part of climate science, claiming that there is, is a fundamental part of this entire debate and why it continues to go round in circles attracting controversy after controversy.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/nov/10/wild-black-rhinos-extinct-iucn-report

If this is true it is a great shame ( both for the beastie and us for producing the pressures that took it out).

For those doubting mans abilities to alter the planet look st the current ,and predicted, rates of extinction and remember;

"Extinction's not just for Christmas........."

[jethro]

But it isn't climate change which has caused this, it's poaching. A human fault for sure, but nothing to do with altering the planet.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLamhmCYwX4&feature=related

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/246677/20111110/world-years-left-prevent-disastrous-climatic-change.htm

[jethro]

What a load of alarmist piffle.

[Alan Robinson]

[quote name=Gray-Wolf' timestamp='1320955949' post='2157748'

http://www.ibtimes.c...atic-change.htm

Edited November 11, 2011 by Alan Robinson

[Gray-Wolf]

Any excuse to play a bit of Bowie eh?

Why would such a body warn against it's own 'best interests'?

[jethro]

Any excuse to play a bit of Bowie eh?

Why would such a body warn against it's own 'best interests'?

More to the point, why would you help them peddle such twaddle?

[Gray-Wolf]

Jethro, why so combative?

The NOAA just posted last years Atmospheric 'changes' which brought us to 390ppm for CO2 ( and yet more rises in Methane and Nitrous Oxide) and so I feel it right that we should have concerns? . With Australia, on the same day, promising China as much coal and gas as it can burn the 5% increase ( during an economic flatline) in CO2 looks to be matched for the foreseeable future?

As far as I read we are also losing CO2 sinks across the planet and gaining CO2/Methane producers so the 5% CO2 increases may be augmented by further additions to that min?

Unless we see CO2 as 'inert' within the climate system then these increases (away from the 280ppm of pre-Industrial Earth?) must be a cause for concern ( esp. with some agencies post a 450ppm max for atmospheric CO2 if we are to avoid catastrophic climate shift)?

I am sorry you feel that such is twaddle?

[jethro]

Nowt combative from me I just don't think alarmism helps this discussion. End of the world (even as we know it ones) prophesies have a sell by date, in this case, 5 years - in 5 years time when it hasn't happened, even more people will switch off and dismiss the whole climate change debate as baloney. That helps no one.

There's a world of difference between reports like you highlight in the above post and the link you provided yesterday, I've never dismissed NOAA as alarmist twaddle but I'll stand by my dismissal of the other one.

[laserguy]

End of the world (even as we know it ones) prophesies have a sell by date, in this case, 5 years - in 5 years time when it hasn't happened, even more people will switch off and dismiss the whole climate change debate as baloney.

Over the years,various "luminaries" have been issuing timelines for destruction via AGW 'n' stuff. Their dates with destiny have been and gone and this is just another to add to the list. They'll still be spouting such drivel five,ten years from now while everyone else just gets on with it. Yawn.

[Gray-Wolf]

Nobody is saying that the world will end in 5 years ( only Bowie's song was doing that!) just a warning that we are now pushing the limits we have set for ourselves?

To me it appears that we have not yet gained a full understanding of the way the Carbon Cycle (or significant rapid alterations within it) manifest in the global climate. We have a broad understanding of what we must expect due to the physical properties of the GHG's within the Carbon Cycle but the way such impacts bleed into the climate system ?

We are also only now investigating how rapidly todays changes impact upon other 'stored' carbon across the globe (Carbon that has effectively been locked out of the system) that is not 'included in our estimations of future CO2/Methane/nitrous Oxide atmospheric levels.

I cannot understand why such is not cause for concern and can be debated as a 'none thing'?

[loafer]

Are we only now investigating? I thought "the science was settled"?

I think the reason people are reacting against your posts is because the stories they quote vary so much in quality - some are fascinating and very worrisome from a science perspective whilst others are spin/lobbyism of the worst kind.

Perhaps you need more quality control?

[Gray-Wolf]

I must not have made myself as clear as I might have?

My understanding is that we 'know' what is in store but we are unclear as to how this will unfold in terms of speed and impacts?

For example , we knew the Arctic sea ice would melt out , we'd even plotted a nice smooth descent into season ice there. All of a sudden , 'boom' . We get the massive ice losses of the 80's ( winter Exports from Fram?) and so the timings were thrown into doubt. We reassessed and then 'Boom' we get the perfect storm impacting the depleted ice volume and we get the lowest extent recorded. Yup ,we knew the ice would go , nope ,we'd not got the 'how's quite together.

It is the same with the way the GHG's will warm the planet? We know they will warm our world but we do not know enough about how we can expect the planets own systems to accommodate this warming nor do we know how the current warming will impact other dormant GHG's which could exacerbate the rate and extent of the predicted warming. Again, we know this will occur just not how.

Please remember these are 'My' understandings of how things are.

[jethro]

But if you were writing a novel about climate change, all that we actually KNOW would fill no more than the introduction. All too often the chapters are filled in with stuff we don't know, stuff that is supposition, and then topped off with a final chapter and conclusion - we still need to check the introduction is right before moving on to the bits in the middle, as for the final chapter, well I don't expect we'll know any of that in my lifetime.

[pottyprof]

But if you were writing a novel about climate change

Oh the temptation... I........................ m u s t...... resist... I... must......

[Gray-Wolf]

Once upon a funny time........

There was a kingdom divided, some would side one way and others, being others , would side another way.

A long while back all the people of that world saw things in much the same light, the world was the centre of things and , to some ,Flat.

Over time the planet spun on and the people grew in their knowledge and power to manipulate their world ( for their own benefit ), the only thing being the price of that 'advancement' on the world that they depended upon.

To some the price was a small thing, the 'natural system' was that which drove all of the changes to be seen in the Gig ( and if not those on planet then , as an added extra, off world drivers would over-ride the natural), others worried that the 'extras' , on-world, that they were adding into the natural system would cause the old order to be 'overwritten' by the new 'additions' into that order.

Neither side would give an inch to the other side, the 'no worries' would slag off the 'concerned' for their lack of 100% surety of their 'proof' of impacts and the 'concerned' could not understand why such a wealth of continuing confirmations to the impacts that the 'additions' were obviously having would not be cause for concern in any rational soul.

So the standoff continued, month upon month , year upon year, still the planet continued to change, still the argument continued until , one day both sides looked up and saw that it was far to late to alter a future they had once the chance to impact, a future that could have been a happy ending yet instead it stared at them, dry and bloody eyed, crying WHY DID YOU NOT ACT?

Following the decline of those wise souls the Northern Europeans grew in influence and power, they discovered how to smelt cast iron on an industrial scale and devised means of transporting it around their world......they cared little for those civilisations that arose before and how they failed and fell back into barbarism.......

Oh P.P. , seize the day!

[jethro]

I prefer the original version of that tale.....

http://deoxy.org/emperors.htm

[knocker]

Widespread Public Misperception about Scientific Agreement on Global Warming Undermines Climate Policy Support

FAIRFAX, Va.-People who believe there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about global warming tend to be less certain that global warming is happening and less supportive of climate policy, researchers at George Mason, San Diego State, and Yale Universities report in a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

A recent survey of climate scientists conducted by researchers at the University of Illinois found near unanimous agreement among climate scientists that human-caused global warming is happening.

This new George Mason University study, however, using results from a national survey of the American public, finds that many Americans believe that most climate scientists actually disagree about the subject.

http://eagle.gmu.edu/newsroom/892/

[Alan Robinson]

In the BBC news this evening;

I cannot conceive the poor quality of this report, what on earth is the message?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15836202

[jethro]

Given the propensity for most Americans to look no further than their own back yard, I'm not sure I'd listen to their opinion on anything.

[jethro]

Sadly Dr. Zbigniew Jaworowski died unexpectedly on November 12th; although a multi-disciplined scientist he was perhaps best known in the climate world for his work on historical CO2 levels. Here is his last published interview from earlier this year:

http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles_2010/Jaworowski_interview.pdf

[jethro]

The energy companies have years of reaping vast rewards and profits, clearly do little or nothing to invest in the future, now we're finally beginning to face up to a future of dwindling fossil fuel supplies and the need to develop alternatives, and we all have to pay for their short-sighted profligacy.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2065360/Expect-gas-price-rises-warns-Energy-Minister-Huhne-insists-government-pin-increase.html

[Alan Robinson]

Sadly Dr. Zbigniew Jaworowski died unexpectedly on November 12th; although a multi-disciplined scientist he was perhaps best known in the climate world for his work on historical CO2 levels. Here is his last published interview from earlier this year:

http://www.21stcentu...i_interview.pdf

I have to say that an 82 year-old person of his undoubted academic standing has no need to perpetuate lies right up to his death. If we can say nothing else of Jaworowski, his criticisms of the AGW theory were heartfelt; and despite petty webistes trying to smear Jaworowski's reputation, my view is that he was never proven wrong, just ignored because of money.

Jaworowski's death is a setback for modern climate science.

The energy companies have years of reaping vast rewards and profits, clearly do little or nothing to invest in the future, now we're finally beginning to face up to a future of dwindling fossil fuel supplies and the need to develop alternatives, and we all have to pay for their short-sighted profligacy.

http://www.dailymail...n-increase.html

Yes, but I am actually interested to see as North Sea industrial sites cease to produce, to what extent the corporations respect and live up to the agreements made when they were allowed to extract these natural resources in the first place, decades ago; namely clean up after themselves to the extent nobody could see on the sea bed they had been there.

I am pretty much convinced that the floor of the North Sea soon looks like a junk-yard. Are we really to believe that pipelines will be taken up again? That huge concrete blocks will be removed?

It is all very well people telling me that nobody can see the floor of the North Sea, so what does it matter. But the fact is it does matter. Shoddy sealing of wells can lead to pollution, and obstacles on the sea bed can cost fishermen their lives. In any case, why should people be let off meeting the very obligations they agreed to years ago, now they have reaped the profits they wanted?

Edited November 24, 2011 by Alan Robinson